The recent selloff in commodities (DBC) is not a correction, says Stan Druckenmiller, now on stage at Ira Sohn, but instead the end of the supercycle. Avoid commodity markets - Brazil (EWZ, BRF, BRL), South Africa (EZA, SZR), Canada (EWC, FXC). "Frankly, I'd short the aussie (FXA)." His largest equity holding? "I can't imagine a better position than Google (GOOG)" - selling for 16x earnings and no exposure to China. [View news story]
16x PE is for 2014 earnings and NO exposure to China is seen as a positive ?? Great, after all, they are only about 25% of the worlds population
LinkedIn (LNKD): Q1 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $324.7M (+72% Y/Y) beats by $7.6M. Expects Q2 revenue of $342M-$347M, below $359.2M consensus. Expects 2013 revenue of $1.43B-$1.46B, below $1.49B consensus. Shares -11.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Investors and response to analysts estimates vs Guidance is always strange at best - LNKD management always guides below actual. This Qtr was guided at 305 to 310 and they came in at 325 on Rev.
They just guided next Qtr at 342 to 347 - and everyone is disappointed because consensus from analysts is $359 - so what, if they perform based on past, they are really saying actual will be around $365 to $375.
Amazon.com Long-Term Earnings Model And Estimates [View article]
All you need to know Re: how manipulated this stock is-see headline below to set up for miss on Rev $, EPS and Q2 Guidance - but won't matter because its all about "margin improvement" - what BS, you put profit $ in the bank, not Margin %
Amazon investors focused on margins 7:05a ET April 25, 2013 (MarketWatch) Amazon investors focused on margins
Amazon.com Long-Term Earnings Model And Estimates [View article]
Paulo, Appreciate your efforts ,
All of your detailed assessments are correct and have been somewhat prescient in terms of AMZN reports and guidance. Problem is that the results of recommended trade are not positive.
Market makers and analysts (sometimes one in the same) only remarked on last qtr results and downward guidance about "look Amazon raised margins, portends great things for future !). CNBC commentator already prepped this report by saying that it will not be the Revenue or EPS, but if they have positive margin % improvements again. They will of course have another miniscule margin increase, will miss Revenue and guide down again - and the stock will probably go up !
Another great example below of what you have pointed out - no other company gets these bizarro world types of "upgrades"
Yesterday, Nomura raised its PT on Amazon to $315 from $300, albeit while respectively cutting its 2013 and 2014 EPS estimates to $1.67 and $3.44. The firm is now modeling higher D&A (heavily tied to AWS capex) and fulfillment expenses, but also higher revenue and gross margin.
Netflix (NFLX): Q1 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $1.02B (+17% Y/Y) in-line. Shares +17% AH. (PR) [View news story]
DMV Momentum should continue as they announced that latest Original content production released last Friday (Hemlock Grove) was watched more than House of Cards - and Arrested Development debuts next month as well.
Google (GOOG): Q1 EPS of $11.58 beats by $0.89. Revenue of $13.97B (+31% Y/Y) misses by $70M. Shares +3.2% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Can someone help suss out whether this new lower tax rate will be ongoing ??
Google (GOOG): Q1 EPS of $11.58 beats by $0.89. Revenue of $13.97B (+31% Y/Y) misses by $70M. Shares +3.2% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Rev. Missed EPS Beat is almost solely due to tax rate of 8% vs 18% prior qtr What's that about ?
Lululemon's Growth Story Remains Intact [View article]
43x EPS with only 8% Earnings growth now projected for 2013 = ridiculous. I fully believe the pants thing is being completely over exaggerated by management to take the bar way down due to declining comps. think about it-
They sold the supposed sheer pants for only 2.5 weeks Was only one model of their yoga pants They could easily fly more over to restock at maybe $1 a unit at most
And yet - they took down not only Q1 Revs and earnings, but Q2 and 3 and back half of year. What a complete joke
Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.3%) says it will hold a conference call at 5:00 pm EST during which it will make an announcement and make CEO Elon Musk available for a Q&A session. Musk is still dropping mysterious hints on Twitter about the upcoming news, saying it's "more important" than the Q1 profit the automaker turned and joking it will be the 2nd in a 5-part trilogy. (webcast) [View news story]
announcement is for bank supported finance program for lease to own with payments under $500 per month on lease for the S - and Tesla guarantees that residual value at end of lease is = or greater than MB Model S
Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.3%) says it will hold a conference call at 5:00 pm EST during which it will make an announcement and make CEO Elon Musk available for a Q&A session. Musk is still dropping mysterious hints on Twitter about the upcoming news, saying it's "more important" than the Q1 profit the automaker turned and joking it will be the 2nd in a 5-part trilogy. (webcast) [View news story]
THis whole pants issue is being exaggerated and used as an excuse to pull their numbers way down from where they were for Q1 and year
Only 17% of pants supposedly effected, Yet they pull Q1 Rev down $20-$25MM and Full Year down $45 to $50MM and earnings down Around $0.27c from $2.25 for year to $1.98 or so. Do the math, what a joke, they should be able to have these pants fully restocked in a month at most, yet Revenes in Q3 and Q4 will be effected ? - BS !
Is there a slight issue with these pants - Yes, but they saw their numbers were slowing and are making this the only headline - otherwise with sales trends as they are organically (maybe 10% comp sales) going forward, stock would have dropped $10 to $15 today.
It'sPants issue will be fully resolved in 6 weeks at most, and now they magically have reduced full year guidance by over 10% - what a joke !
Is there a slight pants issue that will effect things near term ? Yes, but not nearly to the extent that management is projecting.
They could fly over good replacement product in 4 weeks from today at most, meanwhile - you are crazy if you think they are eating all of the costs or paying for new product that does not meet standards. Also- it is only March 20th and the defective pants started selling March 1st so cannot be that many. On top of that, it is only one version of their yoga pants and only 17% of that model - yet they are taking Q1 and 2 Revenues down around $40MM to $50MM and full year EPS down over 10% !
This whole thing is just a very convenient excuse to take Revenue and earnings way down for remainder of year (ridiculous)- they will now have an easy beat for 2013. They saw organic comps trends not at projections for 2013 - and were smart to make this small issue the major headline to take down projections for the next 12 Months !! That's just absurd and does not compute when you do the math.
Very smart by management- and they will all be heroes now that things "turn around due to great management of this very difficult issue" - stock should have been down $10 to $20 today without this smart, but very exaggerated story that now colors all analysis.
I worked in this type industry , real story should have been - Hey, on our call, we would like to let everyone know that we had a minor issue with a small % of one of our yoga pants models for a few weeks of sales in March only, we addressed it with the manufacturer, split costs to fly over new replacement product and will be accepting returns on these products that were purchased over last 3 weeks, effect is $0.05c to $0.10c for Q1 only. Instead they were smart enough to go with their current BS story about the issue's effects on all of 2013.
The Bank Of Amazon: How Long Will Suppliers, Sellers And Customers Keep The Doors Open? [View article]
I have sold thru Amazon
They give you a menu to choose from - pay you within 30 days and you sign up for a "support marketing program" that requires you to give them anywhere from 2 to 10 Pts of incremental margin discount.
Or get paid in 60 to 90 days with less and less "margin support" required on payment terms.
Google and E Bay have a big oppty to take these vendors away - IF they can build to scale and get the eyeballs.
Remember, all that it takes is for Bezos to move a few minor items around like this to goose GM% by maybe .5% and the media will lap up his new story about how although Rev growth is declining, they are now focused on Margin to "provide value in the future" blah - blah - blah
Bottom line, they will miss Revenue (again!) - guide revenue lower (again !) - and the stock will go up just like last qtr. as this same story above is what will be repeated by analysts and media (again!)
Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
Big Problem is that WS analysts and media will print whatever story/spin Bezos comes out with after each report - loook at last earnings, missed Rev est by $1BB and guided this qtr lower by $1BB vs consensus at the time.
So, what was reported ? - "Amazon grows margins - portends great things for future as they grow revenues". Bezos has about 5 different ways to move $ around and tell the story he wants, which is then repeated by WS and media ad nauseum. They will miss Revenue for sure this qtr. - and the stock will go up bcus the 3P growth and effect on reported GM% is what will be reported.
The recent selloff in commodities (DBC) is not a correction, says Stan Druckenmiller, now on stage at Ira Sohn, but instead the end of the supercycle. Avoid commodity markets - Brazil (EWZ, BRF, BRL), South Africa (EZA, SZR), Canada (EWC, FXC). "Frankly, I'd short the aussie (FXA)." His largest equity holding? "I can't imagine a better position than Google (GOOG)" - selling for 16x earnings and no exposure to China. [View news story]
and NO exposure to China is seen as a positive ??
Great, after all, they are only about 25% of the worlds population
LinkedIn (LNKD): Q1 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $324.7M (+72% Y/Y) beats by $7.6M. Expects Q2 revenue of $342M-$347M, below $359.2M consensus. Expects 2013 revenue of $1.43B-$1.46B, below $1.49B consensus. Shares -11.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
They just guided next Qtr at 342 to 347 - and everyone is disappointed because consensus from analysts is $359 - so what, if they perform based on past, they are really saying actual will be around $365 to $375.
Amazon.com Long-Term Earnings Model And Estimates [View article]
Amazon investors focused on margins
7:05a ET April 25, 2013 (MarketWatch)
Amazon investors focused on margins
By Rex Crum, MarketWatch
Amazon.com Long-Term Earnings Model And Estimates [View article]
All of your detailed assessments are correct and have been somewhat prescient in terms of AMZN reports and guidance. Problem is that the results of recommended trade are not positive.
Market makers and analysts (sometimes one in the same) only remarked on last qtr results and downward guidance about "look Amazon raised margins, portends great things for future !).
CNBC commentator already prepped this report by saying that it will not be the Revenue or EPS, but if they have positive margin % improvements again. They will of course have another miniscule margin increase, will miss Revenue and guide down again - and the stock will probably go up !
Another great example below of what you have pointed out - no other company gets these bizarro world types of "upgrades"
Yesterday, Nomura raised its PT on Amazon to $315 from $300, albeit while respectively cutting its 2013 and 2014 EPS estimates to $1.67 and $3.44. The firm is now modeling higher D&A (heavily tied to AWS capex) and fulfillment expenses, but also higher revenue and gross margin.
Netflix (NFLX): Q1 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $1.02B (+17% Y/Y) in-line. Shares +17% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Momentum should continue as they announced that latest Original content production released last Friday (Hemlock Grove) was watched more than House of Cards - and Arrested Development debuts next month as well.
$300 here we come !
Google (GOOG): Q1 EPS of $11.58 beats by $0.89. Revenue of $13.97B (+31% Y/Y) misses by $70M. Shares +3.2% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Or was this a one off and non-recurring ?
Google (GOOG): Q1 EPS of $11.58 beats by $0.89. Revenue of $13.97B (+31% Y/Y) misses by $70M. Shares +3.2% AH. CC at 4:30PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
EPS Beat is almost solely due to tax rate of 8% vs 18% prior qtr
What's that about ?
Lululemon's Growth Story Remains Intact [View article]
They sold the supposed sheer pants for only 2.5 weeks
Was only one model of their yoga pants
They could easily fly more over to restock at maybe $1 a unit at most
And yet - they took down not only Q1 Revs and earnings, but Q2 and 3 and back half of year. What a complete joke
Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.3%) says it will hold a conference call at 5:00 pm EST during which it will make an announcement and make CEO Elon Musk available for a Q&A session. Musk is still dropping mysterious hints on Twitter about the upcoming news, saying it's "more important" than the Q1 profit the automaker turned and joking it will be the 2nd in a 5-part trilogy. (webcast) [View news story]
Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.3%) says it will hold a conference call at 5:00 pm EST during which it will make an announcement and make CEO Elon Musk available for a Q&A session. Musk is still dropping mysterious hints on Twitter about the upcoming news, saying it's "more important" than the Q1 profit the automaker turned and joking it will be the 2nd in a 5-part trilogy. (webcast) [View news story]
Lululemon: A Scandalous Juggernaut [View article]
Only 17% of pants supposedly effected, Yet they pull Q1 Rev down $20-$25MM and Full Year down $45 to $50MM and earnings down Around $0.27c from $2.25 for year to $1.98 or so. Do the math, what a joke, they should be able to have these pants fully restocked in a month at most, yet Revenes in Q3 and Q4 will be effected ? - BS !
Is there a slight issue with these pants - Yes, but they saw their numbers were slowing and are making this the only headline - otherwise with sales trends as they are organically (maybe 10% comp sales) going forward, stock would have dropped $10 to $15 today.
It'sPants issue will be fully resolved in 6 weeks at most, and now they magically have reduced full year guidance by over 10% - what a joke !
Lululemon Athletica CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Yes, but not nearly to the extent that management is projecting.
They could fly over good replacement product in 4 weeks from today at most, meanwhile - you are crazy if you think they are eating all of the costs or paying for new product that does not meet standards.
Also- it is only March 20th and the defective pants started selling March 1st so cannot be that many.
On top of that, it is only one version of their yoga pants and only 17% of that model - yet they are taking Q1 and 2 Revenues down around $40MM to $50MM and full year EPS down over 10% !
This whole thing is just a very convenient excuse to take Revenue and earnings way down for remainder of year (ridiculous)- they will now have an easy beat for 2013. They saw organic comps trends not at projections for 2013 - and were smart to make this small issue the major headline to take down projections for the next 12 Months !!
That's just absurd and does not compute when you do the math.
Very smart by management- and they will all be heroes now that things "turn around due to great management of this very difficult issue" - stock should have been down $10 to $20 today without this smart, but very exaggerated story that now colors all analysis.
I worked in this type industry , real story should have been - Hey, on our call, we would like to let everyone know that we had a minor issue with a small % of one of our yoga pants models for a few weeks of sales in March only, we addressed it with the manufacturer, split costs to fly over new replacement product and will be accepting returns on these products that were purchased over last 3 weeks, effect is $0.05c to $0.10c for Q1 only. Instead they were smart enough to go with their current BS story about the issue's effects on all of 2013.
The Bank Of Amazon: How Long Will Suppliers, Sellers And Customers Keep The Doors Open? [View article]
They give you a menu to choose from - pay you within 30 days and you sign up for a "support marketing program" that requires you to give them anywhere from 2 to 10 Pts of incremental margin discount.
Or get paid in 60 to 90 days with less and less "margin support" required on payment terms.
Google and E Bay have a big oppty to take these vendors away - IF they can build to scale and get the eyeballs.
Something That Amazon Did Well [View article]
Remember, all that it takes is for Bezos to move a few minor items around like this to goose GM% by maybe .5% and the media will lap up his new story about how although Rev growth is declining, they are now focused on Margin to "provide value in the future" blah - blah - blah
Bottom line, they will miss Revenue (again!) - guide revenue lower (again !) - and the stock will go up just like last qtr. as this same story above is what will be repeated by analysts and media (again!)
Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
So, what was reported ? - "Amazon grows margins - portends great things for future as they grow revenues". Bezos has about 5 different ways to move $ around and tell the story he wants, which is then repeated by WS and media ad nauseum. They will miss Revenue for sure this qtr. - and the stock will go up bcus the 3P growth and effect on reported GM% is what will be reported.