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wald22

wald22
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  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    The reality is that the United States has become the "Consumer of Last Resort" for the world. We need to ramp up a huge spending program so people who want to become self sufficient and self reliant can do that by giving them income support to do just that. Do away with welfare. And we need to finance the self sufficient and self reliant program with printed up cash that goes directly to those people who want to become self reliant. Screw this deficit spending BS to increase the debt.
    May 17, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    "...being able to accumulate and being able to invest those savings productively" QE returned a lot of money to investors for that purpose. If that was true business investment spending should have gone up. Instead it fell. Corporations are seeing aggregate demand falling, thus the stock buy backs with mostly borrowed money done to increase cash flow by accounting the proceeds from the borrowings as cash flow. This is not investing.

    I am not worried about deflation. Lower prices are good. I don't mind cheaper milk. Stock and bond prices need to fall 50% to bring them in line so the economy can grow by real productivity rather then speculation. The so called equity market is no longer an equity market. It has become a screw market. US real inflation is twice the number reported. Real GDP is falling. US employment numbers are a complete scam. We need lower electricity prices, lower food costs, lower health care costs, lower fuel costs, etc., and we need higher wages for the bottom 50% of the workforce. Instead of welfare we need income support for people who want to become self sufficient and self reliant. We need to cut government spending on useless programs and the industrial military complex. None of this will happen until the shit has hit the fan.
    May 17, 2015. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    A weaker dollar may help improve exports, but it also increases the costs of imports. And we import a lot more then we export. Thus a weaker dollar is a net negative. The reason real productivity is falling is because real productivity depends on labor being able to save, being able to accumulate and being able to invest those savings productively. That no longer exists. The US and Global economy is dissenting into stagflation as debt growth is overwhelming the system. The only growth we have is debt, and that is not a good thing. As long as the FED keeps trying to keep the bond and stock market up for the benefit of a corrupt Wall Street and Banksters instead of the labor (working people), real productivity will fall. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Our system is going to fail catastrophically, unless we give the working stiff a better deal. We just don't have the ability to do that. But we do know how to screw.
    May 17, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $5B Write-Down By Chesapeake Spooks Investors, But Is It Much Ado About Nothing? [View article]
    CHK sits on a lot of leased land that simply has no value at today's natural gas or oil price. There simply is no profit in drilling $8M wells to get $4M back in profits per well. The trouble with today's accounting is that entry activities can make things look better then what they really are. What is to stop a company from borrowing money and use the proceeds as cash flow. Most companies are doing just that. With CHK it is a little different. It sits on a lot of leased land that simply is not profitable to hold at today's energy prices.
    May 9, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Chesapeake Energy Stock After Its First-Quarter Loss [View article]
    CHK has a lot more write downs coming unless they can sell the bad parts. CHK has a lot of land leases on the market with no takers. CHK lost a bundle on the sale to SWN and in today's market that sale would not even bring half for what it sold for. To me CHK has no choice but to become smaller. You simply can't keep putting $8M holes into the ground and get $4M back in profits. Something has to give. Either natural gas and oil prices have to double, or CHK has to stop drilling holes. Anything is possible but neither are likely. I don't own the stock and I think anything above $9 a share is pure speculation. But should natural gas and oil prices double, then $18 a share is reasonable. But I am too stupid to predict the future of energy prices.
    May 8, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes [View article]
    At the moment commodity currencies are getting support from higher crude oil prices. The Euro region is emerging from its long period of stagnation, aided by lower oil prices, a weakening Euro, and a QE program that is working to keep the main Euro players together that leaves Greece out. To me the FED will start its first rate increase in June by a small amount, and again in September. I feel the USA is reaching an endgame, an endgame that is deflationary for assets and inflationary for basic needs people need. What I see coming is outstanding debt deflation as interest rates rise and the US$ becomes stronger. Ever more people are being forced to pull back on spending to basic necessities that will over time collapse vast areas of current economic activity. In today's world of low cost overseas production, the US middle class is getting destroyed. We will see increasing trade deficits, higher bond yields, lower bond prices, stronger US$.
    May 6, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes [View article]
    What is different this time around is that we have become debt disabled. That is, we are already saturated with debt, therefore unwilling and unable to service new debt, due to a lack of real income growth. It used to be that an administration had enough sense to come up with a spending program that would work good enough to pay back the funds borrowed to bring about the program. Right now we suffer from chronic excess borrowings that is curtailing productive investing and savings and creating ever more systemic financial risk. Ever more money is being placed into the financial casino instead of productive enterprises. What we really need right now is for the debt ponzi scheme to collapse. It is time we take a sh*t and get off the debt pot.
    May 5, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Takeaways From The 'Rethinking Macro Policy: Progress Or Confusion?' [View article]
    Excess borrowings by all forms of government, be it local, city, state and federal, is curtailing productive investing and destroying the value of savings. Savings no longer have a way to become productive because low rates have killed it. That is why ever more money is being placed into leveraged casinos instead of productive enterprises. The debt overhang is destroying the real economy. The only way the real economy can grow is by removing the excess debt. It can't be paid, so it has to be defaulted on. Either write it down, or devalue the currency. Neither is pleasant.
    May 3, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year [View article]
    To me the FED has no choice but to raise rates. The longer this low rate is allowed to continue, the more capital destruction will take place. What we really need is debt destruction, not capital destruction. Raise the rates and let debt destruct in value.
    May 2, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Loss Of Liquidity Could Cause A Summer Grexit [View article]
    I have this feeling that the payment system will implode in Greece. The Greek economy is more and more underground and ever more in cash. Most Greek people no longer trust banks over cash. What is happening to Greece now will soon happen to the USA. Under the Bush 2007 Bankruptcy Reform Act, personal savings are treated as if they were donations to banks, which are structured as unsecured debt. In the event of a bank failure, FDIC has to bail out the personal savings, for bank derivatives will be paid out first. Our problem much like the Greek problem is that technology has enabled high frequency trading, reverse repo swaps, huge derivative bets and the shadow banking fraud pool up outside the control of regulators. Here like in Greece, everything now depends on the condition of phantom collateral, which makes it impossible for either our system or the Greek system to liquidate bad debt. Ever more people in both the USA and Greece are looking to find a way out of the system. Thus at some point the payment system will implode. In our case QE could keep the debt fraud from imploding for some time. The bigger the debt, the harder they fall when it finally does. In our case the FED is now stuck with QE infinity.
    May 2, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Economy: Latest Forecasts And Debates [View article]
    Foe most Russians corporate earnings mean little. Self sufficiency to them is way more important. Same applies to dividends.
    May 1, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Continues To Deteriorate [View article]
    Russia has the same shadow banking problems we have. The run up on asset prices, mainly real estate has gotten way out of line. Russia is now forced to let the Russian real estate bubble collapse. That is good. In the long run the trade sanctions the west placed on Russia will help them to become more self sufficient and rely less on imports. The west is way underestimating Russia. We had our wild west years ago and they have theirs now. But Russia is moving forward, even though financially it has to unwind the bubble. That is way more then the west can do. The western central banksters are destroying their middle class so a few can get supper rich. In Russia the supper rich keep killing each other off. That is what we need in the west. Russia needs to understand that exporting its oil is a mistake over the long run. That is exactly what the USA will soon be doing. We can't export our manufacturing production because there is no demand for it so we are going to export fuel. What really gets me in the USA is the fact that we have Goldman Sachs getting paid to advice our government on how to improve our economy when in fact Goldman Sachs is sucking the blood out of our economy. They are like Dracula running a blood bank.
    May 1, 2015. 02:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cries Of Despair Induced By Wednesday's Disappointing First-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Report [View article]
    Quantitative Easing or QE is a fancy term for the FED's buying of securities from predefined financial institutions, such as their investments in federal debt or bundled mortgages is a regressive redistribution program that is boosting wealth for those already engaged in the financial sector. Little is passed along to the rest of the economy. It is a primary driver of income inequality. It is hurting prospects for economic recovery. QE is a means for the redistribution of unpayable debt that benefits only a narrow part of the population who trade that debt at the expense of everyone else. What we see in Amerika today is that the expense of that debt has reached a point of no return for the contracting economy. Consumers are saddled with $12 Trillion of household debt that must be serviced before new consumption increases can take place. Thus corporate inventories are building up. Seeing that, corporations are looking to increase earnings per share through stock buy backs with borrowed money. The only good thing about QE is the FED itself may get stuck holding the unpayable debt. For Amerika to go forward the FED is going to have to buy the rest of the unpayable debt. After all they are the only one that is allowed to write a check without having any money in the checking account. As long as it never gets cashed, there is no problem.
    Apr 30, 2015. 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. GDP Growth Slows To A Crawl In Q1 [View article]
    Just because the trillionaires have lots of money to spend does not mean the average joe and jane have more disposable personal income. There is a reason why they are tapping into debt to pay bills with. Consumers are simply not consuming like they used to. That is why corporate real revenues and profits are falling. That is why corporations are buying back their shares with borrowed money to increase their earnings per share. In the old school 1+1=2, but now for income reporting 1+1=4 with the exception for income tax reporting, then 1+1=0. The reason financial markets are being elevated is because Wall Street has lots of hot air credit created out of thin air to feed the high frequency computer trading of ever more hot air. Useful disposable income is falling in real time, but not for government reporting.
    Apr 29, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grexit: For Real This Time? [View article]
    All Greece has to do is do nothing. Let the payment date lapse without making a payment. To make a payment due to obtain more is simply transferring the growing debt to a later date. In the meantime interest cost keeps growing. If I was Greece I would simply do nothing. Let the Euro countries kick out Greece out of the Euro. Let the Greek banks implode. They belong in hell anyway. Let the cash economy take over. Pay all government employees and pensioners 1/20 of present salary with IOU's and let the cash economy have a chance to grow. As it grows increase those salaries by the same percentage as the cash economy is growing. Most of them will simply resign and thus make room for people to run for office who really care about Greece instead of for themselves only.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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