Jeff Paul's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/975671/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401301/comments?source=feed#comment-18477841 18477841 Sun, 05 May 2013 22:56:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401301/comments?source=feed#comment-18477831 18477831 Sun, 05 May 2013 22:56:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401301/comments?source=feed#comment-18477791 18477791 Sun, 05 May 2013 22:55:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401301/comments?source=feed#comment-18425891 18425891 Fri, 03 May 2013 19:24:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401301/comments?source=feed#comment-18425841 18425841 Fri, 03 May 2013 19:22:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1355941/comments?source=feed#comment-17920121 17920121
I track the SPY and SDY against my model portfolios. I only have data since Aug 2011, but SDY has outperformed SPY and with much lower beta and max drawdown. Over the last 3 months, beta has been higher (calculated off of weekly returns).

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 01:57:44 -0400
I track the SPY and SDY against my model portfolios. I only have data since Aug 2011, but SDY has outperformed SPY and with much lower beta and max drawdown. Over the last 3 months, beta has been higher (calculated off of weekly returns).

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1354531/comments?source=feed#comment-17858981 17858981
I agree that both camps tend to be reluctant to change their minds. As I've written about in the past, I fall into the "don't find it useful" for decision-making group. My biggest complaint is the lack of a time component. Having a 20% YOC sounds great, but if it took 20 years to get there, your growth rate wasn't so hot. Also, maybe the dividend grew quickly, then slowed down. Looking at current yield and the DGR would provide better decision making info, in terms of historical metrics, and can be compared against alternative investment opportunities. ]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 22:29:12 -0400
I agree that both camps tend to be reluctant to change their minds. As I've written about in the past, I fall into the "don't find it useful" for decision-making group. My biggest complaint is the lack of a time component. Having a 20% YOC sounds great, but if it took 20 years to get there, your growth rate wasn't so hot. Also, maybe the dividend grew quickly, then slowed down. Looking at current yield and the DGR would provide better decision making info, in terms of historical metrics, and can be compared against alternative investment opportunities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17568601 17568601 Fri, 12 Apr 2013 21:07:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1337411/comments?source=feed#comment-17538621 17538621 Fri, 12 Apr 2013 10:04:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17381011 17381011
I don't know the specifics of APD's cash flow use. However, they did issue some bonds (see financing cash flows), about $400K, so collectively the dividend was covered if we assume that the financing was used to cover some of the capital project. Would need to investigate further to figure out where the money went. If it went toward growth projects (one-time) that will improve operating cash flows, then the dividend should not be in jeopardy. The firm also has over $1B in long-term investments, so there is a supply of cash, which also factors into the equation. ]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 21:08:34 -0400
I don't know the specifics of APD's cash flow use. However, they did issue some bonds (see financing cash flows), about $400K, so collectively the dividend was covered if we assume that the financing was used to cover some of the capital project. Would need to investigate further to figure out where the money went. If it went toward growth projects (one-time) that will improve operating cash flows, then the dividend should not be in jeopardy. The firm also has over $1B in long-term investments, so there is a supply of cash, which also factors into the equation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17335851 17335851 Sun, 07 Apr 2013 23:22:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17331521 17331521 Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:11:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17331421 17331421
Unfortunately, the best answer I have is "it depends". I see Chowder already responded, and his link has a lot of info on price/volume strategies. If, like some DG investors, you're focus is more on the dividend stream, then it may not bother you to buy near a 52-week top, if you are still getting the yield you want, there is room for div growth (higher projected earnings, low payout), and you have a long-term timeframe. Other factors include new developments at the company or expectations on events that could impact the industry/sector.

Personally, I like to see the stock off of its high (correction due to short-term issue), but I am pursuing total return, so I want to have that value cushion. Of course, this has made it tough the last 3 months, as the market has pretty much gone up, though I did find opportunities to buy stocks like Coach and Lockheed that slipped a bit during this timeframe. ]]> Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:08:34 -0400
Unfortunately, the best answer I have is "it depends". I see Chowder already responded, and his link has a lot of info on price/volume strategies. If, like some DG investors, you're focus is more on the dividend stream, then it may not bother you to buy near a 52-week top, if you are still getting the yield you want, there is room for div growth (higher projected earnings, low payout), and you have a long-term timeframe. Other factors include new developments at the company or expectations on events that could impact the industry/sector.

Personally, I like to see the stock off of its high (correction due to short-term issue), but I am pursuing total return, so I want to have that value cushion. Of course, this has made it tough the last 3 months, as the market has pretty much gone up, though I did find opportunities to buy stocks like Coach and Lockheed that slipped a bit during this timeframe. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17331291 17331291 Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:02:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17331261 17331261 Sun, 07 Apr 2013 19:02:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17313201 17313201 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 23:58:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17313151 17313151 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 23:52:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17307671 17307671 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 16:33:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17307661 17307661 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 16:31:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17307631 17307631 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 16:29:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17306851 17306851
I've debated whether to apply the stop-loss when rebalancing/creating a portfolio. It is more of a momentum check, but I figure if I use it to remove a stock from one model, than it seems hypocritical to not exclude the stock from another that is rebalancing. Yes, some would see it as an opportunity. But, in the short-term, selling it was the correct move. I would need another rule to determine when to allow it back in, other than div increase, which only occurs annually, hence the problem at this rebalance.

On the flip side, in the near term (next 6 months), Intel would need to do something that moves its stock up, while the overall market could see some correction. It hasn't been doing that the last few months, so it does have something to prove in that respect. My guess is that it will be available for the portfolios at the next rebalance, hopefully near the same price range ($20-$23), which still offers a great yield. ]]> Sat, 06 Apr 2013 15:46:31 -0400
I've debated whether to apply the stop-loss when rebalancing/creating a portfolio. It is more of a momentum check, but I figure if I use it to remove a stock from one model, than it seems hypocritical to not exclude the stock from another that is rebalancing. Yes, some would see it as an opportunity. But, in the short-term, selling it was the correct move. I would need another rule to determine when to allow it back in, other than div increase, which only occurs annually, hence the problem at this rebalance.

On the flip side, in the near term (next 6 months), Intel would need to do something that moves its stock up, while the overall market could see some correction. It hasn't been doing that the last few months, so it does have something to prove in that respect. My guess is that it will be available for the portfolios at the next rebalance, hopefully near the same price range ($20-$23), which still offers a great yield. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17301061 17301061 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 11:04:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17301011 17301011 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 11:02:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17300971 17300971 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 10:58:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17293711 17293711 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 00:16:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17293681 17293681 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 00:15:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17293621 17293621 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 00:10:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17287801 17287801 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 18:58:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1323901/comments?source=feed#comment-17282011 17282011 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 16:17:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309481/comments?source=feed#comment-17144871 17144871 Tue, 02 Apr 2013 23:54:58 -0400