Seeking Alpha

wald22

wald22
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View wald22's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Clarification Regarding Chesapeake Energy's Western Anadarko Asset Sale [View article]
    Ellis and Roger Mills counties in Oklahoma CHK should have kept. Sell the best to keep the rest don't make a lot of sense to me unless you can use that money to do something better somewhere else. I hope they can, but the more I look at what they are doing makes less and less sense to me. CHK's reputation is going down hill.
    Jul 4, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake's latest deal improves and simplifies balance sheet, analyst says [View news story]
    @oilin07
    Why is it The Time To Buy Now. When it gets to $5, you can buy 2 shares for 1. When it gets to $2, you can buy 5 shares for 1. There is no rush to hurry.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake to sell Oklahoma assets to private company for $840M [View news story]
    I just don't get the math. Your total costs are $3B. You sell it for $840M. On the last big sale to SWN, they sold a cost structure of $12B for less then half. If this is making money, then there is something wrong with me. Using TulsaGuy's words of assuming sold assets are representative of the whole, we shareholders are in a world of hurt. Truth be told here, CHK could end up selling the whole thing and not even cover its debt before shareholders ever get one penny. CHK's debt and work obligations exceed market cap by 4 times. What are share holders holding here other then nothing. No wonder the stock is going down.
    Jul 2, 2015. 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake to sell Oklahoma assets to private company for $840M [View news story]
    I don't see it as a good deal, but CHK just got tired of the dividend and royalty costs. The $840 million covers the drilling of the 190 good horizontel wells they drilled since 2012 along with the not good wells. The 1500 producing wells and leased land held by production they gave away for free. This is a very good area, but too small for CHK. CHK simply does not want to spend funds on something small when they need to drill their big areas. There is also considerable amount of cash and working capital that goes with it. The problem with the 1500 wells is that the oil has to be trucked. I used to live in this area, and CHK has become a dirty word here. Looks like to me CHK sold what they didn't sell before in Ellis and Roger Mills Oklahoma counties for a song, in order to save drilling costs that can be better applied on their big projects. They had about $3B in costs minus produc tion they sold to get the $840M minus the cash on hand and working capital that goes with it the sale.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The USA Is Not Turning Into Greece [View article]
    The USA will follow Greece for the very same reason. It's called stupidity in trusting bankers. Greek banks don't even have the money Greek people have entrusted them as savings. Neither do the US banks. Closing the Athens stock exchange and banks is a policy blunder of stupendous magnitude. The little people can't even sell to limit their losses as the banksters short the shit out their meager investments. Look how that worked out in Cypress not long ago. The Cypress index went down 99% and then another 98% after that. A 98% haircut of the remaining 1%. That is a royal scr*w if there ever was one. The USA will end up the same way within the next 10 years for the very same reason. Banks here like in Greece are not putting savings to work to help the economy, but are instead gambling with it in the derivative market. All Greece had to do was let the savings deposits be returned to the people, and let the system go on a cash only basis until Greece could recover. But no stupidity had to take hold. Same will happen here. It simply comes down to this, either we the people control the banks or the banksters control us. The people in Greece and the people in the US would rather suck up to the banksters instead of taking control of them. For money to be good, it has to be put to work in constructive enterprises that put people to work and pays them a salary so they can spend to keep the economy flowing.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economy Grows, Greek Debt Default Looms [View article]
    <At the end of the day, though, the fundamentals, especially here in the U.S., remain sound> we are doing what Greece did, live off of debt. We can still borrow, Greece can't. <Over the medium-to-longer term we can expect continued growth> of ever more debt counted as GDP. <Greece, is a small piece in the puzzle> of what will soon happen here and for the same reason. Greek banks didn't even have 10% of the depositors money on hand. They had to borrow it from the European Central Bank. Same is true in the USA. <Absent some kind of systemic crisis> we have no idea what is going on behind closed doors. <A Greek default simply won't be that damaging> big things always start small, especially with the pile of derivatives that are about to rock the financial world. Greeks like Americans need to learn how to bank under your bank mattress. To give money (savings) so they can blow it is stupid. If we are so stupid all is lost. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. When you can't even get your own savings back from a bank, that should give you a warning of just how corrupt the system is.
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Metaxas Moment? [View article]
    Greece has the same problem we have. The money in circulation to repay people holding savings in banks does not exist. Thus Greek banks are borrowing from the European central bank to meet savings withdrawls. We like Greece need ever more debt to keep the spiel going. Like them, in debt we believe, thus add the debt to the unborn who can't say no. Democracy at work. Talk about shit for brains.
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Metaxas Moment? [View article]
    You know what is so funny about the whole thing. The banks can't even give the people their own money back. They had to borrow it. If the same was to happen in the USA, the very same thing would happen. There is only $2.7Trillion in circulation in the USA, and the on balance sheet debt is $18T and the off balance sheet debt exceeds $200 Trillion. We have become the most crookedest people on earth. Hell is empty because all of the devils are here. The bond bubble is getting pricked, and the banksters are shorting it to kingdom come. The middle class is getting the best screwing possible.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Doorstep Of A Fed Rate Hike Cycle [View article]
    @Calculus
    I did not fall off my farm tractor. We may be the largest oil, gas, and electricity producer, but what good is that doing us. We waste a good part of it. You forgot one thing that we produce the most of, and that is debt. That debt is a chain and ball around our oil, gas and electric production.
    Jun 28, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Doorstep Of A Fed Rate Hike Cycle [View article]
    Low interest rates increases debt dependency. Greece like the USA is living off of debt, not production. Low interest rates stores up debt for the future. The future for Greece is now, for the US soon. Salmo trutta above is right. Greenslime fathered the great recession, and bonehead bernanke never raised rates to stop the debt pyramiding. Greece can't use QE but the USA can. All QE does is repay old debt with new debt the unborn have to pay.
    Jun 28, 2015. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chesapeake Energy Is Working Toward A Turnaround [View article]
    @Richard 48
    Did a little checking out based on your post after mine saying I was wrong. You are mostly right, but I found a lot more. >>>>

    Chesapeake had gone on a company/acreage acquisition binge throughout the early/mid 2000's, constantly outspending cash flow. After the $2.3 billion acquisition of Columbia Natural Resources, the story about the company changed. Management repeatedly stated that the asset accumulation phase was over, and now was the time to harvest those best-in-class assets.

    But he problem with having such a large acreage position is that if you don't put a ton of rigs to work on it, it will take you a generation or two to drill all of your wells. Having a 20, 30 or 40 year backlog of inventory is a terrible thing once you account for the cost of the lease, the capitalized interest, the landmen and corporate and legal expense, etc. These leases now have a negligible or negative PV. As an investor today, why should I care about a well we're going to drill in 2039? What kind of discount rate do you even use on that? And how do you account for the fact that this particular company cant grow without diluting shareholders? Because of this, there are diminishing marginal returns to having a large acreage positions like Chesapeake's. When Chesapeake signs new leases, that new acreage either goes to the back of the line in which case it's got a negative PV, or it goes to the front of the line which means some other lease essentially got condemned. Companies talk all the time about "high grading" their acreage, but all this really is is an admission that they lost millions of dollars in leases signed years ago. This is one of the problems with gigantic companies like Chesapeake - they'll never be able to drill up all of the acreage, yet many people still assign it equity value. And those analyses are essentially assuming that those future wells are profitable. But at today's prices most are not.

    CHK has another problem called VPP's volumetric production payments which are accounted for as income yet are in reality off balance sheet loans.
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Isn't There Something Weird About The Timing? [View article]
    To me, the referendum ploy was a last minute tool to gain more time in hopes of getting a better deal. Greece like Ukraine needs a big debt write down. Ukraine is asking for a 40% debt write down and wants the new debt (bonds) that pays the old debt be tied to the performance of its economy going forward. Greece wants the same. Also Russia wants Greece to default and start over with an operating loan from the BRICS BANK.

    Russia has its own financial problems, and they want out of the US banking cartel control. Russia sees itself having a financial problem, a problem that they feel was and is caused by the US banking cartel. Truth be told, the Greek financial problem can be laid on the US banking cartel steps of Goldman Sucks. Truth be told Lloyd Blankfein is pure evil. As far as he is concerned he is GOD.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Looks like Russia and China want Greece to default and then ask the BRICS Bank for a operating loan to be backed by real estate.
    Jun 28, 2015. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Yes I agree that EU states are vassals of the US. After all the idea is to unite Europe under one Euro currency and at a later date unite the Euro and US dollar. That is why Greece won't be kicked out. I also agree that the US wants to f**k the EU, but not the Euro dollar. The US sees a united Europe as a problem, a divided Europe as a plus. But it wants Europe under the control of one currency. Greece is simply going to have to operate on a cash basis until they can build up their credit score again.
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chesapeake Energy Is Working Toward A Turnaround [View article]
    CHK will get a lot smaller as expired leases are let go. In the past CHK put in $8 million per well to get $6 million back after all production costs. That has to stop. From here on out it has to high grade, or in other words it has to spend $6 million and get $8 million back after all production expenses. Thus 80% of the leases they hold are worthless. They have to drill on the 20% that they know is good. Since everybody is high grading, production actually has increased, thus lower prices. That will continue for many more years to come. To me CHK needs to be split into two companies. One for holding the leases as if it was a real estate company. One as production company as if it was a producer of energy. I think that is how to unlock value in CHK.
    Jun 27, 2015. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
274 Comments
267 Likes