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Nikhil Kumar

Nikhil Kumar
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  • MBIA (MBI) notches a victory in its legal battle with Bank of America (BAC), an appeals court ruling BofA could be required to repurchase loans even if they aren't in default. It's a "huge win" for MBIA, writes Christian Herzeca, very similar to Assured Guaranty's victory over Flagstar bank. [View news story]
    No, MBIA's case rests on the claim that they were essentially defrauded by Countrywide. BAC should settle, no need to drag this out forever.
    Apr 3, 2013. 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Pacific Railway: Off The Tracks After Ackman [View article]
    While your CP short thesis is quite compelling, there are several inaccuracies in this article.

    1. Ackman is not underwater on his HLF position. See Seeking Alpha Market Current http://seekingalpha.co...

    It would seem he is up by 250 million dollars.

    2. Your comparison of Ackman and Icahn in terms of how they gained their wealth does not provide context of Ackman's fund's returns or his management fees.

    3. The SEC reply does not state in particular what the investigation is about, therefore assuming that the investigation is entirely about Pershing is blatantly misleading. Note that an SEC inquiry into Herbalife currently exists as well. Correct me if I am wrong, but the SEC reply does not state that Pershing is the target of an investigation, rather that the information cannot be released due to potential interference with Law Enforcement activities. Based off the information given, the SEC reply is not revealing of whether there is an investigation of Ackman's trading practices. Such claims are entirely speculative in nature.

    Other than these 3 points, your CP short thesis overall compelling.
    Apr 3, 2013. 01:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zero Growth ... Really? [View article]
    I'm surprised at all the negativity directed towards shorts and High Frequency Trading. High Frequency trading and trading in general creates more possibility for stocks to be incorrectly priced. For a value investor, such irrationality creates buying opportunities.

    Shorts in general are a good thing for the market. Many fundamental based shorters try to deflate bubbles before they can turn into a market contingency. Jim Chanos with Enron, Bill Ackman with MBIA, etc.....
    Mar 31, 2013. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
    The comment section here reminds me too much of a Tea Party/ Occupy Wallstreet/ Survivalist type of thing. Unsecured depositors get wiped out, how is that the governments fault? Blame your bank's management, it's their fault.
    Mar 30, 2013. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A trust sues Bank of America's (BAC) Merrill Lynch for ~$310M in connection with the securitization of nearly 6,000 mortgages in 2007. The suit, which alleges breach of representations and warranties related to the securitizations, was filed Friday in New York State Supreme Court.  [View news story]
    And the fun never stops! It's just another buying opportunity for picking up some BAC stock.
    Mar 30, 2013. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA (BAC) and Societe Generale (SCGLF.PK) have appealed a judge's denial of a lawsuit in which they sought to reverse regulatory approval of MBIA's (MBI) restructuring in 2009. The bank's argue that overhaul harmed them as policy holders, and that the authorization "was arbitrary and capricious and an abuse of discretion." [View news story]
    Moynihan at BAC should take Bruce Berkowitz's recommendation and settle with MBI. No need to give money to lawyers for a lost cause. Practically everyone else has settled with MBI except these two companies.
    Mar 30, 2013. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Is Expensive At Any Price [View article]
    Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in retrospect seem safer as a market now than they did back in the housing bubble. The quality of those MBS are really what matters, I think Bob Benmosche is good enough at risk management to know what he is doing. Besides, this is CMBS that is increasing, not RMBS. I might care if RMBS was increasing rapidly, but that's not the case.

    The risks are not that big, the stock is already priced to death. The Risk/Reward here is way off the charts in my opinion.

    Full Disclosure:
    Long: AIG and AIG warrants
    (Members of my family have a net long AIG exposure through stock, warrants, and funds)
    Mar 30, 2013. 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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