Buy And Sell Recommendation In The Fertilizer Sector [View article]
good day james. i am looking forward to you being correct. i sold all my shares before the fed announcement (or lack of one). and subsequently re-purchased TNH CF MOS AGU UAN on friday. if prices continue to fall, i will continue to buy.
numbers don't lie. TNH's dividend yield, p/e and debt/equity are good at these low prices. if you take into consideration potential growth, then these prices are excellent!
your recent advice stated in your 'market timing' article of september 15th is most relevant now. in particular :
"Acquiring a well-diversified portfolio of quality investments at low prices (high yields) usually requires making purchases during bear markets".
Despite massive plantings, productivity this year was weakened not just by adverse weather, but by a calculated decrease in fertilizer usage. After the 2007-2008 fertilizer price spike, farmers recognized that bumper crops could still be reaped without using as much fertilizers such as phosphate or nitrogen. That is, until 2011's reality hit, and farmers produced less, yet planted more. That in itself should rekindle heavy usage of fertilizer again after the 2009 plunge.
At the same time, though food/crop prices have soared (corn's up 69% since mid-2008, while wheat's up 11%), fertilizer prices haven't made that trip yet. In fact, nitrogen fertilizer prices are down 33% for the same time frame, while potash prices are 36% lower than in 2008. The implication is, since crop prices merit it, since it's affordable, and since the demand is outpacing the supply, it would behoove farms to ramp up production by ramping up usage of fertilizers.
How Far Can Current Rally Go? Factors To Consider For Next Week [View article]
....its a shame to waste a good fall in the market....so bought a bit of DOG at the end....(may be a bit early...but market was very optimistic this week).
this market is moving on 'RUMORS OF RUMORS'.....all talk on INTENDED plans, that MAY be implemented, that COULD work, in SOME time period.
james, thanks man....for keeping it focus on the bare essentials. all the best.
How Many Stocks Or Funds Should Your Portfolio Contain? [View article]
'An investor would not be better off doing anything but what they can understand, can live with and plays into their level of time and interest. Any, and I mean any, approach can work.'.
'A big part of what I do is figure out what to avoid'.
roger, i have been fighting up with this topic since i started this year.....and was feeling totally out of place because i feel comfortable with 6 to 8.....can survive up to 15, if i have to....but that is it.
thank you for this article. makes me quite comfortable with my handful of companies. i believe warren buffet had said that he likes concentrated holdings because it is easier to pick a few good companies....than several required under diversification.
Ecclesiastes 11:1-2 ' Ship your grain across the sea; after many days you may receive a return. Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land'.
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
being a non-american i try to avoid commenting on someone else policies.
what i do notice though, is the president is dependent on a divided congress to pass any plans he has. and the economy is also greatly influence by the fed, which suppose to be beyond political control.
with presidential elections due next year, i get the feeling that it will be difficult for the republican control of the house to pass anything (like improving employment) that will improve the presidential chance of being re-elected.
so until next american election, and with too many decision makers in europe to sort out their crisis - slim chance of world economies improving in the next 2 years. 2014 earliest for world economies stability.
in fact, i am also noting that BRIC countries are a bit quiet in the last few weeks, and if you throw in a natural disaster or two, and i have a feeling on upcoming food shortage........we are going to need a GPS and satellite system to navigate this market!
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
many many thanks. always appreciate you sharing your wisdom with us amateurs.
your reasons on EOD / PFF clearly shows that its not worth the risk at this point of time.
"My goal is to have a hedged portfolio with names specifically chosen to outperform the SP500".....sure seems a strategy not to lose your capital value, while gaining your dividends........( following your lead on this with agriculture and dividend stocks, then buy / sell inverse etfs as required short term).
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
as always todd, you always have a word in season.
i am looking to buy EOD and/or maybe PFF....any thoughts on these two?
also, with ETG, you said you will hedge with an inverse ETF S&P500....will you continuously do this as long as hold ETG? or buy and sell inverse ETF based on market conditions?
Debunking Dividend Agnostic Assumptions: Here's What Really Makes Income Investors Tick [View article]
Mrs Five Plus Investor,
i definitely don't want to get on your wrong side!....you call it as you see it!
from reading your articles and numerous comments, you have your views, and you support them, without any hidden agendas. and i appreciate that very much.
james 1:19 " So then, my beloved brethren, let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak, slow to wrath;"...........(this is for everyone including mr weinman).
MLPs Extremely Overvalued Based On Historical Relative Yield [View article]
"Time may not be right but recent drop feels right"
i do the average down thing myself.......but reaaal cautious now.....we may not be able to time the market......but a lot of negative stuff out there....so i am waiting for the market to retest the august 8th lows, before buying......maybe you should enjoy your holiday today, and see if it still feel right tomorrow.
luke 14:28 "For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it".
MLPs Extremely Overvalued Based On Historical Relative Yield [View article]
Hosea 4:6 "my people are destroyed from lack of knowledge".
sir, keep writing.
i am an amateur investor, may not always understand everything. but i do pick up enough to understand that your articles are informative and knowledgeable.
likewise, everyone has an opinion what to accept and what to reject.
(MLPs such as pipelines, i get the feeling that their dividends includes part of the original investment....because in later years, not enough cash to replace assets....hence share price will be reduced significantly).
gosh....i thank you so much for your article....i truly hope many readers read your article, and not just not buy, but also sell..... this way, i can buy more of VALE, at a cheaper price!.....it has the best fundamentals in any business....low debt...low p/e....etc....and the world will always need iron ore.
we all have views. just sharing mine. thanks for sharing yours. all the best.
Buy And Sell Recommendation In The Fertilizer Sector [View article]
numbers don't lie. TNH's dividend yield, p/e and debt/equity are good at these low prices. if you take into consideration potential growth, then these prices are excellent!
your recent advice stated in your 'market timing' article of september 15th is most relevant now. in particular :
"Acquiring a well-diversified portfolio of quality investments at low prices (high yields) usually requires making purchases during bear markets".
thanks for the reassurance. all the best.
Buy And Sell Recommendation In The Fertilizer Sector [View article]
http://bit.ly/rslltx
Despite massive plantings, productivity this year was weakened not just by adverse weather, but by a calculated decrease in fertilizer usage. After the 2007-2008 fertilizer price spike, farmers recognized that bumper crops could still be reaped without using as much fertilizers such as phosphate or nitrogen. That is, until 2011's reality hit, and farmers produced less, yet planted more. That in itself should rekindle heavy usage of fertilizer again after the 2009 plunge.
At the same time, though food/crop prices have soared (corn's up 69% since mid-2008, while wheat's up 11%), fertilizer prices haven't made that trip yet. In fact, nitrogen fertilizer prices are down 33% for the same time frame, while potash prices are 36% lower than in 2008. The implication is, since crop prices merit it, since it's affordable, and since the demand is outpacing the supply, it would behoove farms to ramp up production by ramping up usage of fertilizers.
Buy And Sell Recommendation In The Fertilizer Sector [View article]
just kiddin :)
Buy And Sell Recommendation In The Fertilizer Sector [View article]
thanks for posting my favorite topic.... already sold my TNH and started to accumulate UAN. getting a bit curious on BG and ADM.
all the best.
How Far Can Current Rally Go? Factors To Consider For Next Week [View article]
this market is moving on 'RUMORS OF RUMORS'.....all talk on INTENDED plans, that MAY be implemented, that COULD work, in SOME time period.
james, thanks man....for keeping it focus on the bare essentials. all the best.
How Many Stocks Or Funds Should Your Portfolio Contain? [View article]
'A big part of what I do is figure out what to avoid'.
roger, i have been fighting up with this topic since i started this year.....and was feeling totally out of place because i feel comfortable with 6 to 8.....can survive up to 15, if i have to....but that is it.
thank you for this article. makes me quite comfortable with my handful of companies. i believe warren buffet had said that he likes concentrated holdings because it is easier to pick a few good companies....than several required under diversification.
Ecclesiastes 11:1-2 ' Ship your grain across the sea; after many days you may receive a return. Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land'.
(i am heavy into agriculture as well)
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
what i do notice though, is the president is dependent on a divided congress to pass any plans he has. and the economy is also greatly influence by the fed, which suppose to be beyond political control.
with presidential elections due next year, i get the feeling that it will be difficult for the republican control of the house to pass anything (like improving employment) that will improve the presidential chance of being re-elected.
so until next american election, and with too many decision makers in europe to sort out their crisis - slim chance of world economies improving in the next 2 years. 2014 earliest for world economies stability.
in fact, i am also noting that BRIC countries are a bit quiet in the last few weeks, and if you throw in a natural disaster or two, and i have a feeling on upcoming food shortage........we are going to need a GPS and satellite system to navigate this market!
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
your reasons on EOD / PFF clearly shows that its not worth the risk at this point of time.
"My goal is to have a hedged portfolio with names specifically chosen to outperform the SP500".....sure seems a strategy not to lose your capital value, while gaining your dividends........( following your lead on this with agriculture and dividend stocks, then buy / sell inverse etfs as required short term).
all the best.
7 Closed-End Funds Under the Microscope [View article]
i am looking to buy EOD and/or maybe PFF....any thoughts on these two?
also, with ETG, you said you will hedge with an inverse ETF S&P500....will you continuously do this as long as hold ETG? or buy and sell inverse ETF based on market conditions?
thanks
Debunking Dividend Agnostic Assumptions: Here's What Really Makes Income Investors Tick [View article]
i definitely don't want to get on your wrong side!....you call it as you see it!
from reading your articles and numerous comments, you have your views, and you support them, without any hidden agendas. and i appreciate that very much.
james 1:19 " So then, my beloved brethren, let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak, slow to wrath;"...........(this is for everyone including mr weinman).
There's No Easy Way To Play The Current Market [View article]
MLPs Extremely Overvalued Based On Historical Relative Yield [View article]
i do the average down thing myself.......but reaaal cautious now.....we may not be able to time the market......but a lot of negative stuff out there....so i am waiting for the market to retest the august 8th lows, before buying......maybe you should enjoy your holiday today, and see if it still feel right tomorrow.
luke 14:28 "For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it".
all the best.
MLPs Extremely Overvalued Based On Historical Relative Yield [View article]
sir, keep writing.
i am an amateur investor, may not always understand everything. but i do pick up enough to understand that your articles are informative and knowledgeable.
likewise, everyone has an opinion what to accept and what to reject.
(MLPs such as pipelines, i get the feeling that their dividends includes part of the original investment....because in later years, not enough cash to replace assets....hence share price will be reduced significantly).
7 Reasons This September Should Terrify Investors [View article]
Why I'm Not Buying Vale [View article]
we all have views. just sharing mine. thanks for sharing yours. all the best.