retrace

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

I agree, for now just enjoy the ride and stay vigilant, we will need the money from the stock markets gain to pay the coming tax increases, direct or hidden.


On Aug 05 09:27 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> Well-reasoned comparison. I agree that history rhymes. That's why
> the failure to consider the elephant in the room--government intervention--makes
> the chart comparisons of historical interest only. The actions of
> the government in 1930 could hardly be more different from the actions
> of 2009. The fact is, we don't know what the outcome of all of the
> government programs will be 1, 3, and 5 years down the road. We've
> never been down this road before.

Emerging Markets ETFs Soar Despite Gloom

Brazil mulls its own bailout as it heads to G20

www.marketwatch.com/ne...

Emerging Markets ETFs Soar Despite Gloom

Whether the emerging market ETF's hold up at this point in time is another question, to much dirty laundry left to be done.

Buffet (Berkshire) seems to be moving towards worldwide companys.

Based on the fact that Buffet invests with a long term philosophy, it looks like he has decided that a U.S. recovery is going to be a very long time coming with the reducing of positions in U.S. companys, banks, home improvements and autos.

But Buffet can afford to be early and wait...............


www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Percentages of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages

But the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average is still rather bleak.

S&P
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$SPXA200R&p=D&...

NYSE
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NYA200R&p=D&...

The Hindenburg Omen: Crash Signal In Play

Ex15:26
these are from 1986 to 2005
scroll down about 1/2 way

www.safehaven.com/show...

here is another from Robert McHugh

https://technicalindicatorinde...

The Hindenburg Omen: Crash Signal In Play

Hindenburg omens
June of 2007 and again October of 07

........omens............
6-13*(1st)...dow 13,482.35
6-21*(2nd)...dow 13,545.84
6-22*(3rd)...dow 13,360.26
7-11*(4th)...dow 13,577.87
7-18*(5th)...dow 13,918.22
7-19............dow 14,000.41.....high +3.8421
7-20*(6th)...dow 13,851.08
7-23*(7th)...dow 13,943.42
7-24*(8th)...dow 13,716.95
8-08*(9th)...dow 13,657.86
8-09*(10th)...dow 13,270.68
8-15.............dow 12861.47
8-16.............dow 12,845.78.....low -8.9918%

October
.......10-9....dow 14,164.53...new high
#1...10-16..dow..13,91...
#2...10-17.........13,...
#3...10-18.........13,...
.......10-19.........1...
.......10-22.........1...
#4...10-25.........13,...
.......10-31.........1...
.......11-01.........1...
.......11-02.........1...
.......11-08.........1...
.......11-09.........1...
.......11-14.........1...
.......11-15.........1...

Potash Setting Up to Rally?

Yes life is good with POT,
I have held a basket of agri's since Aug. 07 and added to on strength
CZZ 8/07, added twice
MOO 9/07, added once
MON 9/07, added once
POT 9/07, added three times
DBA 1/08 added once

For now I see no reason's for agri to slow in any meaningful way.
POT appears to have upside potential of 250+
MON 160+

Backroom Bear Stearns Deal Exposed

Many have criticized the Feds actions with regard to Bear Stearns.

For once it would be nice to see those that criticize put forth an
"alternative plan" that lends credence to their argument against the Fed's actions.

If allowing Bear Stearns to fail is the alternative, than please give a hypothetical outcome of allowing the failure, based on the financial instability of the world markets on Mar. 15-16 2008.

Profit from Visa - the Biggest IPO in U.S. History

Still watching,
below is a chart of MA (mastercard), as can be seen it was a couple of months in before it started to move. MA also IPOed under far more favorable market conditions.

"shares were priced at $44 each for the initial offering to those selected investors. But even if you had been able to buy the shares at the midpoint of the initial range, $39.50, that implies a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on annualized fourth-quarter earnings, according to Francis Gaskins, editor of IPOdesktop, who recently revised his valuation the week of March 3. That's slightly below the 20.5 P-E of MasterCard (MA) as of early March.

If the stock stays well above $39.50 and the P-E exceeds MasterCard's, you may find that you're paying a rich price.

During Visa's first day of trading, shares were trading just under $60. That is 27.3 times higher than the company's most recent quarterly earnings of 55 cents a share, annualized to $2.20. That's higher than the 23.5 times Mastercard was trading on its most recent annualized quarterly earnings."

above excerpt taken from usatoday article,
www.usatoday.com/money...

MA chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

V chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Profit from Visa - the Biggest IPO in U.S. History

Visa's online road show can be found here
www.ipohome.com/common...

click on
View the company's online roadshow

Profit from Visa - the Biggest IPO in U.S. History

I for one am interested in Visa and have been awaiting it's debut.
There financial filings can be found on the Hoovers site.

Joseph Saunders was named executive chairman to oversee its transition to a public company. Saunders has a great track record, he headed the turnaround of card portfolios at the former FleetBoston Financial and Providian, and is/has left his post as president of credit-card services at WaMu.

I held Providian stock from the low two's and watched intently as Sauders turn the company that many had said would/could not survive into a 20.00 dollar stock at which time it was sold at near that pps. He knows the card business.

But with that being said there are certainly more important factors to consider, as both calvino and gokou3 eluded to.

One of the big concerns I have is the timing of the IPO with the financial markets as they are.

I have followed and bought several IPO's and many retrace their initial rise in pps within the first few weeks, before resuming upward movement "if" they are going to.
Therefore, at least for me there is time to see what the overall market sentiment is before making a decision.

Master card initially hit the street at 40+- and went to 48+ in nine days, but a month after the initial it could be bought for 43+.
Google also did similar, hitting the street around 100, rising to 108+- than retracing and thirteen days after the initial it could be bought for 99+-.

IMO, patience gives one time to see how the street accepts an IPO, and hey if you miss it there will always be more.
Don't let emotions cloud judgment, were not here to love them, just to make money from them.
JMO