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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • Amazon.com, The 10-Q Surprises [View article]

    Thanks for digging in Paulo

    Can you comment as to whether the write ups on the fictional income related to Livingsocial will continue or was this a one time anomaly ?

    I am trying to figure out if they will pull same thing next quarter
    Apr 27 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are smartphone owners beginning to suffer from app fatigue? App marketing firm Fiksu estimates iPhone app downloads fell 30% M/M in March, returning to pre-iPhone 4S levels. Assuming the figures are accurate, the many firms betting their futures on mobile apps need to hope the slowdown is just a short-term aberration from the torrid growth the market has been posting. App downloads made up a big chunk of Apple's (AAPL) $1.9B FQ2 iTunes revenue.  [View news story]
    Unbeleivable how many rumours and BS metrics are put out there on "Apple Decline" and "Apples in Trouble" on an almost daily basis- it's all just bloggers and sites in search of an audience

    Who the hell is Fiksu and how have they ever had any relevance to measuring Apples business ?

    Child please
    Apr 27 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Beats Big On Top And Bottom [View article]
    Check this out
    Accounting line on equity investments swing of $89MM accounted for over 2/3rds of the $130MM in Net - or in other words, they really made $0.09c without this
    http://bit.ly/KeQeyN
    Apr 26 06:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Amazon's Q1: Operating income of $192M well above guidance, but down 40% Y/Y. Company expects Q2 operating income of -$260M to $40M. North American sales +36% Y/Y (+37% in Q4), international +31% (even with Q4). Merchandise sales +43%, media +19%. Cost of sales growth (+32%) slightly below revenue growth, but fulfillment expense growth (+51%) well above. $960M in shares repurchased. No specifics on Kindle sales. AMZN +10.2% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Check this out- when margins and profit are so thin and nebulous- a simple equity investment line of $89MM accounts for over 2/3rds of the $130MM Net Income - or in other words, they would have reported $0.09c in EPS. An $89MM accounting trick saves the day for $13.2BB in revenue - what a joke

    http://bit.ly/KeQeyN
    Apr 26 05:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My China Syndrome With Apple [View article]
    Well,

    We will just have to see you in January when you are wrong on each of these points.

    "Search Volume" as a metric is far too nebulous to have meaning

    iPads in Hong Kong is not ipads in China

    One of the reasons Apple is not $700 is all the negative press regardless of results because it gets ratings and in your case hits. Results will resolve all this by next January report and I would love to see you circle back then and look back to all your current takes on Apple.


    Meanwhile, no further comments or hits on your negative Apple articles - No one even reads your others
    Apr 26 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My China Syndrome With Apple [View article]
    Drives me nuts that yourself and other analysts are already attempting to use the slowdown in FY Q4 on iPhones to say that spells trouble for the company or the stock - Yes, sales will slow before the HUGE ramp up to iPhone 5 just as with 4 to 4S. This is normal for all product cycle refreshes - cars, TV's Pc's etc. = So what ??

    If you view the calendar year quarterly growth and trends in aggregate on iPhones instead of FY - they simply astound and will continue to do so. PERIOD

    Also, they did nots sell many iPads in China because they only have the 2's available as they cannot make enough of the new ones to open China yet. Mac's will explode with the refresh in June and iPods are of little consequence either way.

    Their only challenges on Iphone 5 and Ipads is if they will be able to make enough of them - not if they can sell them. What if they open China Telecom for Chinese New Year 2013 ? = Lookout

    I really hope you come back and write about the "disappointing" phone sales for the October earnings report - those postponed purchases only push into FY Q1 and then yourself and others will write next January report how you are "shocked and astounded" by the increase in FY Q1 2013 with the new phone. = Whatever

    Honestly, I think most of you simply write negative on Apple because you know it gets you more hits than anything else you write
    Apr 26 05:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX): Q1 EPS of -$0.08 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $870M (+28% Y/Y) in-line. Shares -14.3% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Reed the Carnival Barker at work selling magic elixir again

    "Well, we would be profitable if not for all this exciting and continuous Intl. Expansion" - and don't look behind the curtains at the flat Domestic revenue and profit fcst we just gave for next qtr. even though our content costs this quarter are up 300% vs 2011 and 1700% vs 2010

    This story has been the same for 2 years now and is really about a simply unsustainable model of ballooning content costs coming home to roost off the balance sheet through amortization while domestic subs and revenue hit a ceiling at the same time.


    Consider these trends in $M Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
    Revenue $ 494 $719 $870
    Amortized Streaming Costs $19 $86 $340
    Net Income $32 $60 ($5)

    Nuff said
    You are crazy to invest in this fairy tale being spun by Reed et al
    Apr 23 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Earnings Preview: Big Trouble Ahead? [View article]
    Despite all the obfuscation by management to have you focus on price changes debacle and the Intl growth story continuing - you only really need to know the below along with the fact that they just guided basically flat to next Qtr on Rev. and Profit.

    You can see Amort Streaming costs went up 1690% vs Q1 2010 while Revenue only went up 76%, Net Income went from 32M to -5M


    NETFLIX IN $MM 2010 2011 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
    REVENUE 2162 3204 494 719 870

    AMORT STREAMING 158 700 19 86 340

    NET INCOME 161 226 32 60 -5
    Apr 23 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Qualcomm's FQ2: Baseband chip shipments rose 29% Y/Y to 152M, but company expects only 144M-152M in FQ3 (could share loss be an issue?). Collected royalties on 239M-243M devices at an average price of $211-$217 ($212-$218 in FQ1). This leads Qualcomm to hike its FY12 ASP guidance to $207-$217 from $204-$216. R&D expenses rose 30% Y/Y to $824M. Ended FQ2 with $26.6B in cash and investments ($22B prior). QCOM -6.6% AH. (PR) (CC webcast)  [View news story]
    Are these Chips used in Apple products ??
    Apr 18 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel [View article]
    I like the authors enthusiasm, but there is no way they will hit those phone numbers - and phones are still what drives this monster..

    There was no accounting for or mention of the differential in weeks
    Q1 had 14 weeks of sales including thanksgiving and christmas as well as the extra (14th) week between christmas and new years which normally falls in Q2 and will not this next report.

    Just to comp apples to apples (so to speak)

    Q1 reported 37MM phones across 14 weeks which is roughly 2.65MM per week.The author is forecasting 39MM phones across 13 weeks or roughly 3MM phones per week which would be over a 13% increase in weekly sales vs last quarter !!

    - Sorry, that just ain't happening and this author loses a lot of credibility in not recognizing or explaining how/why he sees this happening. Addition of smaller China carriers will not accomplish this when domestic and all other international should significantly lag last quarter 4s Intro numbers.

    I am very long AAPL, and am not worried about this qtr. report which should be very good, more worried about guidance and results for next 2 quarters which most likely will not have the new iPhone included in sales numbers and people will wait again for Q4 iPhone 5 release and put off purchases and upgrades.
    Apr 16 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Analyst Views And Redefining Common Sense [View article]
    Man,

    Isn't everybody tired of the whole "Nothing Lasts Forever" argument which is really lazy and lacks any substantive basis other than the corollary of "What goes up, must come down eventually" - these are not even arguments, but rather obvious statements on the nature of the universe and stocks place poised against these laws of nature.

    Worst part is these are both an argument with no other side to argue against - I do not know of anyone on the Bull side that says Apple will go up forever or even in a straight line for remainder of year.

    Yes, there will probably be a pause and slide back as Q3 and possibly Q4 will include soft iPhone sales as everyone waits for the iPhone 5 release. But anyone who thinks the carriers are going to say no to Apple on subsidizing the 5 at same levels as the previous models is smoking some really good stuff.
    Apr 10 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Underestimating Apple: Analyst Consensus Plays Catch-Up [View article]
    How do you invest in Samsung ?
    Apr 2 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investing: Resisting The Urge To Get Rich Quick [View article]
    Good perspective on how to approach money and investing philosophically and materially.

    Do you have a top 5 or top 10 Dividend stock recommends to hold for the next 10 or so years ?

    I have done very well riding Apple up and Nflx down on options, but now want to take most risk off my mix and not be as aggressive.
    Mar 26 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Up Again: More 'Irrational Exuberance?' [View article]
    Have always agreed with your LT Analysis on NFLX Rocco - and have made a lot of money in 2011 on the steep ride down.

    Would not touch this stock until late 2012 when everything finally comes out in the wash - way too much daily Momo up and down for no apparent reason.

    Would not bet against next 2 qtrs reports - Reed et al have done a great job of diminishing expectations near term and not having to explain LT turn around to profitability due to scripted calls and the ethereal "International expansion" storyline.

    Last qtr - fcst $0.55 reported $0.73
    Next 3 quarters -0.27 -0.17 and -.02

    I believe they will report very slight profits next 3 quarters and spin the script as hard as they can for another 12 months

    I managed budgets to a P&L for many years - NFLX is pulling off a classic trick to exceed the above ridiculous expectations - They have budgeted huge sums for marketing both Domestic and Intl. and explained that this is necessary, they will then only spend about 60% of it and exceed the analyst forecast and their own guidance next few quarters. They already did this to some extent last quarter.

    Thoughts ?
    Mar 21 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When The Music Stops [View article]
    Anyone writing articles on apple and utilizing the disclaimer " it can't go up forever" - please, please just stop.

    Makes any points thereafter completely meaningless and inane
    Silly way to discredit the bullish argument short or long term because guess what ?? - The author says that someday he or she will be right and someday it will move down ---eventually


    Really ? - whatever

    That is not an argument for action bull or bear but a statement about the universe we exist in
    Mar 13 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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