jbonefish

Closing Update for Friday, August 7: Day Up, Week Up

bc earnings already restated nobody cares ... GE continues to raor and cripple my short lol

Will General Electric Doldrums Affect the Market?

GE is disconnected from the market. I like the thesis here but I think the S&P and GE can continue to diverge as long as the uncertainty remains over capitalization of GE Capital and potenial exposure to loan losses as unemployment rises. Others will be effected but as the markets continue to separate winners from losers there will be a theme for the losers ... and GE has all the markings.

GE Results Validate Theory: Severe Economic Contraction

I shorted it Thursday morning. My thinking is that no matter how high it went - it was merely riding a psychological wave that would crash when they reported earnings. As we move forward and the grim economic reality becomes apparent people will start focusing on GE's debt and portfolio of consumer debt again....


On Jul 17 12:06 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> GE is a good proxy for the economy. I nearly doubled my investment
> from the March lows but didn't want to be too greedy. I'll get back
> in between 7 and 8. If health care and cap and trade fail, we'll
> come out of recession sooner, but I agree we are looking at sluggish
> growth. I'm hedged against the chance of war with Iran and researching
> tax shelters. Interesting times.

Modeling Bank of America's Share Price

I think I get it and I like the fact that you adjusted for time lag. Have you established any trigger points in the relationship where you will take a long/short position? Otherwise, it is just math in hindsight ... clever as it may appear.

Feeling Bearish? Try a Short Index ETF (SH) on for Size

As with the rest of the world lately, you should point out that this is intended to return the DAILY inverse. A link to the myriad of articles on the risk would be beneficial for those not familiar how these work as a short term trading vehicle.

McDonald's' New Burger Is Another Reason to Love It

This offering isn't about making current loyal customers happy, it is about growth. While $4 seems like a premium option to someone who has been buying the $2 double cheeseburger, (as others have pointed out) it is a cheaper option to a $7-$9 casual dining burger.

Your equation would be:

Current customer - $2 ChBgr = $2 ChBgr
New Customer - $4 Angus Burger (higher margin) plus incremental revenue from the kiddies (current margins)

McDs will increase Rev and keep margins expanding or steady by slightly fragmenting the Chili's, Applebee's market and the occasional stray from In-N-Out, Five Guys, etc. I wonder what their unit volume estimates are for these 1/3 LBers?

I haven't tried one but as long as it is comparable it is great timing.


On Jul 05 10:55 AM Freya wrote:

> Lets see: Double cheeseburger and fries = $2, Angus Burger = $4.
>
>
> Toss in a deep Recession. You people are kidding me , right?

What Role Did Langone Play in Spitzer's Downfall?

Doesn't matter if he was set up. When you use your position to personally attack others - others who are also powerful - you better be living squeaky clean! The old addage regarding those who live in glass houses applies here for no other reason than Spitzer used every opportuity to tell us about the glass house in which he comfortably resided.

Dividend Analysis of General Electric

GE is a bohemoth but should be trading at a higher multiple. Unfortunately, the market gets bored with it and freaked out by the sheer market cap. I worked here from 2000 to 2006 coming out of college and the stock and options stunk for those years but one thing you come to appreciate is that GE will deliver earnings growth, increase the dividend, and push 20% ROE year after year. The cash is for M&A to boost the portfolio of businesses and provide accreditive earnings when the right opportunity presents itself (which could be around the corner in this market). It's amazing that this stock doesn't correlate more to treasuries - seems like a flight to safety is also US MegaCap and what is safer than decades of earnings growth and an aggressive culture of making your numbers with integrity.

Thornburg Mortgage's Results Show It Is Back on Track

Care to reconsider?

GE: Nuclear Growth Galore

It gives me a lot of confidence in the advice dispensed on this site that everyone was quick to catch these, er, 'oversights'.

Thanks for the quality check everyone!