Paul J

Anadarko: They've Got It Rigged

A very warm winter is here and natural gas prices are falling drmatically. And guess what APC sells primarily natural gas and it doesn't hedge like CHK.

In simpler terms, APC sells natural gas and the value of natural gas is dropping for the forseeable future.

Pfizer Trading Well Below Its Intrinsic Value

Your models ignore an extraordinarily large white elephant. Pfizer's research group is one of the worst performing of all of the big pharmaceuticals. No financial model or projection can change that fact.

Pfizer has not developed a blockbuster inhouse since Viagra in 1996. Their fat revenue stream is primarily the result of buying Warner-Lambert to get Lipitor. They didn't discover Lipitor, the Parke-Davis unit of Warner-Lambert did.

One could have bought Ford for the dividend some time ago, but ouch that wasting away of the principal would have hurt.

Pfizer Moat Check Is Positive

Pfizer hasn't had a blockbuster developed in house since 1996, when the Sandwich site discovered Viagra and that was a lucky side benefit, not the original target. Since then they have bought Warner-Lambert to get Lipitor and Pharmacia for Celebrex. These buys have made them larger and more dependent on a research group that is not producing.

It is very possible that very large research groups inhibit innovation through their scale, bureaucracy and general unattractiveness to the most brilliant researchers.

Pfizer has simply gotten too big.