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agelston

agelston
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  • Finding Green Dividend Yield [View article]
    Excellent article. Rare to see comparable graphs used so well.

    I would only add that the management team (whom I was fortunately enough to meet) is very passionate about improving energy efficiency and renewables. This is intangible and seemingly expected, but since it is necessary for their success, it is worth mentioning.

    I own HASI common, since mid January.


    For those in the energy space, CCJ is another very interesting candidate for long term investment at the moment.
    Feb 17 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity, Crowdfunding And 1 Million Customers [View article]
    "SolarCity will require $18.3 B of capital to reach its million-customer goal."

    This is incorrect. You forget two things, the investment tax credit and the benefits of accelerated depreciation.

    Also, Solar Cities installation costs are closer to $4/W currently.

    Read: http://qr.ae/Gb4Em
    Jan 22 09:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Isn't Disruptive Nor Will It Be The Next Apple [View article]
    I stopped reading here

    "Tesla or at least Elon Musk did suggest that they were working on making their cars work on autopilot. This is short of the full automation that you get with Google's (GOOG) self driving cars and any rate has nothing to do with electric vehicle technology, Tesla's core competency."

    Elon Musk is the CTO of SpaceX, which has developed autopilot ROCKETS AND SPACECRAFT. AUTOPILOT LANDING ROCKET, unprecendented at the scale. Almost entirely autopilot spacecraft, checking in peroidically for go/no go confirmation. Just like the system he is proposing (90%) will likely work.

    The fact that the author does not know that Elon Musk DEFINITELY has this core competency shows he did not fully research Tesla.
    Nov 5 12:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On The Mosaic/CF Industries Deal [View article]
    Not a very high premium on the options either
    Nov 1 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: A Black Box Of Mystery [View article]
    This article describes why the Solar Sector is riding so high this week. I'd be curious to what you think of it (author).

    http://bit.ly/19Rqxk6

    Very well written and reasonable article, compliments. However, I would not be shorting any company in the Solar sector just yet. It is on the precipice of incredibly growth.

    SCTY is just riding with the sector, outpreforming slightly due to Elon Musk Hype. And shorting a Musk premium has proven disasterious before.
    Oct 18 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Flawed Accounting Leads To Overstated Profitability In Mature Cohorts [View article]
    Getting crushed after hours as well. Glad I opened a starter put position. Too bad the premiums aren't cheap, but it makes sense.

    ANGI is a worthless buisiness, terrible model. It is unlikely to be bought out for users like other unprofitable web services.

    The daily chart is also now a disaster. Textbook double top.

    Only have a quarter position, will add through earnings [early next week].
    Jul 18 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: A Look At The Numbers [View article]
    Lots of calls bought on the ask today. Not huge volume but definitely noteworthy. Many near the money July expiry.

    Total volume wasn't anything usual though

    http://bit.ly/1aP8I9y
    Jun 26 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: A Look At The Numbers [View article]
    The Canadian deal was unsolicited. They were approached.

    But yah, its a possibility. Another sign could be the longstanding CEOs recent retirement.
    Jun 26 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: A Look At The Numbers [View article]
    Also noteworthy that the short interest data (released today) shows an INCREASE in short interest as of June 14th. About another million shares shorted, as of post Canadian Sale news (although that only includes one trading day).

    Stock price driven back down to the highest open interest july call strike (24). All in line with a controled sell off to shake out some speculators. http://bit.ly/1ckCFw8

    The question is, when do the shorts start to cover. I doubt they want to keep paying the dividend or risk the ER.

    Newest data avalible here (WSJ). SWY 26th most shorted stock
    http://bit.ly/10jOlgD

    Historical Data
    http://bit.ly/10jOlgG
    Jun 25 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: A Look At The Numbers [View article]
    http://bit.ly/12i3mAc

    (250*1.8+500*6.25+303*...
    weighted average 3.45%

    Yup your right, good point. Thought it was higher. That does include their lowest yielding debt though, alot of their other notes are much higher yielding. And it doesn't count the full extent of the debt they plan to pay back(2.8).

    Are you long common or with options? the yield is high enough that i'm considering just holding common after the ER, normally i roll butterfly calendar spreads but its a pretty low priced stock (relative to what i've been trading) so comission are going to get costly.
    Jun 25 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar City (SCTY) - The Emperor('S Cousins) Have No Clothes [View instapost]
    Actually, Tesla motors hasn't actually put any solar panels up on their Supercharger stations. They intend to, but have not yet. Visit one.
    Jun 25 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar City (SCTY) - The Emperor('S Cousins) Have No Clothes [View instapost]
    This research piece is astrondingly good. You almost made me change my mind, and I've loved SCTY since the low 20s. Made a killing and sold in the 40s, was considering getting back in, but now am going to hold off.
    Jun 25 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway: A Look At The Numbers [View article]
    Nice article, I completely agree.

    One small thing you should correct, safeway is planning on paying down 2.8 Billion in debt, not 2.25. (2bill from canadian sale + 800M from proceeds on blackhawk IPO). You can check their most recent 8k, Question1. http://1.usa.gov/11YHWUo

    These savings will not hugely impact your model (maye 70m/year rather then 50) but the further debt reduction does vastly improve their balance sheet, which is what was scaring me away pre-sale annoucement.


    Before the Canadian deal, there was no compeling fundmental bull case for Safeway. Massive debt coupled with competition and seemingly irresponsible buybacks raised huge red flags for me.

    However, most of Safeways current financial stats are outdated, the company is dramatically repositioning its balance sheet in the short/mid term and focusing on their core business. The IPO of blackhawk was timed perfect, retention of a 78% stake gives Safeway oppertunity to raise more funds in 2ndaries. The seemingly irresponsible buybacks over the last few quarters now seem farsighted and added to shareholder value. They will be paying down high yield debt, further improving net income.

    But most importantly, at today's prices, safeway is trading significantly under book value. You are essentially buying the income from operations for absolutely nothing and prime US retail property at 80 cents on the dollar. Even if they face margin pressure, the income from US operations is all upside. They could literally liquidate the company at the end of this year and pay out about 26$/share (US property+cash from sale - debt obligations). Very little risk buying at these levels, even with intense competitive pressures.

    The spike on the buyout news was rational. The selloff after the buyout news was also rational, the market was simply shaking out the foolish who immediately bought on the news. Stock quickly dropped and retested recent lows, bouncing off them. I'm not a huge technical guy but this one is so freaking obvious. http://bit.ly/11YHWUq

    I bought in yesterday morning

    Very bullish. I own July 23 strike calls, with the intent of exercising, and a small position ($ terms, many contracts) in July 26 strike calls as a earnings lotto position. The July calls expire the day after the ER, cheap lotto tickets.
    Jun 25 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway Update: After Canadian Sale, The Remaining Company Is Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks for the article, very well written.

    Bought some ITM calls with exercise intent.
    Jun 24 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why This Long-Time SolarCity Bull Is Nervous [View article]
    As another bull since the teens, I agree with this article.

    What got me concerned recently was the obvious effect of SCTYs last run on a penny stock, RSOL. Things got out of control, to the point of effecting other securities.

    http://on.mktw.net/11i...


    Either the entire market has turned bullish on solar suddenly or SCTY bubbled the solar industry by itself
    Jun 5 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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