Seeking Alpha

guyinUSA

guyinUSA
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View guyinUSA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • U.S. electric vehicle sales +23% in 2014 [View news story]
    Tesla is the third highest selling EV behind Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt.

    Does this mean Tesla missed the year forecast of 35k sales for 2014?
    Jan 7, 2015. 08:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Roadster Upgrade Is A Very Big Deal [View article]
    This is just a retrofit for the 2,400 Roadsters already sold. No plan for new Roadsters? This doesn't impact bottom line!!

    Why is this a big deal for Tesla? ModelX is, but that has been delayed for 2 years.
    Dec 28, 2014. 01:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Battery Swapping Station Carries Great Benefits [View article]
    This would be very inconvenient as the swap station is middle of nowhere and would also require Tesla to maintain an inventory of owner batteries to be returned... I like to take the scenic route from LA to SFO
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    BATTERY SWAP question.

    How will Tesla reconcile old batteries (some worth scrap) swapped for new batteries for $50? Owner's batteries may be > 30k cheaper than swapped battery, so would Tesla require people to return the battery. This would be very inconvenient as the swap station is middle of nowhere and would also require Tesla to maintain an inventory of owner batteries to be returned...
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call [View article]
    It doesn't matter until it blows up. Q3 is a small step towards that.. Will happen sometime in 2015.

    Btw - Tesla's debt rating is also junk .
    Nov 14, 2014. 04:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: What Matters Most? [View article]
    Only thing that matters is Elon Musk looks and stays cool. Nothing else matters..
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai exempts Model S buyers from license fees [View news story]

    Main questions for Musk in TSLA's Q3 earning call will be
    1. Estimate for Q4, can they meet 35k for 2014?
    2. Timeline for Model X status? Last call it was production prototype Q4 2014 and production/first shipment Q2 2015.
    3. Q4 2015 run rate of 100k status.
    Are three of these have been questioned by analyst
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Telling The Truth? Elon Musk Or Wards Auto? [View article]
    Did Musk break any rules when he selectively released information of Sept 2014 during the quiet period before Q3 earnings?
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors discloses sales growth for September in North America [View news story]
    Tesla shipped 1000 in sept 2013

    1. So 66% YOY growth takes you to 1660 in Sept 2014. Is that really incredible?

    2. Estimates show that they shipped 4300 in Sept 2014 worldwide.

    The Q3 estimates are 7800.

    SEC should look into Musk's vague statements in the quiet period. They should release all of the data.
    Oct 28, 2014. 12:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: At The Forefront Of The EV Revolution [View article]
    Making an EV is easy -- many hobbyist have been doing it over last 30 years..

    Tesla made a $100,000 Ev that had superior torque and acceleration. The real innovation was in battery packaging (9000 small cells) to get the power density they achieved. But it is a costly.

    Prius, Volt and BMW i8 are more innovative (IMHO) that use only electric most of the time and both electric+IC when needed to give the acceleration/range..

    - Most volt drivers run in pure EV >90% of the time..
    - Having a smaller battery is more cost effective.. good for the environment
    - designing a hybrid car is more difficult than pure EV

    Shifting from producing Hybrid to pure EV is easy BUT not the other way around!!! This is one of TSLA's biggest threat.
    Oct 27, 2014. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors, Hype Or Revolution? [View article]
    If Tesla is such a great car ...

    http://bit.ly/1tIS2Nj
    Oct 21, 2014. 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors, Hype Or Revolution? [View article]
    @Sudhakar

    LT is active in twitter... He is still short Tesla. FYI.

    http://bit.ly/14nlqLP

    PS. The arguments of Tesla bulls are weak and resort name calling. No wonder LT, Paulo and many others are staying away.. :(
    Oct 21, 2014. 10:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors, Hype Or Revolution? [View article]
    Instead of name calling, how about talking numbers? Q3 numbers are dodgy at best and Q4/year is near impossible. Do you think Tesla can sell 35,000 this year?

    The main indicator for TSLA has been their quarterly shipments (revenue). Profitability hasn't mattered. If they do not meet Q3 or Q4, it would be disastrous to the stock price.

    I have been both bearish and bullish about TSLA. So if you have an argument that TSLA is going higher I would appreciate your opinion.
    Oct 20, 2014. 07:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors, Hype Or Revolution? [View article]
    Tesla sales in China for Q3 was ~1300. Pretty underwhelming.

    Worldwide
    July - 1250
    Aug - 1800

    SEPT breakdown -

    2500 US
    500 China
    70 Canada
    290 neth
    32 swiss
    104 norway
    105 UK
    26 Denmark
    56 Germany
    19 France
    Total ~ 3702 (need 4700 in Sept to meet Q3 target)

    Meeting Q3 sale also looks daunting .. China and Europe haven't come to rescue WOW

    Somebody needs to write an article about this.. Paulo should have something in the pipeline.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors, Hype Or Revolution? [View article]
    The year shipment of 35k is in trouble. Q3 will be close, but because of the last minute sales on demo/inventory at deep discounts they should meet Q3 the numbers. This will be visible in increasingly slim profit(loss).

    Musk will explain the missed Q4 numbers because people wanting to buy the Model D that ships next year.. Or on the shutdown for retooling.. OR lower gas prices OR Mars mission of SpaceX .. Market has bought into his explanations, but this time may not work.

    Market credibility is eroding
    1. What about Model X? supposed to be sold Q2 2015? That will be delayed again.
    2. Underwhelming "D and something else."
    3. They were supply constrained in the past. But now they have enough batteries and run rate. So that cannot be a reason.
    4. Low gas prices is affecting hybrid sales (down 10%) and Tesla is no different.

    Tesla is loosing its shine and missing the years forecast of 35k is very likely.
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
188 Comments
274 Likes