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Econovan

Econovan
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  • Even With A Fiscal Cliff Deal, Stocks And The U.S. Economy Will Unravel In 2013 [View article]
    Another even worse cliff is coming, the full implementation of Democrat policy changes (Dodd-Frank and Obamacare). These policies were designed for a stronger economic recovery that never happened, and were expected to be harsh medicine even then, so they were scheduled to take effect in a non-election year. Good luck out there, I'm Seeking Shelter now!
    Nov 9 02:55 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Couldn't Find Value In AT&T [View article]
    I trade around a core position. I added some today at 33.70. It's way better than long term corporate debt.
    Dec 13 03:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold- Buffett And Morgan Stanley Agree [View article]
    This article sort of misses the point by questioning the value of gold as an investment. Of course it is only a gamble if you want short term gains. Gold and land are among the few things you can own that do not depreciate. Gold is among the very few things that do not depreciate and are portable and do not rely on governments to enforce your ownership rights. As such it is simply an alternative to cash. Right now neither gold nor cash offer any return as an investment, but as a store of value (when purchased at the right price) gold offers the advantage of being counterfeit-proof. To me that makes it worth holding a portion of my long-term cash allocation in gold.
    Jan 31 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Stocks Crash And Don't Bounce Back? [View article]
    I tried that in fall of Y2K after the market had fallen 20%. I still lost 50% from there on those investments until two years later when I decided to go to a more conservative stance. Both were bad decisions. Timing is very difficult or impossible. Since then I maintain an allocation that lets me sleep at night and view corrections as opportunities to rebalance. The challenge now is the bond side of the allocation - waiting for decent yields is harder than waiting for decent P/E ratios.
    Dec 18 02:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Unloved, Undervalued, Misunderstood And Loads Of Income Stream Potential [View article]
    After a few years the scenario becomes flawed because if CSCO is able to raise dividend 5% a year the stock would eventually have an unrealistic yield and remaining valued at 20.24 would indicate they are increasingly at risk of cutting the dividend or going bankrupt.

    Also your DRIP model, by making the assumption that the stock trades for increasingly ridiculous valuations as time goes on, becomes flawed by acquiring a very high yielding stock at unrealistically low valuations.

    It's a nice fantasy, but more realistic to assume either a lower dividend growth rate or a share price appreciation closer to that growth rate. Over time one or the other must be true.
    Dec 16 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Feeling Like It's Just Not Worth It Anymore? [View article]
    I wonder if you could calculate the effect on NLY book value if 10 year treasuries go to 5%
    Sep 5 04:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Mortgage Rates Makes Annaly Capital A Strong Buy [View article]
    I would just like to point out that mREITs are basically highly leveraged long-term bond portfolios, so even though they might have a great business model from a cash flow perspective, their leveraged assets are poisoning the well.
    Jul 5 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Freeport-McMoRan To Change Its Name [View article]
    How about the name "BLU Billions"? I've seen incestuous boards get together in the past; their spawn usually has serious defects.
    Dec 7 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Getting Innovative To Gain A Foothold [View article]
    Note to author - duel is a fight to the death (maybe appropriate in this context.) Otherwise you made some good points!
    Feb 5 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Communications Doubles Down On Landlines [View article]
    One question for the author - you mention that the assets FTR is acquiring have EBITDA about 1/4 of the purchase price. Do you know what the FCF is on these assets? In other words, is there CAPEX required to maintain that earning stream? That seems to be the challenge in this wire line business, to maintain the earnings without significant capital expenditures.
    Dec 18 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Tax Loss Selling With These 2 Tech Stock Bargains [View article]
    I looked at IRDM - high levels of cap-ex have caused negative free cash flow for the last few years and thus relatively high debt/equity ratio now. I guess the satellite phone business has some issues long term as more and more cellular dead-zones are covered, reducing the need for these expensive devices. The highest rated analyst covering this stock has a sell rating on it due to declining ROE. These are probably reasons why the stock is undervalued and subject to tax loss selling now. That said, it still looks like an interesting value trade.
    Dec 10 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosengren doubts Octaper coming [View news story]
    Septaper didn't happen, Octaper won't happen, I guess Notaper will ever happen.
    Oct 2 04:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Coffee Is Costing So Much More This Year [View article]
    Like everything else the government subsidizes prices will rise faster than inflation. Just like the PPACA will drive up medical costs even faster now. Of course I wouldn't count on food stamps being abolished so retail food stocks and agriculture stocks (like medical stocks) should also rise faster than inflation. Good call!
    Apr 18 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies For When The Bull Market Finally Dies [View article]
    Nice illustration of the futility of market timing. Maybe you could do an analysis of using an asset allocation model based on the Shiller CAPE ratio - using a lower stock allocation when the CAPE ratio is higher and vice versa. Without looking at trend lines and just measuring the market with objective long-term valuation methods seems safer to me, and causes me to maintain a fairly low allocation to stocks right now. I might get hurt by this while I wait and I might not get out as quickly as I should, but on the other hand my model should allow me to have plenty of cash for the next market down cycle and plenty to live on in the meantime. Then the question is what to do with the non-stock allocation.
    Jan 23 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: An Anti-Cyclical, Undervalued Copper Play With A Near 4% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Does Richard Adkerson speak English or was this translated poorly from an Indonesian paper? It's almost unreadable. That doesn't instill much confidence, sorry to say. Also, this article doesn't consider the distinct possibility of economic meltdown in China due to unsustainable local government debts. I own some FCX shares, but it's getting a little uncomfortable holding until China starts growing again.
    Jan 23 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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