johngonole

Dell: Not Ready to Call a Bottom

I recently sold my MSFT, DELL, and EBAY for a modest profit. I'm thinking that at some point this summer the DOW will drop back into the 7500 range as economist realize that the recovery will be flat at best for quite some time. Unemployment will have to improve before we go much higher than we are now.

On the otherhand, I think long term all three of the companies above are good long term picks even at current prices.

Three Stocks with a Margin of Safety

Well I may have negative 6 on my comment above but hey I made 20% or so on my positions. I'd rather have the money in this case than gain your favor.

Three Stocks with a Margin of Safety

The author and I must think a like. Over the last month I have established positions in EBAY, DELL, and MSFT. I think the pessimism over EBAY is overblown. EBAY is now on par with AMZN for me. While I used to purchase most of my items on AMZN I am now finding that EBAY usually has the lower priced. I've recently purchased a surround sound system on EBAY and my TV at AMZN. I think EBAY has a tremendous moat. They already make twice as much as AMZN and they don't even have to hold inventory. After I analyzed EBAY I just couldn't believe how great their metrics were. The business is easily scalable and highly profitable. It is a true market place. Little guys all over the world are finding their nitch and beating up the large companies with higher overhead. While lower oil prices should help EBAY be more competitive versus the bricks and mortar they are in a down trend due to the overall economy. Since EBAY makes a percentage they are also a good hedge for inflation. When all those newly printed dollars actually begin to circulate (that is when the velocity of money reverts to the mean) inflation will push prices upward and EBAY will likewise benefit.

EBAY will suffer as will all retailers while unemployment is rising. When looking at EBAY, DELL, and even MSFT one must think long term. Now if only Obama will cut the facisim crap everyone could relax and get back to doing the real work of the country.

Those who don't get it are scared because Obama has been telling them to be scared. Those who do get it are scared because of what Obama is promising those who don't get it. Thus everyone is scared except those who don't listen or care. Get it!

Dell Q4: Far Short of Estimates

Bought a position a few days ago. May buy more. The company has strong free cash flow and i expect that to stay high. I think they will use their cash flow more frugually and do things like pay down their debt and improve their current ratio.

I have established positions in DELL, MSFT, EBAY, AND ESV. I think the economy eventually is headed for hyperinflation and I expect all of these will benefit. In dell and msft's case inflation will probably make their products seem like a better deal increasing volume. In EBAY and ESV's case I expect their revenue will sour.