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Econovan

Econovan
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  • A Revised Calculation To Uncover Dividend Growth Potential [View article]
    I would suggest that dividend growth generally will slow down for at least a few years because those increased payouts have been fueled by low interest rates, causing companies to borrow instead of retaining earnings for growth. I hate to say it, but if the scales tilt the other way, some may even be forced to cut dividends or at least freeze increases. This is one of those areas where the piper has yet to be paid for the Bernanke experiment.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    Lance, I think in the long term that there will be labor surpluses that continue to constrain wage growth and keep a lid on inflation. Thus any strong growth will probably be absorbed by an ample supply of fresh young talent from around the world, coming online, getting educated and increasingly location agnostic.

    Thus central banks will probably maintain low rates for as long as I can see in the future and beyond. The only thing to stop this merry go-round will be when material surpluses finally get absorbed by growing demand and their prices become the primary factor in a high-inflation environment. At that point high rates won't stop inflation without crushing the world economy (think 1982), so between here and there I wouldn't go too long anything without some inflation hedges. Agree?
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed At Risk Of Missing Window To Hike Rates [View article]
    You are right, but in a way that 1.2% number makes my earlier point. We were so depressed at the end of 2008 that we should have had much more bounce-back since then. If you average the growth across that recession and the recovery, we are still way below a normal 10-year growth rate and overdue for better growth ahead, given the right regulatory environment.
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil's Backwards Mindset Will Present Problems [View article]
    I didn't see comments to this effect, but the real threat to companies like Exxon is not from renewable energy, but from electric cars and advances in battery tech like Tesla is doing. This article seems to be just an environmental delusion. I hope solar tech does advance, but I don't see that as ever threatening Exxon.
    Jun 11, 2015. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed At Risk Of Missing Window To Hike Rates [View article]
    Consider this as an alternative scenario: the economy has been constrained by an anti-business federal government ever since the crash, so there may still be pent up demand for growth in the system. Who says we ever came out of recession in 2009-2010? Maybe we just bounced off the bottom but are still well below our true growth potential if some people and policies were replaced at the national level. In that case we're due for a recovery instead of recession in the next couple of years! OK, that was my "rose colored glasses" moment for the day.
    Jun 11, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LyondellBasell Stock Worth Considering Right Now? [View article]
    If I were an insider I would schnitzel a few shares after the huge run.
    Jun 4, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks named in FIFA scandal [View news story]
    Hmmm, FIFA. Latin America. Third world countries. Bribes. Ever tried to do business in these countries without bribing public officials? Banks are named because they have deep pockets and are proven to be patsies for government lawsuits. Next!
    May 28, 2015. 09:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Rising Interest Rate Environment Will Impact AIG's Net Investment Income [View article]
    I'm not sure that the current rate environment is normal and that higher rates would be temporary? What if rates indeed returned to 2006-2007 levels and stayed that way? Yes interest income would rise but wouldn't that be a massive hit to book value?
    May 27, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of The Impact Of Treasury Yields On The Price Of REITs [View article]
    I like the article but I'm not sure the short/long term lease analysis is correct in predicting volatility. That only works if during the next rising rate cycle (which we may already be in), lease prices are also rising as they are renewed. The last time we had a secular bear market in bonds the economy was growing and there was great demand for services offered by these REITs. I'm concerned that the cause of the next secular bear market in bonds may be due to a gradual and then sudden loss of dollar hegemony rather than economic growth. Have you considered that scenario, or is that too "macro" for your analysis?
    May 20, 2015. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson And A 'Forever' Lower Share Price [View article]
    I guess most of you are young enough to think long term and buy more. The demographic that actually needs JNJ to preserve their capital and distribute income needed to pay their bills is probably older than the SA crowd? However, I think JNJ is one of the best companies to preserve investment capital so hopefully that's not an issue here.
    May 20, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Finally Gaining Momentum [View article]
    Is GILD able to generate organic growth, or only get lucky with another Pharmasett acquisition? In the long run it's hard to bet on luck. I hope GILD is either very smart internally or at least has very smart bizdev guys.
    May 20, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Citigroup Has Left A Bad Taste In Investors' Mouths And How It Can Change [View article]
    Sorry to disagree but when 2014 is a speck in the rear view mirror I think the numbers will drive the price higher. Only macro problems could stop that, IMO.
    May 15, 2015. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Citigroup Has Left A Bad Taste In Investors' Mouths And How It Can Change [View article]
    If you can find passbook savings to return 10% or more over the next five years, please post back how I can sign up!
    May 15, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: The Labor Hoarding Effect [View article]
    Lance, I listened to your radio broadcast for many years and benefited from your sound insights. Somehow I don't think most people voting or being elected fully appreciate what it will take to get people fully employed again. Secular headwinds of technology and regulation and "government help programs" are just too strong and so many are at the wrong end of the barrel on these trends. I fear that if that continues the barrel may eventually be turned the other way by popular demand.
    May 15, 2015. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't Gilead Run? [View article]
    Before Gilead bought Pharmasett they were floundering (as I recall). Can they do it again - how do we know? I hope for the best, but swinging for the fence can produce a lot of strikeouts! At least it looks like Gilead is playing small-ball right now.
    May 14, 2015. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
130 Comments
173 Likes