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  • $10,000 Portfolio Update: Netflix Earnings Disaster Edition [View article]
    Very mixed bag out there right now-guidance not stellar for most companies as they are all a little uneasy(xcpt AAPL and CAT)
    I was long Calls on BRCM and am getting slaughtered as well - and they came in $0.04c over !!

    Dont feel too bad RP- you have been on a roll for the most part
    Oct 25, 2011. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $10,000 Portfolio Update: Netflix Earnings Disaster Edition [View article]
    I dont know on Amazon longer term RP
    They will have to sustainably grow earnings at some point to justify multiple. Their margins are already razor thin and amounts to discount they offer by not charging sales tax - which may be taken away.

    Growth just for growth's sake eventually just gets you to where Walmart is. Regardless, it is just strange the way market views one company vs another. It's not like Amazon is a start up anymore, but trades at similar multiple.

    I have no position and hope Amzn turns out well for you
    Oct 25, 2011. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $10,000 Portfolio Update: Netflix Earnings Disaster Edition [View article]
    I don't get the market and how it sets expectations

    Apple trades at 15x and grows almost 50% to prior and gets slammed because analysts had no clue how to analyze the 4S launch dynamics across qtrs.

    yet Amazon trades at 100x and sets" expectations that earnings will shrink by 50% to py qtr and will be rewarded for slightly exceeding that ridiculously bad number

    if Apple did this they would be roasted
    Oct 25, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect When You're Expecting Netflix Earnings [View article]
    See below - talk about hope and a prayer- If I read this correctly, they are not going to be profitable in 2012 and are telling us now

    In Q1’12 we’ll be launching in the UK and Ireland, as we had planned. For a few quarters starting in Q1, we expect the costs of our entry into the UK and Ireland will push us to be unprofitable on a global basis; that is, domestic profits will not be large enough to both cover international investments and pay for global G&A and Technology & Development. After launching the UK and Ireland, we will pause on opening new international markets until we return to global profitability. We plan to do that by increasing our global streaming subscriber base faster than we increase our costs.

    damn - I just missed my bid to short before close
    but may jump back in tomorrow
    Oct 24, 2011. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Expect When You're Expecting Netflix Earnings [View article]
    They are guiding Q4 at $0.36 to $0.70- which at midpoint is less than half previous standing estimates

    The statement Re: Q1 2012 says they SHOULD have enough cash to meet obligations globally- after they spent almost $40MM in current Qtr to buy their own stock at $218 ==== WHAT ??
    Oct 24, 2011. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Apple's Earnings Can Be Hazardous To Your Mental Health [View article]
    I got that one all wrong
    Will be interesting to see actual Q1 results with guidance at $37B and $9.30 from Apple which usually sandbags about 20% low.

    - maybe this is a buy opportunity tomorrow ??
    Oct 18, 2011. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Apple's Earnings Can Be Hazardous To Your Mental Health [View article]
    While I get that AAPL can be mind and soul bending with volatility
    I think now is time to have courage of your convictions - you missed some big calls on your Nflx and RIMM assessments on other side of trade

    To me, this is perfect set up for AAPL to explode after blow out earnings today - IPads finally are fully supplied globally in fiscal Q4 and should come in between 13 and 14 million
    iPhone 4 did not go away and 4s not available in most other countries until December = less inv reduction of 4 model
    Plus Macs will Rock back to School numbers
    All this means $33 to $35BB AND EPS closer to $10 than $8
    Big difference this earnings is all agree coming QTR will be a monster so less reason to sell into it.

    Add to that Tim and Senior Management will not go into tomorrow corp campus celebration of Steve's life with anything less than a blow out qtr and so will pull everything they can into this report - added on top of that, there is no risk or reason to push any earnings into next Qtr which willbe huge regardless

    AAPL 445 to 450 at end of week
    Oct 18, 2011. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Big Idea: TVs, From Design To Distribution [View article]
    Apple will own the home digital experience from hardware to storage and streaming (iCloud)

    This will then force Enterprise to convert - which is already happening as SEnior Management brings their iPad to work after using on the train and need it to integrate

    think about it- they are only one who can bring one singular iOS to your home that will operate and integrate your phone/tablet/PC/laptop and now your TV- all in the most modern and attractive product lines
    Sep 19, 2011. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion Will Rise Again, It Is Just A Matter Of Time [View article]
    Any article providing hope for future based on RIMM management guidance for next quarter is a joke

    Do you really believe that EPS will be 62.5% above the recent quarter they just reported and with margins in decline = NO
    Revenue will not be $5BB and will be lucky if $4.5BB

    Playbook is failure and is the build out model for QNX
    No BB user will want current phones as they will either buy iPhone 5 or wait for RIMM QNX phones in 2012

    Management is only saying what they "hope" will happen next quarter not providing guidance

    Guarantee EPS BELOW $1.00
    Book it Danno !
    Sep 18, 2011. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix And RIM Down, One Will Rebound [View article]
    If churn will go down in your estimation based on past history trend extrapolations - which IMO holds no value - because future for nflx holds declining content value with added competition from Hulu, Amazon, Dish/blockbuster and soon Apple TV that will easily take churn and quit rates in USA to 2 or 3x current rates over next 2-3 quarters.

    Why the hell do you think Nflx and SEC are fighting over NFLX wanting to stop reporting churn ?? - see article below - would they do this if the thought it was going down ?
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Friday's Options Activity To Get Ready For Monday's Market [View article]
    See further below -
    How hilariously out of touch is this stuff from these analysts on the stock - this same guy when interviewed on TV after last Qtr. report was asked about the off balance sheet accounting for AP - and replied- "Well that's a good question I guess and we should look in to that"- of course never heard from him again on the issue.

    "Piper Jaffray’s Mike Olson today reiterates an Overweight rating on shares of Netflix (NFLX), while cutting estimates for a second day in a row following yesterday’s announcement by the company that subscribers will be fewer this quarter than previously thought as a result of price changes."

    "Olson cut his price target to $300 from $305, after yesterday cutting the price from $330."

    They are all just looking to cozy up now for the 2nd offering that will have to come - which should dilute value to $75 or so
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Friday's Options Activity To Get Ready For Monday's Market [View article]
    Rocco et al
    Check this out
    Story just gets betterer and betterer !!
    Stay short my friends

    While Reed fights this fight against SEC - he continues to sell 5000 shares each and every week and retain no options

    Ain't really hard to figure out
    Sep 16, 2011. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Piper's Mike Olson is reiterating an Overweight on Netflix (NFLX -8.3%), but is cutting his PT, and predicting churn will remain relatively high for a while. Olson also thinks concerns about churn will weigh on shares over the near-term. On a more positive note, Cablevision's (CVC) COO says he's interested in selling Netflix's service to cable subscribers. (previously)  [View news story]
    How do ya like them apples
    Sep 16, 2011. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Struggling At $400: Great Low-Risk Short [View article]
    Silliness and ignorance continues to abide with AAPL shorts and Bears- walk into an Apple store sometime and then realize they will build 10x what they have now and with their sales at RETAIL not Wholesale = minimum 35% greater margins than all their competitors - 5 stores ion China do $1BB IN Sales.

    They literally cannot make enough product to meet demand

    ........ And the stock trades at same or somewhat below PE of

    Can't believe anyone would or would recommend short AAPL
    Not one sell rating by any analyst - well in less you count yourself as an analyst

    Go for it bro
    Sep 16, 2011. 05:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix To Face An Uphill Battle In Beating Expectations [View article]
    It is worse than you think on losing Starz
    Yourself and others should do some better research and stop quoting the Nflx company line about only 8% of streaming - that is misleading as it accounted for 15% before Sony pulled their content about 2 months ago - after that it became only 8% because half the content was gone

    It was so important they had a Starz banner/button on site
    Sep 16, 2011. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment