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wunnerful

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  • Unemployment Is The Right Metric For Janet Yellen To Guide Monetary Policy [View article]
    Mike-

    Invective article...


    I lean towards supply and demand- If you remove the demand for bonds, shouldn't
    both the price and interest rates fall? Is there also a rush to secure US bonds
    from 3rd world investments?

    I would think that as the Fed holds all it's trillions in bond purchases, they would redeem them at a premium as time permits.

    What happened to the FED Original purchases of the 2007-2008 episode? Or the
    US Govt purchases of failing companies outright?

    You're partly right- Inflation is 'waffling'... Gas prices are holding, food prices are starting
    to be discounted.

    Just a few thoughts, Mike.

    -RIC
    Feb 11, 2014. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Stagnation In Australia [View article]
    @ Jason, sure, if you ignore technology's constant march...
    Jun 2, 2013. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Fear And Panic Headed This Way [View article]
    Outcast, Kinda sums it up.

    Disclosure: I'm not buying anything...The frothing is always
    greatest at the top...
    Mar 25, 2013. 08:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: Eagle Energy Trust [View article]
    @Deneel-

    But what are the costs when you cash out of the trust?

    -Ric
    Oct 21, 2012. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agency Mortgage REITs Likely To Benefit From Treasury's Modifying Fannie, Freddie Backing Terms [View article]
    'OB' means Off the Board, or over the counter (OTC), for both
    Fannie and Freddy.

    If not for being propped up by the Feds, both would of gone
    bankrupt 3-4 years ago.

    The effect you're speaking of relative to REITs, has already
    occurred.

    What you should be addressing is changes in fed law as it
    relates to REITs.

    -Ric
    Aug 19, 2012. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco, Left For Dead [View article]
    Rabish-

    Interesting, and nice work.

    We all have to consider that a lot of leading corps have money offshore in tax havens; The USA would better serve itself if congress allowed that money to come ashore for use in buying other USA based companies and R&D, don't cha think?

    Oops! Doesn't current fed tax code allow that? I know R&D is a write off and 'buying' other companies are usually reverted to 'merger' status for tax advantage.

    What everybody has ignored is the current condition of the largest consumers of Cisco products in the USA market-
    Government. From the Feds to local school districts, they are being squeezed as to their budgets and therefore not upgrading equipment.

    I work for a school district, and heard a network engineer the other day grumbling that 'Trying to make 5-10 year old Cisco routers
    perform to current demands is like asking the Mayflower to take us to the moon'...The district bought skid loads of Dells to upgrade it's
    computer labs with Bimbos 7 this summer, but, alas, no new
    switches/servers...

    The indicator here, is that most tech companies out perform in good times and under perform in bad times.

    Rabish, you might be right- It might be a good time to acquire shares of CSCO, but that depends upon how long the economy takes to pull itself out of the quagmire of the current economy.

    Hey- What about Dell Computer?

    -Ric
    Jul 26, 2012. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs, Nightmares, And Hidden Taxes [View article]
    "The (Federal) government taxes to reduce demand for goods and services. " Really? Shoot, I thought that Congress authorizes and the IRS implements. It's still a 'cash' transfer, however you wish to
    look at it. And, the lowest survivors in this US economy still survive on cash. Or non survivors, for that matter.

    Towards the thought: Why would the Federal Govt want to reduce demand for goods and services during a 'great recession', that
    seems unabated?

    Please explain.

    I neither, wish to get into a debate about origins of inflation, temporary or otherwise. The Fed is in a bind, and hasn't
    realized it. Maybe they have, and are stalling.

    Inflation is very real for food as well as many other products,
    lately, specially in the last year. Does the Fed see this? I would think, that Bernanke and his Associates are well aware of such,
    but once again, in a bind.

    As far as car payments, yes interest rates are lower, but qualifying
    is harder due to higher credit requirements. Guess it all equals
    out, does it not?

    I could go on but-

    The Devil is always in the details...We all want black and white
    decisions about all this, do we not? But there is no such thing-
    It's grey, and, unless we're willing to individually dig into the details,
    we all end up short.

    That's what Seeking Alpha is all about.

    I've enjoyed this, and developed a great amount of respect
    for you and your argument, Larry.

    May we meet again-

    Ric
    Jul 23, 2012. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs, Nightmares, And Hidden Taxes [View article]
    "What about Govt demand for cash against private sector demand?"

    "There is no such thing."

    Yes there is- it's called taxes...Whether it's state or local. We've already heard the present administration's argument for fed taxes
    above the $250k mark, or is now the $1 million mark?

    I agree completely about "it is the competition for goods and services that matters", or more likely, the lack, there of.

    Car payments get lower as owners extend financing over longer
    periods...Does this mean that car prices have dropped?
    Initially, 4 years ago during the restructuring of the US car industry,
    yes. Now? I doubt it.

    Food prices usually reflect climate conditions on an annual basis:
    Currently, corn is up 16+%, wheat 8%, soybeans 24%.
    http://bit.ly/LFnWiu
    as of July 20th;
    How do we separate shortages from inflation? Or can we?

    One way, for the average consumer, is to observe the cost of average staples- I don't consume corn syrup laden pop, but I've noticed the price of a 12 pack of 12 oz cans of 'house branded'
    pop rise from $2.00 to $2.50. Yet the same market will sell you 5 12 packs for $10.

    This tells me that supply and demand is still very much in effect.

    Anecdotal prices may not tell us much, but that's all the average consumer sees, or needs to know. They are not concerned with
    Fed target rates, just as you enjoy a discount on your heating oil as compared to a previous year's costs.

    As towards housing prices, distorted originally by unbiased financing when lenders sold off mortgages to be sliced and diced by investment bankers into CDOs, so the lender had no responsibility as towards the management of such debt, now typified by foreclosure and being purchased by investors for recovery and reuse as rentals; Who knows? Most home prices
    (used) are still out of the range of affordability of first time home buyers.

    What we do know, is whatever the Fed targets, add at least 5%
    to it's target rate, for real inflation...Many here would argue for
    around an addition of 10%+ for the year in question.

    Wages haven't kept up and they won't. I agree completely about the lack of demand for labor. You, and I, know that this will only accelerate the unemployment rate.

    Appreciate the note about Long treasuries, and concur about
    non-callabes. Boy, do we negotiate with our checkbooks!
    Well spoken.

    -Ric
    Jul 22, 2012. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earning Season: Where Is The Growth? [View article]
    Too much technical 'mumbo jumbo' and not enough facts.

    I lean towards Ari's synopsis.

    Another writer that should of gone away in May....

    -Ric
    Jul 22, 2012. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs, Nightmares, And Hidden Taxes [View article]
    Larry J-

    Well spoken...

    But we have to temper everything by the inclusion of Govt
    tampering, whether it's via the Fed, or congress, and the unwillingness of most money institutions to lend in the current economic environment, or should we say, risk aversion?

    You are correct in your observation that we have no credit expansion, but inflation in most sectors are very real and with the every day person. Answer this: How much did you pay per lb for a Sirloin steak, as compared to 2-3 years ago? Are car prices any cheaper than 2-3 years ago?

    Food prices have climbed at least 10% in the last year; Electricity
    prices just climbed 10-20% in the last year. No Inflation? What city do you live in- If you haven't seen such, I'd like to move there when I retire!

    We also have to add to the equation, of more regulations regarding financial institutions in the wake of the 'libor' scandal, JP Morgan &
    Chase's folly, HSBC as a conduit for Mexican Cartels, etc
    .
    As far as cities/states hitting the wall, California now has the dubious honor of a third city declaring bankruptcy: San Bernardino.
    I imagine there are going to be quite a few more. How many
    states are on the edge?

    Your 2005 'long bond' argument would hold water, except most issuers reserve the right to redeem their bonds before maturation,
    and have, as they issued cheaper interest bearing bonds when rates via the Fed dropped.

    Heck, I don't even know if coupon bonds (munis) can be called, but in the case they can't, when a city goes bankrupt what happens to the bondholders? Generally, Kaput.Gone.

    As far as the 'Precipice' of 2013 towards the capping of Military spending via the 'Fiscal Cliff', among other things, I suspect that
    the 1.3 million unemployed is too conservative. Shoot for about
    2.5 million, added to the existing unemployed. Probably not before the election.

    Govt demand for goods against private sector demand?
    What about Govt demand for cash against private sector demand?

    Sure, they print it, but when does the light at the end of the tunnel darken, and hyperinflation kick in? Or Stagflation?

    I lived through the early '70s of the Nixon debacle; It's already starting again.

    The Fed may WANT, but they rarely get such. The problem with the Fed, is that all they have is pepper spray to resist an attacker;
    (deflation/inflation) but it always injures nearby non-combatants
    including the average public.

    What we have, is nearly the entire US investing population sitting on the porch, waiting to see what will happen next.

    -Ric
    Jul 22, 2012. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Get In Before Fed Actions [View article]
    PHD in sun tanning, I hope you never get skin cancer!

    Your post kinda sums it up-

    "• So food inflation can be a more persistent problem than oil or metal supply, and may limit the printing hopes in China."

    You forgot to mention food inflation in the USA.

    "• The last thing the world economy needs now is more paper to artificially accumulate positions, and distort market prices even more. "

    Without that paper, most economies would plunge into the 2nd
    Great Depression, as the Great Recession continues.
    And should anyone think the Great Recession is bad, the 2nd Great Depression will result in soup lines without any soup.

    Market prices are starting to realize there is no light at the end of the tunnel...

    "• So growth is being constrained and the supply chain is negatively affected because of artificially high commodity prices. "

    Corn prices are not 'artificially high'. Due to weather (drought)
    in the US Midwest, corn prices by the bushel are up substantially.

    You can argue about commodity supply and demand, but the
    devil is always in the details.Ignore such to your peril.

    " • Funds are manipulating prices by creating artificial demand through paper trading of markets. "

    Funds trade towards the benefit of their owners. I doubt whether
    any particular fund 'trades to create artificial demand'.

    " • …even those commodities that are essential to everyday living, and end up hurting the people they are trying to help. "

    I can't argue with this: But, that is the nature of capitalism.
    By the very nature of the people of the USA, we adapt. Can't
    afford beef? We buy chicken and pork, instead.

    It will never be fair; But what IS fair? Do you want socialism?
    Yes, the markets lie, but they will eventually cut their own throats.
    Let them.

    Just wait for the bleeding to start, to take advantage of it.

    -Ric
    Jul 20, 2012. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Is America's Best Bargain In Manufacturing [View article]
    The Motley Fool just posted a review of GLW-

    http://bit.ly/Mt0dCN

    -Ric
    Jul 14, 2012. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Is America's Best Bargain In Manufacturing [View article]
    hmmmm...
    http://bit.ly/Mt0dCN
    Jul 14, 2012. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where To Find Stocks With Yields Double Those In The U.S. [View article]
    Great-
    pink stocks? some countries withholding up to 30%?

    SDRL? With the fall to the mid eighties in the barrel price
    of oil, I'd reconsider.

    NMM? A Greek based shipping company while Greece
    is about to be kicked out of the EU...hmmm

    Go for it! Lemmings...

    -Ric
    Jul 6, 2012. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Drill It In: Stanley Black & Decker Is A Top Industrial Pick [View article]
    Have any of you ever used Stanley/Black and decker consumer products in the last ten years? Coffee brewer pots that spill
    coffee rather than pour it into a cup?

    Drills that demolish themselves, competing with Harbor
    Freight on quality.

    All this stuff is made in China, which has competed on price
    until the failure of quality.

    You can argue until you are blue in the face about valuations,
    but if the customers are running screaming towards the doors,
    don't argue until you've tried some of those products.

    You just might join those 'screaming customers'.

    -Ric
    Jul 2, 2012. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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