Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
That's hilarious. Now even rumors of rumors (sorry, of serious analyses) are enough to move the HFT algos.
Early feedback on U.K./Canadian BlackBerry Q10 (BBRY -4%) sales indicate volumes below expectations, says Cleveland Research. The firm also thinks Z10 sell-thru is likely half of what it was around launch time, and believes BB10 build targets for the next few quarters could fall to 6M-8M from 10M-12M. Likewise, Pac Crest remains bearish, and calls the U.K./Canadian Q10 launches a "mess." The remarks follow a pessimistic note about BB10 sales on Monday from Canaccord, and one on April 25 from Wedge Partners. Jefferies has been more positive. [View news story]
cereal - That was a highly idiotic review done by someone whose main complaint was that the OS didn't feel like iOS or Android. Clearly someone who has difficulty adapting to simple, new technology shouldn't be writing about it. Nevertheless, we are happy that these people are keeping BBRY price down so we can accumulate more stock.
Marcap - So the BBRY share price isn't continuing to spiral down, just your opinion of the value of the company! Well that's one way to arrive at a valuation, I guess. My opinion of the company has gone up a bit as it exceeds sales forecasts and beats on revenue and profit. We'll see whose opinion and interpretation of the spiral direction prevails. I'd wish you luck but I'd rather wish you were gone.
MrAllister "I can agree that their is no evidence that Blackberry is currently loosing money, but I believe that is due to cost cutting." - Cost cutting (especially through not creating jobs) is responsible for most of the current profits on Wall Street. Very few companies are actually beating on revenue. So, since when did sound fiscal management become a negative for any company? I would assume that BBRY's hiring will scale up as their manufacturing scales up, etc.
Ah, Marcap, there you are; I missed you. You are even better than yongzhou in the steadfastness of your opinion and your eagerness to represent it as fact. It's great that you are able to interpret an over 100% increase from BBRY's lows as a continuing downward spiral. But maybe you should retake those drawing lessons (throw in a little geometry for good measure).
MrAllister - My comment was not only in reference to yongzhou's present comment, but also many past comments. So, what one can HONESTLY say (in contrast to both what you and he said) is that BB LOST market share and money, NOT that it is currently doing either of those things as we simply DON'T KNOW at this point (unless you have better inside info than most of us). That is why my past comments have gone on at length about the uselessness of trying to predict future tech stock performance by straight-line extrapolation of past performance. There is much credible info on SA (please DO look into it) to suggest that BB sales (both Z10 and Q10) are doing quite well, but it's ALL speculation until we have then numbers from BB. Any assertion that you or yongzhou or anyone has those numbers now is a LIE.
The comment about the keyboard is an OPINION also not a fact but, admittedly not an actual lie. I suggested yongzhou was not being very clever because, again, there are good analyses on SA and elsewhere that would suggest there was some pent-up demand for, and loyalty to, physical keyboards on a smartphone. Personally, I don't like them. But I'm at least smart enough to realize that there may be a substantial number of people who do. Making investment decisions based upon what one personally does or doesn't like is IDIOTIC. Hence, my comments
Uranium's Dirty Little Secret - Investors Take Note [View article]
One other approach to improving the operational safety of nuclear plants is to mix the uranium pellets with beryllium oxide to dissipate heat more rapidly, also leading to a situation where core meltdowns can't happen. This is currently being researched at Purdue University in conjunction with International Beryllium (IB). In addition, IB has a nice aluminum-beryllium alloy business making lightweight and strong components for the aerospace industry (and of course a beryllium mine). Obviously, I am long IB but it was because they seemed to be interested in being an actual company with real products rather than just a speculative stock that I first got involved. They have been slaughtered over the past two years but might represent good potential value right now. An interesting alternative to the thorium story and maybe worth a look.
"In five years I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore." Those comments from Thorsten Heins have set the tech press abuzz. Many note Heins' remarks, which follow past comments about BlackBerry (BBRY +4.3%) taking a cautious approach to tablets, seem strange given the market's staggering growth. But an explanation appears to lie in March remarks from Heins about BlackBerry pursuing "a mobile-computing experience" that allows users "to carry one computing device." Instead of competing in a hotly contested tablet market, BlackBerry seems to be pushing a vision of (BB10) smartphones paired with PC/tablet docking peripherals. Time will tell if they'll be more successful here than Motorola. [View news story]
I believe Heins might be referring to something that was predicted over ten years ago but which went the other way. At on time, the thought was that computer displays (flat, organic, flexible, touch-sensitive) would be ubiquitous and that we could all carry enough computer power and memory around in our pockets (i.e. in our phones) with some sort of NFC communication to the ever-present display devices. These devices were anticipated to be embedded in desks, in counters, in walls, etc. Now recent history went the other way; display devices were expensive enough and difficult enough to make that everyone carries their own display/input device (plus phone communications) and computer power and memory are ubiquitously available in the cloud. I believe that Heins is referring to the fact that cheap flexible, fast, printable displays are coming soon and so the new model for mobile devices will place more emphasis on a personal portable computer and memory (i.e. a smartphone) powering cheap, ubiquitous input/display devices with additional memory and computing power available in the cloud when needed. This will de-emphasize the importance of the portable display system found in current tablets.
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
Tack - I hear what you're saying but have to add that money is also motivation to invest, both in new companies and from outside into a country's bonds. As such, don't you think there would come a time when those investors would simply realize there is no payback to be had (even at zero risk). If what you believe is true (and I partially agree with you) and every country can simply create all the money it needs, what happens when external constraints (of resources or capital) begin to raise their ugly head? Hint - history shows that this leads to the ends of many empires. While money may have started as solely a medium of exchange, now it is clearly so much more.
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
marcap - Wow! Complete information theories and the rational investor theories have been debunked so long ago, it astonishes me to hear that you think you invest every time with complete information about every company you long or short. It's only a matter of what you consider complete and reliable information (hint - if you believe that financial statements reflect complete and reliable information, good luck). For my purposes, I evaluated both BB10 and the Z10 based on a technological background, then projected customer loyalty, pent-up demand, and future market acceptance before going long BB. Using 12-month trailing estimates would have been (and was) such a poor method for evaluating BB's potential that it was completely useless (despite the number of SA writers who chose exactly that approach); in this case, THAT was incomplete information. Based on my returns since September, I am quite happy with my evaluation methodology in the case of BB.
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
marcap - Strictly speaking, you are right about the claimed facts not being completely proven. You are welcome to wait until they are proven through BB's next quarterly report and miss the next 20% climb up. However, many of us in the investment world need to make decisions based on incomplete information all the time. Your desire to be overly pedantic about the quality of the incomplete information may lead you to make incorrect decisions. Michael has produced quality information before to refute completely unsubstantiated rumors. On that basis, many of us at SA trust him; but you don't have to. No one is trying that hard to convince you but you must realize that the "information" (read, opinions) that you provide are not proven any better (and probably much worse in many cases). Regular readers are aware of your bias so further comments from you probably do not support your case as well as you think they do. Feel free to invest as you will.
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
He may have won the PR battle, but I don't think he's won the debate at all. His arguments compare apples and oranges. He is clearly a Keynesian (but likely recognizes that past US govts have only played one side of Keyne's formula) but his arguments against "austerity" (or fiscal responsibility as I like to call it) raise a complete strawman in equating austerity with severe cuts in entitlements and tax cuts. This is incorrect; it is only the interpretation of the current Republicans. Simply put "austerity" is fiscal responsibility; making a balanced budget and living within our means. Some countries cut back on spending, some raise taxes or various combinations of both. Austerity today is a direct consequence of overspending yesterday. The fear many have is that if we continue to overspend through this recession, the resulting debt burden will become insurmountable and have many more dire consequences than tightening the belt now. Austerity, per se, is not the real problem but current proposed implementations might be targeting savings in unappetizing ways. However, Krugman seems to be adverse towards saying how and when the pain should be inflicted and on whom. There will undoubtedly be pain and for any economist (even a Nobel prize winning one) to think we can avoid any pain is completely disingenuous.
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
MPF - Thanks for the reply. Of course you're right that the problem needs to be addressed. But this should only consider BB traders not investors. Eventually, I have faith they will completely address this issue along with others. In the short term, this may affect sales or returns if people are insistent that it must work only in a certain way. To date, that doesn't seem to have been a problem and the "workarounds" (syncing through the cloud) seems acceptable to most users. Anyone who complains continuously about the change in the Outlook sync feature is likely trying to move the stock price. BB is aware of the problem and is working on it; more complaining won't lead to a solution any faster. If they are completely dissatisfied with the BB response (and are not trying to manipulate the stock price), they would simply quietly return their BB for something they like more and get on with their lives. Hate-ons sound a lot like manipulation to me, not like legitimate issues.
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
I am simply amazed that basic thinking about people, corporations governments living within their means has been painted as such an evil thing. Sure, people are unhappy when this happens but we certainly should be able to live with the presence of very real resource and labor constraints. If we could simply monetize the problem away, it would be wonderful but history shows that the real physical constraints cannot be ignored forever. I can agree with Krugman that the solutions proposed by the 1% (less entitlements vs. more taxes) seem class-based, but the alternatives proposed by others seem unworkable. I believe that history will show the CBs simply acted too soon to prevent a depression rather than allowing massive deflation followed by QE (i.e. more banks and other companies should have been allowed to fail first before applying the stimulative fix). The result of their fix will be not to avoid depression but to simply spread it out over more years and make it a bit shallower. Neither Keynesians nor "austerians" have yet proposed a sensible way out of this problem so we are all witness to another "race to the bottom' in trying to determine which of the two bad positions is worse. We clearly need a third solution.
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
Sorry, more charitably. If you are really only complaining about the feature and not simply trying to bash BB (and thereby manipulate their stock downward), I understand that you have a point. BB made a judgement that there first approach would be acceptable to a public that accepts "the cloud" more and more daily. For some people, this was the wrong decision. My understanding is that BB is working on a solution but, as a computer programmer (past life), I also know it takes time to get these things perfect. So, if you don't want to wait for the correct solution a little bit longer, than you personally should get rid of your Z10. There is a possibility that some people may hate waiting and will similarly return their BB. The fear among BB longs that this could be a big problem, is what allowed the Detwiler Fenton rumor of unusual and large numbers of returns to push the stock down. However, that has been refuted to my satisfaction, so it's clearly not the big problem some expected, so I don't expect user dissatisfaction to adversely affect total Z10 returns in the future. That is why for BB overall this is a non-issue. But I do hope they put out a BB10 update and take care of the original complaint soon and I'm pretty sure they will be responsive and get this right along with the many other things that BB10 and the Z10 have gotten right so far.
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
Early feedback on U.K./Canadian BlackBerry Q10 (BBRY -4%) sales indicate volumes below expectations, says Cleveland Research. The firm also thinks Z10 sell-thru is likely half of what it was around launch time, and believes BB10 build targets for the next few quarters could fall to 6M-8M from 10M-12M. Likewise, Pac Crest remains bearish, and calls the U.K./Canadian Q10 launches a "mess." The remarks follow a pessimistic note about BB10 sales on Monday from Canaccord, and one on April 25 from Wedge Partners. Jefferies has been more positive. [View news story]
BlackBerry: Focus On The Long Term [View article]
BlackBerry: Focus On The Long Term [View article]
BlackBerry: Focus On The Long Term [View article]
BlackBerry: Focus On The Long Term [View article]
The comment about the keyboard is an OPINION also not a fact but, admittedly not an actual lie. I suggested yongzhou was not being very clever because, again, there are good analyses on SA and elsewhere that would suggest there was some pent-up demand for, and loyalty to, physical keyboards on a smartphone. Personally, I don't like them. But I'm at least smart enough to realize that there may be a substantial number of people who do. Making investment decisions based upon what one personally does or doesn't like is IDIOTIC. Hence, my comments
Uranium's Dirty Little Secret - Investors Take Note [View article]
"In five years I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore." Those comments from Thorsten Heins have set the tech press abuzz. Many note Heins' remarks, which follow past comments about BlackBerry (BBRY +4.3%) taking a cautious approach to tablets, seem strange given the market's staggering growth. But an explanation appears to lie in March remarks from Heins about BlackBerry pursuing "a mobile-computing experience" that allows users "to carry one computing device." Instead of competing in a hotly contested tablet market, BlackBerry seems to be pushing a vision of (BB10) smartphones paired with PC/tablet docking peripherals. Time will tell if they'll be more successful here than Motorola. [View news story]
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
Paul Krugman: "The austerity agenda looks a lot like a simple expression of upper-class preferences, wrapped in a facade of academic rigor. What the top 1% wants becomes what economic science says we must do." Ken Langone responds: Runaway deficits are the older generation "stealing" from the young, and Paul Krugman has never met a payroll and doesn't have to worry about profit margins. [View news story]
BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]