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  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    Thanks Hawkeye, those articles are extremely informative and well articulated.
    Oct 23, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    I'm sort-of amazed that Russia doesn't come into play in these discussions. The day Russia started bombing in Syria is the day the petroleum market turned abruptly upward. I don't think this was just knee-jerk, run-for-the-hills reaction; Russia has changed the calculus of Middle East politics and the OPEC equation entirely. The Russia-Iran alliance and its potential impact on the balance of power, particularly vis-a-vis Saudi dependence on an unreliable America with no defense budget as of yesterday's veto - these are things with long-lasting implications for who controls the world's energy supply. American energy business looks increasingly important to our own autonomy. If I were in Europe or Japan on the other hand I would be incredibly nervous.
    Oct 23, 2015. 12:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil In The Supply Glut - What To Buy When The Buying Gets Good [View article]
    The only dead cats I see are the ones hanging around Syrian rebel camps. The Russians have changed the dynamics of the oil market, possibly permanently. At least that's what the market seems to be saying right now. Of course, I'm old enough to remember the Soviet empire and its influence in that part of the world. This is most certainly not a good thing for civilization.
    Oct 8, 2015. 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Consider Exxon Mobil [View article]
    I think Russia/Iran/Iraq alliance could take the entire Middle East and thus change OPEC policy very quickly. Who would stop them? That might backfire during occupation, but I don't think Putin has the humility to recognize that in advance, or maybe he has a deal with the Ayatollah to enable the radicals in exchange for oil hegemony.
    Oct 7, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obvious Case For Buying Apple [View article]
    I like that - a phone is an app. Never really thought that way before. Apple has been a platform king for a very long time, but before iPhone it was confined to schools and publishers mostly.
    Oct 1, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Right Time To Consider Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    There remains a big upside when Icahn gets enough shares to replace current management. Until then I would expect lots of volatility. I don't think I have the stomach for it personally, but I know I'm probably missing a big opportunity.
    Sep 21, 2015. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG - Recent Selloff Is Great [View article]
    I guess that comes from lots of advertising dollars and Snoopy :) Thanks.
    Sep 21, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG - Recent Selloff Is Great [View article]
    MET seems like an even better value to me - bought more at $46. If you know why MET is trading at like -25% under book value- I would appreciate some insight!
    Sep 18, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell The Difference Between The Graham Formula And The Graham Number [View article]
    The book value part of the Graham Number has a problem today particularly in high-tech businesses where intellectual property is not correctly valued. I don't fault Graham for this, but FASB which is always at least two steps behind the times.
    Sep 14, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Kinder Morgan: 6% Dividend And 10% Annual Dividend Growth [View article]
    What happens to the contracts if some of those customers go bankrupt?
    Sep 13, 2015. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Shareholder Returns With Marathon Petroleum [View article]
    One thing I haven't seen mentioned is a lot of non-US competition (i.e. new refineries) coming online this winter which will threaten US refining business' high profit margins. That explains the low earnings multiples the refiners currently fetch in the market. Also, there is a general feeling that things can't get any better and are likely to get worse for this historically challenged business model. On top of that MPC was unable to capitalize on this perfect environment for refiners, and their last quarterly report disappointed a lot of investors with their poor margins. Other refiners like VLO and PSX have been more consistent performers and thus sport higher multiples now.
    Sep 13, 2015. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Gilead Sciences, Inc. [View article]
    CSYJ, actually the question was really a question; thanks for the answer! I don't have enough time right now to understand their business or their acquisition history, but this helps! I used "tech" in a broader sense to include sciences like biopharma but knowing that GILD top management has PHDs and experts in their field is also helpful. I worked for a software company run by sales people for 25 years and their history of acquisitions was dreadful.
    Sep 13, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Gilead Sciences, Inc. [View article]
    I wonder if you trust management too much to make a good acquisition. It is very difficult to make good acquisitions in the tech space unless the companies have already worked together extensively and shared non-disclosure agreements enough to really understand the acquisition. Otherwise they will pay 2-3X the market price and have low odds of success. Was the HCV acquisition a one-hit lottery ticket or does management have a proven track record of successful acquisitions? You have to respect the former possibility, thus the market remains skeptical.
    Sep 11, 2015. 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Church & Dwight Is In A Bubble [View article]
    I replaced CHD with PG and PEP today because of valuation. I agree with author, current valuation of CHD is unsustainable and will result in underperformance, even with good management. Strong company, weak investment right now.
    Sep 10, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Church & Dwight Is In A Bubble [View article]
    CHD is a Suburban selling at a Maserati price, IMHO. Well, maybe a Mercedes price. Very practical, predictable, but overpriced.
    Sep 10, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment