BigJ1260

BigJ1260
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  • The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com  [View article]
    I see Amzn settling in to about 15-17% growth for 2013 due to tax issues expanding and matching by WMT and TGT - with maybe about $1.00 in earnings.

    They have Zero pricing power against competitors and so will never grow earnings significantly - regardless of maybe beginning to sell enough Phones to "circle the earth laid end to end" or some other carnival barker metric from Bezos. Stock price action vs reality is so reminiscent of dotcom debacle and is emblematic of why Retail investor will still not get back into market anytime soon.
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders  [View article]
    This is why the retail investor will not get back into the market anytime soon

    Macro - I made 40% on my puts before selling 80% of them today so I am fine on my trade. Calls would have been a good trade, but I do not go long in companies I don't believe in. Can you explain rationally why a company that misses its own guidance on both Rev $ and earnings, then guides way below consensus for next Qtr has its stock go up ??
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Double Impact Of Sales Tax On Amazon.com  [View article]
    At midpoint of guidance of $15.5BB for Q1 would = about 18% growth YOY = lowest for Q1 in over 5 years, yet stock price is rewarded

    Just nonsensical for analysts to still recommend "based on growth"
    Qcom is growing faster than this and Ebay is at about same level
    But price is still being bid up - on what ??

    Luckily I sold 80% of my PUTs at a profit before market close as I have seen this story before
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders  [View article]
    At midpoint of guidance of $15.5BB for Q1 would = about 18% growth YOY = lowest for Q1 in over 5 years, yet stock price is rewarded

    Just nonsensical for analysts to still recommend "based on growth"
    Qcom is growing faster than this and so is Ebay
    But price is still being bid up - on what ??

    Luckily I sold 80% of my PUTs at a profit before market close as I have seen this story before
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders  [View article]
    Something is just not right with this stock and its actions/reactions

    Missed own guidance on Revenue- missed consensus on earnings
    Guided below consensus on revenue and earnings

    Hardly any short float
    Yet stock goes up - What ??
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today?  [View article]
    Deja Vu All over again

    Missed Consensus Revenue by $1BB
    Missed earnings
    Guided about $1BB below consensus for Q1

    yet stock goes up after initial down trend
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Should Post Strong Results, But Sales Tax Impact In Question  [View article]
    You write that you are looking forward to the Conf call and hearing about how Amazon will return to profitability and how Kindles sold

    Just FYI - Management never directly addresses these 2 issues on earnings calls other than some strange and unmeasurable hyperbole like "we sold enough kindles to stack halfway to the moon"
    - complete obfuscation and this stock is supported by WS cabal regardless of how poor the results are each quarter.

    They will not meet revenue estimates this qtr, but it won't matter, - analysts will glom on to some other area of spin by Bezos and stock will shoot up next day after being down in after hours post report.
    Jan 25, 2013. 02:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night  [View article]
    I am bullish AAPL

    However, you spent a lot of time comping and benchmarking Fiscal Q1 results in 2013 vs last year 2012 - without ever mentioning that last year had 14 weeks vs this year at 13 weeks, this is somewhere around $1.00 or more difference and is not insubstantial
    Jan 14, 2013. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Estimates Too Rosy For Amazon's 4th Quarter  [View article]
    MIchael428

    I have read most all of Paulo's analysis of Amazon
    He is essentially correct in most of his estimations and thesis

    However, there is still lots go growth in commerce globally - and this will allow Amazon and their cartel of institutional supporters to continue to tell story that profit does not matter for years to come or maybe even decades. I am not a believer in this story as they will essentially never make money at any meaningful rate because barriers to entry for competition on price will stay low forever.

    Main point to me is that regardless of $1.00 loss or $1.00 gain - stock will most likely continue upwards for reasons above - and investors should not utilize analysis regarding non profitability or declining profits to short the stock.

    If/when the revenue growth story ever dissolves - then you could see meaningful decline. With their 3rd party growth domestically and very high growth internationally - I don't see this happening for awhile.
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Estimates Too Rosy For Amazon's 4th Quarter  [View article]
    I am telling you guys -

    Believe the analysis is correct and they will miss - but it most likely won't matter. Large institutions prop this stock up and help Bezos spin the story after each miss.

    Last quarter the came in at loss of $0.60c to estimate of $0.08c loss - and the stock rallied $15 next day - some BS story about how margins improved slightly portending great things in future - this slight increase was only due to 3rd party increase as % of mix with better margins.

    Lots of people have been correct on predicting misses by AMZN last few quarters - and if they were short, they got killed.
    Jan 4, 2013. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Estimates Too Rosy For Amazon's 4th Quarter  [View article]
    Great focused analysis without getting lost in the weeds and you are most likely correct at them missing vs the analyst estimates

    But sadly , it won't matter, this has happened many times lately and stock falls initially in after market and then races up next day being supported by large institutional buys and positive statements Re: long term trends

    Do not short this stock as results have no meaning to price
    Jan 3, 2013. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pres. Obama reportedly won't be making a new budget offer to Republicans today, and will instead reiterate last week's proposal. Stocks have tanked on the news. S&P -1%. Dow -1.1%. NASDAQ -0.7%[View news story]
    Hilarious reading all you right winger whack jobs just re spew FOX talking points

    Everyone knows Obama and Dems only ones to have offered compromise position at all, with spending cuts and Medicare cuts and soc security index put on table - Speaker Boner can't even get his own bill passed in his own caucus to bring tax rate on income over $1MM back to the pre Bush Rates - which BTW was supposed to happen 2 years ago when the cut rates were originally passed


    Still cleaning up after Bush Cheney regime
    Probably take another 4 years just like it took Clinton 2 terms to fix republican over spending
    Dec 28, 2012. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hulu should consider buying Netflix (NFLX -11.9%) in order to instantly add to its movie library and number of subscribers, argues Louis Bedigan. The key to the deal for owners NBC <, Fox (NWS +1.4%), and ABC (DIS -0.1%) would be the ability to lower content costs when contracts were up for negotiation. A beat-up Netflix is also starting to unfurl an entry point that might look enticing for the well-funded trio of owners.  [View news story]
    You require your authors to declare whether they have vested interests in stocks they write about - you should require same from these "sources" that you post rumors from - 2 days in a row now from same individual at Benzinga- both completely unvetted and unsourced
    BS
    Oct 26, 2012. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +13.2%) continues to drive higher fueled by renewed rumors Microsoft is in the hunt for the company. A quick exit now and an investor is back to where they were before the company's Q3 earnings bomb (I, II, III).  [View news story]
    This should be illegal to post ridiculous Rumours posted by same source 2 days in a row RE: acquisition of NFLX - there is no source referenced in either post by this individual and no idea what his motives are.

    This is why retail investor has left the market.
    There needs to be legal and fiscal liability for this type of blatant manipulation
    Oct 26, 2012. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After seeing Verizon report it sold just ~650K iPhone 5s in Q3 due to supply issues, Jefferies' Peter Misek thinks only 5M units may have been sold overall in the quarter - he previously believed sales of 8M-10M were possible. But Misek argues iPhone 4/4S sales will make up for any shortfall to his 26M-unit iPhone forecast. Meanwhile, Stifel notes the iPhone 5 is still back-ordered for 3 weeks at Verizon. Apple (AAPL -2.8%) is selling off along with many other tech large caps, and is down 13% from its Sep. 21 high. (earlier: I, II[View news story]
    Dear Editor - Apples policy is sales are recorded only when shipped - they then announced on their site (and it is still on there) that they "sold" 5 MM in first weekend. I doubt vey much that they then "shipped" (sold) no phones for the next 5 days to end of quarter.
    Oct 19, 2012. 04:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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