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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Losses mount at Sears Holdings [View news story]
    ..the problem is I don't hear anyone talking about Sears' OUT-performing stores. This still feels like a slow-motion-death-spiral to me. And Eddie saying, "This is not acceptable" won't change a thing. Another commenter somewhere said he is selling planks from a sinking ship, and I think that about says it all. If Berkowitz throws in the towel, this stock is down 20pts in a hurry.
    Aug 21 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. VirnetX: The Federal Circuit Will Affirm Judge Davis [View article]
    People who care are those who are long or short VHC....and, apparently you, if you bothered to click the link to this article, and bothered posting a comment on it. No one ever said it was Roe V Wade..but any judgment anywhere near $368mm, appeal or not, will impact the stock price of a stock with a current market cap of $788mm and short interest of over 42%. This is Seeking Alpha, perhaps you got lost on the way to the USA Today website?
    Aug 13 04:44 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGM Resorts: Why The Odds Are Against This Casino [View article]
    Forgetting about bank debt, the coupons on the successive bonds rolling off in the next 3 years are as follows:
    4.25% (4/15)
    6.625% (7/15)
    6.875% (4//16)
    7.50% (6/16)
    10% (11/16)
    7.625% (1/17)
    The longest maturity listed here in Jan '17 is trading north of $110-00. THAT'S A YIELD OF 3.20%.
    Total debt -just from these issues- is over $4.8 ~billion~.
    Even forgetting about the possibility of an asset sale of something like Crystals, every one of these bonds rolling off will be replaced by much lower cost debt. If we stay in an economy that is improving in fits and starts, rates will stay down in the relatively low range they've been in, and this will allow MGM to improve their bottom line considerably.

    If rates rise, that will be due to a sense of an improving economy, which will only -help- things like REVPAR and gaming revenues at their properties. As another poster pointed out, the "What are they going to do with that debt?" issue is really more one for Caesars.
    Aug 8 09:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGM Resorts: Why The Odds Are Against This Casino [View article]
    This thesis would hold a lot more water but for the fact that MGM's debt cost has been falling. The combination of lower nominal rates and declining spreads, along with a return to LV Strip activity make MGM uniquely positioned to benefit greatly as they reduce leverage. Every bond or term loan that comes due is being replaced with lower cost debt- just look at the dollar prices of the currently outstanding debt they have to figure out how much more will drop to their bottom line once that debt is rolled (or paid down).

    They have a Macau presence and no one is better positioned to dominate the LV market with properties from the NYNY type to Bellagio.
    It is probably fair to say that the large gains of the past couple years will be hard to replicate, but it seems to me the debt fear story is one for the rear-view mirror, absent a return to a recessionary environment of several years ago.
    Aug 7 03:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    I think this is the first reasoned bullish post on AMZN backed by detailed, legitimate reasoning I've seen in the last year or two. I disagree with the conclusion, because even if they dominate AWS, I can't see the growth in this area making up for the lack of profitability and slowing growth in the other areas. But this is at least an informed observation, something sadly lacking from most bull theorems on this site.
    Aug 4 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    Dude...nobody disputes AMZN is a great company...the issue is where the company's stock should be trading based upon its current earnings (or lack thereof) and more importantly, its prospective earnings, even if one does optimistic extrapolating out over the next 5-10 years.

    Put another way, I own a nice home, and I expect its value to rise over the next ten years, but someone would be crazy to pay $10mm for it, even if Jeff Bezos lived there.

    Paulo has been on the wrong side of the trade, but he at least presents cogent reasons (e.g., income statement, balance sheet, competitive landscape via AWS, etc) that go beyond simply cheerleading for a company that has seen its price rise due to momo and revenue growth. And judging by the market, more are slowly coming around to more critical thought about what AMZN's proper valuation should be.
    Jul 28 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    I don't understand it...I see an article from Paulo but I don't see any condescending you-don't-get-it "LOL" comments from Gary....what gives? Did I miss something in the news?
    Jul 25 09:34 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    ...so...what is the best guess right now as to timing of the outcome?
    Jul 8 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I'm Not Buying The Norway Nonsense [View article]
    Yes, I have thought of solar. How many cities are being run by solar power now? What is the overall percentage of homes that will be run by solar in 5yrs?
    What were those predictions 5yrs ago for today? That question actually plays nicely into the TSLA story. Back in May 2008, FSLR was trading north of $300, with followers just as ardent as many TSLA bulls are today.
    Today, FSLR is trading @ $69.
    Jul 3 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I'm Not Buying The Norway Nonsense [View article]
    BTW...I'm not short TSLA. I'm long puts, and short near expiry, out of the money calls. And in the bigger picture, news flash: Nothing written on this site is written by players who have enough of a position to really impact TSLA price, so who cares?
    But since we're on the subject, in reading this and other comments, I pick up this emotional reaction to the notion of bears and/or people being short the stock. And I wonder: Why do some people consider it OK for longs to come on here and tout their longs, but get practically offended when bears come on here and say why they're short or hate a valuation?
    If I was a long who had no worries, I'd actually revel in the thought of a short interest of 30% of float, knowing full well that at some point these people will have to cover, sending the stock to the moon in the squeeze.
    I don't get the diss to Paulo either. The guy doesn't rant, he quotes real numbers and draws his own conclusions, which you can agree or disagree with. If they are selling 500k cars three years from now, the bulls can light cigars with $100 bills and do their happy dance. But if the giga-factory isn't built with money that didn't materialize, or shareholders have been diluted like crazy, or Gen3 is pushed out to 2020, etc etc., there is a very real risk for a violent drop in the TSLA share price.
    Jul 3 11:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I'm Not Buying The Norway Nonsense [View article]
    What is the average per capita income in China vs Norway? OK, forget about that for a minute. In a world where states like California already face "brown out" periods from electric demand, and limited choices for additional power generation (more coal, anyone? How about we build a new nuclear plant? No? Ooops), where will we get the additional needed power from the grid if everyone in the world converted to a TSLA/EV tomorrow? OK, forget about that for a minute.

    But, let's stay on point- The "demand constrained" vs. "production constrained" needs to be looked at in FULL. Yes, perhaps right now, TSLA is production constrained. But the curtain the bulls don't really want to peek behind too hard is this: What if, tomorrow, TSLA could produce 100,000 cars? Would they be still be production constrained? I think not. Along with other bears, I think there's a point of demand saturation that is way below what current valuation dictates. Devotees are free to disagree, but there is no margin for error at prices this lofty.
    Jul 3 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commerce Bancshares: Avoid This 6% Yield [View article]
    Look at the loss/writedown history of CBSH vs the larger institutions you reference- there's no comparison, and to judge them by S&P ratings is simplistic. Named 10th best bank in America by Forbes back in Dec 2013. They are a regional/super-regional, so it makes no sense to compare them to a JPM, etc. This shop doesn't have anywhere the risk profile of the others you compare- there's no "London Whale" stories, and all you have to do is look at their performance during "the troubles" of '07-'09 etc. 6% may be too low a yield to bite on at this stage in the interest rate cycle, but to reach for a JPM or whatever for just another 25bps or so is a horrible risk/return proposition.
    Jun 30 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly [View article]
    Interesting...For all your posts, you're always strangely reticient about posting the rest of us on things like purchase/sale date, strike and expiration. From what I can see, all of these posts seem to come post-facto...In any case, from 6/2 to 6/18, the SHLD close differential was $0.19. Some trade.
    Long Jan $33 puts. Zero cost basis from previous expired short calls.
    Short July $33 puts.
    Jun 19 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly [View article]
    ...says the man who said a week or so ago he bought calls?
    Jun 18 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors confirms open source philosophy [View news story]
    This is tacit admission that TSLA does not have the capital to burn for years to achieve the mass market critical mass they need to get bigger/sooner acceptance for EV. He is therefor inviting the rest of the industry to do that favor for him, in the hopes that they will carry him over the hump, and solve problems like getting giga factories built and having charging stations on every corner. He thinks if he can get them to do that, when the dust settles he will sell more cars, while giving up market share he never would have been able to achieve anyway because he doesn't have unlimited capital or the ability to displace an entire entrenched industry in the next 5 years.
    Jun 12 02:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
188 Comments
335 Likes