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  • Mannkind Reality Check Redux: 82.4 Million Reasons To Leave Your Lover! [View article]
    That's the truth. In the end, this comes down to 1 thing: Does Afrezza become a blockbuster? If it is a massive hit, this is a 50 stock unbelievably quickly. If it sort of sells and there's hope for Technosphere, then maybe we see 15-20. If it doesn't sell then this goes to 0. Quite simple. Anything until the numbers start to come in is conjecture and useful for short term speculation only.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi's New Medicines Seminar: Implications For Afrezza [View article]
    I loaded up on TSLA 2 years ago, a few months before their famous April 1st announcement and eventual May ER that triggered the stamped and changed the Streets perception of them overnight. I just couldn't believe the stock was so cheap - trading at a cap of like 2-3 billion. For something so completely obvious to work with an ace CEO at the helm. I feel this way about MNKD now and though I'm by no means an oracle I can't help but see the same situation presented:

    A) A product with demand and that is 10X better than current solutions
    B) Amazing inventor as a CEO leading the way
    C) Big bear thesis and sadly undervalued stock in comparison to the potential

    I expect in 6 - 8 months the short thesis will be destroyed and the stock will be up significantly from todays close. Certainly there's risk between then and now but I think it's well overdone and unbelievably conservative creating a life changing opportunity for aggressive bulls. The mind boggles at how wrong the Street has this one - but history reminds you the Street is often behind the curve on these stories and buys the fear even after the hard part has been done.
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi's New Medicines Seminar: Implications For Afrezza [View article]
    Read diabetic message boards a vast majority of people who post have been waiting for this to come out and can't wait not because of needles per se but because the reaction is the closest to a "normal" person ever produced. And then there's the millions of diabetics who don't even know this is coming and will benefit from word of mouth, advertising and their doctors suggestion.
    Nov 21, 2014. 11:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi's New Medicines Seminar: Implications For Afrezza [View article]
    I tend to agree - and they're big deals. But the current pricing of this stock simply is either over exaggerating those risks or oblivious to the potential all together. I believe the Street is oblivious.

    MNKD doesn't need every diabetic to have this therapy and it isn't even designed for that. But enough will and I'm still confused why even a poor adoption isn't priced in. Rare to see Wall St. so pessimistic!

    However, it's been a hell of a buying opportunity! My AVG price is about $5.00 (bought a monster load at $4.75 + LEAP's because I'd hate myself if I didn't) at this point and with new inflows I expect to be raising this average price quite soon.

    To your point it will be end game when insurance picks it up because pricing is in-line. And it will be a cataclysm when adoption is higher than these genius analysts would have ever guessed. Like TSLA. Like AAPL with the iPhone and like any other company that changed the paradigm.
    Nov 21, 2014. 11:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi's New Medicines Seminar: Implications For Afrezza [View article]
    There's times I look at my MNKD long position and think to myself: "Are you crazy?". But, then I go back to calculating very modest numbers (which I truly believe is be far exceeded) and do the match and I can't see how this is not a $50 stock. Revenues in the USA alone could put it there not to mention the rest of the world. Not to mention Technosphere. Not to mention Afrezza is 10X better than any other therapy on the market.

    How does Wall St. have this so wrong? This is how I felt about TSLA 2 years ago this time and the timing is looking similar. I think it's getting stormy in shortsville soon in regards to MNKD...
    Nov 21, 2014. 06:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi's New Medicines Seminar: Implications For Afrezza [View article]
    How does this relate to MNKD? Couldn't it be something else entirely and very likely so? I'm insanely long MNKD, but curious on your insight here.
    Nov 21, 2014. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hortonworks IPO Uncovers Little Revenues And Great Potential For The Hadoop Comapny [View article]
    That's fairly impressive revenue from New Relic. They look like they could grow 100% through fiscal 2015. If they IPO at a valuation of less than 2 billion, I'm buying that. I bet it comes in closer to 3 billion though.

    Interesting to see that some of these companies are willing to give the public a stake at them before what is typical from SV the last 6 years; with a cold IPO market from many of the startups. WDAY and DATA were getting fairly mature when they went public in 2013. If anything, this could signal that VC's are starting to put pressure on exiting some positions and 2015 could be a bumper crop of IPO's in the big data realm.

    If HDP and NEWR have a decent IPO and their revenues impress next year, it could cause a lot of excitement in this sector and a handful of IPO's should come out to even higher valuations next year. Could be the beginning of a big bull market (and eventual bubble, as always) in new big data companies on the public market.

    Who do you think could go public next year?
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hortonworks IPO Uncovers Little Revenues And Great Potential For The Hadoop Comapny [View article]
    I'm not sure why this story isn't getting more discussion on SA.

    I appreciate the speculation on the offering price. Personally, I'm surprised they are going public right now. It's just so early in their life cycle I don't see them getting full value for their shares on the public market right now. They have incredible growth ahead of them over the next couple of years. Because of that I believe they will look to get a huge premium on their IPO.

    The other thing I can think of because their cash burn is so high they don't believe they can get money from Sand Hill Road at a PPS that they think they can get on the public markets.

    There are quite a few private players in this arena that will be watching eagerly. Besides Cloudera and MapR you will see many of the NoSQL DB companies looking to see if they can cash in on a public market appetite for these kinds of stocks or if they should hold tight and continue to grow their businesses privately in the meantime. Could be an interesting year in that industry with a lot of potential IPO's.

    As for Hortonworks, their strategy seems to be to just get as many customers as possible and worry about monetizing it later. I don't see them being a services and support company forever - it simply doesn't scale as well as licenses. Once they've established themselves as the "standard" in enterprise Hadoop they can begin to sell proprietary products around their offering. Or it's just a race to the bottom for all of the Hadoop companies as none of them really control the platform...until they consolidate of course.

    I've got some money set aside for this but won't be buying if it's a super premium.
    Nov 18, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Gilead's Hepatitis C Treatment Grosses $10B+ Per Year, Arrowhead's Hepatitis B Treatment Is Attractive. [View article]
    What I liked about the CEO's comments in the last report was that ARWR is moving from a research company to a product company. A lot of their leadership has sounded positive. Their cash position is good and they won't need additional funding anytime soon and I believe they are very optimistic about ARC-520. They do not sounds like they are interested in an acquisition unless it had a huge payoff - 10billion would be their price I suspect. But I agree, they would only get this if Phase 2B was extremely positive. It's a great bio-tech to have in your portfolio and I'm overweight on it.
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira riding another company's Ebola wave [View news story]
    There's a few treatments that have been in development for years. These things take a long time to develop and the only group that would bother to fund this research is the government. They haven't given a lot to fund it but may pick up the pace now.

    Some drugs have been tested on humans, such as Tekmira's, but they take a lot of time to come to market. The one used on the doctor's has not shown the same efficacy in Primate testing that Tekmira's has and Tekmira is way ahead. But their management is not very opportunistic and should have plowed ahead with this - especially since their drug was recently put on clinical hold.

    In desperate times you try desperate things. The belief is that Ebola isn't very viral yet and able to control. But it's looking less and less like that. Public hysteria may fuel for government research money into these companies.
    Aug 4, 2014. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences beats by $0.58, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Well, that's one hell of a beat. Even the revised expectations were crushed. Great job!
    Apr 22, 2014. 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Adaptive Genius Of Rigged Markets [View article]
    The bigger crook to retail traders is the outrageous broker fee's we pay for electronic trades that involve nobody. The broker is paying around 6 cents to make the trade per 100 shares generally and probably has better deals than that.

    There's a new electronic broker that is still in invite only mode called Robinhood which has 0% commissions. In the "How we make money" part of their Website there's this:

    "Robinhood will also receive remuneration for providing trade volume in certain markets."

    Which is sounds like taking advantage of maker-taker and likely a HFT firm behind the scenes.

    They also claim to make their money off of margin, API access and premium services as well.

    However, it's interesting that the retail investor may have a better opportunity here and benefit from maker-taker by eliminating that massive broker fee's we pay now.

    I'm on the invite list but haven't used them.
    Apr 22, 2014. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DeVry Is Significantly Overvalued And It's Time To Sell [View article]
    I agree it's overvalued however there is already a significant short interest and I don't expect the legislation to have an effect until next year.

    However, I wouldn't be surprised if this stock tanked after their ER this week - but it's more of a gamble to play this short right now.
    Apr 22, 2014. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Solvadi Is A Game Changer [View article]
    Great company stuck in a suddenly toxic sector. Everyone knows that profits will be great but hey it's bio so look out below. If you're long might see covered calls for awhile.
    Apr 14, 2014. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To 'Take By Storm' The Smartphone Market In 2014 Materializes [View article]
    What nobody mentions is that maybe, just maybe, Apple is being insanely smart with their cash position. Look at what has happened in the market and with the prospect of inevitable interest rate increases. Tech companies are EXPENSIVE to buy right now. Why not sit on the cash, help out investors a bit with a dividend and wait for panic to really come into the markets so they can buy up what they want cheap. Or should we trust what Zuck is doing buying companies at unbelievable out of touch multiples?

    These guys are doing everything right. It's not going to fly high but it's becoming a better and better place to stash the silly earnings we've all made off of biotech and technology companies like Tesla and Facebook the last year or so while we wait for interest rates to go up as unemployment goes down. I want to be in a company selling to consumers with new jobs and no need to borrow cash.
    Apr 14, 2014. 11:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment