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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Sears Holdings updates on Q2 performance [View news story]
    I'm so glad that some people use someone else's net worth as a barometer of infallibility instead of viewing something objectively.

    The SHLD saga is one of a decision (a financier deciding he could run a retailer) made with hubris and tremendously bad timing. You would think that having seen Berkowitz and Lampert buy the stock when it was over -100 points- higher would clue one in, but hey, those guys have mansions, so there's no way they could have made a giant mistake.
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings updates on Q2 performance [View news story]
    Every SHLD shareholder should be required to go into a Sears store once a month until they realize this company is in a death spiral that no real estate or online "strategy" will be able to fix. The only thing keeping this thing going to single-digits now is the fact that over half the float is already short. Lampert will leave with more money that most because of his financial engineering, but even he will leave this experience with a giant hickey, and there will be no saving the average shareholder or Berkowitz.
    Aug 3, 2015. 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to test referral program [View news story]
    You miss my point. The bull thesis (and stock price) of TSLA is entirely tied to their EV moving way, way beyond a niche car for local urban driving or something for car cult aficionados who can afford a second car. A car that can drive from St. Louis to Nashville without stopping. Or can recharge in the time it takes to fill a tank of gas. For $30k.
    I'm not saying it's 'impossible' for all that to happen some day, but there's nothing known today that indicates that day is just around the corner. And the stock is priced like it is. For now, I believe it's a 'hot car' just like the Miata was, and like the new Corvette is. But the tide is pulling back soon.
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to test referral program [View news story]
    These comment sections are so entertaining.

    Remember when Mazda Miatas first came out and "everybody" wanted one? People were paying crazy amounts over sticker. And then, demand was satiated, and today, I imagine whatever version of the Miata they're making now can be had at a discount to sticker. Why? Because the seller needs to do that to move the metal.
    Bulls can put whatever spin they want on this, but they should recognize this program for what it is: It amounts to a 'rebate'....an 'incentive'....And you don't do that if you are looking on the horizon and seeing your biggest problem is that you are supply constrained.
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:14 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: The Little Engine That Tries [View article]
    This article would be great...if it had been written 5 years ago. The growth in SSS refutes the notion that RAD has failed to right the ship. The purchase of the PBM also demonstrates that they have their eye on the ball.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:37 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors hit by UBS downgrade [View news story]
    Yes, indeed, the entire raison d'etre for the analyst's report was to artificially drive down the price of TSLA so their clients could gain a lower entry point. And all the "X Files" were true and it was the Pope in the grassy knoll with a high powered rifle. Sheesh.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:33 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is A Risky Stock [View article]
    it's not for the faint of heart...but the implied vol on NFLX options is high, ergo, you pay more to buy puts...but get paid more to sell calls...My options are 805 strike and expire in a week...I tend to play in shorter, out of the money strikes, and am in front of a screen all day with alerts sent to me if it trades over a certain level.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is A Risky Stock [View article]
    ...except that Icahn got dragged into the NFLX trade by his son, and he'd never diss-tweet an AAPL trading at 9x estimated earnings and hold on to one trading at 472x.
    Jul 9, 2015. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is A Risky Stock [View article]
    For what it's worth, I'm not a NFLX bull. I'm actually short July calls which I sold after Icahn exited.

    But it's not a "fact" that NFLX hasn't raised prices because they can't without losing a significant number of subs. That's conjecture on your part. What could be equallly true is that NFLX is foregoing raising prices near-term as a strategic move to fortify their position as the dominant player in the space with folks like AMZN potentially knocking on their door.

    And please learn the difference between "lose" and "loose".
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is A Risky Stock [View article]
    I agree that NFLX is overvalued in a traditional sense. I think their sub growth will slow, and content costs are only going to go up. The days of them acquiring low hanging content fruit are over, as networks and content owners shift from looking at revenues from NFLX as extra gravy, to viewing NFLX as a competitor who wants to eat their lunch.
    Having said that, you miss a very big potential factor, and that is the marginal utility of return of the typical NFLX customer. Simply put, how many customers who are paying $9 a month today would abandon the service if the fee were raised from $9 to $12? I venture to say far fewer than the 33% increase in per customer revenues.
    Anything marginal churn, say 5%, would amount to a giant revenue surge, and no doubt cause the stock to rally big-time. This is a huge risk to any short thesis.
    Jul 8, 2015. 04:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parody Of Errors That Led To Grexit [View article]
    Exactly. Unless the author of the article is Norm Crosby. ;-D
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Valuation: The Transformation [View article]
    I'm a bear, but to be fair, today was the ex-date on the Seritage Growth Properties warrants (currently trading at 4.65).
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Valuation: The Transformation [View article]
    ....pay no attention to that man behind the curtain ;-D
    Jun 2, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mizuho Makes Great Case For Rite Aid And Express Scripts Tie-Up [View article]
    I'm not on the FTC (or speaking for the author), but neither institution seems dominant enough in their respective industries to consider their union anti-competitive enough to stop a prospective merger. The author is most spot-on when it comes to looking at the Price-to-sales number as key to why anyone would want RAD. Folks focused on their debt load are not paying attention to the very healthy overall SSS growth.
    May 29, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    So....it was going to go to $1 because of the CEO. And you wrote the last article in the midst of the CEO getting canned. Wouldn't that have been the time to say, "Hey, they're punting the CEO, time to buy!"?
    Interesting that you choose to point to his stock sales as his being "stupid" when he stated the reasons (to fund his new company) and ignore the fact that he held onto enough shares to remain it's largest non-institutional holder. But don't let the facts get in the way of your thesis.
    You point to the drop to $8 as a validation of your thesis, and I point to the fact that the drop took place over weeks, and you say, "What's your point?" And all this on a stock that has historically shown a great amount of volatility.
    Please continue to break your arm patting yourself on the back as being some sort of RTRX hero for the stock dropping from $11 to $8 in the wake of your piece, but your supersensitivity to criticism and your consdescending fashion ("You're extremely naive"/"Can you not put 2 + 2 together?"/"Why are these points so difficult to grasp?") show a lack of objectivity that has no place on SA. Now, I'm done wasting my time.
    May 28, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
309 Comments
686 Likes