Seeking Alpha

Brett22

Brett22
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Brett22's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Celsion: 50% Downside After The HEAT Trial Failed [View article]
    I honestly cannot believe that people trade on this kind of rubbish. So transparent that this is s short seller looking to make a quick buck from weak handed investors. I'll stay long based on what a college buddy who is a doctor at Leahy clinic told me about the upside potential of CLSN in their liver transplant unit.
    Jun 11 06:25 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) now says 12,500 barrels of oil and water have been recovered from a pipeline that ruptured Friday in Arkansas. Predictably, the spill has turned into political fodder for opponents of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Massachusetts Democrat Ed Markey says the Arkansas spill demonstrates "that transporting large amounts of this corrosive and polluting fuel is a bad deal for American taxpayers." [View news story]
    Ed Markey is a headline grabbing hack who, like other uber liberals, is anti anything fossil fuel. He was a huge supporter of battery maker A123 and look how that turned out (US taxpayers gave millions of subsidies, the company went bankrupt and then the technology was purchased on the cheap by our friends the Chinese; sounds like a great deal huh?).
    Mar 31 05:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's a pattern here: China's "State Administration for Industry and Commerce" has mentioned Apple (AAPL -2.1%) in a notice urging authorities to protect consumer rights. The notice comes shortly after a front-page column in a state-owned newspaper and an "investigative special" from a state-owned TV channel took shots at Apple[View news story]
    Reportedly, China Mobile wanted a piece of Apple's app store revenues to make a deal happen and Apple said no to this unreasonable request. So, sounds like the government has taken to various underhanded tactics to try and damage Apple. Since Apple indirectly employs MANY Chinese at the Foxconn factories in China, it would be nice if Apple could move production to other countries and give the Chinese the middle finger on the way out of the country.

    This type of stuff, along with fabricated economic data, is a reason why I will never invest in Chinese companies or international ETFs/Funds that have Chinese exposure.
    Mar 28 06:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fisker Automotive, the struggling government-backed hybrid sports car maker, terminates 75% of its staff in what sources said was a last-ditch effort to conserve cash and stave off a potential bankruptcy filing. The company, which raised $1.2B from investors and tapped nearly $200M in government loans, has only around $30M in cash remaining. About 160 workers were fired at a Friday morning meeting at its Anaheim, Calif., headquarters, and were told that the company couldn't afford to give them severance payments. [View news story]
    Hope and Change!
    Apr 5 10:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: The Roller Coaster Continues And New Lows Should Not Be Ruled Out [View article]
    Well said. I like the risk/reward for HK here and added significantly today. Further weakness will not surprise nor disappoint me as this is a long term holding. Made a small fortune with Floyd in the past when lots of naysayers existed so I follow the money and see lots of insiders buying HK. Enough said.
    Nov 13 04:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon gets bearish Barron's treatment [View news story]
    Used to order a lot from Amazon because it was easy an prices were often reasonable. Sales tax now being charged on all purchases and we never buy anything from Amazon; a couple more key strokes through the find.com, google shopping, shopwiki or several other sites and we can find what we want tax FREE. Checkout even easier by using Paypal and avoiding having to enter personal data. When people realize the Amazon business model is broken, the stock cratering will be a great business school case study.
    Oct 5 10:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Speculative Energy Concerns For Under $5 [View article]
    Very long HK-just stick with your position as large holders trade out and bring price down to these levels. The CEO, Floyd Wilson, is a very experienced oil man and knows how to deliver the goods.
    Sep 19 06:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hisun Pharmaceutical Doubles Down On Celsion [View article]
    Been long on this since $1.25 and I'm not selling anytime soon. Follow the money both from this investment and Sabby Capital's investment earlier in the summer at $1.75is. Sabby does not invest in this type of company unless they think they can get a 400% return and they made the investment after a LOT of diligence. If nothing else, one of the big pharma companies could take out CLSN and use their delivery method and patents with a future drug. Similar to MNKD, this could make a huge run once the positive news accumulates.
    Jul 19 03:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy (LINE -18.5%) and LinnCo (LNCO -16.9%) slump to session lows in the wake of the informal SEC inquiry and subsequent J.P. Morgan downgrade. Also issuing a downgrade, Wells Fargo believes the Linn structure, in and of itself, is not under scrutiny, but says investors may discount the possibility that the Berry (BRY) merger unravels given the inquiry which could take one to four months to complete. [View news story]
    How about Leon Cooperman who was on CNBC last week telling the flock that Omega had "3 different accounting firms separately analyze LINE's accounting and there are no issues" when Leon defended Omega's large LINE position. More pain to come in this name. Makes me also skeptical of TCRD which Leon tried to talk up multiple times but has not traded well over the past month. Buyer beware.
    Jul 2 02:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix Worth No More Than $8, Likely Headed To $0 [View article]
    At a large social event today, I ran into a guy who manages a long only fund and I asked if he was investing in Ebix & what he thought about the past week's news. The guy had a position in 2012 but no Ebix position now or in upcoming months since the Investment Committee would never approve an Ebix position today as too many risks where you "can go to be with a $14 stock and wake up with a $6 stock".

    Said that the initial stock plunge was largely due to massive exits by long arbitrage guys once deal termination was announced (they had taken big positions expecting either a) Goldman to up the offer in light of suits related to what was perceived as a low buyout price of $20/share or b) another acquirer to top the GS $20 price) Second leg down Friday was largely due to funds that are concerned about further losses and don't want Ebix to show as a holding as of 6/30/13 when the quarter closes so they dumped shares. There are still a lot of "longs" trapped in the name and when they better understand the risks, there will be a few more big down days before the stock trades sideways. No other acquirer is anywhere in sight and the company will need to "go it alone" until it sorts out some major issues.

    Things people should consider (some related to original author, but I would discount much of what this blatant short seller says just because his bias is so obvious):

    -The free cash flow estimates that bulls crow about do not include outflows required to get current with Microsoft licensing nor do they include the huge legal fees related to the MSFT suit. When you have litigators and IP attorneys billing out $700/hr it adds up fast.

    -Free cash flow estimates don't include legal costs and potential fines related to the US attorney suit. Biggest wildcard in all of the major issues.

    -Free cash flow estimates don't include potentially significant costs related to transfer pricing issues. Huge hot topic in Washington and across the world these days; Ebix has adopted one of the most aggressive structures around and the distraction and legal costs related to this will be significant.

    -MOST significant is the potential that the company's revolver and/or other debt could be called due to covenant defaults if the lenders feel they have exposure. If things go bad with the US Attorney, lenders may not want to hang around to see things to the end. Section 5 and 6 of the note agreement (SEC filed version attached) allow the lender to call the debt for a lot of reasons should the US Attorney suit turn out to have merit and get serious. Should that happen, the announced buyback would likely need to be cancelled and the ensuing cash crunch could require a dilutive stock offering or private placement. For the bull case, all should hope that Ebix has good relationships with its lenders and no significant events of default are triggered. If the company's long term debt is classified as "current" the company has a significant working capital deficit with any capital raise events likely to be costly and dilutive.

    http://1.usa.gov/12jXOAM

    Much to much drama for me with this stock and looks like more downside to come so I'm just going to watch from the sidelines unless things approach $5 range. Sounds unlikely but who would think the stock would be at $8 last year at this time.
    Jun 23 09:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money manager and Fox Business contributor Tobin Smith is dumped by the network following a report his firm accepts money from microcap companies to promote their stocks. Smith and friends just pocketed $50K from a stock endorsement for Petrosonic Energy (PSON.OB), a Bulletin Board company that has no revenues - "taking a bag of cash and luring the dumbest, poorest people into losses," Josh Brown says[View news story]
    How about investigating Charles Payne on Fox; constantly pumping these small stocks "his firm likes". Just last month talked up 2 great microcaps Ballard Power and Capstone Turbine; now look at where these trade. Makes you wonder how many others doing the same..
    Jun 18 07:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Democrat Linda Sanchez requests an FTC investigation of Herbalife (HLF) saying that as she has "learned more about the issue from [her] constituents … [she] believes it is the FTC's responsibility to examine allegations" that the company takes unfair advantage of one of the "country's most vulnerable populations." For its part, HLF says had she called the company, it would have explained how its products "change people's lives." [View news story]
    10-1 odds she's peeved that HLF management sick of paying 12% California income tax supported a republican and not the esteemed Ms Sanchez. I want an investigation of all her motivations for asking for this "investigation".
    Jun 13 07:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proceed With Caution With Calumet Specialty Products Partners [View article]
    $CLMT Been looking at this for a while but chart has completely broken down. Numerous downgrades and fact that David Tepper at Appaloosa is trimming his large position makes me think folks know div coverage for next qtr will be bad and/or an offering is in the works. Likely headed below $25 even if overall market is good.
    Sep 26 08:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration talks up auto loan program again [View news story]
    Exactly, typical venture debt would be approx. 10%-12% with warrant coverage around 3%. Was a huge risk that looks good only in hindsight. Time to get government out of what should be private sector only. You'd think this administration would focus on just a few of the more pressing issues.
    Aug 27 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hisun Pharmaceutical Doubles Down On Celsion [View article]
    That perspective would be published by a short that got a little burned today and it hoping to scare people to avoid getting torched in the coming weeks.
    Jul 19 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
83 Comments
110 Likes