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wald22

wald22
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  • Gold And Silver: More Short-Term Pain? [View article]
    Calling GLD and SLV to represent physical gold when they are manipulated paper gold to manipulate the gold price is wrong. Saying that there is no inflation is wrong also. There is massive inflation in the pipeline. Just look at what is happening to livestock prices. But the biggest thing to come that will change the cost basis of just about everything produced, with the exception of paper money.
    Jun 10 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 Year Left In The Cattle Bull Market [View article]
    The costs to maintain a cow/calf operations are increasing dramatically. It is those costs that will limit beef and milk production in the future. The cost increases are related to weather, crop growing conditions and soil fertility. A lot of cattle last winter actually lost weight instead of gaining due to the animals having to spend more feed to keep their bodies warm. The nutritional content of our feed supply is down more than 50% from 50 years ago, and that will continue. I do not beleive we in the US can increase our beef production to a higher level, because the cost to do so is going to go so high that at some point the consumer will be forced to become vegetarians. Yes cattle prices are higher right now. But I believe they will go higher next spring for the very same reasons they went so high this year. It is because the lower feed quality and colder winters lower the ability for animals to gain weight. I think that problem is here to stay.
    May 31 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inconvenient Marriage Of Yuan And Gold [View article]
    The FED can grow the financial GDP with QE but it can not produce beef or plant food. It has always been that nature credits, man debits. In our quest for cheap energy, we let escape massive volumes of methane gas that dries out moisture that rises from the ground to fall again. Without rain, nature can not credit what man wants to debit. Thus mankind has to irrigate, which increases the cost of plant food production. Right now we are increasing natural gas production that gets piped to processing plants where that piped gas form the wells gets stripped down into different energy products that have higher value. One of the side products is methane gas. Since we place little value on methane gas it is mainly allowed to escape into the open air. Even if we could increase the human and animal population a thousand fold, the methane gas production from that would be at least a 1000 less then the methane presently allowed to escape into the open air from the production of oil and natural gas. We need to capture this gas and use it, or live with a constant decrease in rainfall. Water begets water as in rainfall. If the water is gone, it can't rise and come down again. Thus the circle of life comes to an end. FED QE can help the value of debt, which over a long period of time can only damage the economy, but it can not fix our methane allowed to escape problem that is changing the circle of life.
    Apr 16 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investing In Chesapeake Energy Is Not A Good Idea [View article]
    The problem CHK has is the same many other corporations have. On the left side of the ledger nothing is right and on the right side of the ledger nothing is left. Billions in asset sales; billions from JV partners, billions in revenue, year after year and yet no meaningful debt reduction. Actually debt has increased if one ads the off balance sheet debt. Also it is now getting sued big time for drilling under land it has no lease on. That is the unseen part of horizontal drilling. Al CHK can do is keep rolling it's problem into the future, just like the US Treasury has to keep rolling it's growing debt into the future. Selling the oil service business looks good on paper but not on the ground. If it can't do it inhouse cheaper then by contracting out, then there is something wrong with manegment. The problem they have like so many others like them have is that they can't drill fast enough to keep up with depletion. Also they can't hook the new drilling due to lack of connections. If I was CHK I would keep the oil service business and form a seperate entity to hold the leases they simply can't afford to drill to hold by production. Set it up so others can drill them via the option route, yet keep enough interest in the play to, if there is one to be, that it can profit from it.
    Mar 26 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Businesses Could Begin Spending Again Soon [View article]
    There is an unseen financial and economic aspects of the Ukrainian crisis. A helpless West facing a serious risk of a Ukrainian default. Either the west gives them the money to pay the debt or ??????. I believe there will be a wake up call soon as Russia takes eastern Ukraine and at the same time defaults on its debt it owes the west. What better way is there to default by calling it a trade sanction. Russia's TIT for TAT. The west sanctions on Russia are going to back fire. Putin is smart. He figured out that the whole point of derivatives used in commodity trading is to suppress commodity prices. He is going to use it against us. He also knows the US Fed is destroying the future of America. The money creation via credit creation = debt creation. All of this debt is the rope that hangs the US economy. It is going to have to create a lot more debt to bail out western Ukraine. I have this feeling that neither the USA or Europe will bail out Ukraine. That is the signal Putin will use to go into eastern Ukraine. The more I look at this I see a desperate president trying to fix the US economy by starting a war. That is why the US financed the skin heads now in control in Ukraine. For the skinheads to win an election, there had better be some real economic progress in that country, or the Russians will be invited in like it happened in Crimea. I think Obama wants to start a war to help the US economy. For a short time it may just work. War brings in outside demand. I beleive there will be a bang, and I believe the world will not end.
    Mar 22 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Businesses Could Begin Spending Again Soon [View article]
    I agree with snoopy above with one exception. And that is war. To start with
    debt is an obligation laid upon the future by the past. The larger it gets, the harder it is for the future to happen. There is a correlation high levels of public debt and low economic growth. High levels of debt-to-GDP have been historically associated with low levels of economic growth. That is what has been happening in Japan for the last 23 years and in Europe and the US for the last seven. These economies are still fighting deleveraging, resisting debt deflation and pretending that they can continue to add debt forever. And that added debt somehow will get them out of their debt trap. Dream on. They are doomed. Without growth they can’t pay the debt. With so much debt, they can’t grow. Nature unlike bankers credits interest free what man debits. But in a war things change. Conquest becomes a way of taking assets from another without having to buy it if you are on the winning side. Russia can't grow internally. Ukraine can't pay the $35B it owns Russia. So what to do. Use force to take collateral. Basically Russia took Crimea without much bloodshed.
    Mar 22 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Businesses Could Begin Spending Again Soon [View article]
    The US FED knows that debt cannot repay debt in the aggregate. That is why they have QE. Only earnings can retire debt. As for currency or money, it is true that our money system represents debt that has been monetized. The interest lug on this debt is rapidly annihilating the middle class and delivering the nation into third world status. The arrival of raw materials times price man debited, nature credited delivers earnings, which is called monetization of raw materials. Only earnings can retire debt and therefore they rate attention as a sort of negative debt. A sound money system should provide for a commodity dollar, or at least for a common denominator commodity as backing for currency. In the USA, that is now oil. In Russia it is natural gas. The bottom line is that debt cannot be paid with debt, and debt generates no aggregate income that isn't offset by more debt. It takes production times price to generate aggregate income for an economy.
    The Fed can't produce real production like pears, apples, blackberries like nature can. Thus the FED is forced to replace real production with derivatives. Our food consists mostly of 3 different crops. From those 3 different crops thousands of products are made. Derivatives are like artificial substances put into food and like derivatives are derived from mostly the 3 original crops. Most of the derivatives in the financial industry are derived from the value of the US Treasury bond market and the collateralized debt market. For the derivative market to grow, the Treasury debt market has to grow, and so does the real estate collateralized debt market. Neither can before this year is over. Debt can not grow to the sky before the rug is pulled out from underneath it. This year nature will dictate the amount of stuff we can grow. And that is why Russia has no choice but to go into eastern Ukraine to get their bread as in crop and the bread as in money to be made from Ukraine's undeveloped natural gas reserves. If they don't, we will, and that will destroy their economy for what it is, which isn't much without our help with financing and technology.
    Mar 22 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Businesses Could Begin Spending Again Soon [View article]
    @Moon
    The US economy is changing from a physical economy to a make believe one via derivatives. Yes most companies have increased their cash positions for it is that cash position that backstops their derivative positions. But what you said about efficiency growing faster then the economy is simply not true. If we had efficiency like you claim, corporations would not be saddled with so much debt. Right now most corporations are borrowing a lot of money to buy back shares to increase earnings per share by simply reducing the amount of shares outstanding. This has nothing to do with efficiency, it has everything to do with accounting. Our problem is that on the left side of our accounting ledger nothing is right, and on the right side of the ledger nothing is left. That is why what is being reported as earnings per share comes from the left side of the ledger where nothing is right, and what is reported to the IRS is what is on the right side of the ledger where nothing is left. If we had real efficiency, companies would not be forced to keep cutting physical production in order to pay for derivative positions (production). Right now the make believe derivative economy exceeds real production at least 100 times over. A good example of this is the stock market. Right now computers make 68 trades for every trade made by a person. It is FED member banks computers that is forcing the market up so it can be SHORTED at some point. It is no secret that every 7 or so years we have a financial setback or crash. The whole idea of computer trades is to lure in as many human suckers as possible with their life savings as possible. That is how bears make money. After all, all the stock market is, is a war between bulls and bears, where one keeps trying to take from the other. That is not efficiency, it is like war, kill or be killed, except it is done in financial terms. Let's face it, if one invests in the stock market as stated in the Constitution of the FED, you are either take or get taken. That is not efficiency. The FED can take down this economy any time it wants to. But it can't rebuild it. The equation will always be that nature credits, man debits. Banksters that own the FED can not change that equation. So far this year nature has been hard on man. Before this year is over nature will bring more hardships on man for it is mankind that has changed nature. The earth is a living thing, the more man destroys it, the more earth (nature) will destroy man. The western drought is going to increase in area and the northern vortex is going to be here coming this July. And by July Russia will be forced to go into eastern Ukraine because that is where the bread is. By bread I mean as in food and money via shale gas exports. Russia can not let western corporations develope the cheap undeveloped shale gas that is there that would compete directly with their high priced shale gas, the Russian's export to Europe. Russia sold $20B+ US Treasury bonds to finance the take over of Crimea. It recently sold $100B worth of US Treasury bonds to finance the build up of its armed force along the eastern border of Ukraine. It will sell a lot more US Treasury bonds to finance the to be take over of Eastern Ukraine when they feel the time is right. They are hoping that by taking a little at a time they can get away with it. Who knows it might work. It has so far. The Russians will use the river as a natural border that splits Ukraine. It is our debt that makes all this possible. This is not efficiency. It has all to do with the FED that is actually financing Russia to do what they do. After all Russia sold our debt directly to them. Hitler never could have done what he did if the FED had not financed him. Even our own government can only do what the FED makes it possible for the government to do. Truth is, if it wasn't for the FED's QE, the government could not borrow any more. Interest rates would be 19%+ like in 1988. Before this year is over interest rates will double. Low interest rates makes possible misplaced investments in asset inflation instead of production of real things. That is not efficiency. This country is efficient in the taking of savings from other countries that makes possible our lifestyle, where we will always spend more then what we make. This is going to come to an end. And when it finally does real efficiency will finally be allowed to take place. And it is going to come at a much higher interest rate that will stop this speculation on asset inflation. After all when all is said and done, the FED will be forced to protect the US$. A farmer who borrows $1,000,000 to make a net income of $10,000 can never be as efficient as one who borrowes $100,000 to make $10,000 net. Same is true with corporations. Right now a lot of farmers are borrowing $1,000,000 in hopes a greater fool will come along and buy them out at $2,000,000. Only a larger dose of QE can make that happen.
    Mar 22 07:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There's Not Much Market Ado About Ukraine [View article]
    @Dag1996 Financial markets are not controlled by people, the are controlled by FED member banks use of computers. On average right now the computers trade 69 shares for ever 1 share traded by an individual. More and more issues trade with a 10% price movement between the high and low on any given month. The individual from here on out has to trade against the computer, who usually wins.
    Interest rates will soon go up, which will force asset prices to fall. All of this is programmed into computers so watch out below. The dollar that most of us call money is not money. It's a tool to play us (we the people with). And we are going to get played. A $100000 loan on a house is backed by the collateral of the house by the borrower. The lenders $100000 loan is backed by $100000 worth of credit, the borrowers credit which gets created out of thin air through a computer. So the equation reads borrower gets $100000 of credit that costs the bank $0 in return for his $100000 IOU. It's called a royal screw.
    Mar 13 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Standoff Fuels Ag Rally, But For How Long? [View article]
    I believe there is a much bigger problem coming. QE has been and is funding the current rally in assets that is leveraged on a credit house of cards that brings about our fake fiat money and fake demand. Ukraine right now is a financial bubble that is about to burst. It owes Russia about $30 billion and three times that to the west. Russia forclosed on Ukraine by taking the land surrounded by a warm water port it needs. The USA is after the western Ukraine's recent shale gas discovery. The European union wants to be free from having to depend on USA and Russia. It is the USA that paid the rioters to riot out the newly elected Ukraine leader. It is the paid leaders of those rioters that shot the demonstrators. Ukraine is in play, Putin at the moment has the upper hand. The question now is - are we going to bail them out, or are we going to let them fall. I think they are going to fall, which will bring in the IMF who has to bring about changes the people of Ukraine can not accept. The eastern part will simply reject IMF's austerity and accept Russian handout in return for their agricultural production. And Russia is going to leverage that food, feed, fertilizer to its friends, not enemies. Obama has become absolute power that will corrupt absolutely. And as much as the Republicans think they are better, the truth is they sit on the same absolute power that corrupts absolutely, all enabled by the FED with it QE.
    Mar 6 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame It On The Weather? Not So Fast [View article]
    The FED member banks are selling junk mortgages to the FED so they can remove them from bundled securities and forclose on them. For years when real estate was going up, banks hypothecated the same properties over and over and now the opposite is taking place, known as targeted redemptions or forwards that in a lot of ways act like derivative products. We the people as individuals can not short our own properties, but once the property in in a securitized bundle it can be played like shares of any stock. We as individuals are being played, up or down in the name of profits. Banks are ever more dealing with structurede products which consists of strips of forwards, each of which has a payout as the difference between underlying value or rate on a predefined strike level much like options are traded on. As cows freeze in the north, or loose weight because of the drought in the west, we the people are getting played by the banksters in the same way nature is playing with cows. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Don't believe it, then buy Obama health insurance.
    Mar 2 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame It On The Weather? Not So Fast [View article]
    The FED has no choice but to taper. QE will never help main street. QE is meant to help banks get rid of junk mortgages in bundled securities. QE no longer works, thus the FED must stop it. The FED is out of bullets. It is nature, not the FED that credits what man debits. Right now nature is giving us a drought in one part of the country and cold weather in another. Neither is a plus. The FED needs to bring rain to one part of the country and warmer weather to another. It can do neither. Individual savings that people deposit at banks have become bank reserves that are leveraged in a ponzi scheme of derivative bets the FED now must backstop or its member banks will blow up. And blow up it will sooner or later. You can't build an economy on derivative bets.
    Mar 2 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Falling Knife Or Should You Buy Now? [View article]
    Yes they are making the right moves. Selling non-core assets looks good on paper but not in reality. They have sold a lot of good production and future production areas because it was sellable, where they are stuck with low producing areas with little hope of future production because it is not sellable. The former CEO did what he is doing again with a different vehicle. He drilled to find the outside limits of a play, and if it was not big enough he sold it. He used a lot of hype to sell those plays and down played the areas he wanted to keep. He tried to make money by having CHK being more of a real estate company then a producer of energy. The present CEO is doing the opposite. But he is stuck with a large debt overhang that has to be serviced. If I was him I would issue stock to get rid of the bank debt. I would also get rid of the dividend, and use that money to drill up expiring leases.
    Mar 1 09:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Falling Knife Or Should You Buy Now? [View article]
    The problem with CHK is simply this> On the left side of the ledger nothing is right and on the right side of the ledger, nothing is left. It comes down to simply this, it is not making any real money. So it has to sell assets. It needs higher oil and natural gas price to make money. Higher oil and natural gas prices will not help the economy. The weather is having an impact on the economy in that nature is crediting less then what man wants to debit, thus prices increase. We are really going to see that going forward. A good part of this country is suffering from a drought, a good part is suffering from cold, cold temperatures. A lot of people this year are going to be paying winter heating bills during summer and fall. CHK has to downsize and concentrate its production where it can make a profit. It's unprofitabe wells outnimber its profitable wells by better then 10 to 1.
    Feb 27 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Spooked By The Outlook For Chesapeake [View article]
    CHK is simply not making any money producing energy. Thus it has to sell assets to generate needed cash to pay a dividend and required payments on debt. CHK needs to fix it's bookkeeping errors. Also most of CHK leases consists of gas, so why not go after it. To go after oil and wait for higher gas price will fail when gas prices are higher and CHK can't produce because it has to drill first and find a way to hook it up. CHK needs to find a way to increase gas production when prices are higher and simply turn the wells off when low. Or find a way to store it. Right now CHK is simply forced to cut spending in order to stay afloat on its debt problem. To sell good quality oil leases and production like it did in Ellis and Rogers Counties in Oklahoma was stupid just to get some cash to meet obligations. To say one thing and do another kind of makes me wonder. Funny bookkeeping is not the real thing. So what oil rich section is CHK going to sell next?
    Feb 8 05:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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