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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • No One Wants To Hear Anything Good About Amazon, But... [View article]
    Bad Comps
    Amzn is NOT Twtr
    been around 10x as long

    bottomline is
    Growth slowing
    Loses increasing

    20% growth in a vacuum sounds good - Not when you were growing at 40% 3 years ago. growth should slow to 14-15% next year with more losses coming
    Oct 25, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon lower after earnings miss, Q4 operating loss guide [View news story]
    incredible how analysts keep pumping up future years estimates - until they actually happen, and then they take down after Q4 and coming FY guidance- but stock never gets hit

    Check this out
    Actuals
    2012 +.09c
    2013 (.59c)
    2014 ($1.00 to $2.00) loss range
    Analysts current estimates
    2015 $1.91
    2016 $4.90

    What a joke that the analysts are able to get away with this every year as they pump the story with bezos on all the future profits that NEVER materialize
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    jstratt- must be nice to live life with such low expectations !
    >)
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon lower after earnings miss, Q4 operating loss guide [View news story]
    equates to guidance of range of loss of -1.15 to profit of $0.90c or so
    = mid range of flat to small loss or so for Q4 = horrible year overall
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    And... the share count and commensurate losses per share will increase each qtr. as they pay no employee more than $165,000 - bcus they tell them they will all be millionaires soon and should want their Comp in Shares rather than salary $
    - will only accelerate the decline as good tech people will jump as their "millionaire options" become worth zero if they were hired in last 18-24 months.
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com misses by $0.21, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Look at all the crap bullet points they list as accomplishments- there is no more core business here. Should go down $40 to $50 tomorrow. If they ever raise prices in order to actually make a profit- their sales will decrease. If their sales ever decrease , the fairy tale ends and stock crashes down to $30 to $50.

    Can't ever get off this BS merry go round carnival barker story that bezos created
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Prime Fee Hike: Calming Example Of Costco [View article]
    Not a relevant comparison at all
    - Costco charges only $55 for membership and raised it only $5 (10%) last year, this cost relative to dollars spent and saved is minimal which is why people see value and sign up over and over again.Costco has by far the highest income demographic of any retailer in USA - so these are not dumb people- they do the math. Churn is very very low.

    - Amazon charges much more for the 'privilege' of receiving free shipping - which is pretty much becoming standard across web retail. Their product holds little real value which is why they give prime away free to college students and a bunch of other groups (they of course never disclose how many of their prime memberships are non-paid), if they were to raise to $120 (50% raise) or similar I would wager that "paid" memberships would easily get cut 30 to 40%. Churn for Amazon membership is very, very high as people quit when they start to get billed after signing up for "free trial". Costco would NEVER give away free memberships - Why?, because they don't need to because membership for them has value.

    Amazon wants to sell this "membership value" story (lie) because their growth rate is declining and competition is getting better- they just changed the way they record e-book revenues to full price vs backing out revenue that automatically goes to publishers - if they had not done this last qtr- revenue growth would have been around 15% vs 20% and stock would be back at $200.
    Feb 12, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung And LG Could Eat Whirlpool's Lunch As The IoT Explodes In Home Appliances [View article]
    Samesung has lots of "Plans" for where they will be next- most of which are currently falling apart, except for selling the most low cost phones that make little to no money.

    Great heart of market large scale manufacturer and product imitator, but their days of high margins are over due to Apple dominating high end and many low end competitors coming after them.
    Jan 27, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Analysts Say, IBM Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    FCF is declining qtr to qtr and from one qtr to the next- consistently for awhile now

    ur correct - services is about 50%, I neglected to include software which is what gets you to 85%

    They sold lenovo today, so no more HW to sell off.
    Amazon AWS is dominant in small business space for cloud- and MS just reported great results in enterprise cloud. IBM is way behind - will have to invest a lot to catch up, which they are doing, but is a risk- so stock is down.

    Not sure what your point is ?, overall- their results have been declining or flat for 7 quarters now on all the important measures that are GAAP and not manipulated. And so the stock is down, pretty simple really.
    Jan 23, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Analysts Say, IBM Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    Momintn - FCF and net earnings (GAAP) are both declining- so stock goes down (not complicated)

    Todd- 85% of revenues are already in services and they have sold off all the legacy hardware business with exception of servers which they are looking to fire sale to Lenovo.
    The transition has already happened - they are where they are as a "services" enterprise.

    Cloud is dominated by Amazon and CRM - both of which don't make a profit and are constantly lowering price - not a great pool to jump in - look at whats happened to RAX
    Jan 22, 2014. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Analysts Say, IBM Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    Todd,

    Their stated earnings that exceeded guidance including tax effects etc. - were Non GAAP
    GAAP earnings were below guidance and consensus - tax treatments and debt to buyback back shares were the majority of the difference between the two.

    if FCF is what you value - FCF for year was guided to $18BB and came in at $15BB
    Big miss regardless of how you "account" for value
    Jan 22, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Analysts Say, IBM Is A Strong Buy [View article]
    Earnings are all just financial manipulation
    you can see below from earnings release that EPS rise is only due to Tax treatment that lowered taxes by about 65% vs prior period- Revenue and real earnings are all down

    "Pre-tax income decreased 11 percent to $7.0 billion; total operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax income decreased 8 percent to $7.4 billion. Pre-tax margin was 25.1 percent, down 1.6 points; total operating (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin was 26.8 percent, down 0.8 points.

    IBMs tax rate was 11.2 percent, down 14.3 points year over year; total operating (non-GAAP) tax rate was 11.0 percent, down 13.5 points compared to the year-ago period, due to discrete period tax items, including benefits from tax audit settlements."
    Jan 21, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heard during Best Buy's holiday sales conference call [View news story]
    Amazon is ruining some pretty good companies to have around
    unfair playing field when for some unknown reason they are not supposed to report any profits

    how do you compete against that ?
    Jan 16, 2014. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More On Sears' Real Estate [View article]
    They are not building any new malls because of lack of demand- Mall traffic down 15% latest Q4- and down even more in downscale malls where Sears thrives.

    Have been hearing this fairytale of unlocking the RE value for years, This is a declining asset - there is no one who wants to take over or own 100+ or more Sears locations unless at fire sale values.
    Jan 9, 2014. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: A Turnaround Is Unlikely [View article]
    Mall traffic down 15% in Q4 - and down even more in downscale malls- because of this, Sears Mall locations are only worth fire sale values. And they already sold 10 or 12 of their best premium locations. Williams Sonoma just announced they will not be opening any more retail locations and will focus online growth - you will hear more of this from premium retailers.

    Should be at $30 or less by next qtr report
    Said they will lose over $7 per share next year
    Jan 9, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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