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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Rite Aid - Opportunities For Future Growth [View article]
    Look at the price to sales vs its peers...that is the metric...Long 25k shrs in mid-$2s....and not selling til 12+ earliest.
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad's largest shareholder starts proxy fight to oust CEO [View news story]
    Good doctors do not necessarily make for good CEOs. Berger has failed at his job to deliver shareholder value regardless of the science. Denner will extricate shareholder value once in control. This was never going to be a stand-alone company in the long term. Even Berger knows that, as he's been buying 25,000 more shares regularly- he knows the writing is on the wall.
    Feb 20, 2015. 06:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Will Probably Be Rated Junk [View article]
    You're not serious, are you? Too many words, not enough pictures! ;-D
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Take On Amazon.com's Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    He gets strangely quiet when the stock goes from $400 to $290, or from $340 to $290, but you can always count on a smug know-it-all quip when it pops...still down 15% from a year ago, with the SPX +8.6%...That's a swing of over 23%....LOL.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats by $0.28, misses on revenue [View news story]
    From Tech Crunch: "Last year, Amazon reported $25.59 billion in revenue, and earnings per share of $0.51. Today’s release represents a 14.6 percent year over year increase for revenue, and a 11.8 percent decline for earnings."
    All relevant measures are done on a YOY basis. Revenue growth is slowing.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats by $0.28, misses on revenue [View news story]
    This is the beginning of the tipping point...Revenue growth is great...except for a company that many were saying would still be doing 20%...so the revenue mega-growth story is fading away...which leaves the "just wait till they decide to be profitable" story, which, in the biggest quarter they have every year, was lower than last year. It will be interesting to see how the analysts parse that.
    Long Jan16 250 puts, short Feb15 200 puts...and probably selling calls and higher strike puts after tomorrow's rally.
    Jan 29, 2015. 04:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARIAD: The Worst May Not Be Over [View article]
    Top sellers per Bloomberg with last filing date
    FRANKLIN RESOURCES -5,081,427 12/31/14
    FMR LLC 9,620,942 -3,759,106 09/30/14
    RENAISSANCE 1,252,681 -3,147,300 09/30/14
    AQR CAPITAL 1,443,714 -2,439,116 09/30/14
    There are twelve....twelve..that have ADDED at least 1mm shares to their positions as of the 9/30/14 filing date...Note that Fidelity sold 3.7mm shares but STILL OWNS 9.6mm shares. Franklin is the only holder of significant size who's exited their position.
    This is just a flat-out illinformed article.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:27 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Likely To Never Make A Profit [View article]
    I'm not sure where you got your $5.2B in debt from, but it's woefully understated- AMZN issued $6B more in public debt just last month, and has $9B in public debt outstanding now (and that doesn't included bank debt). Of course they have assets too, but that $5.2 number seems off the mark- Per Bloomberg, they have over $15B in accounts payable, almost $7B in other short term liabilities, and almost $7.5B in total long term liabilities.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid reworks credit facility [View news story]
    RAD has already had their "look into the abyss" moment a few years ago...Revenues are growing, and more importantly SSS and margins with their remodeled/repurposed stores are growing. The winds of leverage are blowing their way too- e.g., Their 8%s of 8/20 are partially callable, and as of this August, the make-whole provision on the call will go away. Anybody here think they're going to have to pay 8% to roll those funds?
    Jan 15, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Bidders Can Bring You High Return: Otsuka To Acquire Avanir [View article]
    ...so I guess it's safe to say we won't see any higher bids? ;-D
    There went a few bucks on some Feb calls...oh well, I was in @$4.50 and out @ $14, so I won't complain.
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon up 3.1% following Citi upgrade [View news story]
    ..the thought crossed my mind- any possible hit I would take covering the 200s on a massive sell-off will be more than made up for by the huge pick up in the $250s via both the ITM basis and the time value on the Jan16s. In the meantime, I've lowered my cost basis, and even in a worst case scenario of covering, I make enough money to buy a couple mid-tier BMWs ;-D
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon up 3.1% following Citi upgrade [View news story]
    All these gripes against analysts are misplaced. I'd be willing to bet 99% of the people who hold these 'conspiracy theories' about how these analysts have sold their souls to garner underwriting revenues for their firms haven't even bothered to read their research reports. It is quite unfair to impugn the integrity of every analyst who is bullish on AMZN. These guys have their reasons.
    Having said that, there is nothing wrong with disagreeing with them, challenging their assumptions, or, as guys like Pablo have done, digging into the financials and pointing out the day of reckoning which the numbers are pointing to. The question is (as always) one of timing. Bears in too early while the market rallied got their butts kicked, while bulls gloated as they mistook that rally for validation. As the saying goes, "Everybody's a genius in a bull market".
    But the price action yesterday should be telling those bulls something- a rally to $301 that ended the day at $294 is saying the tide may be turning, and more are looking to "sell the rally" versus "buy the dips".
    Long Jan16 $250 puts. Short Feb15 $200 puts.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon up 3.1% following Citi upgrade [View news story]
    Forget Tambor, AMZN just won a bidding war to have a TV show starring Jane Fonda; she's in such demand on the heels of "Georgia Rule" and "The Monster In-Law"...
    Long Jan16 $ 250 puts bought when AMZN was $340. Trade ITM and almost fully paid for now with OTM short calls that have expired. But...holding.
    Jan 13, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Nephew: Acquisition Speculation, Cheap Valuations And Strong Fundamentals [View article]
    According to Zacks, the cooling off period keeping Stryker from making a bid ended on November 28th. This article says "this week"....so....Which is it?
    Dec 29, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy In On MGM Resorts' Good Hand [View article]
    Unless I missed it- what is the author's estimate of the reduction in debt cost as these 2015 maturities are rolled? It seems to me there are on-going (unbudgeted) savings from every debt issue that comes due...
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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