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Swliv

Swliv
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  • Twitter: Pulling The Wool Over Investors' Eyes [View article]
    Should we be comparing to FB or not, in your opinion? How best, if so? Why not, if not?
    Aug 7 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Pulling The Wool Over Investors' Eyes [View article]
    I've appreciated some your focused commentary on TWTR, @JHimelson. I too watch the stock and co. relative to FB closely. I chose to buy in to TWTR a little after its low in June, at 35; as I'd waited and bought some FB after the IPO avg cost high 20s. I felt TWTR had survived the clear onslaught effort by FB to derail it after the IPO (just a feeling, no real substance to that idea). I appreciated your cautionary article http://bit.ly/1v7UpK4 in late March -- read in April -- and have just appreciated your recent FB review http://bit.ly/1ltGZ1q. I guess my feeling is that you've clearly chosen your (single) horse while I've chosen the two; and I'd like you to think about addressing the two head-to-head. I haven't read any of yours closely and may be missing something. I know that your sharply negative tone on TWTR, albeit with the "long FB" warning up above, tends to turn me OFF rather than engage me; given the above. I appreciate your work, glad you/we've done well on FB, HOPE you're wrong on TWTR and will be probably reading you in future should you choose to continue present tack OR should you take the advice. :-)
    PS I did see your FB-TW comps above re: World Cup. And you may have something on the WCup thing; though co. statements are pretty clear; do you really think they're dissembling? But your comps here seem apple-orange. They're two different services; different around the world (to a degree as you've noted); is MY feeling. I've missed whether you're on Twitter or not, if you've said. I'm more on FB than TWTR but respect the latter so far, as I say, as different.
    Aug 5 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Global Expansion Model Is Going To Fail [View article]
    http://bit.ly/10Bt0eD Robin Li in Wikipedia, Baidu founder and CEO.
    Jul 24 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Global Expansion Model Is Going To Fail [View article]
    I rather hated to buy BIDU after China made Google operating there impossible (a better way to put it than you did I think; more pointed at least); but I liked the search product and the market and took a chance. It was down and has come back fairly strong and steadily. I worry about its staying power, of course, and the risks of cross-border ownership but am cautiously pleased.

    Re: international. I don't think you prove -- or give ANYthing other than market data to support -- your diagnosis of failure. Japan has to be a tough market. And two tough competitors. Look at MSFT and YHOO domestic US v. GOOG. It's not easy. I'd say BIDU could be further hampered by having been nurtured in ITS home market by powerful government exclusion of offshore competition; so not maybe as nimble and competitive when IT goes offshore. All that said, I'd say it's important for the strong company to look offshore. Do you know it's losing money in Japan, for instance? What has the co. said about Japan initiative? Anyway, my reading of China's overall overseas efforts (Latin America, Africa ..., Russia, to name a few) says to me, "A big Chinese company HAS TO be working to go global, also." I hope BIDU is relatively sensible in terms of investment-to-reward analysis. But it's got to be a long-term view (look at some of Google's investments, from its strong GLOBAL ex-China (and ex-Russia? not sure; watching YNDX; sorry I didn't move on it a month or two ago) place; and I don't count Hong Kong completely out, for Google). I also, more immediately importantly, hope BIDU's got most of its attention well-fixed on its domestic market -- the government protection doesn't prevent some strong competition there; I try to watch QIHU and SOHU a little in that regard; just as Twitter and LNKD challenge FB and Pinterest challenges TWTR et al. in US and globally; and the one News Corp bought shriveled (but NWS is back small, buying 'social news agency' Storyful Dec. 2013); and all have to cope with transition to mobile, BIDU (and NWS) incl.

    Idealistically -- where I started -- one can hope that experience offshore for BIDU and others will lead to a maturing let's call it attitude toward open search in the official Chinese mindset. That's a REAL long view, now, I'm coming to think. But real long views are necessary more than ever, it feels; maybe not for one's portfolio, not all the way at least; but for life and non-market investments. Reading Bright Shining Lie by Neil Sheehan finally; in that regard.

    I'm long all public co's named exc. LNKD and other two Chinese co's; and long others in tech/media sectors incl. NYT spec ref Sheehan. Cautiously bullish though only TWTR added recently, last couple of months. Bubble? In BIDU?? Keep trying to test it. Thanks for article.
    Jul 22 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markit IPO: Buy The Moat And Be Better Than Buffett [View article]
    Thanks for the update. Pondering the recommendation. Point of grammar: http://bit.ly/SNFzq4. Think it's "poring" you wanted.
    Jun 16 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Company - A Hoary Relic, Or Just Overvalued? [View article]
    I like the @ Roger Knights comment in concept but can't confirm that $250M for WPost justifies NYT market valuation.

    I've ridden the Times down from 23 and now up from 5 over the last five+ years, fortunately investing enough more at the lower levels to make the whole inclination/judgment/i... successful. Now I'm down from 17.30 to current 15.60 in the last year. I appreciate the current skeptical analysis from @Andres Ruida. My last major comment was defending the co. in Dec. '12 here http://seekingalpha.co....

    I haven't read the current article closely but I am inclined to hang in with the co. I think the dichotomy in the headline leaves out the reason I like to co. AND the reason for the WPost valuation. Smart gathering and analysis of global information on the daily and shorter and weekly and hopefully also longer time cycles -- with a strong commitment to independent publicly argued opinion and dialogue -- is an intangible but valuable product, that "fourth estate" of our political and societal system. The transition to doing the job effectively in the digital realm is obviously rivaling the printing press, telegraph, radio and television in magnitude of fundamental change. My sense is that the Times has shown considerable business intelligence in managing this transition, the "too early" Globe initiative notwithstanding. Whether ads will flock back to the degree that had (along with the "info biz" angle) the stock at 50 along in the dot.com bubble I can't say. But to have a 1% yield -- in light of what's transpired in last five years, including the CSlim 14% p.a. loan to the co. http://seekingalpha.co... -- to me is a sign of solid strength. The option on the HQ seems valuable to me, too, and the dropping of the Boston initiative, all considered, seems ultimately a sign of smarts and strength rather than weakness. While I wouldn't be a buyer at this level, I am comfortable with the hold I have on what is now a substantial position for me. I think it'll be well higher (30-50%) in two-three years barring overall economic setback, and solid enough to weather an economic setback if there is one. And the family holding means dividends won't be squeezed inordinately, I wouldn't think.

    I have spread my assessment and commitment to the transitioning "relic" sector across several companies -- including MNI, SSP, PSO, LEE, RUK, NWS; plus into the strictly digital "add-ons" like GOOG/-L, FB, AMZN, even EBAY (worrying right now) and others. I was sorry to lose my stake in the WPost to JBezos (NOT AMZN) though I'm holding with the surviving Graham co. GHC also. Big question in the overall sector(s) range now: Will I have a chance again at TWTR and LNKD closer to recent lows?
    Jun 10 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Head In The Cloud: TIBCO Software Illustrates Why You Need To Verify Fundamentals [View article]
    WAC, do you mean?
    Jun 3 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The New York Times? [View article]
    And they auto-renewed me (in the fine print I'm sure it was) and now I'm into the second month full ticket, and I DO love it. We'll see. All the answers/correct thoughts? Of course not. Meanwhile stock ... still doing pretty well. Another visit from you?
    Apr 22 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Now An Attractive 11% Yielder [View article]
    What two telecoms you talking about? Fairpoint a possible (dk about the yield, know it went bust; and Frontier holds on with a fragile, maybe, high yield; and NOK (not exactly t'com I know but sort of) had a high yield for a while before cutting div.; then rocketed in price after a bit). EPS is near $6 v $4 div., 3%+ increase in div. 2/25 PLAUSIBLY sign of management confidence as Jensen says; if business is holding up in a lean time as he says they say, that's another argument of comfort. Also to Jensen's credit, his Jan. article was on the 28th of Jan, AFTER the big drop from near-$40- high early in the month. Long a tiny bit of Frontier, a good amount of SDRL and more as of Mar. 20 on much this argument, had Fairpoint (bankrupt). If F'point's your argument, it seems a weak comparison to me. They died on land-line business death and overleveraged spinoff from Baby Bell; as Frontier suffers, my understanding. VZ and T I'm also long; and worry some about THOSE (lower but high for market, 4-5% I think) yields.
    Apr 3 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Now An Attractive 11% Yielder [View article]
    No article on TNH by BJensen here: http://bit.ly/1jG8EOn. Please, a source for your comment?
    Apr 3 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell First Solar - Tellurium Supply, Narrow R&D Outlook Tarnish Company Glow [View article]
    See nothing about marc antony. Title: Tellurium's Hat, dellerium, cadmium, stupidium, Investment Analyst. Audio only (no earbuds for now). Thanks for lead. Serious?
    Apr 3 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will North Atlantic Drilling IPO Bring To SeaDrill? [View article]
    In October.
    Jan 29 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The New York Times? [View article]
    Thought I should report beck: I did the $.99 for 12 weeks or whatever [subscription] today .... [And, OH, the first Peter Baker as a subscriber (makes "legacy" sound like platinum, and I'm not joking); nip over to the first few 'graphs of Gail Collins, back for ... more PB on BHO, imPECcable, a sweet treat to myself; I'll let you know if I ... go for the "big bullet" in 90 days.] And I've just checked, the stock's you know 14+- v. 8+ ... in Jan. (and I haven't sold any yet). It's ... a great ... round [I can't say "game"], eh? Happy solstice!
    Dec 20 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W. P. Carey Closes $40 Million Acquisition of Denver-area Class A Building [View article]
    Photo link not working.
    Dec 4 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone's Brixmor sets expected IPO range [View news story]
    Blackstone paid $9 billion in '11 for what's now called Brixmore to Australia-based Centro Properties Group, per this from CoStar http://bit.ly/1gn69B1 for what it's worth. Long BX.
    Oct 17 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
132 Comments
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