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wmateri

wmateri
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  • No, Higher Velocity Will Not Necessarily Mean Higher Inflation [View article]
    When I look at the first graph, there seems to be a relationship between V and CPI up until about 1991, then it breaks down completely. Could you highlight in the second graph the dots prior to 1991 and the dots after that? If this thesis holds, what might have happened around 1991 to change the relationship?
    Oct 21 08:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Slow Means Go After Fed Alters Its Outlook [View article]
    That felt like a particlularly vicious head-fake.
    Oct 9 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    longtermbull - By very simple mathematics, if debt remains the same (it won't) then GDP would have to DOUBLE to bring debt/GDP down to 175%. Do you believe that's going to happen?
    Sep 19 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Michael - Great comments! Our view of perpetual growth is very much like believing that breathing requires only inhalation. I suggest that those who believe this, try breathing that way sometime.
    Sep 19 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Of course, even Thelma and Louise knew the game was going to be over (inevitably) long before their car actually went over the cliff. At what point in their race towards the edge would they have been recognized as geniuses for saying "You know this isn't going to end well?"
    Sep 18 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Fabsy - So you're saying that when Draghi promised OMTs to directly buy govt bonds, that he was given approval by Germany's Bundesbank and high court and that was all legitimate? I didn't think so. Pretty much all of the ECB's intervention in the marketplace has been sterilized as demanded by Germany (who may be changing their tune now). The most recent TLTRO operation has been a bust so far (http://bit.ly/1qhBXpD) and Europe is very close to deflation (http://bit.ly/ZssbvH). So tell me how Draghi has been successful in any way besides making the markets more confident, i.e. "jawboning", resulting in interest rates in Spain (Spain!) lower than those in the US. I won't address your general slanderous remarks as they might lend them credit they are not due.
    Sep 18 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    tinbox - You're absolutely right that the doomsdayers have been wrong the past four years. The percent of S&P gains they missed on was large. But how far off were they really? It seems to me there were a number of binary events that could have gone either way, but ended up going one way that stabilized markets. For example, the last Greek election was one by the ruling party by only about 2.5%. However, Greek politics are such that the winning party gets a big boost in the legislature. This gave them stability, but it was a very close thing at the time and would have had dire consequences for the Euro had the results been just a bit different. Draghi's comments about doing "whatever it takes" were also unpredictable in advance. Given that his comments had no merit (i.e. the ECB could not legally implement them) and the Euro was "stabilized" by nothing more than jawboning, that could have gone either way too. The doomsayers of the past few years have looked at economic reality and the cheerleaders have looked at politics (in the ECB, the Fed, the EU parliament, etc.). Things could easily have turned out differently. They didn't and that makes some people feel superior. Good for them. But I wouldn't advise being too cocky; things could easily, and quickly, change.
    Sep 18 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts [View news story]
    Delusion is at a 3 year high everywhere. Sadly unmeasured.
    Sep 18 11:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth Of Student Debt: Lies, Damned Lies And Statistics [View article]
    And how would those servicing levels look with interest rates back at 8%?
    Sep 17 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. And U.K. Wages [View article]
    I don't understand. If everyone (particularly Central Banks) wants inflation, especially wage inflation, and it's just not happening, why don't we hear pressure on companies from governments to [strengthen unions and] increase wages more? Where is the pressure on employers to increase the wages of their workers? Or, is the reason for the silence because the CBs know we actually have stealth inflation (currency deflation) and they want to keep it quiet so they can continue to service debts at record low interest rates? Mind you, if they were that clever they'd probably be actually reducing debt levels instead of adding to them. Maybe they just haven't put it all together yet or maybe they just want to keep their record profits for their friends as long as they can.
    Sep 17 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen Speaks Softly, Market Overreacts [View article]
    In the first two minutes after the announcement the market plummetted then quickly reversed (overreacted?) to the lack of change in Yellen's dovish tone during the press conference. However, after reviewing today's CPI, the market seems to have rethought its dovishness a bit. If the US is near deflation that is good for the USD, bad for stocks, and looks very bad for the Fed (their QE was useless). We'll know more in the days ahead.
    Sep 17 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks pop as Hilsenrath says dovish Fed language to stay [View news story]
    Markets weren't great Friday or Monday. Seeing how most (>80%) of market gains in the past number of years have happened in the three days leading up to FOMC announcements, today needed to be big to get back on track. Buy the rumor today, sell the news tomorrow.
    Sep 16 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian gold demand slumped in Q2 [View news story]
    Thanks filipo. It looks like about 2/3 of world mining production has been removed from the Shanghai Gold Exchange this year. That doesn't seem like much of a slump, though compared to last year at this time, it's undoubtedly a reduction.
    Sep 15 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian gold demand slumped in Q2 [View news story]
    I don't believe these numbers include Chinese purchases through Shanghai (though I could be wrong on that and would appreciate being corrected).
    Sep 15 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Champagne Sits On Ice [View article]
    How much of the EPS is explained by the outsized stock buybacks?
    Sep 2 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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