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BigJ1260

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  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Q2 EPS of -$0.02 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $15.70B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Shares -2.4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Whats hilarious is that all the analysts and shows keep quoting PE to 2014 earnings and still have them making almost $1 in Q4 2013

    Aint gonna happen - Amzn will guide and see Q4 at around break even (means about zero profit in 2013) and will guide 2014 at maybe flat to $1.50 (they always have HUGE ranges) while analysts have them making around $3.00 in 2014

    They will just about NEVER make any real profit - all their businesses are incredibly price sensitive and easily replicated or have big competitors. If they ever raise prices to actually make real profits, their business will go Flat overnight, they know this, which is why they never raise prices. Yet analysts keep talking about "when they raise prices"" - It ain't ever coming folks. CFO said as much today on call.

    Scary part is when all the analysts take 2013 and 2014 to about flat on profit - they will keep the fairytale alive and raise stock price

    What a joke !!
    Jul 25 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Hard to believe Amazon up today after Ebay results and comments
    Msft and Goog Results

    But market is somewhat euphoric- Goog missed by over 10% on earnings, has missed 7 quarters in a row on revenue and is only down 1.5% or so with talking heads saying "This is temporary, $1200 stock by next year" - What ??
    Ad Revs are 87% of their revenue and cost per click will not be going up anytime soon on mobile- this is NOT temporary

    This is why you cannot short Amazn into earnings- They could easily miss Rev and guide down for next with result being stock goes up.
    Jul 19 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Won't Be Able To Profitably Build A BMW 3-Series Competitor [View article]
    You can never quote BMW models at base model - check out the way they charge for add ons that no other company does (A/C- Sound system- Leather or trim- power steering etc.) - a BMW 3 will cost you atleast $5K more than base model list price. They don't even have a "base model" available at any of the dealers.

    For same price - Will you want an ugly prius looking i-3 that is slow , lacks range and is bare bones on digital connectivity and communication.

    - - - or a sexy, fast, longer range, technically advanced, digitally connected and enhanced Tesla G3 with free charges at a network of what will easily be over 300 supercharging stations that charge you up 5x as fast as competitors charging stops.

    = stop less, charge faster and for free

    Huge advantage for Tesla against ICE competitiors attempting to compete in EV- NO one who is high performer at ICE car companies wants to work on EV versions and no big deal if it fails as 98% of their focus and sales are on ICE cars. Tesla high performers get promoted or fired only for selling and growing sales of EV ONLY PERIOD.
    Jul 12 06:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA +0.8%) CEO Elon Musk says current production of the Model S is over 400 per week and expressed confidence it would reach a level of 800 by late next year. On future plans, Musk also exuded optimism: "We going to have every kind of car you could possibly imagine." [View news story]
    Imagine the power of the Tesla drive in a pick up at $35K to $45K

    Good bye to all the gas guzzling huge engine pick ups at $35 to $50K
    Dodge Ram, Silverado, etc. - this is a huge market and the savings on gas would be enormous. Would even take a lot of share from Toyota Tacoma and F-150.

    Bcus of the weight of the battery spread acoss the entire chassis- there would be no more sliding around in mud and snow as with other pick ups.
    Jul 11 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Paulo- I like all of your in depth analysis on AMZN

    However, a little bit of a cop out to blame Helicopter Ben for the seemingly irrational positive slope on AMZN - there are plenty of other stocks that have gone down in last 3 years whilst AMZN has gone pretty much straight up.

    It is amazing that it has continued to do so - when you consider the following REv growth for the 6 quarters since Q1 2012 -
    34%-29%-27%-22%-22% and then 20.5% for this qtr if you are correct at $15.47BB. So much for the bulls who argue "its all about growth" - and then on top of it - they have made -0- profit over these 6 quarters. Let's see ...... consistently slowing growth over a sustained period and zero profits = ????? (in this case an exploding price)


    To me, this is much more about constant pump from analysts houses who keep issuing the paper for amazon

    What will be really funny is when they guide 2014 to zero profit - and analysts will still recommend "Buy". What is really unhealthy about this is that it distorts competition in the market place - all their competitors are required by the market and their shareholders to make profitable decisions - Apple, Ebay, Goog, walmart, Target, best buy, barnes&noble, Rackspace, Msft in each of their respective areas- Amazon does not need to and keeps borrowing money and paying employees with stock. Competitors like Rax and BKS go out of business and consumers are left with less choices.

    It ain't supposed to work that way !
    Jul 11 08:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Gets A Big ETF Promotion [View article]
    Logical Thought

    Yes, S Sales in USA will slow in 12 months or so
    - but Europe and Asia will just be taking off at same time (with gas at 2 to 3x US Prices) and will explode S orders above US rates.

    Tsla will offset the S slow down in US with Intro of their SUV Model in 2014 for USA- this will take sales from the 60K to 100K SUV category in USA which is substantial.- They will then roll this out in Euro-Asia in 2015 after ramping US production to meet demand.

    BMW i3 is no threat at only 118 mile range and the prius like ugliness- also, it will be close to $50,000 with the range extend and all the add ons that BMW is famous for charging xtra for on all their models - seriously, go into a showroom and all models are $4k to $15K over list with things like AC, Nav, Leather, Premium tires, CD or stereo. These are standard on Tesla and most other cars.

    Meanwhile - have to believe the $35K to $40k heart of market model from Tesla in 2016 will far surpass all aspects of the BMW i3 or any other car company as they are all far behind at this point. Ford is doing some good things though.

    All of the above shows a clear path to execute tremendous sales growth over next 5 years. In less we were to have another Big recession / depression in which case all car companies will suffer.
    Jul 10 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Gets A Big ETF Promotion [View article]
    Sharkdude- catch a clue

    Ever seen Amazon PE or earnings projections ? - Been around almost 20 years and they are not anything close to being a start up.

    Tsla is just getting established and has huge upfront capital investments, yet they are already making money after only one year and projecting 25% margins by end of year. They could easily grow revenue by well over 100% for next 5 years- Amazon will grow about 15% next 5 years at best.

    The large car companies take 4-5 years to bring new car concept to market and lose money for years and years after roll out.
    Jul 9 05:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battle Of The Serial Disrupters: The Long Case For Netflix [View article]
    I was bearish NFLX 2 yrs ago and made a lot on the crash
    - My thesis was low barriers to competition and content providers would kill it in cradle.

    Now Bullish and see back to $300 this year
    - new thesis is that studios and content providers will prop up NFLX as lone alternative (= high barrier to entry for others) to limit diverse alternatives for cord cutting for core subscribers to cable (families and middle upper income)- they have lost the 18-30 year olds who pay their own bills, I have a daughter who is 25 and 8 nieces nephews 18-30, literally NONE as in -0- of them or their friends subscribe to cable or plan on EVER doing so (as currently available)
    Jul 8 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) says early demand for Model S vehicles from Hong Kong is strong even though the automaker hasn't set a price yet for the EV which will go on sale in the city this winter. TSLA +3.7% premarket to $119.50. [View news story]
    Also Esekla
    they did not "sell" over 300 in China
    - they took preorders with no dates for delivery and not even knowing the price they will pay
    Jul 5 02:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) says early demand for Model S vehicles from Hong Kong is strong even though the automaker hasn't set a price yet for the EV which will go on sale in the city this winter. TSLA +3.7% premarket to $119.50. [View news story]
    Esekla
    you have it backwards, people don't buy Tsla bcus it is green and good for the environment - those type people buy Prius. they buy Tesla bcus it is a kick ass car and best in it's class, just so happens it also has benefits of EV.

    When the demand goes up and category explodes- Electric generation will scale and become efficient for EV batteries both t home and on the road - and charging technologies will improve and come down in price for same reasons.- thus driving down costs and prices for solar- which Elon is set up to vertically integrate with SCTY.

    Oh, and stop making things up about CA electric generation, we are moving quickly away from coal and towards NG (cheaper and cleaner) and solar- all Tsla charging stations are solar.
    Jul 5 01:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things You Didn't Know About Car Charging Group... That Make A Big Difference [View article]
    Tesla will have over 200 charging stations by early 2014 - that will be FREE to Tesla owners - I see this as a huge advantage to Tesla owners vs Leaf and Volt if CCGI property owners want to try to continue charging what equates to $10/Gal gas rate for recharging by the hour at their stations.

    If same dynamics in place when Tesla rolls out a $30-$35,000 car in 2015- then they will own the EV category and CCGI will be worth close to -0-
    Jul 4 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Q2 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Here is the problem - Bezos and his WS cohorts are masters of pivoting the story and the spin behind it.

    If they come in at below 20% growth - look for them to begin talking about how massive investments of past quarters are now "nearing completion" and they will be able to bring margins up bcus of slowing capital investments - and that this has been the plan all along and is right on schedule.

    Then look for all the talking heads to repeat ad nauseum on TV and stock will pop instead of declining.
    Jun 26 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Q2 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Although Paulo does a great job dissecting the business trends and predicting qtrly results- be very careful about shorting earnings- even when Amzn misses top or bottom or both - it does not seem to effect price next day - it typically goes down in after market initially and then rallies up 5 to 10% in the days after.

    Just because Paulo is right about the company- doesn't mean you can assume he is saying the stock will go down based on these results - and I doubt that it will as incredible as that is.
    Jun 24 08:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Larry Ellison (ORCL) having spilled the beans about pending cloud partnership deals with rivals Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), and NetSuite (N) during Oracle's FQ4 call, Microsoft has sent out invites for a Monday event featuring top Oracle and Microsoft execs. Ellison's remarks suggest said rivals are due to announce their cloud services will support Oracle's new 12c database, whose multi-tenant support makes it better-suited for public cloud services than predecessors. A Microsoft partnership is notable given the company's SQL Server database is arguably 12c's biggest rival, and suggests Redmond doesn't want to hamper Windows Azure demand by taking a Microsoft-only software approach. (more on Oracle[View news story]
    Can anyone comment on how this effects other Cloud players such as Rackspace ?
    Jun 24 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Swap Is A No-Go [View article]
    I think the whole point being missed
    is how easy and economical it will be to upgrade or replace your Tesla
    engine (Battery) - as technology improves. 90 seconds and drive away with your new engine in place.

    Biggest reason to throw away or trade in a ICE vehicle is the engine starts to fail and needs to be replaced - or needs boatloads of maintenance expenditures. Add on to this that brakes pads last well over 100K miles and you will save lots of money on electric vs gas- less maintenance and easy/economical upgrades on your engine (battery) which means you probably keep your car for 10-15 years instead of 5-8 which also means less pollution and waste from junked cars and car parts.

    BRILLIANT !!
    Jun 21 05:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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