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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel [View article]
    I like the authors enthusiasm, but there is no way they will hit those phone numbers - and phones are still what drives this monster..

    There was no accounting for or mention of the differential in weeks
    Q1 had 14 weeks of sales including thanksgiving and christmas as well as the extra (14th) week between christmas and new years which normally falls in Q2 and will not this next report.

    Just to comp apples to apples (so to speak)

    Q1 reported 37MM phones across 14 weeks which is roughly 2.65MM per week.The author is forecasting 39MM phones across 13 weeks or roughly 3MM phones per week which would be over a 13% increase in weekly sales vs last quarter !!

    - Sorry, that just ain't happening and this author loses a lot of credibility in not recognizing or explaining how/why he sees this happening. Addition of smaller China carriers will not accomplish this when domestic and all other international should significantly lag last quarter 4s Intro numbers.

    I am very long AAPL, and am not worried about this qtr. report which should be very good, more worried about guidance and results for next 2 quarters which most likely will not have the new iPhone included in sales numbers and people will wait again for Q4 iPhone 5 release and put off purchases and upgrades.
    Apr 16, 2012. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Analyst Views And Redefining Common Sense [View article]
    Man,

    Isn't everybody tired of the whole "Nothing Lasts Forever" argument which is really lazy and lacks any substantive basis other than the corollary of "What goes up, must come down eventually" - these are not even arguments, but rather obvious statements on the nature of the universe and stocks place poised against these laws of nature.

    Worst part is these are both an argument with no other side to argue against - I do not know of anyone on the Bull side that says Apple will go up forever or even in a straight line for remainder of year.

    Yes, there will probably be a pause and slide back as Q3 and possibly Q4 will include soft iPhone sales as everyone waits for the iPhone 5 release. But anyone who thinks the carriers are going to say no to Apple on subsidizing the 5 at same levels as the previous models is smoking some really good stuff.
    Apr 10, 2012. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Underestimating Apple: Analyst Consensus Plays Catch-Up [View article]
    How do you invest in Samsung ?
    Apr 2, 2012. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investing: Resisting The Urge To Get Rich Quick [View article]
    Good perspective on how to approach money and investing philosophically and materially.

    Do you have a top 5 or top 10 Dividend stock recommends to hold for the next 10 or so years ?

    I have done very well riding Apple up and Nflx down on options, but now want to take most risk off my mix and not be as aggressive.
    Mar 26, 2012. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Up Again: More 'Irrational Exuberance?' [View article]
    Have always agreed with your LT Analysis on NFLX Rocco - and have made a lot of money in 2011 on the steep ride down.

    Would not touch this stock until late 2012 when everything finally comes out in the wash - way too much daily Momo up and down for no apparent reason.

    Would not bet against next 2 qtrs reports - Reed et al have done a great job of diminishing expectations near term and not having to explain LT turn around to profitability due to scripted calls and the ethereal "International expansion" storyline.

    Last qtr - fcst $0.55 reported $0.73
    Next 3 quarters -0.27 -0.17 and -.02

    I believe they will report very slight profits next 3 quarters and spin the script as hard as they can for another 12 months

    I managed budgets to a P&L for many years - NFLX is pulling off a classic trick to exceed the above ridiculous expectations - They have budgeted huge sums for marketing both Domestic and Intl. and explained that this is necessary, they will then only spend about 60% of it and exceed the analyst forecast and their own guidance next few quarters. They already did this to some extent last quarter.

    Thoughts ?
    Mar 21, 2012. 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When The Music Stops [View article]
    Anyone writing articles on apple and utilizing the disclaimer " it can't go up forever" - please, please just stop.

    Makes any points thereafter completely meaningless and inane
    Silly way to discredit the bullish argument short or long term because guess what ?? - The author says that someday he or she will be right and someday it will move down ---eventually


    Really ? - whatever

    That is not an argument for action bull or bear but a statement about the universe we exist in
    Mar 13, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turn SodaStream's Earnings Pain Into A Gain [View article]
    They don't turn product fast enough through executing what they have with current customers. All their growth and guidance is distribution to new doors with new customers. This will hit a wall by about this time next year. Pipeline fill is not a strategy.

    Q4 should have been much better along with next qtr guidance considering they were in Costco and Target
    Mar 12, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Coca-Cola, Buy This Stock Instead [View article]
    This stock will falter going forward
    I was a believer through last year - but latest results were very disappointing.

    I managed national retail accounts for large companies - to gain approval in Costco and Target for holiday and not absolutely move the needle past red is extremely worrisome and means product did not turn at rates expected by these customers. These customers only give you one or at most 2 shots at hitting a double or triple at minimum- they expect home runs and don't do singles hitters.

    Soda filled the pipeline for distribution last quarter but did not turn it - or they would have had a better report and better guidance - PERIOD

    I predict to $20 or below this time next year
    Mar 12, 2012. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple To Unveil An 8GB iPad 2 With The iPad 3 [View article]
    They will grow share and margin just like they managed iPhone iterations to good - better - best pricing segmentation while growing margin through efficiencies of scalability with utilization of consistent platforms across each device

    8GB makes sense - the cloud allows you to store everything off device and download when needed
    Mar 1, 2012. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even Netflix Knows RIM Is Finished [View article]
    Pretty Elementary - mobile is dominating vs pc
    And touch technology is huge part of mobile smart revolution
    Apps are all about touch technology proliferation as mobile and smart explodes
    RIMM and Basille totally missed the boat and bet against this quarter afte quarter which is why they are so far behind and IMO will continue to be so
    Feb 27, 2012. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Contract Obligations Mountain [View article]
    Great analysis on the fundamentals and trend lines

    Here's the problem - you do not want to get short this stock until Q3 or 4......... Because Reed and Co. Have already diminished the expectations for next 2 qtrs to expect a huge loss- and guess what
    A. They will report only minor losses and exceed expectations
    B. they will be able to spin Intl. expansion story a little longer
    C. If you look at their fcst "marketing expenditures" -they are sandbagging big time.

    I was in business and managed budgets against fcst many times - oldest trick in book to exceed target is to place a lot of money in marketing budget fcst - and then only spend half to exceed the bottom line targets. They did this latest quarter and will get away with it maybe 2 more quarters.

    All that said, I completely agree that Nflx is broken model and the assessments from Rocco P and Mr Maurer have been spot on for 12 months now and have all been coming true as forecasted -
    - Reduced to flat domestic sub growth
    - expanding streaming content cost and net obligations exceeding ability to pay from a flattened revenue line
    - disappointing sub sign ups in Intl.

    Unfortunately, reed got ahead of this inevitable story and is playing the game of , "Well I just want to say how proud I am that in our latest qtr. we were able to control costs and lost less money than we and most people thought we would and here is how I see us on the road to recovery" - this will work in concert with his shills like Whitney Tilson pumping up the story next 2 reports. Chickens will come home to roost when he has to talk about Q4 and 2013 plans - which he may still avoid with the scripted BS conf calls
    Feb 16, 2012. 11:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar May Gain From A Coming Short Squeeze [View article]
    blew out earnings and guidance
    let the squeeze begin !

    Coinstar, Inc. Announces 2011 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
    4:01p ET February 6, 2012 (PR NewsWire)
    Coinstar, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSTR) today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2011.

    "Our strong finish in the fourth quarter capped a great year for Coinstar, including revenue over $1.8 billion, diluted EPS of $3.61 per share and free cash flow over $227 million," said Paul Davis, chief executive officer of Coinstar, Inc. "The strength of our core businesses provides a solid foundation that enables us to focus on key growth initiatives in 2012, including our joint venture with Verizon that was announced earlier today. We are delighted to be partnering with Verizon to offer consumers affordable entertainment in both physical and streaming formats and look forward to launching our service in the second half of the year."

    Davis continued, "We also are very pleased to announce the acquisition of the assets of NCR's DVD business and the opportunity to work with NCR as we develop our portfolio of innovative, self-service concepts."

    The acquisition is subject to Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvement Act (HSR) review. Assuming HSR approval, the company expects the transaction to close no later than the third quarter of 2012.

    Financial highlights for the 2011 fourth quarter and full year included:


    2011 Fourth Quarter 2011 Full Year
    Revenue $ 520.5 million $ 1,845.4 million
    Operating income $ 54.7 million $ 209.9 million
    Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations (See Appendix A) $ 100.4 million $ 373.0 million
    Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations $ 1.00 $ 3.61
    Net cash flows from operating activities from continuing operations $ 144.9 million $ 406.5 million
    Free cash flow from continuing operations (See Appendix A) $ 100.4 million $ 227.3 million

    "Our results underscore our ability to grow our core businesses profitably and generate substantial free cash flow at the same time," said J. Scott Di Valerio, chief financial officer of Coinstar, Inc. "We are very pleased with the operational performance throughout the organization in 2011 and will continue to focus on the processes that drive success. Moving forward we are confident in our ability to execute enabling us to generate positive cash flows even as we fund our organic growth and strategic initiatives."

    Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2011 increased 33.2% to $520.5 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2010, driven primarily by Redbox revenue growth of 39.5% to $445.6 million primarily reflecting new kiosk installations, strong performance of new release titles, and consumer acceptance of the price increase implemented October 31, 2011. Coin revenue grew 4.8% to $74.4 million, reflecting growth in same store sales.

    Operating income for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $54.7 million, which resulted in an operating margin of 10.5%, compared with operating income of $43.2 million and an operating margin of 11.0% in the fourth quarter of 2010.

    Income from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $31.5 million, or diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.00, an increase in diluted earnings per share of 47.1% compared with $22.4 million, or $0.68 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2010.

    For the 2011 full year revenue was $1,845.4 million, an increase of 28.5% compared with 2010. Operating income for 2011 was $209.9 million, which resulted in an operating margin of 11.4%, compared with operating income of $143.2 million and an operating margin of 10.0% in 2010. Income from continuing operations for 2011 was $115.0 million, or diluted earnings per share of $3.61, an increase in diluted earnings per share of 77.8% compared with income from continuing operations of $65.9 million, or $2.03 per share, in 2010.

    Net cash flows from operating activities from continuing operations in the fourth quarter of 2011 was $144.9 million, compared with $87.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. Cash paid for capital expenditures for continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $44.5 million, compared with $38.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. Free cash flow from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $100.4 million, compared with $48.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2010.

    Guidance

    Coinstar's guidance includes financial measures related to core and non-core activities. The core financial measures are non-GAAP financial measures as they exclude certain items related to non-core activities. Definitions of these terms are provided in Appendix A.

    For the 2012 full year, Coinstar management expects:

    Consolidated revenue between $2.075 billion and $2.250 billion;

    Core adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations between $425 million and $460 million;

    Core EPS between $3.80 and $4.30 on a fully diluted basis; and

    Free cash flow from continuing operations between $120 million and $145 million.

    For the 2012 first quarter, Coinstar management expects:

    Consolidated revenue between $530 million and $555 million;

    Core adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations between $94 million and $104 million; and

    Core EPS between $0.76 and $0.91 on a fully diluted basis.
    Feb 6, 2012. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Apple Go From Here? [View article]
    I don't see a new iteration of apple TV (A box) coming

    The Mac was the first to take away the box and have a single aesthetically beautiful machine with an equally compelling interface and iOS.

    No one wants the stupid box - everyone just wants to hang a TV on a wall, turn it on and start telling it what to do in the most intuitive and effective manner.- Just like when you plug in a new Mac.

    That will be an Apple TV I think, otherwise no big bang, which Apple is known for.

    Content is a whole nother can or worms, but will play out the same whether you access it through a box or a TV from Apple. So why have a box ?
    Feb 3, 2012. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Misses: Q4 Sales Up 35%, Net Income Down 58% [View article]
    Growth at what price ?

    What happens to 1% margins when they have to start charging sales tax of 7 - 10%
    Jan 31, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN) Q4 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $17.43B (+35% Y/Y) misses by $780M. Expects Q1 revenue of $12B-$13.4B, largely below $13.4B consensus. Expects operating income of -$200M to $100M. Shares -8.5% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Most states and even Feds are looking at legislation to have sales tax charged at transaction by Amazon - will be huge hit to their already miniscule margins and/or to their value proposition vs. brick & mortar
    Jan 31, 2012. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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