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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Solazyme Repositions Up The Value Chain Amidst Moema's Setback [View article]
    A perfect example of how a seemingly great idea, explained in great detail with quixotic fervor....can fall on its face. I'm long and hugely underwater, and I threw some more cash in @ 3.80, but candidly expect this to be a "threw good money after bad" story. Wanna believe in Mr. Quon's optimism, but candidly, his credibility on the SZYM story has been decimated, as these guys have failed to execute miserably.
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:21 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn talks up EMC, calls Amazon a bubble stock [View news story]
    ..Unless you remember that Icahn owns a ton of RIG. And lost a bundle on WCI Communities. All these guys have their losers, Icahn included.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon.com Have As Many As 1 Million Fire Phones Sitting In Storage? [View article]
    Thanks. The key to my comfort on that trade ultimately was when they hired the CEO who was the turnaround artist with a stellar record. Having said that, it was equal parts luck, as it was touch and go there for a while...But....I also bought WCI Communities back around that time, when Icahn took a stake. I like to remember that investment whenever all these guys are talking about Icahn (or Lampert and Berkowitz with SHLD) and how they walk on water. WCI went BR, and I took a hickey, as Icahn got his a$$ kicked on that one, as I expect owners of SHLD will. I like to remember my losers as much or more than my winners, as the losers are the ones that teach you. Or should.
    Oct 31, 2014. 09:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon.com Have As Many As 1 Million Fire Phones Sitting In Storage? [View article]
    In days of yore, it used to be that this "I'm going to hold this stock forever" attitude would not be considered stupid. Used to be. People said that about IBM in the 70's and 80's, and more currently, GE. But while IBM's had a good run since the early 90's, it also had a decade when it was by and large, dead money. GE's a great company. But there is no Tree That Grows To The Sky. And if you bought GE 10 years ago, or pretty much anytime from '04 to when it got pummeled in '08 (along with most everything else), you'd still be under water. As a customer of AMZN, I am in awe of what they've accomplished in a lot of ways, but not so much that I confuse a great company with a great stock. Guys like Gary will continually console themselves with the feeling they've gotten by having caught a winner and had a good ride, while forgetting that holding a stock like AMZN @ $400 (assuming LT cap gains) is essentiallly the same decision as BUYING that stock at $400. Some call it "playing with house money", but if you have a gain, that's a faulty premise. The gain is there-- it's YOUR money now.
    During the Dark Days, I picked up 10,000 shares of Sunrise Senior Living just over $1 as it faced BR. Ultimately it survived, and got bought out @ $14. On a percentage basis, one of my best trades ever. But if it had not gotten bought, and gone from $14 to $5 or $7, I wouldn't have spent my days pumping the stock when it was $14 and then scolding others on SA by bragging that I'd bought it at $1.
    Oct 30, 2014. 05:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon.com Have As Many As 1 Million Fire Phones Sitting In Storage? [View article]
    2014 to date: SPX +7%
    AMZN -25%
    Ya gotta love it...the stock's dropped one HUNDRED points this year, and the guy still thinks in terms of where he bought it years ago as a meaningful measure of performance. LOL, indeed.
    Oct 30, 2014. 04:02 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Telling The Truth? Elon Musk Or Wards Auto? [View article]
    ...seriously...I like reading Paulo's stuff, but I think he'd be the first to tell you that he had no expectations that this (or pretty much any other article he or someone else here writes) has the power to significantly move the stock price of TSLA or any other stock that isn't some biotech microcap. We're all just a bunch of goombas on here. The point is to debate ideas, hopefully learn a thing or two, and then execute a trade based on an idea.
    As for AMZN, Paulo was in early on the trade, but his estimates on revenue growth (and lack of earnings) have been spot on. And in a year when the SPX is up +7%, AMZN's down 25%, so it's not like being a bear this year on AMZN has been a bad trade.
    Disclosure: I'm long puts on AMZN and TSLA. And nobody who matters cares. :-D
    Oct 29, 2014. 01:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Sears Short Squeeze Flies In The Face Of Logic [View article]
    Anyone who relies on a several years old presentation from Fairholme does so at his own peril...Aside from the bullet point of Sears having all the liquidity it needs, which is laughable now that they've been forced to go the the lender of last resort (Eddie), take a look at the slide which showcases The Team...including D'Ambrosio (CEO), Don Eames (SVP Retail), Margaret Gramann (SVP Sales) Paul Walsh (VP/GM Commerce Services) and last but not least, David Lukes, President of Real Estate Development. Yes, REAL ESTATE, which is the Magic Bullet that's going to save the day.
    What do all of these people heralded in the Berkowitz presentation have in common? THEY NO LONGER WORK AT SEARS.
    What do you think that is telling you?
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Layoffs Top 6,000, Closing Over 110 Outlets [View article]
    It was a bet on real estate, and stripping out and selling other assets like Kenmore, LE, Craftman, etc.

    Only problem: Things changed. Real estate values plummeted, and beyond in a cyclical fashion. There just isn't a line of sub-lessees clamoring to pay top dollar (or even low dollar) for the vast majority of the real estate Sears has because there's much more chaff than wheat.

    Online grew, which also didn't help, but the bottom line is Sears retail got outplayed and is now a nag 30 lengths behind in the backstretch. Eddie's whipping that horse as much as he can, but even his financial acumen can't fix this situation. So, he's going to position himself to be a creditor to try and salvage what he can. I don't know how he intends to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, but I do believe that holders of SHLD common dreaming of a giant real estate windfall fixing everything are whistling through the graveyard.
    Oct 23, 2014. 02:15 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramey Rebuttal: Herbalife Is Going To $0 [View article]
    I'm neutral on HLF's probable outcome, but will just say that relying on billionaires to never be wrong is a dangerous strategy, regardless of what side you're on.
    Ackmann got his arse kicked on JCP. Icahn lost hundreds of millions on WCI before it went bankrupt. And no one can convince me that he went long HLF for any other reason than a desire to tweak Ackmann and a recognition of a very large, public short position. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out of the trade by the end of the year.
    Oct 23, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    Days to cover is an estimate of how many trading days it would take to cover a short based upon the average daily trading volume of the stock.
    E.G.: if there are 1mm shares short, and the average daily trading volume is 200,000 shares, then your "days to cover" would be 5.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    that's the first thing you've said in the last year that makes sense.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    didn't mean to diss the guy's call...my "point" is that given the fundamentals of the situation, one would be well advised to know when earnings are coming out, and should consider reversing the trade before then.
    The outstanding short interest of SHLD is well known. So is the unrelenting blood-letting and loss of revenues.
    Full disclosure: Shorted at 34 via long puts, covered at 28 via long calls for just this situation. Will let it rally, hopefully a lot, and then will reset trade on long puts, as I don't believe a short squeeze or lollipop and rainbow dreams of real estate monetiziation can ultimately redeem this company.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    ...be sure to revisit after SHLD reports earnings on 11/21
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    I don't know yow much you own, but saying SHLD and BRK in the same sentence strikes me as crazy. I believe you are going to take a huge hickey with SHLD.
    The author's point about the huge short being prone to a squeeze is legitimate, but that assumes there is anything in the underlying fundamentals, retail biz or real estate valuation-wise, to justify someone buying the shares. The ONLY reason to buy these shares is for a short squeeze. And that on its own is a horrible reason to go-- or stay-- long.
    As for the rights offering, I am reminded of that phrase from the 60's, "What if they had a war and nobody came?"...They had no interested buyers in Sears Canada, so now they're trying to raise money by selling rights to shareholders...and STILL its traction has been deminimus. That should tell you something. Please find me an example of monetization (real estate, Canada, whatever) in the past year that has, upon execution, been anywhere NEAR the original estimate of its value. Ain't gonna happen.
    I learned my lesson the hard way about billionaires and coat-tailing with Paul Allen (CHTR) and even Carl Icahn (WCIC). Don't make the same mistake I did.
    Oct 17, 2014. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On The Story At Sears Holdings [View article]
    ...yes, because his JCP trade worked out so well.
    Still flat MSF?
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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