Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Swliv's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is It Finally Sony Time? [View article]
    'Tales' and I share an earlier move. I went mid-'13 at 20 and more than twice the dollars at 16 in 1/14. Tales doesn't seem inclined to sell at this point nor do I. It was a 'name' and a Yen play, mostly; the feeling that they HAD to do something with the name; and that MAYBE they were doing something via the yen et c. I sat long and frustratingly in a Japan fund a good while ago. A pang when I read the Walkman division ITSELF is one going. Well, I appreciate the thoughts and info, Dana. I knew the co'd been lagging badly. I worry a little about the firing.
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple [View article]
    When writing an article of this sort wouldn't one AT LEAST say one was considering selling one's AAPL stock?
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Yahoo To Buy The New York Times [View article]
    OK. You've had your fun. Not much enthusiasm anywhere here for the Gray Lady. Understood. But I have to point out the author's last article on the subject, Time To Short The New York Times? Dec. 26, 2012; price then $7.50 or so, now $12, been to $15+. If you, DB, hadn't said casually '$2.5 billion'd get it' I might've let all this go; but there's just no way. MAYBE if someone took the elevator with a bit more than RM'doch summoned for the Bancrofts there'd be a CHANCE but you're a ways away from that (factor of 2). For one of your commenters, the building's under a sale-leaseback at least partly but I think with long-term equity value still with NYT. DK value; an upside for the stock I'd say. For those who said, Would anyone oppose a Yahoo takeover? I am long there too and would agree completely. As to NYT, my opinion is up-to-date at the "Short" article; though yes I surely would have done better short-term to sell then (April) close to $16. As to recent lay-off bump; I trust the co. with (considerable) caution; hope they're not cutting 'muscle'; hope in fact they're not cutting 'under duress'. Should maybe know but ..., well, am open to learn. You do know it's a two-tier stock ownership; there's no such thing as a hostile takeover? As I understand it. Murdoch, Google, Alibaba I bet too, all have same. Right? You did catch my attention, too, with AOL's relative valuation; and that IS I'd say a bona fide market anomaly; and market anomalies can point to value to be realized. I still don't think you've found a ...n even intelligent (sorry) idea but I salute the effort (and will eat my words if ...).
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Pulling The Wool Over Investors' Eyes [View article]
    Should we be comparing to FB or not, in your opinion? How best, if so? Why not, if not?
    Aug 7, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Pulling The Wool Over Investors' Eyes [View article]
    I've appreciated some your focused commentary on TWTR, @JHimelson. I too watch the stock and co. relative to FB closely. I chose to buy in to TWTR a little after its low in June, at 35; as I'd waited and bought some FB after the IPO avg cost high 20s. I felt TWTR had survived the clear onslaught effort by FB to derail it after the IPO (just a feeling, no real substance to that idea). I appreciated your cautionary article in late March -- read in April -- and have just appreciated your recent FB review I guess my feeling is that you've clearly chosen your (single) horse while I've chosen the two; and I'd like you to think about addressing the two head-to-head. I haven't read any of yours closely and may be missing something. I know that your sharply negative tone on TWTR, albeit with the "long FB" warning up above, tends to turn me OFF rather than engage me; given the above. I appreciate your work, glad you/we've done well on FB, HOPE you're wrong on TWTR and will be probably reading you in future should you choose to continue present tack OR should you take the advice. :-)
    PS I did see your FB-TW comps above re: World Cup. And you may have something on the WCup thing; though co. statements are pretty clear; do you really think they're dissembling? But your comps here seem apple-orange. They're two different services; different around the world (to a degree as you've noted); is MY feeling. I've missed whether you're on Twitter or not, if you've said. I'm more on FB than TWTR but respect the latter so far, as I say, as different.
    Aug 5, 2014. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Global Expansion Model Is Going To Fail [View article] Robin Li in Wikipedia, Baidu founder and CEO.
    Jul 24, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Global Expansion Model Is Going To Fail [View article]
    I rather hated to buy BIDU after China made Google operating there impossible (a better way to put it than you did I think; more pointed at least); but I liked the search product and the market and took a chance. It was down and has come back fairly strong and steadily. I worry about its staying power, of course, and the risks of cross-border ownership but am cautiously pleased.

    Re: international. I don't think you prove -- or give ANYthing other than market data to support -- your diagnosis of failure. Japan has to be a tough market. And two tough competitors. Look at MSFT and YHOO domestic US v. GOOG. It's not easy. I'd say BIDU could be further hampered by having been nurtured in ITS home market by powerful government exclusion of offshore competition; so not maybe as nimble and competitive when IT goes offshore. All that said, I'd say it's important for the strong company to look offshore. Do you know it's losing money in Japan, for instance? What has the co. said about Japan initiative? Anyway, my reading of China's overall overseas efforts (Latin America, Africa ..., Russia, to name a few) says to me, "A big Chinese company HAS TO be working to go global, also." I hope BIDU is relatively sensible in terms of investment-to-reward analysis. But it's got to be a long-term view (look at some of Google's investments, from its strong GLOBAL ex-China (and ex-Russia? not sure; watching YNDX; sorry I didn't move on it a month or two ago) place; and I don't count Hong Kong completely out, for Google). I also, more immediately importantly, hope BIDU's got most of its attention well-fixed on its domestic market -- the government protection doesn't prevent some strong competition there; I try to watch QIHU and SOHU a little in that regard; just as Twitter and LNKD challenge FB and Pinterest challenges TWTR et al. in US and globally; and the one News Corp bought shriveled (but NWS is back small, buying 'social news agency' Storyful Dec. 2013); and all have to cope with transition to mobile, BIDU (and NWS) incl.

    Idealistically -- where I started -- one can hope that experience offshore for BIDU and others will lead to a maturing let's call it attitude toward open search in the official Chinese mindset. That's a REAL long view, now, I'm coming to think. But real long views are necessary more than ever, it feels; maybe not for one's portfolio, not all the way at least; but for life and non-market investments. Reading Bright Shining Lie by Neil Sheehan finally; in that regard.

    I'm long all public co's named exc. LNKD and other two Chinese co's; and long others in tech/media sectors incl. NYT spec ref Sheehan. Cautiously bullish though only TWTR added recently, last couple of months. Bubble? In BIDU?? Keep trying to test it. Thanks for article.
    Jul 22, 2014. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markit IPO: Buy The Moat And Be Better Than Buffett [View article]
    Thanks for the update. Pondering the recommendation. Point of grammar: Think it's "poring" you wanted.
    Jun 16, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Company - A Hoary Relic, Or Just Overvalued? [View article]
    I like the @ Roger Knights comment in concept but can't confirm that $250M for WPost justifies NYT market valuation.

    I've ridden the Times down from 23 and now up from 5 over the last five+ years, fortunately investing enough more at the lower levels to make the whole inclination/judgment/i... successful. Now I'm down from 17.30 to current 15.60 in the last year. I appreciate the current skeptical analysis from @Andres Ruida. My last major comment was defending the co. in Dec. '12 here

    I haven't read the current article closely but I am inclined to hang in with the co. I think the dichotomy in the headline leaves out the reason I like to co. AND the reason for the WPost valuation. Smart gathering and analysis of global information on the daily and shorter and weekly and hopefully also longer time cycles -- with a strong commitment to independent publicly argued opinion and dialogue -- is an intangible but valuable product, that "fourth estate" of our political and societal system. The transition to doing the job effectively in the digital realm is obviously rivaling the printing press, telegraph, radio and television in magnitude of fundamental change. My sense is that the Times has shown considerable business intelligence in managing this transition, the "too early" Globe initiative notwithstanding. Whether ads will flock back to the degree that had (along with the "info biz" angle) the stock at 50 along in the bubble I can't say. But to have a 1% yield -- in light of what's transpired in last five years, including the CSlim 14% p.a. loan to the co. -- to me is a sign of solid strength. The option on the HQ seems valuable to me, too, and the dropping of the Boston initiative, all considered, seems ultimately a sign of smarts and strength rather than weakness. While I wouldn't be a buyer at this level, I am comfortable with the hold I have on what is now a substantial position for me. I think it'll be well higher (30-50%) in two-three years barring overall economic setback, and solid enough to weather an economic setback if there is one. And the family holding means dividends won't be squeezed inordinately, I wouldn't think.

    I have spread my assessment and commitment to the transitioning "relic" sector across several companies -- including MNI, SSP, PSO, LEE, RUK, NWS; plus into the strictly digital "add-ons" like GOOG/-L, FB, AMZN, even EBAY (worrying right now) and others. I was sorry to lose my stake in the WPost to JBezos (NOT AMZN) though I'm holding with the surviving Graham co. GHC also. Big question in the overall sector(s) range now: Will I have a chance again at TWTR and LNKD closer to recent lows?
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Head In The Cloud: TIBCO Software Illustrates Why You Need To Verify Fundamentals [View article]
    WAC, do you mean?
    Jun 3, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The New York Times? [View article]
    And they auto-renewed me (in the fine print I'm sure it was) and now I'm into the second month full ticket, and I DO love it. We'll see. All the answers/correct thoughts? Of course not. Meanwhile stock ... still doing pretty well. Another visit from you?
    Apr 22, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Now An Attractive 11% Yielder [View article]
    What two telecoms you talking about? Fairpoint a possible (dk about the yield, know it went bust; and Frontier holds on with a fragile, maybe, high yield; and NOK (not exactly t'com I know but sort of) had a high yield for a while before cutting div.; then rocketed in price after a bit). EPS is near $6 v $4 div., 3%+ increase in div. 2/25 PLAUSIBLY sign of management confidence as Jensen says; if business is holding up in a lean time as he says they say, that's another argument of comfort. Also to Jensen's credit, his Jan. article was on the 28th of Jan, AFTER the big drop from near-$40- high early in the month. Long a tiny bit of Frontier, a good amount of SDRL and more as of Mar. 20 on much this argument, had Fairpoint (bankrupt). If F'point's your argument, it seems a weak comparison to me. They died on land-line business death and overleveraged spinoff from Baby Bell; as Frontier suffers, my understanding. VZ and T I'm also long; and worry some about THOSE (lower but high for market, 4-5% I think) yields.
    Apr 3, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Now An Attractive 11% Yielder [View article]
    No article on TNH by BJensen here: Please, a source for your comment?
    Apr 3, 2014. 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell First Solar - Tellurium Supply, Narrow R&D Outlook Tarnish Company Glow [View article]
    See nothing about marc antony. Title: Tellurium's Hat, dellerium, cadmium, stupidium, Investment Analyst. Audio only (no earbuds for now). Thanks for lead. Serious?
    Apr 3, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will North Atlantic Drilling IPO Bring To SeaDrill? [View article]
    In October.
    Jan 29, 2014. 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment