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wald22

wald22
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  • Talkin' And Yellen: Understanding The Fed [View article]
    The $700Trillion in Counter Party Global Derivative Risk problem never went away. The FED would be foolish not to consider that pyramid on the outlook of FED policy. This is the Primary Reason Central Banks are printing to infinity. Nothing is being done to fix it. There is no bid for new production (12% of the economy) because most of the public is broke. Consumption growth is deteriorating, productivity is going down. American consumers and businesses are unable to increase spending to offset the global slowdown. Mainstreet needs lower fuel prices, lower health care costs, lower housing costs, lower interest costs. Until productivity and wages for main street go up, the Fed had better think about how to lower the rates for mainstreet and raising them for Wall Street. The only reason we at the moment have some resiliency in the US economy is because the debt pile is growing at 26% and taxes are taking in 17% of the economy. Since 2008 corporate debt has doubled and was mostly used to buy back shares to increase earnings per share so called by accounting the loan proceeds as cash flow that was used in buying back shares. The so called resiliency is nothing more than borrowing to keep going. Ever lower interest rates makes that all possible. In 10 years from now the 9% of world debt that has a negative rate will change to 36%. In the next 10 years property taxes will double. Right now the principal paid on mortgages equals about what is being paid for property taxes. But 10 years from now it will be twice as much. The FED outlook so called is all bullshit. There will be an event that will make their so called outlook look stupid. So far the FED has removed the word patience. The FED is using a string to push water up hill. They are totally brain dead. Their data dependency is full of shit, for the data itself is full of shit. The FED needs to clean the shit out of their own house and start over. They need to think bottom up not top down. As more and more people simply exit the system to work towards self sufficiency instead of taking a job, there will be ever fewer people paying taxes, thus more new debt will be needed to service the
    old debt.
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talkin' And Yellen: Understanding The Fed [View article]
    The $700Trillion in Counter Party Global Derivative Risk problem never went away. This is the Primary Reason Central Banks have printed to infinity to support this monster global debt growth scheme. We keep forgetting and behaving as if it didn't happen. Doing nothing to fix it, is hardly the same as preventing it. Had we prevented it, we would't have to fix it. There is no bid for new production because most of the public is broke. Growth is deteriorating, productivity is going down. American consumers and businesses are unable to increase spending to offset the global slowdown. Mainstreet needs lower fuel prices, lower health care costs, lower housing costs, zero interest costs. Until productivity and wages for main street go up, the Fed had better think about how to lower the rates for mainstreet and raising them for wallstreet. If I was the Fed right now I would force banks to pay 5% interest on deposits for safekeeping instead of using customer money (savings) to invest in derivatives that serve as bank assets. What a scam. Long term we are going to hell. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. There is a good chance before the presidential election we have a 800 point down day on Wall Street. Something has to set the stage to undo the derivative pyramid.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A 'Sheer Misery' Market Defined [View article]
    @jj937
    What is your guarantee backed with. I want to make sure I can't lose.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green QE [View article]
    @John Wayne
    (It is possible that earnings per share increase as a result of buying back stock, but you don't borrow money and call it "earnings.")
    But that is exactly what most corporations are doing. Buy back shares with borrowed money, where the proceeds of that loan are used for stock buy backs and at the same time accounted for as cash flow. I am talking about trillions of dollars worth. Your earnings should be cashflow that ends up as part of earnings.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green QE [View article]
    QE is nothing more then writing a check on an account with nothing in it, but is accounted for as if it was borrowed to pay for Treasury debt and bundled home mortgages that banks sold to the FED. It temporarily takes those holdings off the banks books and moves it on the the books of the FED. The bank that gets that check, uses that check as if it was an asset. It can't cash that check until the Fed says it can, but it can return that check and get the bundled home mortgages back or the Treasury debt it offloaded on the FED. It is basically the same thing most corporations are now doing with stock buy backs. You borrow a sum of money, use it to buy the company shares with it, but account the proceeds of that loan as earnings cash flow, for which it is not. Same applies to banks selling their bundled home mortgages or Treasury debt to the FED. It is accounted for as cash flow. Cash flow is everything. It's called financial engineering, but to me is is called financial scre*ing. I don't have a college degree in finance.

    It used to be bankers kept the loans in-house, but that is no longer the case. Every time a sale transaction is made it is accounted for as cash flow, even though right now those transactions are just an exchange of assets. The problem with bundled mortgages is that it only needs a few bad apples (deals) in that bundle to make the entire package worth less if not worthless in the eyes of a buyer because you never know how many bad apples are in that bundle going forward. Holding a FED check eliminates that.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon statement says U.S. needs to adjust energy policies [View news story]
    All of you are missing a critical point. The present deal with Saudi Arabia = 1/2 priced oil for 1/2 priced gold. 1/2 of that 1/2 priced gold is to be used for payment for weapons import at the current price of gold. Right now Saudi Arabia has become the largest importer of weapons in US$ terms. The Saudis are reselling a good part of these weapons. Gold and oil are joined at the hip. We are going to see ever lower gold price, and ever lower oil price for a few years along with an ever stronger US$. The idea being is to help US manufacturing to compete against China and others. If given enough time this idea will work. If we export that oil and gas it will not.

    There is a second problem that oil and gas have. That problem is the near 0 interest rates. Near 0 rates is hurting consumption, because we have an aging population that is trying to elevate returns by investing in higher risk, and by doing so have lost considerable amount of principal. Most oil stocks have been reduced by 50% and will soon get hit again by 50%, thus a lot less is available for consumption. According to the IRS 87% of the returns coming in have losses in investments, and most of those losses are oil and gas related.
    Mar 16, 2015. 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed May Stay 'Patient' A Little Longer [View article]
    We have a falling worker participation rate, not full employment. There is lots of inflation, especially in health care, basics most people need. People are forced to cut back spending to service the debt they hold. The financial engineering of corporate earnings by increasing debt to support the facade of so called profitability is doing nothing to increase employment of people looking for full time employment. The dollar's rise in value is equivalent to raising interest rates, which equals a policy of tightening on Main Street. The FED at some point will have to realize that to save the fiat fraud system, it has to help Main Street, not Wall Street. Soon there will be no bids on Wall Street, then the crap will hit the fan. The sooner the better. This economic concentration camp has to come to an end. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment Rises Strongly Again: So, What's The Problem? [View article]
    The problem is that the prestigious of distinction crap employment report is full of crap. For many people who have been unemployed for a long time are no longer counted as unemployed, but as employed as being self employed doing odd jobs where-ever they can find them. I live in a poor area, and I am supprised how many people are in the junk business, and will do just about anything for cash. Even rent a wife is becoming an occupation. Every man and woman has a $56,000 debt hanging on their neck and every taxpayer has a debt of $154,000 hanging on their neck. In less then 10 years that will double. The road to hell is paved with debt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely
    Mar 7, 2015. 08:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Chesapeake Buy Chesapeake? It Should [View article]
    CHK has a cash flow problem. Their operating units lose about $3B a year. That is why they must keep selling parts of the company every year. Everybody here says CHK is a gas and oil producer. It is not. It is basically a real estate firm that sells leases. The value of the leases depends on what their drilling can find. The previous CEO did a lot of wildcat drilling in the hopes of hitting a big hole (find) to increase the value of that least land. CHK has a lot of land on the market with no takers. So if I was CHK I would not be in a hurry to take on more leases. There are big write downs coming from land they can not sell, can't afford to drill, don't want to renew the expiring leases. The real value of CHK is about $8 a share. At that price, CHK should be buying its own stock. CHK needs to reduce debt as fast as it can because the value of the company is dropping fast. The company is becoming smaller and it has to keep downseizing for many years to come. The dividend has to be cut to zero. It makes no sense to pay a dividend when that money is needed to pay down debt. CHK at present oil and gas prices will never be profitable. Selling a big chunk off to SWN was smart for CHK, but they need that every year. That is the only way they can cash flow. But in reality SWN was a fool for doing what they did and CHK sold off a junk of least land for a lot less then what they had in it. Right now CHK is sitting on a lot of worthless least land with a lot of pissed off royalty holders, that all has to be written down, or written off. True value of CHK= Assets minus liabilities that keep on growing = shareholder value. CHK assets are way overvalued, its liabilities keep growing if that land is not put into productive use = ever lower share holder value. Buying back shares at today's price and at a later date be forced to issue stock at a much lower price is not all that smart for the company. But it may help a few big stockholders be able to sell to get out at the expense of long term holders who will be left holding the so called BAG. CHK needs to downseize and downseize its debt.
    Mar 7, 2015. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Reason Why The Fed Should Increase The Federal Funds Rate Any Time Soon [View article]
    For as long as the ZIRP interest rate exists the speculators will leverage their speculations to destroy honest price discovery in the economy. The FED needs to raise individual savings rates to 5% so people are not forced to play the manipulated game. If we don't then all is lost. And as far as I am concerned, the sooner the better. Low interest rates destroys the real economy. Volcker proved that the only way to stop speculators from destroying the real economy is to stop them from doing just that. Raise the rates 1% a month until this monetary cancer the speculators are playing on the economy stops. There is nothing wrong with cheaper prices. I would rather buy cheap then high. Deflation is good. And we need it. Let the government write the debt off on their income tax. Scr*w debt holders.
    Jan 10, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Rallies On Fed Minutes, Solid Employment Growth [View article]
    Job growth has been made possible by more credit spending, which won't last. The economy has picked up by more debt spending, which won't last. The US$ is stronger because the supply of dollars available to pay debt with is not even 1/20 of the debt that needs servicing. The shale revolution was a scam where you borrowed $130 to get a $100 worth of oil per barrel that has been reduced to $50. The banks keep selling shit (called credit) for our shoes (earned money) and call it capitalism. All this shit will end in the dumnster sooner or later.
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    The present problem with the oil price has everything to do with financialization. The logic behind financialization is simply to drive highly debt leveraged oil and gas producers into near bankruptcy to screw the shareholders, so they have to suck up to the banksters for new debt financing to pay off the old unpayable debt. Bond debt has prority over shareholder debt. Bubbles be it in home mortgages, dot.com, oil, or whatever are created to make money on the way up and then down. Same thing is happening in the cattle industry and farmland. It used to be savings were part of the money in loans, but that has changed to credit from paper gold or silver. That is why the biggest banks are sending out letters that your savings are a pile of shit that is no longer needed. Financialization is like interest that is usury except in financialization it is capital itself that is usury. Bend over and take it, for we are going back to feudalism. Oil like land with low interest loans can be driven to irrational heights and then dumped for the love of money through financialization. On the 1600 page bill that our beloved representatives agreed to, has a few words in there that says that the banksters will be bailed out on their financialization losses. In truth it means the bulls are the taxpayers, and the bears are the banksters taking from the bulls the taxpayer. But now days, there is not one taxpayer reading reading the shit our so called representatives are writing. There is no democracy in America of the FED. In debt we believe. There is no debt free money allowed to enter into the system. Thus old debt can only be paid with new debt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 Year Left In The Cattle Bull Market [View article]
    Costs to own, maintain, and land overhead costs per cow are increasing. We have a good grain crop. Yet the cow numbers are low. Last winter was hard on many beef cows. A good percentage of those cows that suffered through last winter never dropped a live calf because of their poor condition. Many of those cows went on grass for a few months to gain weight before getting shipped. I see the cattle market staying strong do to strong exports and lack of supply. Turnover on cattle has dramatically increased. The veal market is hot. A lot of calves are getting killed under 500 lbs.
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • October Jobs Report: Solid Improvement, Except For Discouraged Workers [View article]
    All of these so called employment reported number are all bullshit. The only good thing about the economy is that ever more people simply work in the underground economy for cash. Be it selling weed, prostitution or whatever. That part of the economy is growing. To prove my point just take a look what is being advertised on craig list. The underground economy has different words for weed or prostitution, that the above ground economy has yet to learn. Go to most midwest livestock auctions and you see something else that has not been seen for a long time. Fed goats and feeder goats getting auctioned off. Hay, straw, firewood, machinery getting auctioned off. Scrap metal for cash employs a lot of people. In Maine hemp is the biggest cash crop, yet it is not on the list of agriculture crops. Where I am right now in Texas, the stealing economy is growing fast. Living of the land and self sufficiency in rural areas is growing. The calf trade has really taken off. If you have a few milk goats and chickens that lay eggs, you can make your own milk replacer to feed out small calves from first calf heifers that bring a dollar a pound or less into something that is over 95lbs that brings up to $5 a pound. The underground is the only real economy growing in the USA. The rest is just a financialization economy based on define bullshit. Just because a company borrows a lot of money and reports the loan proceeds as derivative income to shareholders does not make a growing economy. But it does make the debt bubble grow ever bigger. In debt we believe. People's debts are considered bank assets. The only real growth in this economy is debt accounted for as assets.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Reason Gold Will See $5000 [View article]
    In our Constitution gold and silver is money. But in reality, the credit as in credit card or mortgages is money. The problem we have is that there are no Americans in America. Nobody stands for the Constitution. In debt we believe. But there is a problem. Economics 101 dictates that the supply/demand imbalances will eventually correct itself. Paper gold is much cheaper to produce, thus the physical gold can't compete. This situation has come about because most people don't give a shit about the Constitution, don't give a shit about gold. Gold has become shit because nobody believes in it as a currency. In debt we believe, until that debt enslaves us all. The dollar is not stronger because the dollar is worth more. The dollar is stronger because ever more dollar units are needed to service the debt, thus the economy prime function as we go forward is to service the debt instead of making life easier for the working man who is ever more forced to take out debt just to live. In the coming years food will be the new gold because we are on a meat complex that has to compete with the fuel complex. You can't eat gold, but most of us do eat food. Thus food will become the new gold complex.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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