For this website all you need to know about me is that: I am an interest rate junkie; Homer and Sylla's "A History of Interest Rates" is a touchstone. I have a passion for macro economics; William Greider's "Secrets of the Temple, How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country" is another touchstone. The first house that I built in 1978 sold for $28,000 that year and is assessed today, 12/9/2013, at $522,500. I got out of the housing development business in 2005. For more about me see www.gotothomas1.com
John M. Mason writes on current monetary and financial events. He is an entrepreneur and a writer. Current projects include a new banking institution, an Internet company, a private equity fund, two depository institutions and a community redevelopment fund. He formerly was on the faculty of the Finance Department, Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Mason has been President and CEO of two publicly traded financial institutions and the executive vice president and CFO of a third. He has also served as a special assistant to the secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in Washington, D. C. and as a senior economist within the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Mason has served on the boards of venture capital funds and other private equity funds. He has worked with young entrepreneurs, especially within the urban environment, starting or running companies primarily connected with Information Technology. Some of his new ventures are in the sustainable business and impact business space. .
Prudent Man is the founder and managing partner of a New York based investment management firm founded in 1995. Previous to its founding he was employed by several bulge-bracket Wall Street firms initially as a sell-side equity research analyst ultimately rising to a managerial position in the global equity division including its investment policy committee.
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base.
Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process.
In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance.
As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion. In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection.
In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as Head of Global Investment Research.
Currently, Jeff is published nationally at RealClearMarkets, ZeroHedge, Minyanville and Yahoo!Finance.
Jeff holds a FINRA Series 65 Investment Advisor License.
Robert Hauver, MBA, is a Registered Investment Advisor Representative. He publishes The Double Dividend Stock Alert, a monthly investment newsletter that features the best dividend stocks and option selling strategies for income investors.
TipRanks rates DoubleDividendStocks in the Top 10 of all financial bloggers.
The https://www.DoubleDividendStocks.com website also features High Dividend Stocks By Sector Tables, and Covered Calls & Cash Secured Puts Tables, a Dividend Stocks blog, and a a Stock Market News & Data page. 845-225-4094
I have been in and out of the stock market many times since the early eighties, each time moving my money into real estate. My background is with the wholesale and retail building supply industry giving me a inside look at such companies as GP and HD.
Current status working in sales for a Lead manufacturer which has given me a interest in the movement of commodities.
My name is Scott Sumner and I have taught economics at Bentley University for the past 27 years. I earned a BA in economics at Wisconsin and a PhD at Chicago. My research has been in the field of monetary economics, particularly the role of the gold standard in the Great Depression. I had just begun research on the relationship between cultural values and neoliberal reforms, when I got pulled back into monetary economics by the current crisis.
I obtained my CPA in 1990 and became a CFA charter holder in 2000. I consider myself an expert in Quantitative and Qualitative analysis and have extensive experience in Technical Analysis. I also have a deep interest in stock market history and hold degrees in Economics (BSBA) and Management Information Systems (MBA). I have been actively involved with investment analysis and investment management since 1985 but have been a student of investing since the 1960s. I owned my first individual stock position while still in high school. I am a student of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. I have achieved a uniquely diverse experience from multiple careers that has allowed me to develop a broad perspective enabling me to look at the big picture of macroeconomics all the way down to the retail unit or factory floor. In my youth I was in retail, then served in reconnaissance during my tours in Vietnam. I have been a blue collar, union worker in a factory and a manager in services, hospitality and transportation as well as a manager of professional staffs. I have more than 20 years of experience each in both public and private sectors. I have personal points of reference that many analysts will never have. I bring more to the table than just the theories and models I have studied or built. To understand more about my investing philosophy please visit my blog on my website.
The Curve Advisor was founded in 2011 by Joseph Choi. Mr. Choi was a senior proprietary trader in J.P. Morgan’s Global Currencies and Commodities Group. He was consistently profitable in trading Eurodollar butterflies over his trading career. He was one of the largest discretionary users of Eurodollar futures and options, trading well over 10 million contracts a year. Mr. Choi started the Curve Advisor newsletter to provide strategic commentary on the interest rate markets and discuss trade-specific market views on the Eurodollar curve. In 2016, he started an open-access web site as a resource for short term interest rate futures traders.
Time management is essential to monitoring a 47 position portfolio. My 1st comment concludes with "Rich-unck:xx hrs"; I uncheck from the article to avoid repetitive comments, nonsense, and (most) arguments. I extend another XX hrs when I respond to a question or comment...I also respond to all PMs.
BACKGROUND My journey as a self-directed investor (SDI) began in 1973, and resulted in financial independence at age 52, which also allowed me to retire from corporate life the following year (Feb 1995).
I have no special knowledge not attainable by others who also dedicate themselves to the study of the economy, market, and stocks...I could cease all portfolio management today, and place it with a professional manager; however, I enjoy the psychic and financial rewards. Alternatively, I could become a passive investor via mutual funds and/or index ETFs (those works too! ). With few exceptions, As a rule, Rich only discusses his IRA here--it is only a portion of his and Joyce’s investment assets.
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY If you ‘lived for today’ over the past 5 or 6 decades, you better invest in lottery tickets. The most probable path to a financially secure retirement is the product of an investment program (either active or passive) started when relatively young; living on less than all your after-tax income (saving means delayed gratification); and either self-directed or via professional management, adopting a sensible strategy suitable to age and comfort zone. There is wisdom in flexibility, diversification, and not being life-long wed to any strategy. It is appropriate to take greater risk for greater rewards (sensible growth stocks) when younger, as those are our lowest earnings years combined with our highest expense years--in the years between early investment and retirement, investments in solid growth companies can double 8 times or more.
There is time to adjust allocations to a more conservative strategy when closer to retirement. Never assume you have an information edge over the professionals. Time-in-the-market is your principle advantage. When/if you become interested in dividend stocks, never forget both price return and dividends compound, and price more so.
Financial independence is achieved when one has sufficient confidence his/her lifestyle will not change significantly, regardless of the potential depth or breadth of decline suffered by their portfolio--including a prolonged series of bear markets such as 1929-37. True, the recent 18-month bear market ending mid-2009, was deep--but also too brief to consider its lack of widespread dividend cuts to be as proof a portfolio of dividend-payers won't suffer income losses in a more prolonged decline (i.e., no portfolio is "dividend bulletproof").
The balance of this profile is lengthy, and likely not helpful to passive investors who simply go along for the ride, their portfolios bobbing up and down like flotsam in the ocean; their course always subject to the whims of winds, waves, and trends...THIS IS YOUR ONLY WARNING!
PORTFOLIO GOALS Now in my 70s, it’s no longer appropriate to engage in the growth strategies applied in wealth accumulation. As a more conservative investor, 100% of his portfolio consists of dividend-payers. 95% of positions have investment grade credit ratings (the lone exception is a REIT).This combination, along with having companies in 10 of the 11 S&P GICS sectors (none in Materials at this time) provide a measure of diversification. This IRA portfolio holds no bonds, though bonds and other investments are held elsewhere.
Maximizing total return and wealth preservation are mutually exclusive. A key observation: Having the capacity for risk is not the same as having the tolerance for it!
Rich’s objective is now a ‘smoother-ride’ that levels out the market’s peaks and valleys (limit losses, trim notable excess valuation). That smoother ride in an all-equity portfolio cannot be achieved without active management and continuous monitoring of positions--therefore TIME is an essential input to his portfolio management. Active management does not’ means frequent changes, as it is not unusual for a quarter or more to pass between a trimming or sale (nonetheless, when a company fundamentals change, or a mistake is made, corrective action is taken.)
STRATEGY SINCE 2008 Rich targets both legs of TOTAL RETURN (distributions + price change). His Growth & Income strategy often focuses on VALUE investing tactics applied to dividend-payers. Value investors seek out unpopular, companies most investors are avoiding (i.e., fundamentals have declined but credit rating is strong, BoD has implemented a rational recovery plan, and the dividend not in danger). Value investors seek to be paid to wait for other investors to recognize the stock’s value and assign it a greater share price. In any event, value stock or growth stock, Rich always seeks a ‘margin of safety’--no shares are bought at prices >FV, and his margin of safety is derived from dividends paid, price appreciation, and rising FV over time.
In all cases, value or growth, Rich selects well-established dividend-paying companies having a high-probability of growing earnings (growth of earnings is ESSENTIAL to growth of price and dividends). He tends to be flexible, forward looking, reactive to changing fundamentals, and willing to admit a mistake so action follows.
SDI is not easy, success is not assured, and in recent decades, advice from academics, and investment coaches, almost universally recommend index funds. Those NOT having the prerequisite time and interest are unlikely to develop the requisite skills for stock investing--thus the probability strongly suggests most newbies would be better served by indexing (Ben Graham wrote favorably of indexing). However, when done successfully, self-directed stock investing can offer rich psychic and financial rewards.
CORE PORTFOLIO Presently, +/-30 equities. Core holdings dominate at about 65% of total portfolio positions. Favored are traditional, large- and mid-cap, low-beta, best/near-best in class, institutional-owned, moaty, dividend-paying, value and growth stocks, having investment-grade debt ratings, and representing the consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, and telecom sectors.
OPPORTUNISTIC PORTFOLIO The remaining 15+ positions consist of equally well-known dividend-payers found among widely-owned cyclicals, such as financial, industrials, consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and energy sectors are sensitive to the economy. In an expanding economy, cyclicals typically grow their earnings (and dividends) faster than do the typically slower-growing core companies. But because the reverse is also true, in a contracting economy, these positions are intended to be heavily trimmed to preserve gains as the economy peaks and shows evidence of decline. Some are susceptible to quite significant price declines when Mr. Market assumes their will suffer reduced earnings, and sometimes dividend-freezes/cuts, in anticipation of those events.
Rich is sometimes fully-invested, but unlike some, observes no such rule. Building a large cash cushion at the front-end of a correction/bear market (-20%) provides the dry powder required to both cushion the market's decline, and also creates the cash required to purchase excellent companies at below FV prices (without having to sell a position he wants to keep!).
TRIMMING POSITIONS When positions in either portfolio become significantly overvalued, they are trimmed by 5-10%, and the proceeds applied to fairly valued companies before the (almost always) temporary gift of over-valuation reverts to the price mean. If the position continues to advance, and absent other information, the position will be trimmed again. Added benefits to selective trimming include (1) serves as a more sensible method of rebalancing (as opposed to automatic--professionals do not use such a meat cleaver); (2) reduces the position's remaining Capital at Risk (which may suggest room for additional shares within an otherwise full position), and (3) provides the necessary dry powder to buy other shares at FV or below.
OTHER INTERESTS As we age, the importance of family grows. Rich has long volunteered in his community; over the years has served with distinction as member/chair of a number of advisory committees. Assisting others on SA is also a source of satisfaction and fulfillment.
Finally, having been blessed by years of excellent investment performance, Joyce and Rich have long been avid world travelers, and have visited over 60 countries over a span of 30 years (his SA avatar reflects the Taj Mahal in his sun glasses). They reside in Michigan--for 9 months of beauty, bliss, and family, and thoroughly enjoy wintering in equally beautiful Naples FL--for 3 months of sunny warmth and relaxation.
Life is good--it's been an unbelievably awesome ride!
BA in philosophy and political economy. Small business owner/operator since 1978, now retired. Fixed income and consumer essentials equities investor. Sometimes real estate developer. I began studying money and monetary systems after the 1982 crash that plunged my home Province, Alberta, into a long and deep depression. The "arithmetic" focus of my monetary analysis follows from reading C.H. Douglas who began writing about monetary system defects in the early 1920s and who eventually invented his "social credit" monetary system that received a wide international airing during the 1930s Depression. Douglas's contemporary but not collaborator Irving Fisher is the best known of the American monetary reformers of that era. 2008 is 1929 all over again, so in late 2008 I discovered Seeking Alpha and began writing about our monetary system defects in the hope of raising monetary awareness and promoting the kinds of reforms that can prevent a repeat of the 1930s Depression.
An inveterate Fed watcher.
Note (under surveillance / censorship). My responses are not always posted.
Salmo trutta Comments (7094) |+ Follow
John, the #'s (which represent AD), for the 3rd qtr. are 2x that of the 2nd qtr. And that's without extrapolation and assuming Vt remains constant (& Vt will rise).
20 Jul 2016, 06:50 PM Edit/Delete
Thanks for your patience. Your comment is being reviewed by our moderators and will be posted shortly. For more information on moderation on Seeking Alpha click here. Time to posting (if at all), may be longer outside U.S. business hours and at times of high comment volume.
Charles Hugh Smith writes the Of Two Minds blog (www.oftwominds.com/blog.html) which covers an eclectic range of timely topics: finance, housing, Asia, energy, longterm trends, social issues, health/diet/fitness and sustainability. From its humble beginnings in May 2005, Of Two Minds now attracts some 200,000 visits a month.
Charles also contributes to AOL's Daily Finance site (www.dailyfinance.com) and has written eight books, most recently "Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation" (2009) which is available in a free version on his blog.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
Acting Man has been named after the title of the first chapter of Ludwig von Mises' book "Human Action" - the best treatise on economics ever written. The blog's main author is Pater Tenebrarum, an independent analyst who has been involved with financial markets for 34 years and is writing economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy. Acting Man presents articles on the markets and the economy, a mixture of commentary on current events as well as economic theory and history, mainly from an Austrian School of Economics viewpoint. As more authors have joined the site, we have begun to broaden our palette a bit, but our orientation remains the same: pro-free market, anti-state, pro peace.
Ben S. Bernanke is a Distinguished Fellow in Residence with the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. From February 2006 through January 2014, he was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Bernanke also served as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.
Before his appointment as Chairman, Dr. Bernanke was Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, from June 2005 to January 2006. He had already served the Federal Reserve System in several roles. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2002 to 2005; a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia (1987-89), Boston (1989-90), and New York (1990-91, 1994-96); and a member of the Academic Advisory Panel at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1990-2002).
From 1994 to 1996, Dr. Bernanke was the Class of 1926 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He was the Howard Harrison and Gabrielle Snyder Beck Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and Chair of the Economics Department at the university from 1996 to 2002. Dr. Bernanke had been a Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton since 1985.
Before arriving at Princeton, Dr. Bernanke was an Associate Professor of Economics (1983-85) and an Assistant Professor of Economics (1979-83) at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. His teaching career also included serving as a Visiting Professor of Economics at New York University (1993) and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1989-90).
Dr. Bernanke has published many articles on a wide variety of economic issues, including monetary policy and macroeconomics, and he is the author of several scholarly books and two textbooks. He has held a Guggenheim Fellowship and a Sloan Fellowship, and he is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Dr. Bernanke served as the Director of the Monetary Economics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and as a member of the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. In July 2001, he was appointed Editor of the American Economic Review. Dr. Bernanke's work with civic and professional groups includes having served two terms as a member of the Montgomery Township (N.J.) Board of Education.
Dr. Bernanke was born in December 1953 in Augusta, Georgia, and grew up in Dillon, South Carolina. He received a B.A. in economics in 1975 from Harvard University (summa cum laude) and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Dr. Bernanke is married and has two children.
J. Bradford DeLong is a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, chair of its political economy major, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and was in the Clinton administration a deputy assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury. You can learn more about his website (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/about_this_website.html/), visit his home page (http://delong.typepad.com/main/), visit his principal weblog (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj).
I am engaged in trading Asian emerging market currencies and formerly the accountant for and a staff member of a local non profit business engaged in community service.
Please understand, the views I express are my own and are not intended to influence any positions other than my own and for our business. I have a degree in business management with an emphasis in economics.
Formerly enlisted in USAF Air Defense, both ballistic missile and aerospace defense, including joint service counter narcotics surveillance and deployments under imminent danger.
I was a partner in a small business, now a retired saver being punished by the central bank.
Bob McTeer is a Distinguished Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), covering macro-economic issues, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, tax and education policy. NCPA is a nonprofit, nonpartisan market-oriented public policy institute headquartered in Dallas, Texas, with offices in Washington, D.C. See www.ncpa.org.
Prior to joining the NCPA in January 2007, Bob was Chancellor of the Texas A&M University System from November 4, 2004 through November 22, 2006. The Texas A&M University System is composed of 9 universities, 7 state agencies and a statewide health science center. The system has approximately 25,000 employees and budgets totaling $2.5 billion. Its universities have approximately 102,000 students, including about 45,000 at its flagship, Texas A&M University in College Station.
Before becoming Chancellor of the Texas A&M University System, Bob had a 36-year career with the Federal Reserve System, including 14 years as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in the 1970s, Bob taught economics as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Richmond and Virginia Commonwealth University. While he ran the Richmond Fed’s Baltimore Branch in the 1980s, Bob taught two classes per semester in the evening program of The Johns Hopkins University.
Bob got his B.B.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Georgia and taught there for two years before joining the Fed in 1968. His graduate education was financed by a National Defense Education Act (NDEA) fellowship. He holds an honorary doctorate in the Humane Letters from Austin College.
Bob serves on the Boards of Directors the Westwood Holdings Group, and Refocus Group. He is a former member of the Board of Overseers of UGA’s Terry College of Business, where he was named Distinguished Alumnus in 1991. He is past president of the Association of Private Enterprise Education, a national association of free enterprise scholars and others who advocate market solutions to public policy problems, and a former board member of the National Council on Economic Education. Bob was featured as a Texas Legend in Business in 2004 by the Texas Cable News Network.
As a Fed policymaker, Bob gained a national reputation as an independent voice, or maverick, dissenting from the Alan Greenspan majority twice in 1999 and once in 2002.
His dissents and his outspoken views and plain talk got him the labels “Lone Star Loner” and “The Lonesome Dove.” He says he’s been called worse.
Bob’s free-market views in general and his vigorous support of free-trade in particular, gave the Dallas Fed its reputation during his tenure as “The Free-Enterprise Fed.” Bob is a CNBC contributor. He has written numerous opinion pieces for the Wall Street Journal and other publications and has spoken worldwide.
Bob’s poetry and vignettes have been featured twice on the Dallas Community News Network. You may find these and other articles and speeches on www.BobMcTeer.com.
Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Oct 2016): 46% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),16% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 10% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 6% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.07x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 6% per year during the same period.
Timothy Taylor is the managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota, which can be read free on-line courtesy of the American Economic Association, author of The Instant Economist: Everything You Need to Know About How the Economy Works, published January 2012 by Penguin Books, author of Principles of Economics: Economics and the Economy, a introductory college textbook available from Textbook Media, Inc. (third edition published in 2014), and lecturer for several courses from The Teaching Company including Unexpected Economics, Economics: An Introduction, America and the New Global Economy.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
I've traded options and futures for about five years. I also consult for determining strategic and tactical allocations for a variety of investors, and have done so for eight years through my company, Radiant Financial Solutions. It is far more common for me to invest using ETFs, closed end or open end mutual funds rather than dealing in individual securities. My credentials include CFA, Master in Financial Engineering as well as Applied Economics from University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. I currently live with my wife and two kids in Scottsdale, Arizona. We enjoy hiking, travel, cooking, and hockey.
Ted Waller is a private investor who bought his first stock at age 13 (GTE) and has over 50 years of investing experience. His focus is on deep value and low risk. Acquiring wealth is a slow incremental process that requires setting goals, adherence to principles, patience, and flexibility.
I have thirty four years experience investing as an individual, as an adviser to trustees of a son's Guardianship Trust, as co-trustee of a Special Needs Trust, as sole trustee of a supplemental needs trust for my sister, and previously assisting parents to manage a substantial portfolio. In viewing investments I use a blended approach of fundamental analysis, technical analysis, hedging and incorporating an economic perspective. I have a BS in Economics and a BA with a major in Chemistry, both from the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. I spent most of my career as an industrial process systems engineer and recently several years as a part-time mortgage banker.
I spent eight years at Bank of America in New York (1978-86) covering Wall Street, then moved to Moody's Investors Service where I worked for 22 years, covering banks, sovereigns and corporates. I chaired the Credit Policy Committee for four years. I retired in 2007 as vice chairman.
PLEASE FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @christophermah3
My philosophy: I am a libertarian, a market monetarist, an admirer of Fisher, Friedman and Minsky. I believe in a strong safety net and strict regulation of the financial system. I support most of Dodd-Frank. I think that the world's #1 problem today is inadequate inflation and nominal growth. I believe that the Fed should have two mandates: financial stability, and a nominal output target. I follow Scott Sumner and the other market monetarists. I respect Krugman as a brilliant economist who happens to be a leftist.
In addition to publishing at Seeking Alpha, I have my own financial blog at http://capitalismandfredom.blogspot.com
With advanced degrees in both economics and finance, I place great deal of importance upon macreconomic developments and fundamental analyses of industries and individual companies
In typical markets, I seek out investment themes which offer compelling reasons to invest in a group of like companies. Within a theme group, I look for earnings consistency, growth, market leadership, competitive advantage and reasonable valuations as measured by PEG ratios and other metrics.
I like companies that dominate their economic space and which enjoy what Buffet refers to as a durable competitive advantage and Morningstar refers to as an economic moat. I try to remained disciplined investor but will frequently yield to the lure of a pure momentum plays.
To assist in identifying current themes, I spend an inordinate amount of time reading and subscribe to IBD and use Zack's and StockCharts.com to filter, screen and rank investment candidates. Four or more technical measures may be used to time entry and exit points by understanding underlying momentum, strength and directionality.