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  • How To Tell The Difference Between The Graham Formula And The Graham Number  [View article]
    The book value part of the Graham Number has a problem today particularly in high-tech businesses where intellectual property is not correctly valued. I don't fault Graham for this, but FASB which is always at least two steps behind the times.
    Sep 14, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Kinder Morgan: 6% Dividend And 10% Annual Dividend Growth  [View article]
    What happens to the contracts if some of those customers go bankrupt?
    Sep 13, 2015. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Shareholder Returns With Marathon Petroleum  [View article]
    One thing I haven't seen mentioned is a lot of non-US competition (i.e. new refineries) coming online this winter which will threaten US refining business' high profit margins. That explains the low earnings multiples the refiners currently fetch in the market. Also, there is a general feeling that things can't get any better and are likely to get worse for this historically challenged business model. On top of that MPC was unable to capitalize on this perfect environment for refiners, and their last quarterly report disappointed a lot of investors with their poor margins. Other refiners like VLO and PSX have been more consistent performers and thus sport higher multiples now.
    Sep 13, 2015. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Gilead Sciences, Inc.  [View article]
    CSYJ, actually the question was really a question; thanks for the answer! I don't have enough time right now to understand their business or their acquisition history, but this helps! I used "tech" in a broader sense to include sciences like biopharma but knowing that GILD top management has PHDs and experts in their field is also helpful. I worked for a software company run by sales people for 25 years and their history of acquisitions was dreadful.
    Sep 13, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Gilead Sciences, Inc.  [View article]
    I wonder if you trust management too much to make a good acquisition. It is very difficult to make good acquisitions in the tech space unless the companies have already worked together extensively and shared non-disclosure agreements enough to really understand the acquisition. Otherwise they will pay 2-3X the market price and have low odds of success. Was the HCV acquisition a one-hit lottery ticket or does management have a proven track record of successful acquisitions? You have to respect the former possibility, thus the market remains skeptical.
    Sep 11, 2015. 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Church & Dwight Is In A Bubble  [View article]
    I replaced CHD with PG and PEP today because of valuation. I agree with author, current valuation of CHD is unsustainable and will result in underperformance, even with good management. Strong company, weak investment right now.
    Sep 10, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Church & Dwight Is In A Bubble  [View article]
    CHD is a Suburban selling at a Maserati price, IMHO. Well, maybe a Mercedes price. Very practical, predictable, but overpriced.
    Sep 10, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investments In Renewable Energy One Reason Among Many For A Bullish View On Duke  [View article]
    Jerrydd, I don't have time to look up all your acronyms. I think you said something meaningful but being from outside FLA I just can't understand the TLAs.
    Aug 29, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger Has 15% Downside Risk  [View article]
    Got it for $69 today. They paid a bit too much for CAM but at least they did it with their eyes open (as opposed to HAL which got whacked from their blind side).
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cameron International Is Headed For A Fall  [View article]
    The premium on CAM was taken out of SLB's stock today, so the scales were just rebalanced. I was looking for SLB under 70 and got it today. Hoping SLB knows what they are doing; at least it wasn't ill-timed like HAL/BHI.
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: Fed Stumbles, Buybacks, Stock Decline  [View article]
    Conga - maybe you missed my point. The Fed is out of ammunition and they never really solved the problem, just enabled the government to kick the can while policy makers made the problems worse and debts compounded. I could list a few more economy killers like growing entitlements, taxes that encourage companies to eliminate jobs in America, secular trends toward automation that concentrate wealth at the top while old politicians are blinded by lobbyist money, the list goes on... The Fed may have tried to help but in the end they were just enablers, counting on visions from the past to rescue the economy while they held back the growing tide of debt.
    Aug 22, 2015. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: Fed Stumbles, Buybacks, Stock Decline  [View article]
    Clearly, without a doubt, the job of protecting the economy lies not with the Federal Reserve but with our misguided policy makers in Washington. 2017 is too late to solve that problem. Dodd-Frank, EPA carbon taxes, Keystone gridlock, and various other anti-employer policies need to be changed ASAP.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger Has 15% Downside Risk  [View article]
    Wow, that's a pretty dialectic evaluation! Thanks, I think I'll hold my underweight position for a while and see if $70 comes my way.
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Martin Armstrong Predicts Major Sovereign Debt Crisis Beginning October 1, 2015  [View article]
    Is he related to Herbert W. Armstrong? Not to sound flippant, but he didn't mention the Shemitah. He could be right, but I wouldn't sell anything short based on that date.
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 16 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week - 8/1/15  [View article]
    I don't know if this article is generated by an algorithm, but it makes little sense to me.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment