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  • Soros buys mortgage REITs [View news story]
    Thank you for the translation. Had he written it like you did, it would be clear to all readers. A family adding to its holdings in REITs is still diversified only 1/4% into REITs. Appreciation for your deciphering.
    Nov 17, 2015. 12:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros buys mortgage REITs [View news story]
    Who among us believe that in the long term the population will decrease, the need for housing will decrease, the need for mortgages will decrease, and therefore the need for REIT's will decrease?The short sighted look at the news drama in price fluctuations. Those who see the BIG picture look at the long term growth in population, economy, and everything that the ever expanding population will need in the future. Look at the essential nature of REIT's, where they fit into the long term big picture of the future of a growing population. Look at the wants of the have nots, people and nations, and see how the ever growing desire to have a better standard of living will drive the long term economy, business, housing, REIT's, and attainment of the goals of people and families seeking a better quality of life and experience. Now, consider what would happen if REIT's lost money in the long term, went out of business, had no investors, therefore could not support the mortgage industry that supports the housing industry. If REIT's were to lose money in the long term, never return to an equilibrium of making a reasonable profit for the company, the management, and the shareholders, what would happen to the homes that the growing population want? What would happen to the industries of lumber, appliances, carpeting, paint, furniture, and everything that goes into the homes because REIT's invest in mortgages to free banks to make more mortgage loans?

    Consider what will happen to REIT's as equilibrium returns. Consider the dramatic, out of equilibrium market crashes of 40 and 60%, and how the markets recovered and continued to grow to new highs, new prosperity, new profitability. Consider the S&P was at 19 in 1950, suffered the 40 and 60% crashes, yet present value, in spite of "losses" and crashes and all the short term price fluctuations, stands at over 100 times that 1950 value. Then realize that REIT's, an essential part of the economy, will do the same in the long term. That makes the current beat down, out of equilibrium prices a place for folks like Soros to invest for growth and income in the long term, the big picture, the future, years ahead. Perhaps his sight is just longer and wiser than others who look at the short term and cannot see the future as it must be. To buy REIT's, hold, and reinvest the distributions, is to embrace the inevitable future that must happen due to population growth, economic growth, and desires of people and families to have more of the good life. The same folks who would buy stocks when the prices fall 40 and 60% are buying REIT's, BDC's, CEF's, shipping, and the other aspects of the market that have fallen below long term equilibrium. The question is, would you buy stocks in a market crash? And the answer depends of whether one focused attention on the short term or the long term, the view of the moment, or the view of the distant future. Investors have faith in the future, and buy the future when the present looks the darkest.
    Nov 17, 2015. 10:46 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros buys mortgage REITs [View news story]
    "The combined value of about $26M stands against north of $10B in AUM for the family office."

    The language of one who perceives that others read his mind and know what he is thinking. This is nonsensical.
    Nov 17, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Maritime Partners: Get Your Money Back In 5 Years [View article]
    Thanks for the article, computations, and research!

    I agree with reinvesting the distributions. I started buying NMM 3-1-13, and reinvesting the distributions. Looking back, I see a reinvestment as high as 20.09/share. In spite of appearing to have done everything wrong from a market timing view point, the one thing I have not done is sell. Now each quarter my number of shares increase, my average cost per share decreases, my yield increases, and potential grows. Not easy to keep emotions out of the gut wrenching price drop, but faith in the long term ability of the world population, demand, and economy to grow will ultimately make the long term income from invest, hold, and reinvest work favorably. Steady or falling prices are a longterm income investor's best friend. I have three more years to MRD, but all of my investments pay a yield over three times the minimum required distribution, with the portfolio already yielding over five times the requirement. Steady as she goes, keeping to the plan, not the emotional reaction to the news.

    I also like the idea of buying the car with cash. Paid for the last one with a check. The next one I'll go for the 2% rebate on my charge card. Means no interest payments going out, just distributions coming in, keeping the budget balanced. Means selling no shares, but withdrawing part of the distributions when needed. Means that any distributions not withdrawn will increase shares and income to cover future inflation. Its a long term plan instead of a knee jerk reaction to short term fluctuations in price. If in doubt, I simply remember that in 1950 the S&P was at 19, and today closed at 2053, a gain of 107 times. Long term strategy may not be dramatic, but it accomplishes the goal. Keep the goal in mind, not the news.
    Nov 16, 2015. 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP Maximum Drawdowns: What Statistics Tell Us [View article]
    Thank you for a good article, good research, real numbers, and percentages. The informative nature is a great step above the profoundly opinionated and judgmental articles which often appear on this site. Yes, Maria, there are still negative folks insisting that the sky is falling, the market is ready to crash if not already teetering and losing its balance. Certainly they will receive the perception of their judgments, reap as they sow, and find a way to lose money to prove that they are right.

    On the other side of the coin, the power of positive thinking, looking at facts such as the S&P move from 19 in 1950 to 2090 at close today, a 109 fold increase, despite 40 and 60% corrections in between. I appreciate your calculation of a 62% profit for anyone willing to buy today and hold until the last high is again reached. I am in favor of MLPL, currently yielding 19.5%, making the waiting period profitable for the willing income investor, not to mention the potential doubling of number of shares held in about 3.7 years, and the possible 62% index price appreciation. Retirement income investing is certainly about the long term buy, hold, and reinvest state of mind.

    Although I greatly appreciate the lower prices at the gas pump, I also recognize the potential for prices to return to past levels, taking MLP prices with them. I suspect that an energy index will follow the market, potentially adding wind and solar energy transmission companies if carbon fuel usage greatly decreases. But the whole world is not likely to instantaneously convert all facilities using the products provided by the Alerian MLP infrastructure index companies. Nor is the growing world wide population likely to begin decreasing. Nor are the have nots likely to decide that they prefer the lack.

    Staying long and steady as she goes. Five years easily becomes the short term picture for the true investor. The certainty of a long term recovery and continuation of growth assures the diligent investor of the goal, but may exclude the short term, short sighted, price focused, impatient speculator as well as those who "know" investments will be lost.

    Without a firm belief in the future, a conviction that all aspects of the economy, population, and investments will continue to grow and prosper in the long term, there is no investor. Thank you for your clarity and detail. I am aligned with your way of thinking, with your observation that the future will brighten for those who listen and believe and invest. Just the simple 62% profit makes this a worthy investment. As you said, all highs are eventually reinstated as a foundation upon which new highs are built.
    Oct 28, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Positive For Shareholders Of New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    Does stock price increase on and around distribution pay date? I noted that Fidelity purchased my auto reinvest shares on Friday, showed them in my account on Saturday, even though the published "pay date" was Monday.

    Like the risk adverse, I am much less focused on the current price of shares. Actually, I am happy with lower prices, which means that my reinvested distributions will purchase more high income yielding shares at the lower price. I am content to reinvest in shares of high income yield in RIC's rather that spending the distribution on low yield income taxed corporation shares. Price appreciation is not the goal. Retirement income is the goal, the very reason for investing in RIC's -- REITS, BDC's, and CEF's. The advantage of the 1940 Registered Investment Companies Law is favorable to the income investor less fearful of price swings, more focused on income yield. Eliminating the corporate income tax rate from the return on investment, the double taxation paid on the low yield corporate income of the "safe" companies, is advantageous to the income investor.

    In the long term, equilibrium will return. Fear of the Fed's 1/4% interest rate hike will dissolve into nothingness in the course of the long term. Prices will once again climb, reducing yield on reinvested shares. The lower present prices which offer higher yields for the present and all future are a wind fall of opportunity for the willing investor, fearful for the short sighted. I foresee no future in which I sell the shares, the golden goose laying the golden eggs. I do foresee a future of yield, income, the desired goal, free of reduction in the capital that is yielding the 90+% of taxable income of RIC's. Giving 40% of taxable income to the IRS, then giving a few percent to the stockholder, may meet the goal of price appreciation, but not the goal of income appreciation.
    Oct 27, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China cuts rates; futures add to gains [View news story]
    "Slashing" is drama and emotional manipulation, as opposed to straight forward, unbiased, factual reporting of actual current events. The BIG SLASH was about 5.4%. Poor writers invoke their own emotions as if their perceptions are fact. Same as TV weather persons deciding sunny, rain, hot, or cold is good or bad. Opinionated persons write opinions, not facts. Factual readers simply throw the trash out, or make additional efforts to read between the emotional BS used to hide the facts. Thanks for commenting. Thought I was the only one noticing the judgmental, opinionated, emotional smoke and mirrors supposedly representing the truth.
    Oct 23, 2015. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Top Choices For Preferred Shares Will Bring Nearly 9% Yields To Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    Fantastic! WOW! Thank you. Great work.

    I could only add, for your followers who will contribute to their Roth on Jan 2, a late December update would aim the contribution at the then best opportunity.

    Appreciate your in depth research.
    Sep 28, 2015. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Mortgage Trust Poker Game [View article]
    Quarterly pay, high yield stocks will, most of the time, drop in price on ex-date and the following few days to a week, not because the stock is less valuable, but because the pre-ex-date run up in price is caused by dividend harvesters, not by investors, fundamentals, or technicals. The law of supply and demand at work, and nothing else. Demand for the distribution, not the stock, causes the price to increase for about a month before Ex-date. Then the demand reverses, leaving too much supply, as these distribution buyers sell on or after Ex-date. The typical move is about a 2-1/2 times the amount of distribution as price drops during the great sell off. Then price muddles around for a month, and starts a slow climb. The climb increases about a month before the next Ex-date, and crashes again on and after Ex-date.

    Look at the three or five year charts for High yield Quarterly pay stocks, and see it play out over and over. Look at the big picture, the forest, the long term, rather than get fixated on a short term fluctuation resulting in a judgment that causes a perception of what is not really happening.

    Income investments are long term accumulation of substantial shares paying distributions. Think retirement, and the length of time one will spend in retirement. That is the focal length of time one should apply to the stock. One cannot retire on what happens to a stock in days, weeks, or even months, but on what happens in decades and scores of years.

    Shorter term fluctuations in the economy, what is in and out of favor, variances in earnings, and whether it comes from interest collected on mortgages, or sales of real estate, or both, are all irrelevant when viewed as imperceptible movements in ten, twenty, and thirty year charts. Income investing is not for those interested in the daily drama of news headlines, bobble heads, and intermittent changes. Income investing is not for those who buy and sell according to emotion, panic, and euphoria. Income investing is for those who keep their focus on the furthest horizon, the long term goal of being financially independent in a long retirement. Income investing is a focus on income, not price appreciation and price depreciation day to day. Look down the road ten, twenty, thirty years, and patiently accumulate the necessary shares to pay the income that will produce financial sufficiency. Then be happy that a drop in price will not panic one out of all the income for the duration of retirement.
    Sep 25, 2015. 03:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Mortgage Trust Poker Game [View article]
    The short sighted lack understanding of American business. Those who can't stand the heat in the kitchen should withdraw. Those who can't see the forest for the trees, the long term for the headlines that blind them, will do better somewhere else.

    At today's close of $6.67, the $.96 annual distribution yields 14.4%. That will increase by reinvesting the distributions. At lower prices, the reinvested distribution will purchase more shares than it would have. Knee jerk reaction, or far horizon vision. Is the sky falling, the economy no longer in need of what this business provides, or is it a cloud passing by? For better or worse, or just a fair weather investor. We will relook this in three to five years and see how it played out. Did the buy, hold and reinvest strategy win the long term, like the tortoise, or did the fall out at a little unpleasant news win the investment game? Did NYMT reduce the distribution because the word of the Fed should be honest, because this is an acceptable way to deal with the risk of a rate increase? RIC's have one year to distribute income, and can do so later rather than sooner if the Fed changes the game. Companies can hold onto income as needed, and use it until they are required to distribute it. Did the world end, or did NYMT manage our assets for the long term instead of the perceived short term? To those who leave, thank you. To those who stay, thank you, but let us remember that NYMT should open $.24 below today's close because of the distribution. The value was not lost, because we still own the stock, plus on Ex-date we own the distribution. I look forward to my $1500 distribution being reinvested on 10-26, more shares to pay more distributions on the next quarter's Ex-date.
    Sep 23, 2015. 06:36 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Dividends Decline But The 25% Yield Is Still Compelling [View article]
    Given the declining prices, and declining distributions, do you expect a recovery within three to five years?

    I am investing and reinvesting under the assumption that when the Fed increases interest rates, so will mortgage rates increase. Fall out of equilibrium, then work back into equilibrium. Businesses must make a profit. Investors must make a profit. I am investing under the assumption that mortgages, REIT's, CEF's, BDC's, and MLP's are all essential parts of the economy, therefore interest rate spreads, profits, and investments will eventually all come back into alignment after this aberration. Which means now is a good time to invest and reinvest before equilibrium is regained.

    Appreciate your thoughts on the three to five year out look.
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Dividends Decline But The 25% Yield Is Still Compelling [View article]
    Perhaps you should wait until Ex-date on or about Oct 12. Price/value should open at $.7103 below previous close as the "large" distribution is extracted from the prior day value.

    The present increase in price is merely the typical run up by the distribution buyers in anticipation of the "large" distribution. As the distribution is subtracted from the value of a share, and magnified by all the dividend buyers selling on or within a couple of days after Ex-date, the price will fall, potentially as much as two and a half times the amount of the distribution, before regaining equilibrium close to the discounted price below NAV. The run up before Ex-date is the law of supply and demand at work, presently meaning that demand is greater than those who want to sell their shares. On and immediately after Ex-date, supply exceeds demand, resulting in a decreasing price, especially in light of two decreasing "small month" distributions that follow.

    We should be aware that the headline, the article title showing 25% Yield, is wholly unrelated to most of us, since we did not happen to buy on that date. Had one purchased at the 52 week low of $12.75, yield would be about 27.53%. Had one invested at the 52 week high of $22.32, yield would be about 15.73%. These yields for income should offer a channel within which one could expect future distributions, but no guarantees. As always, reinvesting the distribution will lower actual cost per share, and increase yield on original investment. At the current rate, annual distribution should double about every 4-1/2 years.
    Long MORL in IRA and ROTH.
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust Took A Bath Recently, But It Got The Dirt Off [View article]
    Worthy goal. I'm with you! Keep up the good work.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2X Leveraged Closed End Fund ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Thanks for all your work and research. With all the nay sayers, I feel the bottom line is to ask if CEF's are an essential or non-essential aspect of the American economy and business. I feel that CEF's are absolutely essential. Therefore, whatever is necessary to keeps CEF's in business, making a reasonable profit, providing the essential financial service, will in fact happen. Without CEF's, business growth and growth of the economy would be detrimentally affected. Given that CEF's are essential, I agree with your model of long term growth, in spite of variations from equilibrium. The fact that they are RIC's, pay no income tax, must distribute pass through taxable income to share holders, the distributions will be larger that income tax paying corporations, and the NAV will be unlikely to change dramatically because they cannot legally retain capital to grow NAV. Price and distribution will return to a mean norm and continue to fluctuate above and below that equilibrium level.

    Similarly, BDC's, REIT's, and MLP's will all evolve toward their normal levels, at times being more in favor with investors, at times being less in favor. The aging of America assures an increasing demand for income producing investments. The long term will force all of these back into equilibrium. They are all essential aspects of the economy.
    Sep 10, 2015. 06:21 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: Still Not Convinced? [View article]
    If NYMT paid a hundred times those expenses, and still distributed the current amount of taxable income at the current price and current yield, what does it matter??? Why be concerned with the means used by management so long as management continues to meet the distribution goal of $.27/1.08. This is an investment in a steady stream of income distributions. Mine is not to second guess management, or micro-manage what NYMT does to maintain the steady distribution. I believe they established the goal of $.27 per quarter, govern their operations accordingly because they are owners receiving distributions just like us, because they have a good job and enjoy the benefits of keeping that job, and it is not in their own best interest to destroy their shares of stock and their livelihood. Consider from their point of view how very important it is to maintain the distributions, and rest your mind from worrying about things we cannot change, and really do not want to change. Let them do the job the best way they know how, and enjoy the quarterly income. Or, if one does not agree with the management, sell the shares and invest in a management with which one does agree. Ultimately, any investor is only ever investing in the management and employees who are sole determiners of the value and worth of the investment.
    Sep 8, 2015. 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment