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Econovan

Econovan
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  • AbbVie Versus Gilead In Hepatitis C, With Comments On Biotech [View article]
    Great article; I was waiting for some perspective today!
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Property And Casualty Insurance Companies [View article]
    I think this is a very thorough article, thanks! I just need a little more time and education to understand it... I recently sold some AIG and TRV to reallocate but still like the business especially going into rising rates some day. (Though it looks like the Fed is going to have to back off again based on contagion of the world economic malaise).
    Dec 13, 2014. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can You Go? [View article]
    Consider this - the collapse of oil could trigger a wave of defaults to the point of another debt crisis. First all the over-leveraged E&P and service companies, then all those pesky employees and their real estate. I think the S&L crisis of the 1980s was caused by a real estate collapse in the fly-over states. So while lower energy prices may stimulate parts of the economy, they may also kill one of the main economic engines left running in America.

    I like the idea of expanding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. I also think that - like the mortgage crisis we just survived - low junk bond rates for these oil companies caused by the Federal Reserve led to the overproduction we have now. Fed policy always leads to unintended consequences, and Friday's decline in financial stocks may be a leading indicator of a looming debt crisis.
    Dec 13, 2014. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Business Boom Or Bust? [View instapost]
    I think we're now 'round about stage 3 - peak supply surplus and about to see production cuts. Declining production in 2015 should start to stabilize the price next summer. I don't see stage 4 till maybe 2016.
    Dec 12, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    Madrem - This comment about wash sale puzzles me - to whom is it addressed?
    Nov 25, 2014. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    Selling a naked put option is not necessarily trading if one has a target date and price in mind to buy. If the stock hits my target price on that date I buy (maybe I pay too much but I think $95 is a fair price). If it doesn't hit that price I get to keep the option money. I think of it as conditional investing. Selling covered call options is also not trading if you're satisfied with the price and are ready to reallocate. That's my understanding anyway.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    Yeah, I wanted to buy GILD but the price action is so negative. I think portfolio rebalancing has to be the reason so I'm willing to wait it out and be an insurance salesman for now.
    Nov 25, 2014. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    I sold GILD yesterday for 100.37, then today sold a Dec 26 $95 put option. The shares were sold for a loss in a taxable account. Does that make sense? I'm fairly new to option trading.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton Stock Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    I read your article F&GT and it was good. There is just one thing that wakes me up at night - too many companies say they can still make money at $75 per barrel. If you see my latest instablog you would understand my fear that we might have to see a shakeout in the oil business before prices stabilize and start to rise. So I'm nervously holding some energy and natural resources stocks hoping that China and the rest of the world start growing again. At least this time around we don't have OPEC sustaining high prices until economies start to collapse, and the central banks certainly aren't keeping rates sky-high like in the 1980s.
    Nov 22, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton Stock Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Yeah I got interested in HAL because it showed up on one of my Graham screens, but when I saw the terms of the BHI deal I bought BHI instead, so I get HAL plus $19 cash per share. Of course I understand the risk, but that 3.5 billion dollar failure penalty is pretty sweet for BHI too.
    Nov 21, 2014. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton The New King? [View article]
    That's commitment!
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton The New King? [View article]
    If you believe they will merge, why not buy BHI and get HAL for $39 today?
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Rising Net Income, Zero Debt And Strong R&D Pipeline [View article]
    One thing should be considered with GILD is their highly visible political target on their backs when it comes to pricing of Sovaldi and Harvoni. Insurance industry will most likely have to put limits on treatment options when they reach $1000 plus per day. Also these drugs invite competition on price. So one way or the other those prices will come down.
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton The New King? [View article]
    based on the current price of BHI and the terms of the deal, HAL is worth about $42 a share. I guess some of the difference between the offer price (1.12 shares of HAL plus $19 cash) is risk of failure, but in that case HAL loses 3.5 billion and BHI gains 3.5 billion. So I guess I would rather buy BHI at 66 than HAL at 50. Today at least.
    Nov 17, 2014. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Silver Miner To Choose Based On AISC [View article]
    I think they have to produce more of their lower-cost ore, so the AISC goes down, just to keep their revenues from tanking. The high-cost ore sits idle so this situation would end up depleting the lower-cost ores eventually. Next time the prices go up, they start mining the higher cost ore and the AISC goes up again, or they run out of low-cost ore and shutter their operations. Makes sense to me.
    Nov 6, 2014. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
76 Comments
110 Likes