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rahul6180
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I have worked in the biotech industry, for the past eight years, in the areas of quality control and method development. Currently, I am taking a break from work to trade full time. I am trading stocks and ETFs. I hope to use this blog as a tool to help me with my trading and provide analysis to... More
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Market Harmony
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  • 10/31/11 Market Update
    The daily chart on the SPY remains in a uptrend, but very volatile (see figure 1). A pull back to the 124 level would not be a bad thing. If the SPY pulls back and then shows some strength it may set up some low risk swing trades. The short term time frame on the SPY is still up (see figure 2). I think on the shorter term time frame, the SPY needs to get above the 127.5 level in order to have a chance of pushing higher. Despite the powerful move in October, it has still been a challenging volatile environment. Today was an example of that, as the market sold of quite hard. I had taken some long side swing trades that I got stopped out of today for some small losses. However due to the volatile nature of this market, the next day could be a great up day and many swing trades could work. Seems that to be successful in this market you need to have an exceptional amount of emotional endurance. This is not the nice QE induced trending markets of '09 and '10. I expect more volatility as it seems traders switch between the 'risk on' trades (equities) and the 'risk off' (US treasuries and the US dollar) depending on the headlines of the day. I plan on being very selective in my trades and trading much smaller share size than I normally would if I felt we were in a low risk swing trading environment.

    Rahul Parikh
    marketharmony.blogspot.com/

    Tags: SPY, US dollar, US treasuries, SPY
    Oct 31 8:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 10/24/11 Market Update

    The SPY has broken through the 122 level is is looking quite strong on the daily chart. I have been reluctant to trade long side swing trades, because this market has broken out in the past and quickly reversed hard back into the range. I wanted to give the market some time to prove itself and avoid a quick reversal. Ideally I would like to see a pullback to 122 and then buy as the market regains strength. Another scenario I will be looking for is for the market to move through the 126 resistance level convincingly. If either of these two scenarios happen I am going to take some long side swing trades and see if they hold up. Another positive sign I am seeing now is that the 50 DMA (red) now has a positive slope. On previous breaks of the 122 level that moving average was declining. 
     
     
    There is no guarantee of what the market is going to do next. Trading is about positioning yourself when you determine the probability to be in your favor. There is always risk. At least for the time being, the risk looks mitigated, especially if the 122 level holds.


    Rahul Parikh
    marketharmony.blogspot.com/
    Tags: SPY, stock market, technicals, SPY
    Oct 24 5:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • An Emotional Market



    Despite the run up last week I still find this to be a challenging market. I prefer not to trade, or trade much more cautiously, when markets are at emotional extremes. We saw a similar situation in the Panic of '08 when the market took a nosedive and investors rushed to US treasuries (see Figure 1). The market has struggled over the last few months and we see a similar situation with money moving into US Treasuries. Last week we did start to see money move out of treasuries and back into stocks. The TLT (US treasury ETF) went to a high of 125 and has currently sold off to 114. Perhaps fear in the market is starting to subside. The SPY is currently at the top of it's trading range (see Figure 2). If we can break above and hold above 122 on the SPY it could make for an environment where long side swing trades offer  a reasonable risk to reward ratio.


    Rahul Parikh
    marketharmony.blogspot.com/
    Tags: SPY, TLT, US Treasury, stock market, technicals
    Oct 16 5:50 PM | Link | Comment!
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