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guyinUSA

guyinUSA
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  • Tesla Motors has 500M reasons to build the Gigafactory in California [View news story]
    Santos,

    Don't you remember from the call? Musk is not showing all his cards. He have lost of surprises in store.. Just wait for the ride.. This will zoom to $1000 and beyond.
    Aug 12 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    solucky

    Yes, I said it was an inexpensive part. Previously they replaced the entire drive train for this. Now they will open the existing drive train of people and insert a new part. It was said this will be done within the day. (cable issue is different).

    1. Most of the drive trains need this fix. So is this more like a recall?
    2. What would be a cost of servicing all the car drivetrains? People who come in might also want to add the free underbody shield. Most cost..
    Aug 2 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    Is there a drive train recall coming up? Not sure if this will be called a recall but looks like most of Model S have to come in to get their drive train fixed. Previously they were completely replacing the drive train but now they will need to add an inexpensive part to fix the problem. They discussed on the call and this will be announced on the coming days.

    Is my understanding correct on the drive train issue on Model S? Any comments?
    Aug 1 01:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Could Be Back At $260 In No Time [View article]
    QTR,

    Tesla profits (nonGAAP) are narrowing in spite of increased production. Whats the reason? Is just Model X R&D?

    nonGAAP
    Mar 2013 - 13c/share
    June 2013 -22c/share
    Sep 2013 - 13c/share
    Dec 2013 - 37c/share
    Mar 2014 - 14c/share
    June 2014 -13c/share

    Any comment on the quality control issue? Not sure if this is a recall but seems like most of Model S have to come in to get their drive train fixed. They need an inexpensive part added to fix the problem, and this will be done during Q3. They discussed on the call and this will be announced on the coming days.
    Aug 1 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sneak Peek At Tesla's Earnings [View article]
    And did they say almost all drivetrains need to serviced to add a shim? Isn't this more like a recall?

    The part is cheap but is there an estimate what is the cost of service?
    Jul 31 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sneak Peek At Tesla's Earnings [View article]
    Tesla posted loss of 50c/share (GAAP)

    non GAAP it was profit of 13c/share

    Non-GAAP excludes stock compensation, non cast interest expense and residual value/lease accounting. First two are diluting the stock and third is future liability.

    But overall even non GAAP profits are lower...

    nonGAAP
    Mar 2013 - 13c/share
    June 2013 -22c/share
    Sep 2013 - 13c/share
    Dec 2013 - 37c/share
    Mar 2014 - 14c/share
    June 2014 -13c/share

    So the losses are widening.. People will argue that this is investments into Model X, gigafactory vs. warranty costs and quality issues.

    Do they breakdown what their service/warranty expenditure is?
    Jul 31 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla Top The Whisper Number This Quarter? [View article]
    Musk on call - "we are not showing all our cards."
    Jul 31 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla Top The Whisper Number This Quarter? [View article]
    Tesla posted loss of 50c/share (GAAP)

    non GAAP it was profit of 13c/share

    Non-GAAP excludes stock compensation, non cast interest expense and residual value/lease accounting. First two are diluting the stock and third is future liability.

    But overall even non GAAP profits are lower...

    nonGAAP
    Mar 2013 - 13c/share
    June 2013 -22c/share
    Sep 2013 - 13c/share
    Dec 2013 - 37c/share
    Mar 2014 - 14c/share
    June 2014 -13c/share

    So the losses are widening.. People will argue that this is investments into Model X and gigafactory vs warranty and service costs.
    Jul 31 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Gigafactory Financing And Earnings [View article]
    Do not hide behind the production interruption for retooling for a possible missed delivery in Q2. The interruption was in July and did not effect 2nd quarter numbers!! Anyway, didn't Tesla know that they needed to retool to increase Model S output and for Model X? So this should be irrelevant even for 3rd quarter.

    I do not expect Tesla will miss the numbers this year.. The estimates are pretty low ..
    Jul 28 11:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Factors That Will Cause SolarCity Earnings To Disappoint [View article]
    Is SCTY in a short squeeze? I was thinking not because the short interest dropped from ~14M to 11M. So what is pushing this higher?

    I thought SCTY had significant near term headwinds including increased tariff on Chinese solar panels.

    What is the bull case for SCTY, when compared to other solar installers and vertically integrated solar companies? I don't see much. (other than MUSK name)
    Jul 27 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vipshop Holdings: Overpriced Or A Value Chinese E-Commerce Company? [View article]
    Reuben:

    Thanks for the article. I have been seeing that VIPS was overpriced for long time.. Hope that the stock price reflects the valuations soon.

    Keep writing more.
    Jul 22 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    ==>Tesla not making money selling Model S at $110,000 average price.<==

    My beef is that Model S base price is $71,000 and their average selling price is 54% higher. This increment is for high margin items like rear seat cupholders, $2k for supercharger upgrade, premium features for Model S. I imagine if they had sold all their Model S at $71,000 how much money would they be loosing.

    Extrapolating this to Model 3 selling at base price of $35,000 will be very interesting. People in this price range are much more price conscious. Will not be ready to dole out ~$15-$20k of upgrades.Tesla really depends on these upgrades to make any money..So IMHO Tesla being able to make money with a $35,000 price range will be very challenging.
    Jul 20 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    Tesla Bulls believe all of hardware included in Model S like the Supercharger hardware and under body Ti shield are essentially free. Yet I wonder why they still do not make much money (lose money) selling cars at $110,000 each. That in spite of all the tax breaks and support.

    I still believe that Superchargers are necessary for marketing and to support sales. It is not a revenue source by itself.
    Jul 18 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    Jolinar:

    Each supercharger station costs tesla ~$300,000. Today they have ~150 stations at total cost of $45M. Of these there are only 4 stations in Asia, They have to expand in a big way in China and Europe to keep up their sales...

    They charge $2,000 for the supercharger hardware in the Model S 65kWh and cost included in 85kWh cars. The cost of the supercharger hardware included in Model S to Tesla can only be speculated. Assuming a 25% gross margin they have said they make in general, it comes to margin of ~$500/ vehicle. With 35k vehicles sold they have made $17.5M off them.

    So they are currently at a loss of $27.5M on supercharger costs. As they expand in Asia and Europe this will increase..
    Jul 16 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Gave Us A Goldmine [View article]
    Dream on Dumbdalal.

    1. Superchargers haven't made a penny and build at a huge cost to tesla.

    2. The whole supercharger network dispenses energy less than half what a single gas station dispenses. whats the point? its certainly not revenue.

    3. Superchargers are barely used.. They are a necessity for marketing and survival. Nothing more...

    PS. TSLA dropped $10 after you posted this article. Keep it up.
    Jul 16 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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