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BigJ1260

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  • Apple: Wait For A Lower Price, Or A China Mobile Deal [View article]
    BTW - disagree with your take that 4S owners will not upgrade

    4S trade ins and 2nd party sales are exploding as you can get $325 to $450 which pays for your upgrade to the 5 and your early term penalty
    Sep 15 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Wait For A Lower Price, Or A China Mobile Deal [View article]
    Adam
    Did you even do your own math against your analysis ?

    You stae that they may sell 60M iPhones in Q4 (i agree)
    You also quote the $15.34 EPS estimate at 20% growth

    Dude - forget the 1 week comp adjustment
    37m phones last year ($13.87) comped to 60m means an 89% increase which means EPS goes to $26 !

    Estimates wil go up - and they will still blow them away next qtr - do you think that besides iPhone minimum 50M units that they might just maybe sell a few more iPads, new iPods, new mini iPads and new Macs than they did last year ?
    Gets you to $22.50 very very conservatively which will blow stock thru the roof
    Sep 15 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Important iPhone 5 Release Details We're Ignoring [View article]
    Rocco back on

    tone seems to have mellowed a bit compared to last SA pieces and latest Street Apple tear downs

    Your statements Re: not regretting having not purchased the stock even though it has been on a tear and it is bcus you exercise caution and have seen others experience "bloodbaths" is patently ridiculous on its face - who could not in fact say that Re: any stock that has exploded based on growth and execution that negate all your blah blah blah negative trolling Re: Apple last year or so.

    You completely overstate and continue to grossly overstate the medium term risk. Stock is conservatively priced and has numerous catalysts set to drive value and price next 12 months.

    You have been wrong and continue to be wrong for quite awhile now. Sad part is that 2 years from now with stock at $1200 you could write same piece with same rationalizations and probably still with same motivations to get hits for another negative Apple piece.

    Whatever dude
    Sep 14 11:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Pricing Power? Questionable [View article]
    "Bagholders" - FUNNY !
    I hold a 450% return on APPL last 2 years on options
    sometime short and sometimes long- depending on price cycles and my "Position" on Apple, but LT the thesis is long for at least next 2 years.
    I have ST and LT thesis and follow them.

    You are correct - you have and have not had a Position as far as I can tell - which means "your position" is that you are very unsure where/why the stock will head next - so stop writing about it !!
    Or say that when you write

    Since you hold No Position - then you should take No Position
    You have nothing in "your bag" to risk - but empty words and failed negative thesis on Apple designed to exact replies

    Over and out until you back up your bait with action
    Jul 2 09:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Pricing Power? Questionable [View article]
    Gutone has now replaced Rocco in writing Neg. Articles on Apple trolling for clicks.

    I'll write a real response to your thesis when you show a short position in the stock - otherwise your pronouncements are just provocation to achieve replies by sounding the death knell of Apple over and over again with no action to back up your analysis. If the stock is set up so poorly, you should go all in and short it since it obviously has sooo many issues as you continue to write about each week.
    Jul 2 08:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My China Syndrome With Apple [View article]
    Well,

    We will just have to see you in January when you are wrong on each of these points.

    "Search Volume" as a metric is far too nebulous to have meaning

    iPads in Hong Kong is not ipads in China

    One of the reasons Apple is not $700 is all the negative press regardless of results because it gets ratings and in your case hits. Results will resolve all this by next January report and I would love to see you circle back then and look back to all your current takes on Apple.


    Meanwhile, no further comments or hits on your negative Apple articles - No one even reads your others
    Apr 26 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My China Syndrome With Apple [View article]
    Drives me nuts that yourself and other analysts are already attempting to use the slowdown in FY Q4 on iPhones to say that spells trouble for the company or the stock - Yes, sales will slow before the HUGE ramp up to iPhone 5 just as with 4 to 4S. This is normal for all product cycle refreshes - cars, TV's Pc's etc. = So what ??

    If you view the calendar year quarterly growth and trends in aggregate on iPhones instead of FY - they simply astound and will continue to do so. PERIOD

    Also, they did nots sell many iPads in China because they only have the 2's available as they cannot make enough of the new ones to open China yet. Mac's will explode with the refresh in June and iPods are of little consequence either way.

    Their only challenges on Iphone 5 and Ipads is if they will be able to make enough of them - not if they can sell them. What if they open China Telecom for Chinese New Year 2013 ? = Lookout

    I really hope you come back and write about the "disappointing" phone sales for the October earnings report - those postponed purchases only push into FY Q1 and then yourself and others will write next January report how you are "shocked and astounded" by the increase in FY Q1 2013 with the new phone. = Whatever

    Honestly, I think most of you simply write negative on Apple because you know it gets you more hits than anything else you write
    Apr 26 05:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel [View article]
    I like the authors enthusiasm, but there is no way they will hit those phone numbers - and phones are still what drives this monster..

    There was no accounting for or mention of the differential in weeks
    Q1 had 14 weeks of sales including thanksgiving and christmas as well as the extra (14th) week between christmas and new years which normally falls in Q2 and will not this next report.

    Just to comp apples to apples (so to speak)

    Q1 reported 37MM phones across 14 weeks which is roughly 2.65MM per week.The author is forecasting 39MM phones across 13 weeks or roughly 3MM phones per week which would be over a 13% increase in weekly sales vs last quarter !!

    - Sorry, that just ain't happening and this author loses a lot of credibility in not recognizing or explaining how/why he sees this happening. Addition of smaller China carriers will not accomplish this when domestic and all other international should significantly lag last quarter 4s Intro numbers.

    I am very long AAPL, and am not worried about this qtr. report which should be very good, more worried about guidance and results for next 2 quarters which most likely will not have the new iPhone included in sales numbers and people will wait again for Q4 iPhone 5 release and put off purchases and upgrades.
    Apr 16 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Analyst Views And Redefining Common Sense [View article]
    Man,

    Isn't everybody tired of the whole "Nothing Lasts Forever" argument which is really lazy and lacks any substantive basis other than the corollary of "What goes up, must come down eventually" - these are not even arguments, but rather obvious statements on the nature of the universe and stocks place poised against these laws of nature.

    Worst part is these are both an argument with no other side to argue against - I do not know of anyone on the Bull side that says Apple will go up forever or even in a straight line for remainder of year.

    Yes, there will probably be a pause and slide back as Q3 and possibly Q4 will include soft iPhone sales as everyone waits for the iPhone 5 release. But anyone who thinks the carriers are going to say no to Apple on subsidizing the 5 at same levels as the previous models is smoking some really good stuff.
    Apr 10 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Underestimating Apple: Analyst Consensus Plays Catch-Up [View article]
    How do you invest in Samsung ?
    Apr 2 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When The Music Stops [View article]
    Anyone writing articles on apple and utilizing the disclaimer " it can't go up forever" - please, please just stop.

    Makes any points thereafter completely meaningless and inane
    Silly way to discredit the bullish argument short or long term because guess what ?? - The author says that someday he or she will be right and someday it will move down ---eventually


    Really ? - whatever

    That is not an argument for action bull or bear but a statement about the universe we exist in
    Mar 13 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple To Unveil An 8GB iPad 2 With The iPad 3 [View article]
    They will grow share and margin just like they managed iPhone iterations to good - better - best pricing segmentation while growing margin through efficiencies of scalability with utilization of consistent platforms across each device

    8GB makes sense - the cloud allows you to store everything off device and download when needed
    Mar 1 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Does Apple Go From Here? [View article]
    I don't see a new iteration of apple TV (A box) coming

    The Mac was the first to take away the box and have a single aesthetically beautiful machine with an equally compelling interface and iOS.

    No one wants the stupid box - everyone just wants to hang a TV on a wall, turn it on and start telling it what to do in the most intuitive and effective manner.- Just like when you plug in a new Mac.

    That will be an Apple TV I think, otherwise no big bang, which Apple is known for.

    Content is a whole nother can or worms, but will play out the same whether you access it through a box or a TV from Apple. So why have a box ?
    Feb 3 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Longs: Are You Glad You Bought And Held? [View article]
    Interesting points to both sides Rocco

    This is exemplified in the fact that you still sold at your exit point - even though your thesis is that Apple is a long term hold.

    Inherently, you must then believe that it will push down to an entry point that allows you to trade back in ?

    I do both with Apple - hold some long term calls as well as buy calls 3 weeks or so before earnings and sell about half prior to earnings report. Can't think of a time this has not worked pretty well.

    The market does push this stock around a lot, although gaps could be less in 2012 vs. 2011 that had all the pushes and pulls related to Steve's health and the 4s not being the 5
    Jan 26 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Gearing Up To Go 'Thermonuclear' In 2012? [View article]
    see below
    4S already has long lines in China
    They still can't make them fast enough !
    The Momentum will only
    continuehttp://http://bit.ly/yimRGU)
    Jan 12 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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