retrace's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/98187/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/153919-dow-target-6-617-october-25-2009-here-is-why?source=feed#comment-616085 616085

On Aug 05 09:27 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> Well-reasoned comparison. I agree that history rhymes. That's why
> the failure to consider the elephant in the room--government intervention--makes
> the chart comparisons of historical interest only. The actions of
> the government in 1930 could hardly be more different from the actions
> of 2009. The fact is, we don't know what the outcome of all of the
> government programs will be 1, 3, and 5 years down the road. We've
> never been down this road before.]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:48:04 -0400

On Aug 05 09:27 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> Well-reasoned comparison. I agree that history rhymes. That's why
> the failure to consider the elephant in the room--government intervention--makes
> the chart comparisons of historical interest only. The actions of
> the government in 1930 could hardly be more different from the actions
> of 2009. The fact is, we don't know what the outcome of all of the
> government programs will be 1, 3, and 5 years down the road. We've
> never been down this road before.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106063-emerging-markets-etfs-soar-despite-gloom?source=feed#comment-306690 306690
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 11:20:29 -0500
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106063-emerging-markets-etfs-soar-despite-gloom?source=feed#comment-306670 306670
Buffet (Berkshire) seems to be moving towards worldwide companys.

Based on the fact that Buffet invests with a long term philosophy, it looks like he has decided that a U.S. recovery is going to be a very long time coming with the reducing of positions in U.S. companys, banks, home improvements and autos.

But Buffet can afford to be early and wait...............


www.bloomberg.com/apps...
]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 10:30:59 -0500
Buffet (Berkshire) seems to be moving towards worldwide companys.

Based on the fact that Buffet invests with a long term philosophy, it looks like he has decided that a U.S. recovery is going to be a very long time coming with the reducing of positions in U.S. companys, banks, home improvements and autos.

But Buffet can afford to be early and wait...............


www.bloomberg.com/apps...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93282-percentages-of-stocks-above-50-day-moving-averages?source=feed#comment-242147 242147
S&P
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$SPXA200R&p=D&...

NYSE
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NYA200R&p=D&...

]]> Sat, 30 Aug 2008 10:52:34 -0400
S&P
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$SPXA200R&p=D&...

NYSE
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$NYA200R&p=D&...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82172-the-hindenburg-omen-crash-signal-in-play?source=feed#comment-190475 190475 these are from 1986 to 2005
scroll down about 1/2 way

www.safehaven.com/show...

here is another from Robert McHugh

www.technicalindicator...]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 19:27:02 -0400 these are from 1986 to 2005
scroll down about 1/2 way

www.safehaven.com/show...

here is another from Robert McHugh

www.technicalindicator...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82172-the-hindenburg-omen-crash-signal-in-play?source=feed#comment-189691 189691 June of 2007 and again October of 07

........omens............
6-13*(1st)...dow 13,482.35
6-21*(2nd)...dow 13,545.84
6-22*(3rd)...dow 13,360.26
7-11*(4th)...dow 13,577.87
7-18*(5th)...dow 13,918.22
7-19............dow 14,000.41.....high +3.8421
7-20*(6th)...dow 13,851.08
7-23*(7th)...dow 13,943.42
7-24*(8th)...dow 13,716.95
8-08*(9th)...dow 13,657.86
8-09*(10th)...dow 13,270.68
8-15.............dow 12861.47
8-16.............dow 12,845.78.....low -8.9918%

October
.......10-9....dow 14,164.53...new high
#1...10-16..dow..13,91...
#2...10-17.........13,...
#3...10-18.........13,...
.......10-19.........1...
.......10-22.........1...
#4...10-25.........13,...
.......10-31.........1...
.......11-01.........1...
.......11-02.........1...
.......11-08.........1...
.......11-09.........1...
.......11-14.........1...
.......11-15.........1...

]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 11:07:06 -0400 June of 2007 and again October of 07

........omens............
6-13*(1st)...dow 13,482.35
6-21*(2nd)...dow 13,545.84
6-22*(3rd)...dow 13,360.26
7-11*(4th)...dow 13,577.87
7-18*(5th)...dow 13,918.22
7-19............dow 14,000.41.....high +3.8421
7-20*(6th)...dow 13,851.08
7-23*(7th)...dow 13,943.42
7-24*(8th)...dow 13,716.95
8-08*(9th)...dow 13,657.86
8-09*(10th)...dow 13,270.68
8-15.............dow 12861.47
8-16.............dow 12,845.78.....low -8.9918%

October
.......10-9....dow 14,164.53...new high
#1...10-16..dow..13,91...
#2...10-17.........13,...
#3...10-18.........13,...
.......10-19.........1...
.......10-22.........1...
#4...10-25.........13,...
.......10-31.........1...
.......11-01.........1...
.......11-02.........1...
.......11-08.........1...
.......11-09.........1...
.......11-14.........1...
.......11-15.........1...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80254-potash-setting-up-to-rally?source=feed#comment-180851 180851 I have held a basket of agri's since Aug. 07 and added to on strength
CZZ 8/07, added twice
MOO 9/07, added once
MON 9/07, added once
POT 9/07, added three times
DBA 1/08 added once

For now I see no reason's for agri to slow in any meaningful way.
POT appears to have upside potential of 250+
MON 160+

]]> Sat, 07 Jun 2008 10:19:59 -0400 I have held a basket of agri's since Aug. 07 and added to on strength
CZZ 8/07, added twice
MOO 9/07, added once
MON 9/07, added once
POT 9/07, added three times
DBA 1/08 added once

For now I see no reason's for agri to slow in any meaningful way.
POT appears to have upside potential of 250+
MON 160+

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71268-backroom-bear-stearns-deal-exposed?source=feed#comment-145867 145867
For once it would be nice to see those that criticize put forth an
"alternative plan" that lends credence to their argument against the Fed's actions.

If allowing Bear Stearns to fail is the alternative, than please give a hypothetical outcome of allowing the failure, based on the financial instability of the world markets on Mar. 15-16 2008.
]]> Sun, 06 Apr 2008 08:48:10 -0400
For once it would be nice to see those that criticize put forth an
"alternative plan" that lends credence to their argument against the Fed's actions.

If allowing Bear Stearns to fail is the alternative, than please give a hypothetical outcome of allowing the failure, based on the financial instability of the world markets on Mar. 15-16 2008.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66714-profit-from-visa-the-biggest-ipo-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-133351 133351 below is a chart of MA (mastercard), as can be seen it was a couple of months in before it started to move. MA also IPOed under far more favorable market conditions.

"shares were priced at $44 each for the initial offering to those selected investors. But even if you had been able to buy the shares at the midpoint of the initial range, $39.50, that implies a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on annualized fourth-quarter earnings, according to Francis Gaskins, editor of IPOdesktop, who recently revised his valuation the week of March 3. That's slightly below the 20.5 P-E of MasterCard (MA) as of early March.

If the stock stays well above $39.50 and the P-E exceeds MasterCard's, you may find that you're paying a rich price.

During Visa's first day of trading, shares were trading just under $60. That is 27.3 times higher than the company's most recent quarterly earnings of 55 cents a share, annualized to $2.20. That's higher than the 23.5 times Mastercard was trading on its most recent annualized quarterly earnings."

above excerpt taken from usatoday article,
www.usatoday.com/money...

MA chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

V chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...



]]> Sat, 29 Mar 2008 09:02:08 -0400 below is a chart of MA (mastercard), as can be seen it was a couple of months in before it started to move. MA also IPOed under far more favorable market conditions.

"shares were priced at $44 each for the initial offering to those selected investors. But even if you had been able to buy the shares at the midpoint of the initial range, $39.50, that implies a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on annualized fourth-quarter earnings, according to Francis Gaskins, editor of IPOdesktop, who recently revised his valuation the week of March 3. That's slightly below the 20.5 P-E of MasterCard (MA) as of early March.

If the stock stays well above $39.50 and the P-E exceeds MasterCard's, you may find that you're paying a rich price.

During Visa's first day of trading, shares were trading just under $60. That is 27.3 times higher than the company's most recent quarterly earnings of 55 cents a share, annualized to $2.20. That's higher than the 23.5 times Mastercard was trading on its most recent annualized quarterly earnings."

above excerpt taken from usatoday article,
www.usatoday.com/money...

MA chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

V chart,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66714-profit-from-visa-the-biggest-ipo-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-122765 122765 www.ipohome.com/common...

click on
View the company's online roadshow ]]> Thu, 06 Mar 2008 00:35:31 -0500 www.ipohome.com/common...

click on
View the company's online roadshow ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66714-profit-from-visa-the-biggest-ipo-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-121373 121373 There financial filings can be found on the Hoovers site.

Joseph Saunders was named executive chairman to oversee its transition to a public company. Saunders has a great track record, he headed the turnaround of card portfolios at the former FleetBoston Financial and Providian, and is/has left his post as president of credit-card services at WaMu.

I held Providian stock from the low two's and watched intently as Sauders turn the company that many had said would/could not survive into a 20.00 dollar stock at which time it was sold at near that pps. He knows the card business.

But with that being said there are certainly more important factors to consider, as both calvino and gokou3 eluded to.

One of the big concerns I have is the timing of the IPO with the financial markets as they are.

I have followed and bought several IPO's and many retrace their initial rise in pps within the first few weeks, before resuming upward movement "if" they are going to.
Therefore, at least for me there is time to see what the overall market sentiment is before making a decision.

Master card initially hit the street at 40+- and went to 48+ in nine days, but a month after the initial it could be bought for 43+.
Google also did similar, hitting the street around 100, rising to 108+- than retracing and thirteen days after the initial it could be bought for 99+-.

IMO, patience gives one time to see how the street accepts an IPO, and hey if you miss it there will always be more.
Don't let emotions cloud judgment, were not here to love them, just to make money from them.
JMO ]]> Mon, 03 Mar 2008 04:14:09 -0500 There financial filings can be found on the Hoovers site.

Joseph Saunders was named executive chairman to oversee its transition to a public company. Saunders has a great track record, he headed the turnaround of card portfolios at the former FleetBoston Financial and Providian, and is/has left his post as president of credit-card services at WaMu.

I held Providian stock from the low two's and watched intently as Sauders turn the company that many had said would/could not survive into a 20.00 dollar stock at which time it was sold at near that pps. He knows the card business.

But with that being said there are certainly more important factors to consider, as both calvino and gokou3 eluded to.

One of the big concerns I have is the timing of the IPO with the financial markets as they are.

I have followed and bought several IPO's and many retrace their initial rise in pps within the first few weeks, before resuming upward movement "if" they are going to.
Therefore, at least for me there is time to see what the overall market sentiment is before making a decision.

Master card initially hit the street at 40+- and went to 48+ in nine days, but a month after the initial it could be bought for 43+.
Google also did similar, hitting the street around 100, rising to 108+- than retracing and thirteen days after the initial it could be bought for 99+-.

IMO, patience gives one time to see how the street accepts an IPO, and hey if you miss it there will always be more.
Don't let emotions cloud judgment, were not here to love them, just to make money from them.
JMO ]]>