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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • More on Amazon's Q4: North American sales +37% Y/Y (44% in Q3). International sales +31% (44% in Q3). Merchandise sales +48%, media sales +15%. Operating cash flow was $4.27B ($3.48B in year-ago period). Kindle device unit sales +177% Y/Y. (no specifics on Kindle Fire) Operating margin was 1.4%, down from 3.8% in year-ago period. AMZN -8.1% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Consumers check the prices mostly to see the gap vs. paying state sales tax as a trade off to wait to have it delivered.

    Most states and even Feds are looking at legislation to have sales tax charged at transaction by Amazon - will be huge hit to their already miniscule margins and/or to their value proposition vs. brick & mortar

    They've had "Huge potential returns" for 10 years now
    what's missing is the actual returns
    Jan 31, 2012. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    Milkweeds comment explains all -
    "they did less worse than I expected"

    Reed and management have been able to sell this model and mindset of things not reporting as bad as they forecast- and then are praised for moving things in right direction - what ?
    They just reported declining profit and profit trends with flat revenue and minimal subscriber growth

    Same thing will happen this qtr when they ONLY report 25c loss instead of 31c HOORAY !

    They say they will lose money this year but also claim to return to profit later this year - how and why ?? - none of the current metrics or trends on revenue, costs , mix or growth would show this to magically begin. Oh, that's right there is no call with analysts to ask reed how this will happen - and yet most of the analysts show profit fcst and positive EPS FOR for q3 and q4 with profit flat for the year

    What a joke
    Jan 27, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Longs: Are You Glad You Bought And Held? [View article]
    Interesting points to both sides Rocco

    This is exemplified in the fact that you still sold at your exit point - even though your thesis is that Apple is a long term hold.

    Inherently, you must then believe that it will push down to an entry point that allows you to trade back in ?

    I do both with Apple - hold some long term calls as well as buy calls 3 weeks or so before earnings and sell about half prior to earnings report. Can't think of a time this has not worked pretty well.

    The market does push this stock around a lot, although gaps could be less in 2012 vs. 2011 that had all the pushes and pulls related to Steve's health and the 4s not being the 5
    Jan 26, 2012. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Streaming Margins Are 11%, DVD Margins 52% [View article]
    Stock Market is irrational at best

    AAPL Blows away all estimates and is set to almost double profit vs. previous 12 months in 2012 fiscal - and bumps 6.8% day after posting and trades at 13 to TTM

    NFLX exceeds some very low hurdles- shrinks profit vs YOY and vs.previous quarter- says it will move to losing money in the coming 12 months- and is up almost 19% and trades at about 35 to TTM

    And they say Apple management low balls ?- gimme a break !

    I really would love to hear Reed explain exactly how it is that Red will turn Black in 2012 ?- what would be the catalyst ?? - I just don't see it
    Jan 25, 2012. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Honeymoon With The DVD Is Over [View article]
    I think stock will quick bounce up on EPS number - then collapse as 2012 forward statements and the "Is it live or is it Memorex" call take place.

    This has been the model last 2 reports
    Jan 23, 2012. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Honeymoon With The DVD Is Over [View article]
    Tradevestor- you are correct, in fact they did admit they would have substantial losses in 2012 - now go look at analysts consensus estimates for 2012, most of these guys just did not pay attention

    see below latest consensus which has them just about break even for the year - and profitable beginning Q3- "Ain't gonna happen"
    Q1 -29c
    Q2 -15c
    Q3 + 7c
    Q4 + 35c
    Jan 23, 2012. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Honeymoon With The DVD Is Over [View article]
    Reaction post earnings will not be about reported EPS latest quarter, will be about the guidance for this quarter and all of 2012 - most analysts have them projected to make money still in 2012.

    They are going to talk about losses in the range of $2 to $3 for all of 2012 tomorrow I believe - will hit stock hard. they already alluded to this being the scenario, but for some reason most analysts ignored their look forward statements.

    With latest lawsuits for non disclosure of risk - they will get it all out front to avoid liability. Content costs are exploding- while actual content available is set to decline
    Jan 23, 2012. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Friday's Option Trades To Find Investment Ideas [View article]
    does anyone have recommends for brokerage houses if you are trading lots of options contracts ? - and it is in an IRA ?

    $0.25c at Schwab seems cheap - most others are $0.75c or so

    Thanks for any advise
    Jan 14, 2012. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +2.4%) enjoys a boost after B. Riley reiterates its Buy rating, saying investors should hold on to their shares until after the company's Q4 conference call on Jan. 25. Netflix's customer base appears to be stabilizing, Riley says. which should reassure investors that the company is holding its own against the competition.  [View news story]
    So, "Stabilizing" customer base combined with exponentially rising content costs sequentially for next 2 years- while at the same time declining in the amount of content available = "Hold on to your Shares" ???????????????

    Who the hell pays these guys to put this stuff out ??
    Jan 13, 2012. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Gearing Up To Go 'Thermonuclear' In 2012? [View article]
    see below
    4S already has long lines in China
    They still can't make them fast enough !
    The Momentum will only
    continuehttp://http://bit.ly/yimRGU)
    Jan 12, 2012. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple About To Become Netflix? [View article]
    BTW - speaking of good laughs
    You started it off Bro

    "Is Apple About To Become Netflix?"

    Good conversation starter though
    Jan 11, 2012. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple About To Become Netflix? [View article]
    Pretty far off from how things look today

    Have to admit though -
    If someone told you Apple would be the biggest seller of Music and Phones 8 years ago - would have been pretty hysterical as well

    They could pull off CBS and Dreamworks
    These 2 are not even $20BB as of today's valuations
    Are you saying Apple could not make an offer that could not be refused to those 2 ?

    It's going a la carte someday

    Remember when people only bought albums ?
    Jan 11, 2012. 08:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple About To Become Netflix? [View article]
    Provocative title RP

    But Netflix has a lot more negatives even than just the discrepancy in management proficiency vs Apple. They simply don't have the funds or access to expertise to play in Content once they are told no.

    Think about this -
    Apple Buys
    CBS - market cap $17BB
    Dreamworks Studios market cap $1.4BB
    Buys rights to a couple major teams like the Yankees, Lakers, Habs, United etc.


    Then brings in Iger and his team along with John Lasseter from Pixar- gives them tons of stock and free creative rein to run and manage content, advertising and development.

    They still have content to sell to other providers- who will still need to buy it - But they now have a meaningful ala carte menu to offer that gives "cutting the cord" a whole new meaning.

    Somebody's going to do it someday- why not them ?
    Jan 11, 2012. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's 'Monster Quarter' Will Deliver Monster-Sized Results [View article]
    Give me a break
    You lost all credibility when you wrote this last Qtr. and were off by almost $3 in earnings.
    There's no other company on the planet that excites the imagination of its product users as much as Apple. In developing revenue and earnings estimates for the company, I am guided by one overarching principle:
    Apple doesn't sell products. Apple crafts customer relationships and those relationships sell Apple products.
    Understanding Apple's Pathways To Success
    Understanding Apple's pathways to success requires more than an effort at counting the number of individual products that might be sold. It necessitates understanding the company's eco-systems and what motivates enterprises and consumers to invest in the purchase of Apple-branded products.

    My analysis relies heavily on the company's historical growth trends and an evaluation of the phenomena that occur when appealing and abundant content is made readily available for smartly designed devices. These products are offered to customers who have established a relationship with Apple through iTunes, through visits to the company's retail stores or have a long-standing relationship with the company through the use of Apple's popular Macintosh line of personal computers.
    Below are my estimates for the company's September quarter and an overview of the elements that underly the assumption Apple's FQ4 earnings will approach $10 per share:


    Revenue Segment

    Units FQ4 ’11
    Units FQ4 ’10
    Unit Growth
    FQ4 Revenue


    Macintosh

    4,500,000
    3,885,000
    15.83%
    5,737,500,000

    iPhone

    26,500,000
    14,102,000
    87.92%
    17,225,000,000

    iPod

    7,250,000
    9,051,000
    -19.90%
    1,268,750,000

    iPad

    14,500,000
    4,188,000
    246.23%
    9,425,000,000

    Peripherals


    620,000,000

    Software, Services


    800,000,000

    Other Music


    1,625,000,000

    Revenue Total


    36,701,250,000


    Cost of Sales

    58.20%


    -21,360,127,500

    Gross Margin

    41.80%


    15,341,122,500

    Operating Expenses

    8.79%


    -3,225,000,000

    Operating Income


    12,116,122,500

    Other Income


    200,000,000

    Income Before Taxes


    12,316,122,500

    Provision For Taxes

    23.50%


    -2,894,000,000

    Net Income


    9,422,122,500


    Earnings Per Share

    (Based on 940.825 million shares)
    10.01

    Read more »
    Jan 10, 2012. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Dampens The $10,000 Portfolio's Netflix Enthusiasm [View article]
    Walmart is the much better analogy than Apple Rocco

    No real Moat other than size/scope and scalability=Walmart

    If I buy something online- Amazon needs to be as cheap as any other online provider of same product - Prime offsets this somewhat but not to level they hoped. This is why their margins have always been miniscule.

    Bezos has said form day one he really doesn't care if they make money- he just wants to build something really big- good for him, that is admirable - but not a sustainable profit model that I would invest my money in for short or long term.

    At their size and with their business model- when is it that you see margins and profits hitting levels that justify let alone sustain 100+ earnings multiples. I just don't see it, but would be interested to hear how you model that happening ??.

    Would be spectacular if they somehow got to $2.50 for 2013 from current base, which at current price is still around 100x. I know you sometimes argue that PE Multiples don't matter- but hey, this is not close to being a start up- this is a $100BB company with same growth rates as about Apple, but < 5% of the earnings
    Oct 26, 2011. 01:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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