rahul6180's Instablog I have worked in the biotech industry, for the past eight years, in the areas of quality control and method development. Currently, I am taking a break from work to trade full time. I am trading stocks and ETFs. I hope to use this blog as a tool to help me with my trading and provide analysis to others that are interested in trading the Stock Market. I use a swing trading style. In addition to Economics and the Stock Market, my other interests include American History and photography. rahul6180 http://seekingalpha.com 10/31/11 Market Update http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/232208-10-31-11-market-update?source=feed 232208 The daily chart on the SPY remains in a uptrend, but very volatile (see figure 1). A pull back to the 124 level would not be a bad thing. If the SPY pulls back and then shows some strength it may set up some low risk swing trades. The short term time frame on the SPY is still up (see figure 2). I think on the shorter term time frame, the SPY needs to get above the 127.5 level in order to have a chance of pushing higher. Despite the powerful move in October, it has still been a challenging volatile environment. Today was an example of that, as the market sold of quite hard. I had taken some long side swing trades that I got stopped out of today for some small losses. However due to the volatile nature of this market, the next day could be a great up day and many swing trades could work. Seems that to be successful in this market you need to have an exceptional amount of emotional endurance. This is not the nice QE induced trending markets of '09 and '10. I expect more volatility as it seems traders switch between the 'risk on' trades (equities) and the 'risk off' (US treasuries and the US dollar) depending on the headlines of the day. I plan on being very selective in my trades and trading much smaller share size than I normally would if I felt we were in a low risk swing trading environment.

Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/

]]> Mon, 31 Oct 2011 20:02:50 -0400 The daily chart on the SPY remains in a uptrend, but very volatile (see figure 1). A pull back to the 124 level would not be a bad thing. If the SPY pulls back and then shows some strength it may set up some low risk swing trades. The short term time frame on the SPY is still up (see figure 2). I think on the shorter term time frame, the SPY needs to get above the 127.5 level in order to have a chance of pushing higher. Despite the powerful move in October, it has still been a challenging volatile environment. Today was an example of that, as the market sold of quite hard. I had taken some long side swing trades that I got stopped out of today for some small losses. However due to the volatile nature of this market, the next day could be a great up day and many swing trades could work. Seems that to be successful in this market you need to have an exceptional amount of emotional endurance. This is not the nice QE induced trending markets of '09 and '10. I expect more volatility as it seems traders switch between the 'risk on' trades (equities) and the 'risk off' (US treasuries and the US dollar) depending on the headlines of the day. I plan on being very selective in my trades and trading much smaller share size than I normally would if I felt we were in a low risk swing trading environment.

Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/

]]> spy US dollar US treasuries SPY 10/24/11 Market Update http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/229914-10-24-11-market-update?source=feed 229914
The SPY has broken through the 122 level is is looking quite strong on the daily chart. I have been reluctant to trade long side swing trades, because this market has broken out in the past and quickly reversed hard back into the range. I wanted to give the market some time to prove itself and avoid a quick reversal. Ideally I would like to see a pullback to 122 and then buy as the market regains strength. Another scenario I will be looking for is for the market to move through the 126 resistance level convincingly. If either of these two scenarios happen I am going to take some long side swing trades and see if they hold up. Another positive sign I am seeing now is that the 50 DMA (red) now has a positive slope. On previous breaks of the 122 level that moving average was declining. 
 
 
There is no guarantee of what the market is going to do next. Trading is about positioning yourself when you determine the probability to be in your favor. There is always risk. At least for the time being, the risk looks mitigated, especially if the 122 level holds.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/




]]> Mon, 24 Oct 2011 17:38:49 -0400
The SPY has broken through the 122 level is is looking quite strong on the daily chart. I have been reluctant to trade long side swing trades, because this market has broken out in the past and quickly reversed hard back into the range. I wanted to give the market some time to prove itself and avoid a quick reversal. Ideally I would like to see a pullback to 122 and then buy as the market regains strength. Another scenario I will be looking for is for the market to move through the 126 resistance level convincingly. If either of these two scenarios happen I am going to take some long side swing trades and see if they hold up. Another positive sign I am seeing now is that the 50 DMA (red) now has a positive slope. On previous breaks of the 122 level that moving average was declining. 
 
 
There is no guarantee of what the market is going to do next. Trading is about positioning yourself when you determine the probability to be in your favor. There is always risk. At least for the time being, the risk looks mitigated, especially if the 122 level holds.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/




]]> spy stock market technicals SPY An Emotional Market http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/227220-an-emotional-market?source=feed 227220


Despite the run up last week I still find this to be a challenging market. I prefer not to trade, or trade much more cautiously, when markets are at emotional extremes. We saw a similar situation in the Panic of '08 when the market took a nosedive and investors rushed to US treasuries (see Figure 1). The market has struggled over the last few months and we see a similar situation with money moving into US Treasuries. Last week we did start to see money move out of treasuries and back into stocks. The TLT (US treasury ETF) went to a high of 125 and has currently sold off to 114. Perhaps fear in the market is starting to subside. The SPY is currently at the top of it's trading range (see Figure 2). If we can break above and hold above 122 on the SPY it could make for an environment where long side swing trades offer  a reasonable risk to reward ratio.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/
]]> Sun, 16 Oct 2011 17:50:28 -0400


Despite the run up last week I still find this to be a challenging market. I prefer not to trade, or trade much more cautiously, when markets are at emotional extremes. We saw a similar situation in the Panic of '08 when the market took a nosedive and investors rushed to US treasuries (see Figure 1). The market has struggled over the last few months and we see a similar situation with money moving into US Treasuries. Last week we did start to see money move out of treasuries and back into stocks. The TLT (US treasury ETF) went to a high of 125 and has currently sold off to 114. Perhaps fear in the market is starting to subside. The SPY is currently at the top of it's trading range (see Figure 2). If we can break above and hold above 122 on the SPY it could make for an environment where long side swing trades offer  a reasonable risk to reward ratio.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/
]]> spy tlt US Treasury stock market technicals Back in trading Range (Cash still a good position) http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/225424-back-in-trading-range-cash-still-a-good-position?source=feed 225424
The last several trading days have been quite a powerful rally from 108 to 119 on the SPY. The SPY is back above the 50 DMA (see figure 2). While it is nice to see such a powerful rally, the larger picture still does not look particularly bullish (see figure 1). The general market does not look technically strong on weekly chart as all the major moving averages are still declining. In my experience range bound markets, especially ranges within a larger term downtrend, are particularly hard to trade. Usual characteristics include lots of volatility and false breakouts (see red circles on figure 2). I still being patient about putting money to work in this market. I would like to see a break above 122 on the SPY and then see if the market has the ability to stay above that level. I am looking for a change of character in this market before trying long side swing trades. If this is the start of a real rally and conditions have really improved then there will be plenty of opportunity to trade. There is no need to try and call the bottom.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/

]]> Mon, 10 Oct 2011 20:43:54 -0400
The last several trading days have been quite a powerful rally from 108 to 119 on the SPY. The SPY is back above the 50 DMA (see figure 2). While it is nice to see such a powerful rally, the larger picture still does not look particularly bullish (see figure 1). The general market does not look technically strong on weekly chart as all the major moving averages are still declining. In my experience range bound markets, especially ranges within a larger term downtrend, are particularly hard to trade. Usual characteristics include lots of volatility and false breakouts (see red circles on figure 2). I still being patient about putting money to work in this market. I would like to see a break above 122 on the SPY and then see if the market has the ability to stay above that level. I am looking for a change of character in this market before trying long side swing trades. If this is the start of a real rally and conditions have really improved then there will be plenty of opportunity to trade. There is no need to try and call the bottom.


Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/

]]> spy trading swing cash technicals Time to be patient (A look at the SPY and Gold) http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/223759-time-to-be-patient-a-look-at-the-spy-and-gold?source=feed 223759








We had a turn around at the end of the day Tueday and we had some follow through today. While it is nice to see two days of strength it is going to take more than two days to make me feel more bullish on the market. The SPY does not look bullish on the longer term time frame (see figure 1 above). It seems that the markets have struggled without the help of the Feds QE program. It would be nice to see this market rally without the help of QE, but right now I do not see any evidence of that in the price action. The fed has been hinting that it will provide additional monetary stimulus if needed. Currently we seem to be in a deflationary environment and we are seeing that in asset prices. We are also seeing that in gold (yellow line in Figure 1). The current environment has also brought down the price of gold, which has been relatively strong over the past few years. Gold is currently trading around 1645 $/oz and has come down from it's high of over $1900 $/oz. I think it is best to be patient right now. Market do not usually turn very fast and trying to pick the bottom can be difficult. Cash is probably the best position right now until I start to see some technical improvement in the markets. Right now, I feel that could still take a few months at the minimum.
]]> Wed, 05 Oct 2011 17:53:48 -0400








We had a turn around at the end of the day Tueday and we had some follow through today. While it is nice to see two days of strength it is going to take more than two days to make me feel more bullish on the market. The SPY does not look bullish on the longer term time frame (see figure 1 above). It seems that the markets have struggled without the help of the Feds QE program. It would be nice to see this market rally without the help of QE, but right now I do not see any evidence of that in the price action. The fed has been hinting that it will provide additional monetary stimulus if needed. Currently we seem to be in a deflationary environment and we are seeing that in asset prices. We are also seeing that in gold (yellow line in Figure 1). The current environment has also brought down the price of gold, which has been relatively strong over the past few years. Gold is currently trading around 1645 $/oz and has come down from it's high of over $1900 $/oz. I think it is best to be patient right now. Market do not usually turn very fast and trying to pick the bottom can be difficult. Cash is probably the best position right now until I start to see some technical improvement in the markets. Right now, I feel that could still take a few months at the minimum.
]]> spy gld stock market Rangebound Market and a look at the Great Depression http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/973059-rahul6180/221479-rangebound-market-and-a-look-at-the-great-depression?source=feed 221479
The market continues to be choppy and range bound between 123 and 112. This type of market environment is not offering low risk swing trade setups. My personal opinion is that the market will eventually break to the downside. This does not seem like a healthy market. The market is very headline driven right now. The market has also become too dependent on the Fed. It looks like operation Twist did not offer the kind of liquidity seen in QE1 and QE2. Cash is probably the best position for most people and that has been the case for the past two months.



I am primarily a technical trader, but it help to have a good idea about the big picture about the economy. I have heard some comparisons with regards to what the Fed has been doing to the 1930's depression. The thinking is that if the Fed has properly inflated the money supply the depression could have been prevented, or at least not as severe. I think there is more to the cause of the depression than the Fed failed to add enough liquidity. I highly recommend The Forgotten Man, by Amity Shlaes, for those that are interested in learning more about this period in American History. It is an in-depth look at the economic struggle during the Great Depression. The book also goes into great detail about Presidents Coolidge, Hoover, and FDR.

Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/
]]> Wed, 28 Sep 2011 20:41:14 -0400
The market continues to be choppy and range bound between 123 and 112. This type of market environment is not offering low risk swing trade setups. My personal opinion is that the market will eventually break to the downside. This does not seem like a healthy market. The market is very headline driven right now. The market has also become too dependent on the Fed. It looks like operation Twist did not offer the kind of liquidity seen in QE1 and QE2. Cash is probably the best position for most people and that has been the case for the past two months.



I am primarily a technical trader, but it help to have a good idea about the big picture about the economy. I have heard some comparisons with regards to what the Fed has been doing to the 1930's depression. The thinking is that if the Fed has properly inflated the money supply the depression could have been prevented, or at least not as severe. I think there is more to the cause of the depression than the Fed failed to add enough liquidity. I highly recommend The Forgotten Man, by Amity Shlaes, for those that are interested in learning more about this period in American History. It is an in-depth look at the economic struggle during the Great Depression. The book also goes into great detail about Presidents Coolidge, Hoover, and FDR.

Rahul Parikh
marketharmony.blogspot.com/
]]> spy depression QE Fed