wrynot

wrynot
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Learning From The Start Portfolio: Adding Amazon  [View article]
    Amazed that (unless I missed one), not one commenter posted on the inane policy of the poster limiting stock purchases to companies that trade lower than $600.
    In this digital age, how could anyone (bull or bear) give any credibility to an "analysis" which prefaces something as archaic as the cost per share as a filter on value? Preposterous.
    Jan 18, 2016. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Shkreli's Arrest Mean For KaloBios' Share Price?  [View article]
    I wonder if Katy Perry will come visit him in jail?
    Dec 17, 2015. 08:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Biotech Hit Its AOL-Time Moment?  [View article]
    I've read some of your other articles and found some interesting and well thought out. This one just isn't one of them, and for being a former(?) journalist, you're the one who seems to be demonstrating a pretty thin skin here.

    This may be a top for biotech, but the AOL/Time Warner acquisition just is the wrong horse to hitch that wagon analogy to.

    At the time, the TWX/AOL deal was valued at about $162 billion (in year 2000 dollars). AOL's most recent annual earnings at that time were $762mm. That was a takeout premium of roughly 212x. TWO-HUNDRED-TWELVE-TIMES TRAILING TWELVE EARNINGS. Sorry for the all-caps, but seriously.

    At today's close, AGN's trading at 20x trailing twelve. You can adjust earnings, or raise the price, but the valuation is nowhere near as stratospheric as the AOL deal.

    Will biotech tank? Maybe. But just on the basis of valuation, and cash flows, the AGN/AOL comparison doesn't even qualify as being tenuous.
    Dec 9, 2015. 04:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Biotech Hit Its AOL-Time Moment?  [View article]
    Wrong-headed comparison, unless you think that Allergan's products will go the way of AOL's popularity. AGN is not AOL or MySpace.
    Dec 9, 2015. 11:09 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Let's Let The Data Do The Talking  [View article]
    Assuming this was directed at me, I was less "blaming" him than I was pointing out that there is a responsibility to admit one got a call entirely wrong, and reconsider whether you have enough competence to be posting articles on biotech on Seeking Alpha. Saying stuff like "that's the nature of biotech" or "you win some, you lose some" is too flippant a response to recommending a stock just before it loses over 80% of its market cap. I was already long THLD before the article, and I can take my lumps, so there's no blame to the author per se. I just found his altruistic excuse-making rationalization in the wake of his incredibly bad call off-putting.
    Dec 9, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Let's Let The Data Do The Talking  [View article]
    That's all well and good, but your article posited that this company was likely to be successful in their endeavors, and you were decidedly, massively wrong. You may be proud of your altruistic intentions, but the fact is, your recommended investment got its arse kicked by over 80% before the body of your article was cold. Absent an apology to those who took your piece as an informed recommendation, you should at least cease to post such articles, and leave your investment musings to yourself.
    Dec 8, 2015. 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Let's Let The Data Do The Talking  [View article]
    We have a new leader in the "Worst Timed Seeking Alpha Bullish Article" contest.
    Dec 7, 2015. 10:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Let's Let The Data Do The Talking  [View article]
    What is ETA for Phase 3 results?
    Dec 4, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant - Why Bill Ackman Is Scared  [View article]
    VRX may be going to zero, but GS liquidation had nothing to do with where they think the stock price is going.
    It was a margin loan, and once the stock below "X" price, they were obligated to sell it per the margin agreement. Indeed, even if they "thought" the stock was going to recover, they would have been obligated to sell the stock to meet the margin call. Same thing applies to any individual investor who buys stock on margin in his/her personal account and then has the market decline on 'em.
    Nov 9, 2015. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Controversy Regarding Ex-CEO Shkreli And Drug Price Gouging Could Imperil Retrophin's Business Model  [View article]
    While BRB makes some good points, VMan wins this in my view. BRB wraps himself in a selective time frame and, while he was far from alone, refuses to admit that peeps who followed his energy picks would've gotten crushed. Timing DOES matter. Wrapping oneself in Icahn's flag is no excuse either- let's not forget Icahn also had his WCI and others that don't get mentioned. I don't know where RTRX is going, but some tweets from Hillary don't make law, even if they may rock the market. And it's obvious that whether he's ultimately right or wrong, VMan knows a helluva lot more of the details about the health care industry.
    Oct 24, 2015. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Double Standard  [View article]
    Anyone happen to have the outstanding figure for TSLA's sold vs. leased? I know on the latter, TSLA's on the hook for some residual value guarantee. Ain't nobody that's gonna tell me that things like today's CR reversal can't impact that liability.
    Oct 21, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Double Standard  [View article]
    This is where that ole "priced to perfection" adage kicks in.
    Shame on CR for scoring the car so highly and treating the reliability factor as something they could get to later.
    Oct 20, 2015. 06:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk: Apple hires the engineers we reject  [View news story]
    Your "college shootings" reference may be seen by some as clever, but it is a stretch as an analogy and is insensitive.
    Oct 10, 2015. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad Pharmaceuticals Appears To Be On The Brink Of Bankruptcy  [View article]
    Your article wasn't lame because you're a bear. Your article was lame because it didn't address anything beyond the most cursory facts as they relate to the company. There are a gazillion biotechs out there that aren't cash flowing. If you'd gone into details like the potential market/other uses for Inclusig (or lack thereof), reasons why you think Brigatinib will fail, or how Denner's large position and track record is meaningless, it's doubtful you would have gotten such grief. Everyone on here knows that Ariad is a higher risk position. Your thesis was weak. If you're going to go swimming in the deep end of the pool, you'll need a stronger argument to avoid all the criticism you've received.
    Oct 5, 2015. 10:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn thinking of upping Apple stake; Cook states enterprise sales hit $25B  [View news story]
    The inexorable movement towards fewer outstanding shares (via buybacks with free cashflow) alone will assure that the stock goes up eventually, though maybe not as fast as some bulls would like, especially if the macro market remains dour or tentative.
    Short covering won't do that though-- only 1.6% of outstanding float is short, less than 2 days volume to cover.
    Sep 30, 2015. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
336 Comments
815 Likes