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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Sears Holdings Valuation: The Transformation [View article]
    I'm a bear, but to be fair, today was the ex-date on the Seritage Growth Properties warrants (currently trading at 4.65).
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Valuation: The Transformation [View article]
    ....pay no attention to that man behind the curtain ;-D
    Jun 2, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mizuho Makes Great Case For Rite Aid And Express Scripts Tie-Up [View article]
    I'm not on the FTC (or speaking for the author), but neither institution seems dominant enough in their respective industries to consider their union anti-competitive enough to stop a prospective merger. The author is most spot-on when it comes to looking at the Price-to-sales number as key to why anyone would want RAD. Folks focused on their debt load are not paying attention to the very healthy overall SSS growth.
    May 29, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    So....it was going to go to $1 because of the CEO. And you wrote the last article in the midst of the CEO getting canned. Wouldn't that have been the time to say, "Hey, they're punting the CEO, time to buy!"?
    Interesting that you choose to point to his stock sales as his being "stupid" when he stated the reasons (to fund his new company) and ignore the fact that he held onto enough shares to remain it's largest non-institutional holder. But don't let the facts get in the way of your thesis.
    You point to the drop to $8 as a validation of your thesis, and I point to the fact that the drop took place over weeks, and you say, "What's your point?" And all this on a stock that has historically shown a great amount of volatility.
    Please continue to break your arm patting yourself on the back as being some sort of RTRX hero for the stock dropping from $11 to $8 in the wake of your piece, but your supersensitivity to criticism and your consdescending fashion ("You're extremely naive"/"Can you not put 2 + 2 together?"/"Why are these points so difficult to grasp?") show a lack of objectivity that has no place on SA. Now, I'm done wasting my time.
    May 28, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    "Taking credit for getting the CEO fired is also pretty bold, and you presented no evidence for that."
    Please, it's not even debatable. My last article came out and shortly thereafter he was gone, against his will BTW. Can you not put 2 & 2 together?"
    -- It absolutely is debateable. You give yourself (and/or Seeking Alpha) far too much credit. Please point to the company's press release thanking you for your investigative reporting as the cause for his termination. Timing does not necessarily mean causation.

    "My first article came out when the stock was around 14. After my last article came out, it dropped to about 8. If anyone who was short didn't take the opportunity to cover below 10, it's not my fault."
    -- I'm not referencing previous articles. This piece came out on 10/6/14. In the wake of the CEO's firing, it did drop nearly to $8...over the next....seven....weeks. Hardly a free fall.
    "(of course, the ex-CEO was busy dumping his shares in the single digits). "
    -- as noted by the other poster, he was funding his new company. Nothing nefarious there. The guy today is still the SEVENTH largest shareholder, with holdings worth over $50mm. Hardly the posture of someone who thought the company was worthless without him.
    You called for the stock to go to $1. It went from $11 to $8 to $30.
    Next.
    May 28, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Valuation: The Transformation [View article]
    +1 cynicexcellence. An amazingly long, in-depth, thoughtful article...that fails to address that Sears has lost and will continue to lose money, and ultimately Lampert is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Moreover, it seems to imply that Sears has such a strong brand that merely by pivoting to Shop Your Way, they'll have created a "Build it and they will come" happy ending.
    The brand is a shadow of its former self, and if anything the Sears name is now viewed as an albatross. I note no mention of the myriad of seasoned professionals that have cycled through the C-suite. If that doesn't tell you something, nothing will.
    May 28, 2015. 10:17 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    You may have been right about the CEO, but the bottom line is your thesis on the stock was wrong, and claiming an article which trashed the stock was somehow perversely being "a long's best friend" is rubbish. Taking credit for getting the CEO fired is also pretty bold, and you presented no evidence for that. Nor did you reverse your call when Shkreli left the building. You should take your medicine and just admit you blew the call.
    May 27, 2015. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme's (SZYM) CEO Jonathan Wolfson on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Next Kevin Quon positive angle article in.....3.....2.....1....

    I am underwater big time in this, but hold it as a reminder of what can happen when neat ideas fail to meet that little bitty thing called "execution". These guys have more excuses than Planters has peanuts.

    I think this is like one of those soap operas like "The Young and the Restless" that my sisters used to watch and talk about. You could miss it for years, and turn it on and you wouldn't have missed a beat. They'd be talking about it, and I'd say, "Are you kidding me? That guy's wife's secret lover is still in the hospital with amnesia? That was five years ago, hasn't anything else happened on that show??"
    May 7, 2015. 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phony War Over salesforce.com [View article]
    Per my and other's earlier comment- Gerald Levin was considered a genius when he boldly bought AOL (and decimated Time Warner's stock)...Nadella's a smart guy, but the roads are littered with smart guys who made disastrous M&A calls.
    May 6, 2015. 01:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phony War Over salesforce.com [View article]
    Very rational analysis. But never underestimate the possibility that a company, even a big, smart one, may occasionally make a very dumb acquisition. Time Warner/AOL anyone?
    May 6, 2015. 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad chief to retire by end of year [View news story]
    No...a company who wanted to acquire ARIA would not be short the stock, they'd be long, and probably negotiating with the Board, probably through Denner.
    This really comes down to who you think is smarter: The shorts who think Inclusig might stumble again with the FDA, or Denner, who has more than 1/3rd of his hedge fund's assets invested in ARIA stock, and now has added another Denner-friendly member to the BOD. When the dust settles, my guess is this stock is either $5 or $15+. By my longs (both stock and calls), I am betting Denner has done his due diligence on the drug's future, and will attempt to lever that by forcing a sale of ARIA who can help take the drug and its revenues to the next level.
    Apr 30, 2015. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad chief to retire by end of year [View news story]
    Who on earth would be short this stock now? Crazy.
    Apr 29, 2015. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    I really chafe at posts like this, which seem to fault SA and Pro writers for, egad- wanting to make some money- and heaven forbid, maybe a lot of money. To be clear, I'm not a Pro participant, or a contributor. I come here to see ideas, some are good, some are a lot less than good. As far as I'm concerned I think it's a sometime valuable forum for people to exchange ideas. What I don't get is an attitude that seems to think guys like Chris should think up an idea, put in the work to explain his view, and be required to give it to someone for free. This mindset with the ole "1%" cliche feeds into a class warfare attitude that isn't healthy. Rather than criticize guys like DeMuth, I would suggest you put in your own work, start writing articles that people find valuable, and become a Pro writer yourself, and cease whining about other people getting paid for providing a service.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:18 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    It may be. As may AMZN, who is prolific at throwing gazillions at projects with no regard for profit margins. But NFLX has a huge lead/first in advantage and AMZN's efforts thus far have been less than stellar in this space. But watch out for AAPL, which among the three U.S. The only one who has a strong brand and also knows how to enter a segment with a notion of making money. AMZN is not far off from a capital raise, so they should have bigger fish to fry, but that won't stop Bezos.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    I hate the NFLX valuation, and think bears may have their day when growth slows (and it will). But the problem with the bear thesis is no one has really addressed what the marginal utility of the average NFLX subscriber is- i.e., how much would NFLX have to raise their rate to lose a significant number of subscribers. I don't have the service, but those I know that do view is almost as a utlility. Indeed, my business partner dropped his regular cable to do NFLX. And he'd pay more than the $9 or whatever he's paying now. I think if NFLX raised their prices $5/month, they would get some attrition, but not nearly enough to make me think I could short the stock. And think what a $3 raise would do to their metrics.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
298 Comments
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