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Dan65

Dan65
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  • New Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd plans to discard the country's carbon tax and introduce a less costly floating price emissions-trading system by July 1, 2014, a year earlier than planned. The scrapping of the tax, which was a flagship policy of ousted PM Julia Gillard, is expected to lower government revenues by several billion dollars, so it will have to cut costs to compensate. Companies that could be affected include Peabody Energy (BTU), BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO) and Glencore (GLCNF.PK). [View news story]
    flat earth society?, didn't they disappear a few centuries ago? What does that make you?
    A shill and a propagandist for taxes to fix the problem? LOL.
    400 ppm and so? what are you trying to say?
    Jul 14, 2013. 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disturbing Trend In Growth From January Jobs Report [View article]
    yes mostly from anecdotal personal experience with a recent H.S grad who in the late summer was able to get overtime pay and hours 40+ at one employer. Around October, articles started appearing about restaurants cutting back hours to experiment with part time workers. Simulataneously said HS grad started working at two different locales for up to 70 hours per week, no overtime pay mind you either. Now she is down to 30 hours +/- not sure this, happens to be a Dunkin Donut franchisee is trying to expand to another branch a few miles away. What happens when he says that he can't have more than 50 full time employees, and faces extra taxes? So much for the home of the free and ambition in Obamas' Amerika, France has similar labor laws. No wonder Democrats can't keep absolute power for more than a couple years, and to think they could be back in power due to demographics. eeekkkk.
    Feb 3, 2013. 06:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
    going for indefinite until unemployment is such and such, throughout December to "several" with more than a couple arguing for above .25-.63" in 2013 revealed today. Nothing to see here for more than a day with the doves out in force tomorrow. All it takes is less than QE4 eternity to suggest there is conjecture of tightening, what is left if not prolonging it to absurd lengths or until all the rotten location real estate is back to pre bubble highs? I think not.
    The real pop corn eating event will be next week when the ECB has their meeting and whether they decide on more easing. That strong Euro is so productive, doh! Not so much.
    Jan 3, 2013. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Update: Walking The Recession Plank [View article]
    If the US has escaped recession, then it has indeed decoupled from Europe and their awful PMIs and mostly negative GDP readings. Employment, unemployment rate? BLS NFP print? is up according to the above charts while the participation rate is down according to other sources.
    I appreciate your analysis of the ECRI published weekly indicators. The above mentioned points are my issues with the other charts used. Just getting fed up with all lack of harmony with the data points save for the concurrent ones. About the only positive thing I take from ECRI lately is that the government does revise the GDP for years after the initial readings and that recessions will be more frequent, like once every 4 years -/+ .
    As far as the more interesting points that could be made is comparing raw numbers to "seasonally adjusted numbers," there seems to be recent disconnects there as well. Hurricane Sandy didn't affect the unemployment rate? Really?, sorry this reader calls "fishy" on the latest NFP report and that point re: the latest print.
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Update: More Recession Flag Waving [View article]
    There's the ECRI divergence and then there is the near universal news people and even politicians still calling this a recession even though GDP is still positive. ECRIs coincident indicator contradicts IBDs articles on income in that there has been about a 4k decline per annum decline in income since Obama took office (I don't have the link handy), not a peak in personal income that this chart implies. Note also that AL also says that is wont be obvious until like about now that we went into recession back in July. If we use the start of the decline, to date a recession, such as earnings then, well that happened a while ago. The only thing I really took away from this whole recession call is to never trade based on a ECRI recession call, too many rallies in the mean time and too much dependence on the central bankers to print that levitates this market well since all of the last year and shortly after ECRI made their call with LTRO etc. Nice analysis of the whole debate with ECRI, a maddening situation if one is to be naive to believe in their 100% call but then those GDP numbers will revised later anyway for a while.
    Dec 11, 2012. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Policy Mix And The Unavoidable QE3 [View article]
    "US policy mix will contractionary next year"-
    with the USA borrowing 40-50+ % of funds the last four years, the Fed and Congress has no choice but to reduce spending. With half the people not contributing income taxes,- note other taxes are contributed aka fuel tax, capital gains, if you get a tan you pay the Caucasian tax thanks to the Affordable Care Act, cigarette and cigar taxes etc.
    Why isn't the Fed recommending lowering the minimum wage since it the unemployment rate has steadily climbed since the minimum wage hike in 2007? Disability rolls has gone steadily up. Fed QE3 ad nauseum only benefits who? commodity and bank traders in the face of dire talk across the pond, the Euro's end is near and the LTRO is counter productive for shoring up a banks reserve requirements. QE3 jilted lovers need to look at a broader picture and realize that bond buying does what what in particular for an economy when bond buying is already indicative of some sort of very nasty event indeed.
    Jul 7, 2012. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Research Institute's WLI Growth: 23-Week High [View article]
    You all need to look at the free videos of the ECRI recession call from the fall again. One of them states that it will take 6 months for the recession to show. Germany and Brazil already have a contraction in q4. WLI is not the only that ECRI uses. The original recession call describes a "contagion of deterioration" in its indicators. Yes there are positive developments in US data lately and in manufacturing in particular. Consider that we had a warm January and the GDP was barely positive without the inventory buildup. The Dec ECRI Bloomberg interview points to the role of wages on the GDP #. Spending for retail over Christmas fell y-y. Just as many earnings surprises as misses. I wouldn't bet against ECRI with indexes up against prior highs from last year. And gas is at $3.50 again. Sentiment is up as high as it was last year as well. LoL with ECRI needing to reverse its recession call.
    Feb 11, 2012. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged For 7 Weeks [View article]
    We've got record profits in the latest quarter and yet Brazil has already had a quarter of contraction of.4% GDP growth, China's news is filled with ghost condo stories, even Germans are expecting a rough year after recording record employment just this last quarter. There is no talk of growth in Europe, only austerity, and tax rate rises. Unemployment would be 11% here if the labor participation rate was the same as 2007, and local taxes if not Federal taxes are going up. i.e. property and the like. The USD being down to $1.30 from 1.50 last April is not going to help the profit picture. Its tough to believe the ECRI at this point, but Obamacare is not helping the jobs picture, unless speculation that Obamacare will be overturned in the spring to summer is helping. I thought -10 on WLI was critica mass which was hit recently. Dodd Frank, and Basel and the Eurozone seems to be on a endless horror spin cycle, seeing any thing other than higher volatility for the year seems impossibe now.
    Jan 2, 2012. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Movers: The Real Reason Markets Got Crushed [View article]
    What is worst is that the Japanese have intervened in the currency market, which is a tacit admission that current USD/JPY rates are hurting Japan as well. Was S&P helpful in this regard, maybe leading to higher 10 year rates in US leads to higher USD/JPY strength, and hence more USD strength. A shot across the bow of the US Fed to use more QE. But is Bernanke headstrong, daft enough take your pick to see the writing on the wall of "NO MORE QE>" that would weaken the USD? So now we have European, American and now Japanese economic issues, Chinese? as well?
    Aug 7, 2011. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Interest Rate Hike Closer to Eurogeddon [View article]
    so many issues in the Eurozone, Greeks income tax 18% +, VAT on everything at 23%? keeping the family dynasty of Socialists, Some Europeans who are doing everything in their power to keep the Euro, a couple Germans + the 60 % of Germans who don't want to violate their own law by bailing anyone out. The Chinese who complain about American currency values but support the Euro tightrope walking currency union. The Euro only goes down when? If this market isn't a Euro bubble I don't know what is. Bernanke can only keep rates at zero for as far as he can see. What would happen if Bernanke raised rates lets say on par to the Eurozone? The markets woud dump their carry trades with stocks with them, but I don't think Bernanke knows that. Lot of chicken or the egg questions can be raised here.
    Jul 10, 2011. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Dollar Is More Vulnerable Than the Euro [View article]
    Der Spiegel excellent "Euro Crisis" highlights a lawmaker who is starting to get a following, though he may not have enough votes as yet to deny further German funding of the next Greek bailout that 60 % of the Germans oppose. The Lisbon Treaty and the German Constitution forbid the bailouts and the German high court is taking up a complaint against the bailouts as well. We have checks and balances, Europe has bureaucrats who have run amok over their own laws. Our debasement of currency via government spending through QE3 will not revived again. Athens News is reporting the Greek banks will be worse off with the most recent French plan. It really is time to cut loose the countries who should never have been allowed to have the Euro in the first place. So what happens if the Eurozone can't find the private the investors that they need as soon as the July 11th? The Euro will be kapoot, but they may delay the decision like they did last weekend, so the Euro bubble can keep going for another weekend, the Euro has a sucking chest wound, and the Euro is superman with nine lives only the PIIGS are becoming its kryptonite.
    Jul 7, 2011. 09:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Dollar Is More Vulnerable Than the Euro [View article]
    Der Spiegel excellent "Euro Crisis" highlights a lawmaker who is starting to get a following, though he may not have enough votes as yet to deny further German funding of the next Greek bailout that 60 % of the Germans oppose. The Lisbon Treaty and the German Constitution forbid the bailouts and the German high court is taking up a complaint against the bailouts as well. We have checks and balances, Europe has bureaucrats who have run amok over their own laws. Our debasement of currency via government spending has come to an end. Athens News is reporting the Greek banks will be worse off with the most recent French plan. It really is time to cut loose the countries who should never have been allowed to have the Euro in the first place.
    Jul 7, 2011. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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