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BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • Lululemon: A Scandalous Juggernaut [View article]
    THis whole pants issue is being exaggerated and used as an excuse to pull their numbers way down from where they were for Q1 and year

    Only 17% of pants supposedly effected, Yet they pull Q1 Rev down $20-$25MM and Full Year down $45 to $50MM and earnings down Around $0.27c from $2.25 for year to $1.98 or so. Do the math, what a joke, they should be able to have these pants fully restocked in a month at most, yet Revenes in Q3 and Q4 will be effected ? - BS !

    Is there a slight issue with these pants - Yes, but they saw their numbers were slowing and are making this the only headline - otherwise with sales trends as they are organically (maybe 10% comp sales) going forward, stock would have dropped $10 to $15 today.

    It'sPants issue will be fully resolved in 6 weeks at most, and now they magically have reduced full year guidance by over 10% - what a joke !
    Mar 21, 2013. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Athletica CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Is there a slight pants issue that will effect things near term ?
    Yes, but not nearly to the extent that management is projecting.

    They could fly over good replacement product in 4 weeks from today at most, meanwhile - you are crazy if you think they are eating all of the costs or paying for new product that does not meet standards.
    Also- it is only March 20th and the defective pants started selling March 1st so cannot be that many.
    On top of that, it is only one version of their yoga pants and only 17% of that model - yet they are taking Q1 and 2 Revenues down around $40MM to $50MM and full year EPS down over 10% !

    This whole thing is just a very convenient excuse to take Revenue and earnings way down for remainder of year (ridiculous)- they will now have an easy beat for 2013. They saw organic comps trends not at projections for 2013 - and were smart to make this small issue the major headline to take down projections for the next 12 Months !!
    That's just absurd and does not compute when you do the math.

    Very smart by management- and they will all be heroes now that things "turn around due to great management of this very difficult issue" - stock should have been down $10 to $20 today without this smart, but very exaggerated story that now colors all analysis.

    I worked in this type industry , real story should have been - Hey, on our call, we would like to let everyone know that we had a minor issue with a small % of one of our yoga pants models for a few weeks of sales in March only, we addressed it with the manufacturer, split costs to fly over new replacement product and will be accepting returns on these products that were purchased over last 3 weeks, effect is $0.05c to $0.10c for Q1 only. Instead they were smart enough to go with their current BS story about the issue's effects on all of 2013.
    Mar 21, 2013. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of Amazon: How Long Will Suppliers, Sellers And Customers Keep The Doors Open? [View article]
    I have sold thru Amazon

    They give you a menu to choose from - pay you within 30 days and you sign up for a "support marketing program" that requires you to give them anywhere from 2 to 10 Pts of incremental margin discount.

    Or get paid in 60 to 90 days with less and less "margin support" required on payment terms.

    Google and E Bay have a big oppty to take these vendors away - IF they can build to scale and get the eyeballs.
    Mar 19, 2013. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something That Amazon Did Well [View article]
    Good that you recognize this risk Paulo

    Remember, all that it takes is for Bezos to move a few minor items around like this to goose GM% by maybe .5% and the media will lap up his new story about how although Rev growth is declining, they are now focused on Margin to "provide value in the future" blah - blah - blah

    Bottom line, they will miss Revenue (again!) - guide revenue lower (again !) - and the stock will go up just like last qtr. as this same story above is what will be repeated by analysts and media (again!)
    Mar 16, 2013. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
    Big Problem is that WS analysts and media will print whatever story/spin Bezos comes out with after each report - loook at last earnings, missed Rev est by $1BB and guided this qtr lower by $1BB vs consensus at the time.

    So, what was reported ? - "Amazon grows margins - portends great things for future as they grow revenues". Bezos has about 5 different ways to move $ around and tell the story he wants, which is then repeated by WS and media ad nauseum. They will miss Revenue for sure this qtr. - and the stock will go up bcus the 3P growth and effect on reported GM% is what will be reported.
    Mar 13, 2013. 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Investment Case For Phablets: A New Gadget That Will Capture Your Attention [View article]
    I agree completely with this article

    Apple, etc. have built out the Tablet and Phone product categories separately on purpose in order to derive 2 purchases from same consumer - for really almost no reason in at least 50% of cases worldwide - Think about it - what is most important to you about your smartphone ?? - I doubt that making calls, listening to v-mail, texting etc. would even rank top 10 - even a $100 dumb phone would be expected to do that as a baseline. It is really a portable digital device that keeps you connected to all parts of your life and the world.

    If iPad Min's made phone calls - I bet half of all folks with an ipad and iphone currently (including myself) - would only have a mini -particularly women.

    Really what we want is what was called a PDA about 7-8 years ago - but were not yet ready for prime time. Smartphones should not even be called phones - they just do that still to help make you think you need Phone and a Tablet. I bet Google does this first as they dont care about making money on devices, just getting more ad screens out there.
    Mar 1, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Media Revenue Growth Will Probably Turn Negative [View article]
    Paulo makes good points on continued decline of "media" revenue due to console update timing - large ticket items being most effected by Tax Advantages is another reason revenue growth will continue to decline.

    Something that has not been analyzed enough - and never questioned in depth - is what % of growth has been due to acquisitions last 3 years - Diapers.com and Zappos were huge revenue companies with very high growth when folded in.
    Mar 1, 2013. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Media Revenue Growth Will Probably Turn Negative [View article]
    This has to be the least "analyzed" stock by the analysts

    They will report and fcst lower revenue growth again - and the analysts will all say "look they improved margins by .4% again !"
    - which of course is all due to the 3P shell game.

    This company is for some reason allowed to enter any arena at all and claim "making money doesn't matter" - look at cloud services, every other provider is judged on whether or not they have a profit model and story- but NOOOO - not Amazon since it is all part of some obscure master plan for world domination - Whatever !

    Why don't they just become a defense contractor too - and make jets and submarines for 20% less than all competitors ?? - then they could lose even more money - and have the stock go even higher !!
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "High above the Alps my Gnome is hearing a rumor that Apple will announce a stock split at tomorrow's shareholder meeting," tweets Doug Kass. The rumor has led Apple (AAPL +1%) shares to spike higher. Update (2:24 PM): Kass is using the post-rumor spike to sell part of his trading position in Apple. [View news story]
    Blatant manipulation to get out of position
    - I used it for a quick profit turn though

    Any Divy or split or buyback etc. - will only be announced in March at the Board meeting NOT at tomorrow's shareholder meeting
    Feb 26, 2013. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Margin Myth: Sleight Of Hand [View article]
    Revenue Growth should be about 20% this year at most- which is not great given the PE expansion. I would love to see an analysis of how much growth last 3 years was due to Diapers and Zappos acquisitions and their organic growth being accretive. Amzn does not have much left to acquire to grow US business which has been main driver of growth.

    Add to that Target and Walmart are looking to match up against them in 2013 - they can easily implement a "break even" strategy a la AMZN for their online business and keep AMZN in a box for foreseeable future as far as an margin expansion opportunities.

    Meanwhile E bay is growing same rate as AMZN and is better at 3rd party process - with no fulfillment or credit card fees due to their model owning paypal
    Feb 7, 2013. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    BTW Ken D
    Apple made more profit in 37 days last quarter than Amzn has made in it's ENTIRE EXISTENCE !!
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders [View article]
    Ken D
    You are absolutely right on the trade- but way off base on attitude of each company - Bezos and AMZN management will not provide any true metrics Re: sales vs Prior on Kindle or any other specific items bcus they are starting to suck - instead they publish BS carnival barker "look at me" statements like we sold enough kindles to reach halfway to the moon etc. - you have your thesis backwards on comparing these two.
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Growing much faster than AMZN - and will continue to make profit and grow margins commensurate with growth - novel concept

    AMZN is a joke stock
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ1 EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $6B (+28% Y/Y) beats by $100M. Raises Q2 and FY13 guidance. Shares +4.7% AH. (PR). [View news story]
    Growing faster than AMZN - and profitably- what a novel concept !
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    CNBC starts story not with Miss and lowered guidance - but headline for them is that "Margins are improving" and Bezos is the new Steve Jobs and state that increased margins bodes well for future earnings.

    Thats just ignorant, they do not have and will not have any pricing power - competition will step in as soon as they raise prices in any segment.

    Bezos does all he can to copy apple and google and bought Zappos and Diapers.com bcus he could not compete - that is not Jobsian
    Jan 29, 2013. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
206 Comments
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