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rhutton

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  • BlackBerry (BBRY) slips 3% premarket after a downgrade to Sell at Bernstein, which sees earnings peaking in FQ1 and "significant risk" of a miss in H2. OTR Global says U.K. Q10 sales fell off a cliff and have been - "not a typo" - just 30K-50K units since launch, reports Notable Calls. [View news story]
    If you look at BBRY technically, we are approaching the apex of a large consolidation wedge. I wonder if the shorts fear this and are frantically trying to break to the downside before earnings. If we make it to earnings on the 28th with no downside break, we could be perfectly poised for a strong bull break out on positive numbers. Blowout numbers along with technical traders jumping aboard this wedge breakout, could greatly increase the chances of a short squeeze. If the bears were able to break to the downside before positive earnings, it could greatly weaken any positive move post earnings. Because right now this wedge looks beautiful and it's apex appears to be almost perfectly aligned with June 28th.
    Jun 19 12:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France [View article]
    One thing to note is that the next 2 best selling phones, htc one and galaxy s4, are split into 2 color options resulting in the splitting of sales numbers. Since q10 is only listed in black, I wonder if it would still be number 1 if galaxy s4 and htc one had merged sales numbers of black and white models.

    Furthermore, lumina 520 sales numbers are divided by 5 for 5 different color variations.
    May 29 11:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Buy In May And Go Away'; Costco And Verizon Buttress BlackBerry [View instapost]
    Tufenk, does it not worry you at all that Verizon has to cut the price of Z10 in half in order to move units?

    After reading your instablog, I noticed that AT&T also offers the Z10 for 99.99 on contract. However, there is a catch with AT&T's offer. You must trade in your old smartphone, and AT&T offers the same deal for Galaxy S4 and HTC One.
    May 29 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Julian Robertson's Tiger Management unloaded the 42K Apple (AAPL) shares the firm still had going into Q1. Tiger, which has owned Apple for years, had pared its stake from 101K in Q4. On the other hand, Tiger initiated positions in Dunkin' Brands (DNKN - 546K shares), Monsanto (MON - 192K), McGraw Hill (MHP - 408K), and H&R Block (HRB - 849K). AAPL -1.1%. (13F) (Q4 hedge fund sales[View news story]
    Hedge fund legend, http://bit.ly/16fLqdj

    Turned $8 million in 1980 start up capital into over $20 billion by the end of the 90s. Also know for his mentoring of many of today's rising hedge fund stars nicked named "Tiger Cubs"
    May 15 11:33 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Catalysts Right Under Our Noses? [View article]
    @STDvooh

    This is absolutely not true. You must not understand how eBay works. Though I must say I'm not surprised considering your comments comparing Apple iPhone sales to Blackberry device sales. AAPL has a $400 billion dollar market cap, BBRY has a $7 billion dollar market cap.

    I have been a top rated seller on eBay for a few years now, and if you actually looked at the accounts selling the z10's, you would see that they are legitimate, top performing eBay sellers. eBay monitors new accounts closely (especially ones that buy/sale high ticket items). There is no way eBay would allow this to replicate on a scale large enough to artificially raise prices. The reality is that there are a lot of wealthy people out there that will pay a lot of money to have what nobody else does. I actually purchased my Z10 on eBay before it was released in the US for $800. I did this because I have a long position and wanted to research the new product. The sales are real.

    @Chris Parker

    As far as the Q10 eBay pricing, I just scoped it out, and it looks to be on par with the Z10. The average right now looks to be about in the $900 range. Remember that the Z10 was only going over 1k for a very brief period when it had not yet been released in any country. The only units available were the ones that were given out by BlackBerry at the launch. The Q10 will be released in a major market before it hits eBay, so the pricing will not hit such high extremes.

    Now if someone actually had a Q10 in their possession and listed in on eBay for immediate shipment, I would be shocked if it didn't fetch a few grand.
    Apr 17 02:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Show Hasn't Even Started Yet [View article]
    Ashraf, another great article! I'm curious are you playing this with options or buying the common stock?
    Mar 15 01:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attention BlackBerry Shorts: See Order Flow To Vendors [View article]
    @gstanden

    I read your chat session, and then went to att.com, I noticed that the page still says that the orders will ship on the 20th. I think that your rep may have overlooked the fact that this is a preorder, to be shipped on the 20th (not shipped immediately). I then opened a chat session with an att.com rep myself, and asked a bunch of questions. The rep said if I order today, then my order will ship on the 20th. He told me there is a nationwide guarantee on all preorders to ship the 20th....

    With that said, I was completely shocked to here the below response to one of my questions:

    "ME: what is your opinion of sales, being a feature sales rep, have you had a lot of customer inquiries?
    ATT REP: The sales for the Z10 have been fantastic they are selling like hotcakes."

    LOL "selling like hot cakes"

    I followed up with this:
    "ME: right now are you seeing more robust sales for the new z10, over galaxy sIII and iphone 5
    ATT REP: I've personally seen way more for the Z10 since the announcement for preorders was released."

    With that said, I purchased an unlocked white z10 a few weeks ago from Canada on eBay. I switched from the iPhone 5, I took it out this weekend for the first time. I am 24 years old, so most of my friends are in the same age range as me. Showing about 6 different people on Sunday, the response was very positive. One of my friends had heard about the phone and wanted to get one himself (I would have never pegged this guy as a tech savy person either). Another friend said they "Loved blackberry" and were glad to see them come out with a new phone, this person was a female (iPhone user). I like the z10, but I have to be completely honest, I'm not fully adjusted to it yet and miss my iPhone 5 at times. The biggest pain in the ass is the chokehold that Apple has on texting with its imessage system. I have several group texts with iPhone using friends, switching to blackberry really screwed up these group texts, however, I have seemed to get it to work properly over time (at least with my most used group text, others still pending). This was the main reason I had the phone for a couple weeks but have not actually started using it until this last Sunday.

    I am very long blackberry, I have a healthy 6-figure position a mix of long shares and leap calls. I have been long for over a year, but I added most of my positions once the stock was trading at the 8-10 range.

    I try to be realistic, and although I believe BBRY is undervalued, some of the longs can be over exuberant. With that said, hearing these comments from the ATT rep is very positive for me, I had my doubts about the US market (though I think BBRY can still thrive long term even if US market was a failure). I am looking forward to the 28th.
    Mar 13 04:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Open Versatility Of New BlackBerry With QNX OS Could Ripen RIM For Squeezing [View article]
    @Tufenk

    Enjoyed the article.

    While catching up on my RIMM and AAPL news tonight I found this great analysis by Jim Boark that was aired on BNN today. Boark talks about the imminent RIMM short squeeze and his theory of a large US hedge fund long AAPL short RIMM pair trade, as it relates to the squeeze.

    Part 1: http://bit.ly/TpytYR

    Part 2: http://bit.ly/Wvz4on

    I think you will find it interesting. Unfortunately, it is not 100% complete, this is the best I could find. If anyone has a full link please share.
    Jan 24 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Versus The Solar Industry [View article]
    Can you please explain how both of these are possible, I am a bit confused by your statements #5 and #6 in relation to each other:

    "While not as high as the historical levels experienced prior to the industry over-supply issues, the company is able to make money and is on target to earn at least $4.75 per share for fiscal 2012 and more again in 2013 and beyond, resulting in a dramatic undervaluation when compared to today's trading value."

    "In 2012, they will, in all likelihood, have another net loss of approximately $70M, the result of which will include $475M in restructuring costs."
    Jan 10 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marine Harvest's Earnings Restatement Could Be Buying Opportunity; Use Caution [View article]
    I read the Q2 today. The report stresses that the main challenge is the oversupply of salmon straining spot prices in the near future. To combat this, Marine Harvest has set up a sales and marketing segment to actively pursue business and increase demand. They also mentioned how the value added business becomes more profitable as spot prices decline, and they intend to grow this business as well.

    As far as the dividend, I agree with you Power Hedge, where is all this news on the frozen dividend coming from?

    It is clearly stated that a semi annual dividend is still a very real possibility. As you stated cash flows were very strong this quarter. There is also a lot more cash right now year over year.

    From what I gathered the dividend issue stems from the NIBD/Equity ratio. Marine Harvest's policy is to pay out at least 75% of cash flow as long as the NIBD/Equity ratio stays below 50%. Q2 NIBD/Equity was 55.9%. Once Marine Harvest gets this back below 50% we should see a nice dividend.

    After reading the report I added a few thousand shares to my position.
    Jul 21 03:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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