It's the dreaded "impossible trinity." Commodities, stocks, and bonds are all giving conflicting signals on the global economy, says BAML's David Woo, and their resolution could be a source of a "major realignment" of prices. Commodities (DBC) signal slow down, stocks (VTI) price in strong consumer spending, and bonds have completely lost it - government paper (TLT) says run for the hills, while credit spreads (LQD, HYG, JNK) say things are rosy. [View news story]
One lesson i've learned so far, and which underlies all my investments is, "don't fight the fed." Does Ben know what he is doing? I don't know, but i"m playing it his way. It's only semi-sure thing out there. Notice I said "investments" the Ben Graham way. With stops. Not trading. I'm not going down with the ship, if it heads that way.
The backup in Treasury yields - with the 10-year hitting 2% today for the first time in nearly a year - is a buying opportunity, according to Capital Economics' John Higgins. One datapoint of interest: In 7 major tightening cycles since the early 1970s, the trough in Treasury yields occurred an average 7 months before the first Fed Funds tightening. [View news story]
If Bernacke says the rates are staying low. They are staying low.
The 10-year Treasury yield's early move in 2013 to threaten 2% could be another fake-out, says Bespoke. The quick jump higher looks like any number of other moves over the past year, and the higher yields have always brought in buyers (the Fed?) to quickly drive them back down. [View news story]
Good point. So far in my investing & trading, I have found it unprofitable to fight the fed. They seem to be holding all the Aces. At least so far.
It's the dreaded "impossible trinity." Commodities, stocks, and bonds are all giving conflicting signals on the global economy, says BAML's David Woo, and their resolution could be a source of a "major realignment" of prices. Commodities (DBC) signal slow down, stocks (VTI) price in strong consumer spending, and bonds have completely lost it - government paper (TLT) says run for the hills, while credit spreads (LQD, HYG, JNK) say things are rosy. [View news story]
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The backup in Treasury yields - with the 10-year hitting 2% today for the first time in nearly a year - is a buying opportunity, according to Capital Economics' John Higgins. One datapoint of interest: In 7 major tightening cycles since the early 1970s, the trough in Treasury yields occurred an average 7 months before the first Fed Funds tightening. [View news story]
The 10-year Treasury yield's early move in 2013 to threaten 2% could be another fake-out, says Bespoke. The quick jump higher looks like any number of other moves over the past year, and the higher yields have always brought in buyers (the Fed?) to quickly drive them back down. [View news story]
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