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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • Amazon.com Media Revenue Growth Will Probably Turn Negative [View article]
    Paulo makes good points on continued decline of "media" revenue due to console update timing - large ticket items being most effected by Tax Advantages is another reason revenue growth will continue to decline.

    Something that has not been analyzed enough - and never questioned in depth - is what % of growth has been due to acquisitions last 3 years - Diapers.com and Zappos were huge revenue companies with very high growth when folded in.
    Mar 1 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Media Revenue Growth Will Probably Turn Negative [View article]
    This has to be the least "analyzed" stock by the analysts

    They will report and fcst lower revenue growth again - and the analysts will all say "look they improved margins by .4% again !"
    - which of course is all due to the 3P shell game.

    This company is for some reason allowed to enter any arena at all and claim "making money doesn't matter" - look at cloud services, every other provider is judged on whether or not they have a profit model and story- but NOOOO - not Amazon since it is all part of some obscure master plan for world domination - Whatever !

    Why don't they just become a defense contractor too - and make jets and submarines for 20% less than all competitors ?? - then they could lose even more money - and have the stock go even higher !!
    Mar 1 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "High above the Alps my Gnome is hearing a rumor that Apple will announce a stock split at tomorrow's shareholder meeting," tweets Doug Kass. The rumor has led Apple (AAPL +1%) shares to spike higher. Update (2:24 PM): Kass is using the post-rumor spike to sell part of his trading position in Apple. [View news story]
    Blatant manipulation to get out of position
    - I used it for a quick profit turn though

    Any Divy or split or buyback etc. - will only be announced in March at the Board meeting NOT at tomorrow's shareholder meeting
    Feb 26 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Margin Myth: Sleight Of Hand [View article]
    Revenue Growth should be about 20% this year at most- which is not great given the PE expansion. I would love to see an analysis of how much growth last 3 years was due to Diapers and Zappos acquisitions and their organic growth being accretive. Amzn does not have much left to acquire to grow US business which has been main driver of growth.

    Add to that Target and Walmart are looking to match up against them in 2013 - they can easily implement a "break even" strategy a la AMZN for their online business and keep AMZN in a box for foreseeable future as far as an margin expansion opportunities.

    Meanwhile E bay is growing same rate as AMZN and is better at 3rd party process - with no fulfillment or credit card fees due to their model owning paypal
    Feb 7 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    BTW Ken D
    Apple made more profit in 37 days last quarter than Amzn has made in it's ENTIRE EXISTENCE !!
    Jan 30 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    Ken D
    You are absolutely right on the trade- but way off base on attitude of each company - Bezos and AMZN management will not provide any true metrics Re: sales vs Prior on Kindle or any other specific items bcus they are starting to suck - instead they publish BS carnival barker "look at me" statements like we sold enough kindles to reach halfway to the moon etc. - you have your thesis backwards on comparing these two.
    Jan 30 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Growing much faster than AMZN - and will continue to make profit and grow margins commensurate with growth - novel concept

    AMZN is a joke stock
    Jan 30 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ1 EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $6B (+28% Y/Y) beats by $100M. Raises Q2 and FY13 guidance. Shares +4.7% AH. (PR). [View news story]
    Growing faster than AMZN - and profitably- what a novel concept !
    Jan 30 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    CNBC starts story not with Miss and lowered guidance - but headline for them is that "Margins are improving" and Bezos is the new Steve Jobs and state that increased margins bodes well for future earnings.

    Thats just ignorant, they do not have and will not have any pricing power - competition will step in as soon as they raise prices in any segment.

    Bezos does all he can to copy apple and google and bought Zappos and Diapers.com bcus he could not compete - that is not Jobsian
    Jan 29 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
    I see Amzn settling in to about 15-17% growth for 2013 due to tax issues expanding and matching by WMT and TGT - with maybe about $1.00 in earnings.

    They have Zero pricing power against competitors and so will never grow earnings significantly - regardless of maybe beginning to sell enough Phones to "circle the earth laid end to end" or some other carnival barker metric from Bezos. Stock price action vs reality is so reminiscent of dotcom debacle and is emblematic of why Retail investor will still not get back into market anytime soon.
    Jan 29 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    This is why the retail investor will not get back into the market anytime soon

    Macro - I made 40% on my puts before selling 80% of them today so I am fine on my trade. Calls would have been a good trade, but I do not go long in companies I don't believe in. Can you explain rationally why a company that misses its own guidance on both Rev $ and earnings, then guides way below consensus for next Qtr has its stock go up ??
    Jan 29 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com [View article]
    At midpoint of guidance of $15.5BB for Q1 would = about 18% growth YOY = lowest for Q1 in over 5 years, yet stock price is rewarded

    Just nonsensical for analysts to still recommend "based on growth"
    Qcom is growing faster than this and Ebay is at about same level
    But price is still being bid up - on what ??

    Luckily I sold 80% of my PUTs at a profit before market close as I have seen this story before
    Jan 29 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    At midpoint of guidance of $15.5BB for Q1 would = about 18% growth YOY = lowest for Q1 in over 5 years, yet stock price is rewarded

    Just nonsensical for analysts to still recommend "based on growth"
    Qcom is growing faster than this and so is Ebay
    But price is still being bid up - on what ??

    Luckily I sold 80% of my PUTs at a profit before market close as I have seen this story before
    Jan 29 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    Something is just not right with this stock and its actions/reactions

    Missed own guidance on Revenue- missed consensus on earnings
    Guided below consensus on revenue and earnings

    Hardly any short float
    Yet stock goes up - What ??
    Jan 29 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Deja Vu All over again

    Missed Consensus Revenue by $1BB
    Missed earnings
    Guided about $1BB below consensus for Q1

    yet stock goes up after initial down trend
    Jan 29 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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