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Matthias Waldhauer

Matthias Waldhauer
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  • Advanced Micro Devices Is A Speculative 'Buy' [View article]
    I think, 'speculative' in this regard refers to the possibility to earn money by trading the stock price movements.

    A different form of investment is to invest over a long period of time to receive the dividends.
    Dec 10, 2013. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Advanced Micro Devices Survive The Declining PC Market? [View article]
    It came to my mind that a node switch in console business is less of a risk as in PC business, because for the console they can still use the mature process and do a slow ramp. This assumes a constant console SoC feature set as in the past.

    This already answers your question about software compatibility. There should be no problem with it, since at the architecture level (CPU ISA, GPU ISA, control registers) there should be no change, if they handle it like in the past. If they plan to increase GPU performance by adding shaders, ROPs, etc., there's also no risk.

    Process nodes have no direct influence on ISA compatibility.
    Oct 1, 2013. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Advanced Micro Devices Survive The Declining PC Market? [View article]
    In the past the price drops were related to lower costs in manufacturing (incl. the other components). And the same can be expected for the next gen consoles.

    As AMD said in their CC, the SoC prices for the next years are set in stone. Putting their given numbers into my calculations (no, not Trefis) resulted in ~15% GM for the near time frame. Later this could improve depending on the yield learning curve and wafer price changes, and of course with new process nodes. So it should mean something for AMDs margins in the future.
    Sep 30, 2013. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Advanced Micro Devices Survive The Declining PC Market? [View article]
    Revenues can't be predicted that easily. E. g. PS3 price dropped by $100 in the year after launch and was only half of the original price 3 years after launch, when PS3 slim hit the market.

    Further the initial bad press of the XBox One, its price (despite less powerful GPU) and likely other factors lead to a currently reported pre-order ratio of 2:1 in favor of the PS4.
    Sep 27, 2013. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD slumps following chip delay report [View news story]
    After writing this, $INTC went up by 15c later in the day maybe due to the emotion sensing tech news, which appeared at that time.

    $NVDA did not recover as $AMD, and so both GPU manufacturers had similar moves intraday. I don't just look at the daily percent move.
    Sep 1, 2013. 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD slumps following chip delay report [View news story]
    I really don't like those news, where the author searched for some reason to explain a single company's move in the market, which is nothing else than caused by the company's beta. Todays move in $INTC or $NVDA look rather similar. So why should $INTC drop due to any rumoured AMD's APU delays?

    The actual reason is Syria.
    Aug 27, 2013. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
    There are 4 different 28 nm process variants.
    Apr 26, 2013. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Does Something Incredibly Right [View article]
    The Jaguar cores aren't just a shrink (doubling the FPU width to 128 bit should be enough to disqualify this). According to first leaked benchmarks, it looks like AMD didn't claim too much. They for example said, the Jaguar core would have ~15% higher IPC and ~10% higher clock frequency - at the same process. The 28nm process is on top of that.

    And not to forget: there will be Jaguar quad cores with faster GPU and included FCH (additional chip for Bobcat).

    Could you imagine this being possible just with a Bobcat shrink and inclusion of the FCH?
    GX-420CA: Quad-core, 25W TDP, CPU freq. 2.0GHz, GPU freq. 600MHz
    GX-415GA: Quad-core, 15W TDP, CPU freq. 1.50GHz, GPU freq. 500MHz

    And what effect would you expect from providing a tenfold memory bandwidth?

    BTW, flash or many tabs regularly seem to be too much for my i7-2620M. A result of not enough support of multiple cores in Firefox or Flash as it seems.

    On a E-350 machine (bobcat) I sometimes play CS:GO against a friend.
    Apr 26, 2013. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices' Latest Servers: Powered By Intel [View article]
    Azazel, before Jaguar has been finalized, the chief architect of Bobcat, Brad Burgess, left to Samsung. It doesn't look like this did any harm to Jaguar. CPU development is overlapped and there are multiple phases. While one chief architect brings its architecture to market, another one is already working on the successor of that chip. And after one leaves (BTW - what are Samsung and Apple doing with all those talents?), there are tens or hundreds of people who learned from that chief developer over a course of several years.

    But what does Opteron have to do with Intel CPUs in SeaMicro servers? If AMD doesn't lose sales due to being able to offer the better CPU option. As you know, the Xeons are build using a more advanced process and are very power efficient in many tasks.
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices' Latest Servers: Powered By Intel [View article]
    See my post below. The Atom boxes already sold for $300+ per Atom core.
    Mar 5, 2013. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices' Latest Servers: Powered By Intel [View article]
    Using Intel CPUs is just another step in using external technology compared to develop CPUs/APUs in house and let them be fabbed at external foundries like Globalfoundries and TSMC. GF should have more than 60% tools and fabs financed by ATIC by now.

    In house development means R&D costs, while any GM added to COGS also stays fully in house. OTOH "external development" (when buying Intel CPUs) avoids the R&D costs, but reduces the margin which can be added to the buying prices of those CPUs.

    So far I didn't see anyone going bankrupt by selling $200+ CPUs in boxes containing 64 or more of them and adding 10% to 20% to each one. ;)

    I don't know what the Xeon based boxes cost, but when SM offered Atom based servers, they didn't cost little money:
    "An original SM10000 server with 512 cores and 1TB of main memory cost $139,000. The bump up to the 64-bit Atom N570 for 512 cores and the same 1TB of memory boosted the price to $165,000. A 768-core, 1.5TB machine using the new 64HD cards will run you $237,000. That's 50 per cent more oomph and memory for 43.6 per cent more money."

    That's $300+ per Atom core incl. memory, fiber etc.
    Mar 4, 2013. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After visiting Silicon Valley chipmakers, Canaccord's Bobby Burleson believes the recent selloff in chip stocks is overdone. While admitting demand is soft for the PC and wireline telecom markets, total orders, buoyed by healthy smartphone/tablet demand, are said to be in-line with expectations. Burleson's top picks are AMD, BRCM, IDTI, and MRVL.  [View news story]
    @"User 2453701":

    INTC was over $70 at that time too. "Some" remember it as the dot com bubble.

    I'd like to hear how AMD was rated EPS wise back then by the analysts or buyers to justify ~$25B market cap it had at $40. Since it depends on a few products, it should be clear, that its success and thus EPS should be very volatile. The last years before 2000 it had losses while in 2000 revenue and net income shot up (+60% rev, nearly $1B net income). If that would have continued, the share price would have been OK. But who would believe a $4.6B revenue company to grow 60% each year? And all that heavily was dependent on a single CPU's success in desktops. Mobile, server, chipsets were not worth speaking about back then.

    Now AMD has fast and efficient discrete mobile, desktop GPUs, has desktop, desktop, mobile, server CPUs based on 2 base architectures, has up to date chipsets (USB3, SATA 6G etc.), gets increased software support (OpenCL, CPU compilers), and HSA.

    But it was bad that they sold their handheld GPU division.
    Jun 4, 2012. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • STMicro Looks Fairly Valued, We Prefer Intel's Yield Profile [View article]
    The image showing range of potential outcomes is IMO an oversimplified use of a normal distribution, since it even shows a probability greater than zero for prices below $0.
    Apr 4, 2012. 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's long-term strategy for challenging Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA): Using the graphics capabilities of chips based on its Fusion platform not just for typical graphics-related tasks, but to assist in computing tasks. However, the first chips supporting this capability aren't expected to be out until "somewhere in the 2013 time frame."  [View news story]
    AMD is already selling Ontario and Llano APUs. Channel Register wrote about the next graphics core, which is even better suited for general purpose computing (like Nvidia's Fermi or Kepler).
    Jul 7, 2011. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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