Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View embryorambo's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • I Don't Think Russia Will Blow Up This Time Around [View article]
    I appreciate the boards thoughts concerning russia. But quite frankly the time to buy is now. If you were to wait for some of the smoke to clear then you along with everyone else that sees what you see-will not be able to buy at nearly the same price as you are able to now. With RSX 15.83 today and RSXJ around 20 you are paying sub 5 PE.on an INDEX mind you. Even if that were to contract short term... in the long term it will bounce back up and this to shall pass. The time to buy is right now, while everyone is running in every which direction trying to avoid the blood in the streets. Like buffet says, if you wait for spring the robins will have come out.
    Additional Disclosure-over the next 5yrs i expect this basket of stocks to absolutely smoke the performance of the S&P at 2040 US dollar adjusted
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    At what price is PWE worth a buy? If the answer is nothing why are the bears wasting their time talking about this stock? why not spend time on another message board or talking about other names like your boys at baytex?
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Repsol finalizing €4B bid for Talisman Energy [View news story]
    Captain sounds like Franklin and Icahn can settle the price in or no deal> Given Repsol wants to buy it on fire sale and the big holders won't give their shares away i can see this falling through actually
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy +35% as Repsol execs fly in [View news story]
    They will have to go north of 8 to get this deal done. This probably is initial offer knowing Icahn will push them higher
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Repsol finalizing €4B bid for Talisman Energy [View news story]
    Its around 5.25 but this is just going to be the opening shot in a long drawn out battle if they really want TLM> Ichan is not going to sell his shares for half what he paid a year ago i just don't see it happening
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Repsol revives deal talks with Talisman [View news story]
    Honestly Repsol would be idiots now if they were thinking about buying them when they were 10 why not now that they are sub 4? Be tough to buy on sale with icahn involved he is not going to give his shares away
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    Well look at the bright side only 2.59 more cents to go! That will take what week or so? lol
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    With oil at 63 and WCS selling at 17 dollar discount your already basically at 47 per barrel on PWE oil in US dollars. Once you run that # against all of their plans you realize how quickly they are going to bleed out if they do not cut that divi and cap ex and drip and go into end of days mode
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    Brian you bring up good points. PWE has and will continue to benefit from the FX rate and also they will benefit from lower royalties as prices decrease. That was in their latest quarterly presentation. If they are smart enough to wipe out divi, use that cash to chip away at their debt they can survive and the stock can be a multibagger. I retract my earlier statement about buying back shares. While it does seem to be a great idea to buy dollars for 20 cents, if your at risk of insolvency or breaking covenants then they should put that on the backburner until they have no insolvency risk. All these years they could've paid no divi and shored up their balance sheet and operational costs compared to their peers and instead they paid the divi and seem hell bent on continuing it despite not being able to afford to. Now they could be wiped off the map if things get worse-Only reason i can think of why market is saying you are worth 20 cents on the dollar at this point
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]

    WCS sells at 16 discount to WTI. I think investors are thinking PWE may have to cut divi cut cap ex and sell assets to cover their debt. They continue to dilute and get purged of their assets as fire sale prices. Many overleveraged players are in the same boat. I keep thinking the pricing of Pengrowth, Penn West and Talisman, Encana are just stupid cheap but as always the market is trying to tell us all something that we clearly are not seeing. I to have been in PWE since the 13's when it was trading just under book. I always felt they had great assets and eventually someone would finally figure out how to make some money. Clearly the story has been the same the whole ride down to sub 3 dollar US levels. PWE's bull case has been the same for 2yrs while shareholders have lost 70% of their money. The bull case is
    1) 5 million acres of land-was 7 million at one point until it continued to get sold at what i'm guessing are fire sale prices given Penn's position of weakness as a seller
    2) new management with strong track records
    3) Recycle ratios over 100% now and wells that don't make money have been done away with and focus has been on the core high margin plays where cost after all royalties etc is in the low 30's
    4) asset sales and paying down debt from 3.5 ebitda to 1-1.5 range.
    5) divi in tact, get paid while you wait-Although that divi was cut in half a year ago
    6) long term world oil consumption demand story is in tact, will only go up while oil becomes more scarce/costlier to extract over time

    The 6 points above are just a few, but bottom line is that the same 6 points were the same arguments that logically have made sense for 2yrs, while 1 dollar has become 18 cents over the same 2yrs. 2yrs ago i never would've thought that PWE would be one of the best shorts of the decade.

    All this being said is what matters today. I feel Penn West is either going to go bankrupt or it will go up 500% in the next 2yrs. Same could be said of PGH or TLM as they also are highly indebted companies that if the Saudis plan is to push oil to 30 or lower for a few years and really flush everyone out of the game you will see a lot of CH11 and probably a huge market correction. I feel russia has no choice but to continue to pump all they can to stay alive and most of opec is in same boat. Shale drillers already have paid for their leases and so for a while they to will continue to pump to try to recover what they can.

    From a frustrated shareholder
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    PWE, PGH, TLM. These names have gotten stupid cheap. Priced for good chance of CH 11. I am very curious what Icahn is doing behind the scenes with regards to TLM.
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Should Cut Its Dividend; If It Does I Will Buy More [View article]
    I agree, cut divi use to buy back shares on the drop to 2 dollars and pay down debt. Buying your own shares for 2 dollars to PWE at 20% of book is better then using it as cap ex for more wells, even if their recycle ratios are over 100% and their cost per barrel is in the 30's.
    Dec 5, 2014. 04:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Where It Is Darkest: When Company, Country, Currency And Commodity Risk Collide! [View article]
    First rate professor, first rate. Both True contrarian plays. In the same grain i have picked up Teck Resources, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegas, Sberbank, Israel Chemicals, SQM from Chile, Peabody Energy and Cloud Peak energy. Cheers
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call [View article]
    Short interest over 20% is bullish? tell that to WLT at 20 dollars a year ago. is 20% of the 35 billion market cap is short that is a LOT of cash specifically 7 billion in capital betting on the other side of the trade. I wouldn't call that dumb money. I may buy to sell to a greater fool, with a tight stop loss. Seems plenty of them on this message board i'll unload my shares to before the rug is pulled
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors And The Planning Fallacy [View article]
    What about holders that are waiting on the greater fools to step up and buy at a higher price because they buy based on hype and stories vs fundamentals and math. Or buying because many shorts will cave and cover when they see the price go up or get stop lossed out? Seems like a good investment case could be made that there are plenty of greater fools, non thinking index funds and short covering/emotional speculators that could help drive the price up. Just keep a nice stop loss in place in case gravity affects the stock which for last 3yrs it clearly hasn't. Ever considered that?
    Nov 12, 2014. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment