Enormous Insider Buy Signals Loudly For Audience [View article]
Any chance the buys were exercises of options? Feels like that would make a difference, at least in the gross-investment-dollars v. salary part of the analysis. The writer does only say "25,000 shares, worth $350,000", eg, not PAID $350,000.
Appreciate the above comments, also. I was sure feeling the tug.
A devastating fire in Bangladesh at an apparel factory has added a sense of urgency to a push in the retail world to disclose where and how products are made. The move isn't purely based on altruism, surveys show consumers will pay more for clothes with signs on fair-labor practices. Nordstrom (JWN +0.2%) is considering starting to promote clothes made in humane working conditions - while Nike (NKE) and Wal-Mart (WMT -0.7%) plan to take on tired accusations of sweat-shop tactics with more disclosures. [View news story]
From SA above: "A devastating fire in Bangladesh at an apparel factory has added a sense of urgency to a push ...." From the linked-to NYTimes article: "The garment factory collapse that killed more than 800 workers in Bangladesh last month has added urgency to the movement ...." And also for the record, "devastating" and "tired" were in SA alone.
For my part I wish the historical link to the Triangle Shirtwaist apparel-factory fire http://bit.ly/174qfKJ (NYC 1911 146 dead) would also be made (same locking of fire exits, in my recollection), in this dialog.
Now, a day later, another apparel factory fire in Dhaka has been reported in the US, eight dead, few or no workers present but the managing director and a friend/police official amongst the eight, an electrical short circuit perhaps the cause per this coverage in The Hindu: http://bit.ly/12gQuJL The Hindu story is dated May 9 and was filed around 1 am US EDT per the Google search which led me to it (“8 hours ago” at 9 am EDT May 9; a BBC report via NPR this morning alerted me to the event, first). Three pm May 8 (date of SA piece above) would be 2 am May 9 in Dhaka, by my quick reckoning and consultation http://bit.ly/174qfKR. Thus, this last fire likely had already been reported when the SA piece was posted yesterday though the most recent fire was not part of the SA coverage. The Times piece was posted on the paper's web site 21 hours ago per Google, about noon EDT May 8, 11 pm Dhaka time May 8. It's impossible to tell if the Times piece was posted before or after the latest fire, from what info I have. Could the latest fire have been the one actually addressed ("devastating") in the SA piece? I don't know that, either, of course.
Cheers and strength and peace, all. May all the dead rest in peace.
IBM, And The Private Cloud, Will Get Here [View article]
jr80, I think you miss the primary point of the article which was to rebut an article headlined, top of the list dramatically, "disaster in the making", yesterday. AND, while I wasn't convinced of the disaster scenario y'day I was glad to see a familiar thoughtful writer take it on directly today. AND DB conceded the strength of AAlsin's critique and DB's strongest positive was "buying opportunity now or upcoming" in effect. (Wasn't one of the Dell going-private pitches "be more like IBM"? I really don't think IBM's completely off the rail. (Nor Dell, on the rail, but can't go too far in that direction.) I'd say your $170 would be well within DB's "difficult ... few quarters" scenario. But I don't see170, even, as a disaster; and having read the two articles plus you now, I feel I understand the recent plunge and am well prepared to sit tight, long, and watch for the opportunities. I'd even dare say Berkshire will be inclined to do the same -- they were the primary object of AA's sell rec. y'day. Of course I'm still riding with AAPL that's been way up and is now well under water, mostly wondering "Should I buy more?"
Part 2. OK. One step I took y'day was to look at AA's article list and see the more moderately titled "Is IBM in Trouble?" from Dec. '12. Just before posting the above I said, I'd better check that http://seekingalpha.co... out. And (SA) that meant checking the chart, too. With IBM in the low 190s (where it's back to today after the recent plunge), AA wrote a broader crit of IBM's recent years of stock-price success -- heavy on stock repurchases and acquisitions, poor on revenue growth. Looking at the 10-year chart and the 2004 start-point for the recent strategy per AA, his argument is pretty strong. Alas, though, it doesn't seem to add up to "disaster" now, AFTER the correction back to Dec. levels. Now: Maybe the recent earnings report was SO bad as to warrant "disaster" and I should go back and reread y'day's. Or maybe I'll wait for 170 and thank you and AA (and DB). Sell? Not yet. (Because I guess I'd say a 190 buy is in the mid-term range, too.)
Part 3: Of course, if AA'd reaffirmed and strengthened when the stock was at 210 ....
Was Google Reader free? Would you have paid for it?
Your castigation of newspapers (I don't think I'm too harsh http://seekingalpha.co...) for giving away their content would seem to conflict with your castigation of Google for trimming a freebie (I assume it was free) that no longer meets its goals.
Another question: Did G. make any effort to ease the dislocation of caused by closing the service?
The car, Glass, the broadband initiative -- I think they have more than "ad-based business" written on them. (And I can't fully follow, or get on board with, adrian816's doubts on these fronts.) But the tradeoff with AAPL stevereid raises (or your just taking some profits on GOOG) has attraction. The AAPL plunge certainly gives new insight into the concept of a tech powerhouse's stock performance.
As to Google credibility, the evolution from youthful idealism would also seem a pretty slender reed on which to hang a current critique. Like Facebook yet younger than Google, privacy issues (and censorship issues and cyberattacks in other parts of the info realm they and we all are in, if you will) seem just an inevitable part of the social/economic sea change which this tech revolution entails. There are no easy answers on these issues. And that's why "grown-" or "growing-up" companies making tougher calls in grayer zones are needed; and worthy of our respect. I don't know. Your protest -- and marshaling of signs of protest -- just doesn't reach much mass, for me.
But lighten up on position? Certainly worth considering ... but there's that long-term upside ... and REALLY a 35%-Apple-esque-drop prospect for GOOG? Tough call. Appreciate your sharing. I wonder, alternative to stevereid, if you'd grown to overweight in tech and aren't looking at, say, lower overall beta (if I use that term right, for risk/reward).
I'm long GOOG, AAPL, FB (and, you know, the newspapers). Cheers.
Blackberry And Forbes: Battleground Stocks And Headline Risks [View article]
For the record, SA is saying the Balsillie news was the primary news associated with y'day's drop. Waterloo has come in to debunk that factor here but MCollins never even mentioned it. Here's the SA link http://seekingalpha.co... There are links there to the original Balsillie news and the NBF quote.
More generally: While this SA piece makes Forbes look bad, this SA piece and many of the comments are by longs. Same warning applies here about "which side is being presented". For example, I think the objection to Forbes was a little strenuous when "analyst says" was right in the headline. "Bearish" seems pretty easily intuited from the content of what the analyst is quoted saying. And consistent opinion from an analyst -- just because it runs counter to one's position -- isn't necessarily nefarious.
But, yes, great reversal. No position for me. On we go.
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
I felt, as a long, like pushing "like" was unfair. But I had to and tell myself at least and now you (all) that it did strike me as an honest, well-written, sincere comment. After it's all over I could see reminiscing about it. But for now, yes, also: Another bear at least momentarily worn down -- yes!! (And I can just imagine you reading this article; or Paolo Santos' (cited above by me); ... and once in a while letting the whisper "now?" surface again in your head. Like BIDU for me now. "Sell NOW? Take the (re-widened) loss, head for the hills? 120's AWFUL far away." Cheers.)
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
Good questions to start with. Relationship with/to Netflix alone is more than I can take on, except to (remind you or) say that A. is ramping up to compete with N. in content provision but is also the cloud-supplier TO N., as I understand it; when AWS (A. cloud) went down around Christmas it took N. with it (or when N. spiked that time slot A. went down); again, my impressions. There's good resource at SA to explore the questions; just be careful of the strong POSITIONS (with investment positions close behind and presumably all shown; or around and maybe not shown) being taken by many writers. It's a big day-to-day week-to-week month-to-m. q-to-q. y-to-y. dialog with big (aggregate, at least) $ on the line. You sound, from above, ready to join in (with more than questions). Paolo Santos the ONE name to check next, if you haven't made his (SA) acquaintance and you're game. I'm (still) long AMZN, and like it when commenters, too, state positions. One point: It may still be smaller than WMT (another commenter brings that up) still but "early stage" sounds a little off to me, too; it went through and came out the other side, intact more or less, the LAST (really big) tech bubble '99-2000; and now has been surging (stock up 300% maybe) for 3-4 years; and is high-high priced (ask Paolo if you have doubts on that last, after the current article). Cheers.
Can't quite "like" the indirect (filtered thru some good sarcasm; hafta luv it) response, but do apprec. it. Isn't "cash from operations" a buzzwrd I've heard as ACTUALLY Bezos' self-measure? Haven't seen any word on that yet, for the '12 numbers. ... I guess it's the "growth is going away" (no, I didn't read much of yours above; and know that's what you addressed; I will say to Wacko the selectivity of the bears resembles that of the bulls, at least) that's the real hole in your argument for the "Kool Aid crowd" (of which maybe I'm part). When I saw JB say "global retail is x trillion and we're 3% of that"+- -- maybe the first time I'd seen him talk, CRose, fairly recently, within year, almost cert. this http://bit.ly/14s3TPx Nov. 35 min. -- all I can say to you is "You think US sales tax is an insurmountable perma-barrier?" He may be blowing smoke but YOUR arguments haven't touched it yet (I don't think). Your "not worth much" is a little cavalier, too, though. ... But enough ... talking around (and to) RW ... as we are, here. Cheers.
Suncor (SU) is crying foul over transportation fees proposed by Kinder Morgan (KMP, KMI) for the expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline, contending the latter is leveraging its position as the owner of the only Pacific outlet for Alberta’s landlocked oil to ratchet up tolls “to earn excessive and unreasonable rates of return.” Of the 13 firms contracted for capacity, only SU and Total (TOT) have formally complained. [View news story]
Have to add a couple links to the [physical, BC] site: ngm.nationalgeographic... http://n.pr/WQQlJ0 Pretty pictures. On top of the carbon load of this product. "King Hussein". ... OK. I get it. I know you're tough no-nonsense crowd. ... Do apprec. the political read(s), -001. Short KMI?
"will, somewhere down the road, become profitable" from writer above.
I almost turned away satisfied at one level. No mention of operating profit in the piece, typical cherrypick for bad news (for his short).
But the extra oomph of not just ignoring the 55% improvement, y/y, in op. prof. but of repeating the "down the road" canard ....
OK. I respect the writer's position and endeavor. I with extreme anxiety and caution daily/hourly disagree (by holding onto my little-ish long). (As I write, we're only up 5+% now, off the 8-10% of after-pre-hours trading/quoting. Sell NOW? I ask myself.) But I also regularly feel, in the process, the need to NOTE the rhetorical turns and, well, cherrypicked reporting of our writer here.
As to sales: bigger companies grow slower than their smaller, earlier selves did. External events (resulting from the growth, often, as in sales tax imposition now that the target's big) often add headwind. The Costco comparison I can't address. To be in the LEAGUE with Walmart to me tells volumes. Can (well-compensated; thanks carnegie) Bezos and legion play in this league, with headwinds? Hour-to-hour. "RIM changes name, shares plunge": a headline I read on the way here. Challenging world out there. How's NOK this ... midday? On we go. Cheers.
Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
Not to split hairs, but one of the 31 DID have a sell rating on, per the writer. And the market today is listening to the one (and the writer), eh? You're thinking it's not a sell today, it sounds like. I guess that's where I am, long and sitting.
Amazon's Low-Profit Margin Model Is Key To Future Growth [View article]
Crew? (your -laker handle leads me to ask).
"Dream Job: VINAYAK MAHESWARAN.wmv" is where the link goes. Same general area as YouTube ref. above. Drum the writer out? For me he's earned his chance at another but I do wish SA would give writer's name with the headlines so one could have it as part of the "click" decision.
Enormous Insider Buy Signals Loudly For Audience [View article]
Appreciate the above comments, also. I was sure feeling the tug.
A devastating fire in Bangladesh at an apparel factory has added a sense of urgency to a push in the retail world to disclose where and how products are made. The move isn't purely based on altruism, surveys show consumers will pay more for clothes with signs on fair-labor practices. Nordstrom (JWN +0.2%) is considering starting to promote clothes made in humane working conditions - while Nike (NKE) and Wal-Mart (WMT -0.7%) plan to take on tired accusations of sweat-shop tactics with more disclosures. [View news story]
For my part I wish the historical link to the Triangle Shirtwaist apparel-factory fire http://bit.ly/174qfKJ (NYC 1911 146 dead) would also be made (same locking of fire exits, in my recollection), in this dialog.
Now, a day later, another apparel factory fire in Dhaka has been reported in the US, eight dead, few or no workers present but the managing director and a friend/police official amongst the eight, an electrical short circuit perhaps the cause per this coverage in The Hindu: http://bit.ly/12gQuJL The Hindu story is dated May 9 and was filed around 1 am US EDT per the Google search which led me to it (“8 hours ago” at 9 am EDT May 9; a BBC report via NPR this morning alerted me to the event, first). Three pm May 8 (date of SA piece above) would be 2 am May 9 in Dhaka, by my quick reckoning and consultation http://bit.ly/174qfKR. Thus, this last fire likely had already been reported when the SA piece was posted yesterday though the most recent fire was not part of the SA coverage. The Times piece was posted on the paper's web site 21 hours ago per Google, about noon EDT May 8, 11 pm Dhaka time May 8. It's impossible to tell if the Times piece was posted before or after the latest fire, from what info I have. Could the latest fire have been the one actually addressed ("devastating") in the SA piece? I don't know that, either, of course.
Cheers and strength and peace, all. May all the dead rest in peace.
IBM, And The Private Cloud, Will Get Here [View article]
Part 2. OK. One step I took y'day was to look at AA's article list and see the more moderately titled "Is IBM in Trouble?" from Dec. '12. Just before posting the above I said, I'd better check that http://seekingalpha.co... out. And (SA) that meant checking the chart, too. With IBM in the low 190s (where it's back to today after the recent plunge), AA wrote a broader crit of IBM's recent years of stock-price success -- heavy on stock repurchases and acquisitions, poor on revenue growth. Looking at the 10-year chart and the 2004 start-point for the recent strategy per AA, his argument is pretty strong. Alas, though, it doesn't seem to add up to "disaster" now, AFTER the correction back to Dec. levels. Now: Maybe the recent earnings report was SO bad as to warrant "disaster" and I should go back and reread y'day's. Or maybe I'll wait for 170 and thank you and AA (and DB). Sell? Not yet. (Because I guess I'd say a 190 buy is in the mid-term range, too.)
Part 3: Of course, if AA'd reaffirmed and strengthened when the stock was at 210 ....
A Google Credibility Gap? [View article]
Your castigation of newspapers (I don't think I'm too harsh http://seekingalpha.co...) for giving away their content would seem to conflict with your castigation of Google for trimming a freebie (I assume it was free) that no longer meets its goals.
Another question: Did G. make any effort to ease the dislocation of caused by closing the service?
The car, Glass, the broadband initiative -- I think they have more than "ad-based business" written on them. (And I can't fully follow, or get on board with, adrian816's doubts on these fronts.) But the tradeoff with AAPL stevereid raises (or your just taking some profits on GOOG) has attraction. The AAPL plunge certainly gives new insight into the concept of a tech powerhouse's stock performance.
As to Google credibility, the evolution from youthful idealism would also seem a pretty slender reed on which to hang a current critique. Like Facebook yet younger than Google, privacy issues (and censorship issues and cyberattacks in other parts of the info realm they and we all are in, if you will) seem just an inevitable part of the social/economic sea change which this tech revolution entails. There are no easy answers on these issues. And that's why "grown-" or "growing-up" companies making tougher calls in grayer zones are needed; and worthy of our respect. I don't know. Your protest -- and marshaling of signs of protest -- just doesn't reach much mass, for me.
But lighten up on position? Certainly worth considering ... but there's that long-term upside ... and REALLY a 35%-Apple-esque-drop prospect for GOOG? Tough call. Appreciate your sharing. I wonder, alternative to stevereid, if you'd grown to overweight in tech and aren't looking at, say, lower overall beta (if I use that term right, for risk/reward).
I'm long GOOG, AAPL, FB (and, you know, the newspapers). Cheers.
Blackberry And Forbes: Battleground Stocks And Headline Risks [View article]
More generally: While this SA piece makes Forbes look bad, this SA piece and many of the comments are by longs. Same warning applies here about "which side is being presented". For example, I think the objection to Forbes was a little strenuous when "analyst says" was right in the headline. "Bearish" seems pretty easily intuited from the content of what the analyst is quoted saying. And consistent opinion from an analyst -- just because it runs counter to one's position -- isn't necessarily nefarious.
But, yes, great reversal. No position for me. On we go.
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
Separately: Paulo Santos says sales ALREADY fading http://seekingalpha.co.... For Bill Maurer, too.
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
Amazon's Growth Is Shutting Down [View article]
Suncor (SU) is crying foul over transportation fees proposed by Kinder Morgan (KMP, KMI) for the expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline, contending the latter is leveraging its position as the owner of the only Pacific outlet for Alberta’s landlocked oil to ratchet up tolls “to earn excessive and unreasonable rates of return.” Of the 13 firms contracted for capacity, only SU and Total (TOT) have formally complained. [View news story]
ngm.nationalgeographic...
http://n.pr/WQQlJ0
Pretty pictures.
On top of the carbon load of this product.
"King Hussein". ... OK. I get it. I know you're tough no-nonsense crowd. ... Do apprec. the political read(s), -001. Short KMI?
Amazon's Growth Is Shutting Down [View article]
I almost turned away satisfied at one level. No mention of operating profit in the piece, typical cherrypick for bad news (for his short).
But the extra oomph of not just ignoring the 55% improvement, y/y, in op. prof. but of repeating the "down the road" canard ....
OK. I respect the writer's position and endeavor. I with extreme anxiety and caution daily/hourly disagree (by holding onto my little-ish long). (As I write, we're only up 5+% now, off the 8-10% of after-pre-hours trading/quoting. Sell NOW? I ask myself.) But I also regularly feel, in the process, the need to NOTE the rhetorical turns and, well, cherrypicked reporting of our writer here.
As to sales: bigger companies grow slower than their smaller, earlier selves did. External events (resulting from the growth, often, as in sales tax imposition now that the target's big) often add headwind. The Costco comparison I can't address. To be in the LEAGUE with Walmart to me tells volumes. Can (well-compensated; thanks carnegie) Bezos and legion play in this league, with headwinds? Hour-to-hour. "RIM changes name, shares plunge": a headline I read on the way here. Challenging world out there. How's NOK this ... midday? On we go.
Cheers.
Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
Further Confirmation Of Sales Tax Impact On Amazon.com And Other Matters [View article]
Amazon's Low-Profit Margin Model Is Key To Future Growth [View article]
"Dream Job: VINAYAK MAHESWARAN.wmv" is where the link goes. Same general area as YouTube ref. above. Drum the writer out? For me he's earned his chance at another but I do wish SA would give writer's name with the headlines so one could have it as part of the "click" decision.