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wrynot

wrynot
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  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    I really chafe at posts like this, which seem to fault SA and Pro writers for, egad- wanting to make some money- and heaven forbid, maybe a lot of money. To be clear, I'm not a Pro participant, or a contributor. I come here to see ideas, some are good, some are a lot less than good. As far as I'm concerned I think it's a sometime valuable forum for people to exchange ideas. What I don't get is an attitude that seems to think guys like Chris should think up an idea, put in the work to explain his view, and be required to give it to someone for free. This mindset with the ole "1%" cliche feeds into a class warfare attitude that isn't healthy. Rather than criticize guys like DeMuth, I would suggest you put in your own work, start writing articles that people find valuable, and become a Pro writer yourself, and cease whining about other people getting paid for providing a service.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:18 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    It may be. As may AMZN, who is prolific at throwing gazillions at projects with no regard for profit margins. But NFLX has a huge lead/first in advantage and AMZN's efforts thus far have been less than stellar in this space. But watch out for AAPL, which among the three U.S. The only one who has a strong brand and also knows how to enter a segment with a notion of making money. AMZN is not far off from a capital raise, so they should have bigger fish to fry, but that won't stop Bezos.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    I hate the NFLX valuation, and think bears may have their day when growth slows (and it will). But the problem with the bear thesis is no one has really addressed what the marginal utility of the average NFLX subscriber is- i.e., how much would NFLX have to raise their rate to lose a significant number of subscribers. I don't have the service, but those I know that do view is almost as a utlility. Indeed, my business partner dropped his regular cable to do NFLX. And he'd pay more than the $9 or whatever he's paying now. I think if NFLX raised their prices $5/month, they would get some attrition, but not nearly enough to make me think I could short the stock. And think what a $3 raise would do to their metrics.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid lower after larger rival reports earnings [View news story]
    I wouldn't call it "likely", but it is far from far-fetched, especially given their stated goals of aggressive expansion via M&A. If you'll recall during periods of bank consolidations, many banks announced further acquisitions long before they'd finished integrating previous purchases. I'm not counting on it, but one can make a case for it, and even argue sooner versus later is better, from both a price paid standpoint, and also via nipping in the bud a competitor's turnaround before they achieve more brand awareness that further solidifies their growth.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid lower after larger rival reports earnings [View news story]
    RAD doesn't need to be bought by WBA to be a $10 stock, it just needs a couple more quarters of growth, the benefits of the McKesson agreement, and the PBM.
    That being said, WBA could get both more of a retail footprint (ex-FTC dispositions) annnnd a PBM w/ a RAD purchase.
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Expectations For FY 2015 Earnings Call [View article]
    Lisa Gill, JPM analyst...
    WBA: L. Gill out with April 15-16 analyst day preview where given stock move expectations are elevated for earnings (4/9) and analyst day. While previously had thought an acquisition of RAD was unlikely, following recent Rx channel consolidation, WBA may be more willing to do a deal. A transaction would drive synergies through rationalizing the store base and eliminating redundancies, payor contracting opportunities and revenue synergies from selling owned brands in RAD stores as add PBM and PDP capabilities. Lisa notes FTC concerns given store overlap (25 markets with combined share of 40% or more), and the potential for a debt downgrade as we believe a RAD deal could drive leverage to the mid-4x range (more detail in note). Another lever that WBA could pull is the sale leaseback market with WBA owning ~205 of its drugstores (peers own ~5-6% and Alliance Boots mostly leased in Europe.
    Apr 7, 2015. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Expectations For FY 2015 Earnings Call [View article]
    Don't forget about the call option open interest...It's likely this was a spec trade to buy/flip/close, but in the event all 152,970 April $9 contracts ~were~ exercised, it would equal the fifth largest holding in the stock. The bulk of that position was one trade. That's a pretty strong statement.
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Expectations For FY 2015 Earnings Call [View article]
    JPM moves to overweight, $10 PT.
    Apr 6, 2015. 10:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid delivers 4.3% comp in March [View news story]
    Cramer's a smart person on a number of levels, but at the end of the day is a carnival barker buffoon. On a regular basis he is an after-the-fact, 'told ya so' kinda guy- He's been all over the map on RAD; you can count on him trash talking RAD vs CVS if it tanks, and champion it the moment it breaks $10.
    I had to laugh a few weeks ago when (somehow) a caller got through to his show after HALO had gotten whacked from $16+ to $13+ post-earnings, noting that just a couple weeks earlier Cramer had touted it, and now the caller wondered given the hit it had just taken, whether he should now get in. Rather than own the near-20% hickey it had taken, Cramer said they should "ring the register". The guy's a showman, and if you wanna find out all you need to know about his reinvention he's made into The Champion For The Little Guy, look up the video when Jon Stewart had him on his show. Classic.
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid delivers 4.3% comp in March [View news story]
    I stand corrected. A guy who's traded institutional equity for 30 years told me historically they've reported in May. So mea culpa that I didn't fact check him. As for juicing the stock, it traded 49mm shares today, you don't seriously think that anything anyone says in this forum seriously influences the stock price up or down, do you?
    Long 40k shares via stock/LEAPs since $2-$3. Short $5 and $8 puts. Not counting on a buyout, but wouldn't be surprised to see one.
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid delivers 4.3% comp in March [View news story]
    Has anyone else noticed that RAD historically has reported earnings in May, but this quarter will be reporting on April 8th. One day -before- WBA reports. Coincidence? Hmmm.
    Apr 2, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Number-crunching on a potential Walgreens-Rite Aid merger [View news story]
    provide link please...the last story I can see with this line of reasoning is from 2012.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Rite Aid Is A Compelling Long-Term Pick In The Pharmacy Space [View article]
    SSS growth refutes any contention that RAD has not "rite-ed' their ship (pun intended). $10 stock by end of the year, Long 20k shrs since $2'ish, and holding.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Expecting Walgreens To Acquire Rite Aid [View article]
    I am not counting on a WBA purchase, but debt ratings would not be the impediment. Not all non-IG names trade the same, and with nominal rates where they are, even junk WBA debt to fund a purchase could be issued at an attractive level.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy In On MGM Resorts' Good Hand [View article]
    ...please, enlighten us....
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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