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  • Trump For Fed Chair [View article]
    Okay, that's three types of people.
    Nov 24, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trump For Fed Chair [View article]
    Two kinds of people speak with great confidence in their voices: 1) those who know what they're doing and 2) sociopathic liars. Sadly, most people can't tell the two apart.
    Nov 23, 2015. 09:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Sees Worse Economic Growth In The Next 4 Years Than In The Last 6 [View article]
    Nonsense! Gold has gone from under $35 to $1200!!!

    Wait, what's your time frame? Let's see, Alan Greenspan began the age of the accommodative Fed in 1987. The price of gold since the beginning of that era has risen to $1200 from around $400. So what was your point again?

    Do you expect all Central Banks to continue to be this accommodative forever? Without hyperinflation?
    Sep 17, 2015. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Sees Worse Economic Growth In The Next 4 Years Than In The Last 6 [View article]
    But odd (and a bit worrisome) for the market to plunge 1.5% (from its 2:45 pm peak) on a dovish Fed announcement. This behavior is not representative of what the market did following such announcements for quite some time. Is economic weakness starting to overwhelm accommodative policy?
    Sep 17, 2015. 07:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Sees Worse Economic Growth In The Next 4 Years Than In The Last 6 [View article]
    Good article and observations. In the post-announcement Q&Q Yellen said several times that what is happening in the international markets and in the global economy certainly was discussed by the FOMC members. I take this to mean they took it into account. She mentioned China specifically more than once.

    As always, economic projections moved mysteriously away from whatever trend they are currently enjoying and towards the Fed targets. All without any particular justification as to what will change in the next few years to make this so. Inflation to 2%, GDP to 2%, employment to under 5%. Hmmmm.
    Sep 17, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So Sayeth The Fed [View article]
    Chair Yellen's performance in the Press Conference was so impressive, the S&P500 went from up 1.24% to down 0.04% while she spoke. The message I took away was that the Fed was scared, don't know why the economy is not reacting more in line with their projections, and is afraid to say or do anything that may hurt the markets. Not very inspirational.
    Sep 17, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Metaxas Moment? [View article]
    It's funny. You say "Nobody really wants Grexit..." yet you point to one Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, who thinks it's the best option for Greece. This morning another Nobel prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, also came out in support of Greece exiting (or at least saying "No" in the referendum -

    So you have two Nobel prize winning economists who think Grexit is the best deal, not necessarily a GOOD deal, but possibly the best. Now one could say these are "ivory tower" types with o real understanding. Or one could admit that, while being very bad for very over-priced markets, Grexit could be the best thing for the world financial system in the long run.

    Many people believe that banks and governments failed to address the key issues leading to the 2008 Great Recession and that, until these issues are properly addressed rather than simply papered over, we will not return to real growth. Syriza may be the first govt that has had the courage not to accept a short-term, can-kicking solution to its problems. But it won't be the last.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Yes, people forget that the run on Greek banks is presently, actually a run on the ECB. If Greece nationalises its bankrupt banks and repudiates the debt, then it will have managed to steal another 88 billion Euros from the ECB. People will be free to exchange their Euros for Drachma at the black market rate, automatically increasing the economic activity in the country.
    Jun 27, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    I understand the ECB has a call on all the deposits in the Greek Banking system as collateral. If Greece simply nationalises the main banks, I don't know that the ECB could claim the deposits then.

    But I agree. I wouldn't expect China or Russia to get involved until Greece has repudiated its debts. Then, with a clean slate, they could step in and float the country through its troubles.
    Jun 27, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    So, what are your predictions now that Greece has promised a referendum on whether to accept the institutions' proposals? Still no default? What about USA/IMF support now? What about China or Russia now?
    Jun 27, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Care About The Yield Curve [View article]
    The difference between 3mo and 30yrs in 1999 was about 1.3%. From 1993 3mos went up by about 1.5% while 30 yrs came down about 1%. The gap now is about 3.3%. The June FOMC dotplot shows expectations on the FFR (presumably close to 3mos) of about 1.25% in 2016. That alone, without any 30yr drop would flatten the curve to 1999-like differences.

    Doesn't that suggest a similar 1999-like stock event? Or do you suspect that 30yrs will rise fast enough to maintain the spread? How would 30yrs near 5% (maintaining current spread over the next year) affect stocks?
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing home sales rise past expectations [View news story]
    First revise previous month down by 2.3% then calculate increase from downwardly-revised figure to get 5.1%. All anybody sees is, it's up 5% from last month. But it's not. Increase is only 2.6% up from last month's unrevised figures. So, in April instead of an okay 3.3% decline, we had more like a 6% decline (p.s. NAR report says this figure is "upwardly revised"). This "fudging" of headline stats that are then quietly revised by more than 50% makes a mockery of statistical reporting in the USA. The next time someone complains about the reliability of Chinese statistics, remember this.
    Jun 22, 2015. 11:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen press conference: Market volatility won't prevent hikes [View news story]
    Maybe they're waiting for everyone to lose interest in watching them. Being boring can be a good strategy for central banks.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumers Stay In Recession Which Is Taken As A 'Surge'? [View article]
    It looks like a matter of how one spins their stats. The link uses 3-month annualized data, so changes in any short period will be amplified. The above article uses Y/Y % change, so it will incorporate recent changes into an average since last year. Short-term vs. longer-term data. Who's view is better, I have no idea.
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment [View news story]
    Wow that's one HUGE standard error measure (estimated at +/- 2.2% 95 times out of 100 - but never compared to a larger survey, so who knows?). Only landlines used, no cells, misses many young adults.
    Jun 12, 2015. 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment