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  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Classic [View article]
    That's for the Z3. The Z3 is cookie cutter parts from the dust shelfs. 5mp camera, old chips, sensors, low res screen, these are parts that Foxconn has extra somewhere or can buy in the clearance rack anywhere.


    If you are a manufacturer, there is nothing to lose taking on the inventory with excess capacity from parts that are next to getting buried.


    The classic is a different story, expensive glass and more "in demand" valuable parts, QWERTY makes manufaturing and exposing to selling price dumb. Better to have BBRY pay for it. I would be suprised if any manufacturer is stupid enough to go the Z3 route for the passport or classic.

    The basic manufacturing problems are always the same, make too much and you risk inventory, make too little, you lose scaling and increase unit cost. That's is why everyone lose money on smartphone except for 2-3.
    Aug 16 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Classic [View article]
    The reason is simple, email was 50% of what a phone does back then, now it is 10% and besides

    When the Bold was happening, you do realize in order to type the letter how are you", you need to punch in number 5-5 wait 6-1 wait then 8-3 wait and so forth and that is just" how". The QWERTY was god when compared to that. Now, there is very little added value since if you have not noticed, a touch based keyboard is also QWERTY.
    Aug 15 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Classic [View article]
    I loved the bold too. In 2008. 2014 not so much.

    I'm always skeptical of any new BBRY phones for one simple reason: It is on BB10. BB10 does not sell other than on deep discounts. You'll lose a shitload of money making phones more expensive than you can sell (as was the case with Z10, Z30 and Q10)
    Aug 15 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWOT-Ing The BlackBerry Classic [View article]
    S - Clearly John Chen has positioned itself as an enterprise phone and this is the epitome of that effort. You can forget about spec, if you love the bold you would love the classic and have a chance to convert. No chance in this earth it will appeal to new users no matter the spec of functions.

    W - BB10 is not been accepted beyond a cheap price point as the Z30, Z10, Q10 are utter disatster in several billion in writedowns. Highly secured enterprise has ordered more Bolds instead. BB10 is simply a liability for every expensive BBRY phone. enterprise love the bold because it runs through legacy BES not BES10.

    This is just a Q10 with a trackpad. Sorry, I fail to see the reason the Q10 failed because was the missing tool belt which to me is a lame excuse, let's face the fact, it's BB10. The Q10 failed and a tool belt is not going to change that, common sense.

    O - regain market share at a higher price point and reestablish BBRY as a premium brand. The biggest problem for BBRY over the past three years is the brand went from hero to zero and the selling price is a reflection of that. BBRY won't go anywhere selling cheap Z3 as they will never win a price war with no scaling, verticals or anything.

    T - This thing is the less expensive version of the Passport which would naturally eat into that phone first. A 1440 X 1440 means it is expensive to manufacturer. It's hard to make money when the darn thing is so expensive, no scaling, no carrier support and BBRY is just not known to fetch premiun price. Like all expensive BB10 phones, it has the potential to burn hundreds of million in shareholder equity. There is a reason why many argue BBRY to get out of hardware.
    Aug 15 06:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-earnings gain evaporates for J.C. Penney [View news story]
    "My last trip to JCP, it seemed that there were a lot more customers in there than when Ron and Ackman were in the fold (it was practically a ghost town).

    Anecdotal, perhaps. "

    Traffic was down for the quarter. So there were not more customers. That is not ancedotal, but facts supplied my mgmt.

    Having said that, the customers that are there are not buying from the clearance bin so that was a huge improvement.
    Aug 15 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Company Inc. Heads In The Right Direction [View article]
    The biggest concern and the reason why JCP stock dropped was due to one simple fact.

    JCP projected gross margin to be in-line with Q2.

    I think most just think it is easy to improve. Yes and no. From 30% to 36% GM. yes, but 36% to 39% is a different beast. Mgmt kind of hinted to you in their guidance it is tough to get past 36%. The risk with JCP is languishing at this state which Elephant highlighted. If you are dreaming of 40% gross margins, Mgmt already hinting softly it may be tough.
    Aug 15 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZ Pass, Enterprise Server Business Will Be Key For BlackBerry's Future [View article]
    "Users connect through BES server to BB mail service and BB enterprise service, which are not for free and which are already main revenue of BB."

    That's correct. BBRY bread and butter is the legacy BES which are dinosaurs. If your business is based on selling more BBRY bolds and Curves, then good luck.

    "and in addition to that also next version of BES won't be free. "

    That would be BES12, yes they have 1.2M licenses so far committed.


    "BES 10 users = 32k in March 2014
    EZ pass = +2600 from March 2014 to June 2014
    Total BES 10 users = 32000 + 2600 (from EZ pass) + 400 = 35000 as of June 2014"

    In theory, all BES10 servers are natural upgrade to EZ pass and BES12. Duh, if you are commmiteed to BES10 by now, there is no reason not to bridge to BES12. The only stats that matter is how many are committed to convert to BES12 not how many BES10 servers there are. and it is 1.2M licenses. Put another way, 32000 signed up for free supscription to magazine X and only 2600 signed up for a magazine X1 with real fees long term. Only the committed ones matter. I don't buy the fact that the entire 32000 will convert when actual money is involved.
    Aug 14 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZ Pass, Enterprise Server Business Will Be Key For BlackBerry's Future [View article]
    I just keep it simple. BES10 is free, BBRY will never make a dime from BES10. It matters little how many servers.


    BES12 is intended to be paid. Only 2600 or 1.2M license are committed to pay for BES12. That is 5% and a huge problem. If you send 85K emails/personal salesperson to existing customers and they get a six month free trial and only 2600 take the bite so far, that is worrisome. 82K are not biting.

    the EZ pass needs to be in the 10M range to be considered a success.
    Aug 14 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EZ Pass, Enterprise Server Business Will Be Key For BlackBerry's Future [View article]
    "EZ Pass is a program started by BlackBerry in which users from older versions of BlackBerry Enterprise Server can transfer for free by getting limited edition software. Those who were using its competitors' software could switch to BlackBerry's BES10 at much lower prices. The program was launched in June 2014 and stats from the Indian segment were just made public which represent a huge success for this program."


    How can EZ pass (free) claim success if BBRY is only able to convert less than 5% so far?


    2600 customers or 1.2M licenses are less than 5% of the legacy installed base. 95% are saying hell no (so far).


    The first 5% is always the easiest to convert, the next 5% is a lot harder and so forth. BBRY EZ pass program, unless it picks up into the 10M license range is just an early warning customers are defecting in large % as a large % are not committing even for free. Only 5% are committed which should worry the heck out of BBRY.
    Aug 13 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    half the same store sale increase was due to the fact there was no home store in half their locations in April 2013-May2013. The home store launched in June 2013. The floor space was under construction. That made April-May 2014 traffic and sales (as I comps off of April/May 2013) not a good barometer of sustained success.
    Aug 13 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's QNX: Securing The Internet Of Things [View article]
    "My view is that predicting that Linux will dominate based on the intuition that "the automotive companies wish to retain control of the OS" is BS. "

    Common sense will tell you a company will not build something on top of something that requires forever royalty. It is basic economic reasons to look for free alternatives first.
    Aug 12 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's QNX: Securing The Internet Of Things [View article]
    "Assuming that QNX retains 53% market share in the following years, a conservative view given its advantages over both Microsoft and Linux"


    It's conservative because you said so? Experts have QNX losing market share.


    Turn off the power if you don't want to get hacked. When the car is on, who the hell will hack the car? And for all practical purpose, car dashboard will just be to sync up internet radios, music, maps and things like that. BBRY and you are way overplaying the security card.


    "Given the potential revenue upside from the Ford deal, using the average EV/Sales multiple for 2015 and a total revenue of $131 million, a reasonable value for QNX could be around $370 million or $0.70 per share considering 527 million shares outstanding. At a current share price of $9.3, QNX could be worth 7.5% of BlackBerry."


    A unit worth 370M is now what BBRY investors talk about. speaks to rough times.
    Aug 12 12:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMO Skeptical J.C. Penney Can Hit Breakeven Cash Flow This Year [View article]
    JCP burned 345M in FY14-Q1.


    They will burn another 300M or so in Q2.


    They'll need to borrow money from the revolver in Q3 to sustain operations, probably burn another 700M. (400M cash to build up inventory of 800M or so)


    FY14-Q4 is key. If they don't make money and show that 36% GM by then, pretty much goodnight for JCP as they will have no money for FY15. Some of their loans become due in FY2015 and how in the world will they find money to pay for that other than more shares for sale?

    The old CFO didn't mean cash flow positive, just liquidity neutral. When you take on 500M on your revolver and loosen some term like 85% to 90% access, it just means they will burn another 550M minimum in FY2014. And that is praying for Q4 success that may not materilize. All planning in the world cannot help you how many customers will come to your store in Decemeber or how many you can convert.
    Aug 12 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding BlackBerry's BBM Roadmap [View article]
    the point is if you read SEC reports from say Google or Facebook,

    North America is where the revenue is for adveritising. Facebook already tells you a mobile user in US is six times more valuable than a user in Asia. all publicly disclosed.

    You can ignore that, but that is just results.
    Aug 6 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding BlackBerry's BBM Roadmap [View article]
    "Even if the number of registered users provide a different story, growing from 130 to 160 million, the MAU figure is really the number that counts. These are hardly any numbers to be excited about."


    * That only means many abandon BBM. The fact of the matter is BBM had essentially 0 growth beyond October 2013 when BBM went cross platform. This is when the rest of the competition is growing like a mofo.

    * #1 in Indonesia/South Afrifca and Nigeria. There's not much of an ad market selling to people in third world countries. I would love to find out how they can get 100M revenue with that base of user.


    "At $29.99 per device per year, its not too pricey to deter enterprise customers from choosing to secure their employees' mobile messaging."


    It's 29.99 too much. Messenger are "free" so good luck getting people to pay for something that is free. Even the enterprise don't like to piss money away. You're not going to sell much BBM protected without BES12.
    Aug 5 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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