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wrynot

wrynot
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  • Gilead: This Baby Has Been Thrown Away With The Bathwater [View article]
    Agree GILD is a quality company, but one cannot ignore the possibility of political/public pressure causing them to lower the price of Sovaldi (I believe there is precedent for this happening, no?)...And to the extent that happens, that throws all EPS assumptions off by some degree.
    Apr 16 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    MSF...seriously...duuu... you need to STFU and abandon posting for a while...It's one thing to have an opinion and be wrong, it's something else to vociferously criticize SHLD bears and then after a vacuum drop say you were selling your shares during the ~same period~ you were posting bull messages at a diarrhoeic rate. Candidly, I'm not even sure you ever had many shares to sell, but in any case, if you had any credibility, it has left the building and now you just look like a gadfly. So please, just stop...it's kinda nauseating.
    Apr 14 09:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    I was wondering the same thing...MSF is critical of Lampert for no announcement regarding Lukes' departure, but amongst his gazillion SHLD posts (just in this thread alone!) pumping a long SHLD position, I saw none saying he'd lost faith and sold all but one of his shares.
    Apr 7 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - What Is Changing The Decade-Old Rhetoric? [View article]
    I know, I know...it's like trying to teach a pig to sing: It's a waste of your time, and it annoys the pig. But given his comments are always long on sarcasm and grade-school playground level rhetoric and short any sign of critical analysis, I expected nothing less than that response. Of course, any AMZN Bull who ~actually had~ sold the bulk of his position at a higher level would gladly point to the post where he'd announced his sale, because a guy like that can't resist it. At one point I thought he must have had some meaningful position in it, but I'm beginning to think that the volume of his posts were always closer to an inverse of his actual holdings. Up next: Gary will tell us he actually bought PUTS when AMZN hit $408.06. {:-D
    Apr 1 02:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - What Is Changing The Decade-Old Rhetoric? [View article]
    Gary, given that you've posted over 2,800 comments, many of those to ridicule those critical of AMZN's valuation, perhaps you can direct us to that specific post informing all of us that you took most of your AMZN chips off the table. Given your historical defense of all things AMZN, this would actually be news worth noting.
    Apr 1 10:07 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - What Is Changing The Decade-Old Rhetoric? [View article]
    This "earnings spigot" moment in the "future" is the magic elixar AMZN bulls have been drinking to convince themselves that the long positive ride of AMZN has been justified. Bull runs are always fun, until they're not. There's no doubt at some point AMZN can stop buying market share, but the valuation far exceeds the differential between the assumed profit "spigot" and where AMZN needs to price to remain competitive.
    Apr 1 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story [View article]
    Don't quote me for attribution, as I'm just a Star Wars character...but I heard Einhorn just shorted your Coffeehouse ;-D
    Mar 25 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    You can afford to have a long term, "deep value" approach....IF...you have a ton of cash and little or no debt. Which is why that approach may work for Berkowitz in the case of JOE, which has ~6% debt/equity ratio.


    Sears has a debt/equity ratio of 244%, and is bleeding. People can have the best appraisers in the world expound on what a piece of real estate "should" be worth. But you only know what it's worth when the sale closes. If you don't believe me, look at some of the higher profile liquidations in the CMBS space.


    The entire world knows what SHLD's predicament is, and the asset sale idea isn't a new one anymore, i.e., it's not like they haven't had several -years, and by all appearances, there is no crowd falling over each other to buy most of their assets. They need a groundswell of demand to lift asset prices-- And the tide isn't rising enough to lift all of their real estate boats.
    Mar 25 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    There's no doubt Berkowitz and Lampert are smart people. But even smart people make mistakes, and history is filled with stories of smart people who caught the Hubris Virus or just exercised bad timing and got in over their heads. Candidly, Lampert's foray into retailing reminds me of Cerberus Capital thinking they could make money buying Chrysler. Anybody here remember how that turned out?

    There is also no doubt the brands and real estate SHLD have value, but every day the retail operation bleeds brings more reduction in those assets' value. And it seems to me the demand for the Sears' type of real estate is about as far from a 'food fight' bidding environment one could see. Lampert has to know if he stops tap-dancing now, he's toast. So he repositions the deck chairs, hoping to lay this liability off against that asset, all in the hopes that the real estate he bought on the cheap for 50 cents on the dollar will somehow miraculously start seeing bids north of 30 cents on the dollar.
    Mar 21 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle deepens ties with Major League Soccer [View news story]
    On the heels of MLS agreement, Victoria Beckham seen taking her kids into a Chipotle...that's worth $1B in market cap, right?
    Mar 4 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors dumping Sears Holdings in front of earnings [View news story]
    According to Bloomberg, EL hasn't markedly increased his stake for a year...and that addition of over 1mm shares was done when the stock was a good 30 points higher. So much for that timing.

    In any case, this merry go round play the trading range is not destined to go on forever.
    Feb 24 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Overview Of Ariad Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Wow. Maybe I should post a Bloomberg price chart, some 4 month old news about Alex Denner's position, contribute no meaningful analysis and then make a call to stay away from the company. What a worthless article.
    Feb 19 10:26 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Rite Aid And McKesson Partnership Meaningful? [View article]
    I guess there's a lot of people just aimlessly walking around the exchange? There must be, because this article says, "many are wandering why Rite Aid would trade to new highs " ;-D
    Feb 19 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Contrarian Stock Picks Near 52-Week Lows [View article]
    I'm long HERO, and sold Jan15 $5 puts in the last week, but a short squeeze rationale to go long here is a bad idea. HERO may rebound, but with only 5.53% of outstanding float short, it won't be caused by a short squeeze.
    Feb 11 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    If it weren't for the 31% short interest, I'd love to short this pup now..but one just doesn't know where the inflection/capitulation point is.
    It seems to me it can both be a smart and at the same time a desperate move, but not just on GMCR's part, but KO's as well. GMCR gets instant credibility and great branding, and KO gets to cover all their bases on the off-chance the world continues to move away from sugar-water consumption--> Note the real growth has been in things like bottled WATER. So you have two companies looking to bolster growth. And let's not forget that the CMCR CEO came there from KO, so it's wise not to underestimate that connection.
    The crux is whether many, many people end up being willing to move from pre-packaged to DIY beverages. With the sales of bottled water (versus, everyone buying a Brita), I tend to doubt it. But at this moment it is a very dangerous short.
    Feb 6 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
158 Comments
192 Likes