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inefficientmkts

inefficientmkts
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  • An All-In Bet On David Einhorn: Greenlight Capital Re [View article]
    Buffett sees value in Berkshire Hathaway at a 1.2x book. BRK has an astonishing core business (Sees Candy, Hanes, Geico, McLane, etc, etc, etc, etc.) that has performed amazingly over time with stable and fairly predictable earnings growth trajectory, impeccable managment talent plus Buffett and Co investing, not to mention Charlie Munger. And BRK's investment portolio consists of some stellar companies..Coke, Costco, etc.
    Giving GLRE, the whatshisname CEO of GLRE and the other 26 employees the same premium as BRK seems difficult to justify on the hope of Einhorn investing working out. If Einhorn doesn't pull thru, then what?
    Is GLRE a great company at a fair price? I think GLRE is a fair company at a fair price. Maybe things work out for Einhorn. Maybe not. I don't think anyone can say with certainty. Without Einhorn, would GLRE event continue to exist?
    Jul 11 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An All-In Bet On David Einhorn: Greenlight Capital Re [View article]
    To me, GLRE's only competitive advantage is Einhorn's investments. GLRE's re-insurance business itself should not be assumed to be improving. GLRE has been declaring for a several years now that their underwriting losses will get better but the underwriting losses have persisted year after year. Even worse, other hedge funds are entering the Reinsurance business and will probably create downward pricing pressure. It is therefore prudent to recognize that past performance has given no reason to believe that the reinsurance business is good or will get better and the market looks crowded. Graham would advise to invest in consistent and reliable earnings with a sound underlying business, competitive advantage, consistent growth or earnings with some kind of solid rationale for why the company is undervalued.
    GLRE's core business has been .....meh. The company has no competitive advantage in the reinsurance business. GLRE doesn't have huge economies of scale, proven underwriting performance, and worse, now increased competition. In short, we can't count on the REinsurance portion of GLRE to change.

    Valuing GLRE stock price esentially comes down to a WAG due to the many "ifs." So, if we believe in Einhorn, and book value looks good doesn't GLRE look like a fairly reasonable price currently? I agree that Einhorn is awesome. I agree that price to book is a fairly reliable way to value reinsurance stock. So, I ask this. Is GLRE currently undervalued? Or is the value in GLRE only come IF reinsurance losses stay static and Einhorn continues to deliver outsized returns?
    Jul 11 03:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This One Thing Derail Tesla? [View article]
    The mandated noise can be a whirring or fan like sound, doesn't need to be beeping per se. Can also be disguised to sound motor like. The Nissan Leaf has a fan sound that can be heard outside the car, but isn't noticeable really from inside the car. I believe this is a huge non-issue
    Mar 28 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tandy Leather Factory - An Undiscovered Retailer With Strong Fundamentals [View article]
    What happens when TLF's loan from JPMorgan Chase matures in May 2018? Is there a balloon payment or is that just when it is payed off?
    Nov 5 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Dividends Unexpectedly Up, Has BP Turned The Corner? [View article]
    This was one of the best, most balanced, and clearly articulated articles I've ever read on this site. Good research, excellent portrait of the general picture for the company. I appreciate that you explained the numbers, the business fundamentals, and the risks without being particularly biased. Fantastic work. Thank you!
    Nov 1 04:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Follow-Up: How My '11 Stock Picks for 2011' Are Performing [View article]
    I really like how honest you were. Finally someone who tells it like it is. What is your investment style and/or how do you make your selections?
    Jul 22 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
6 Comments
10 Likes