"Apple's (AAPL) sorta cheap," says Jeff Gundlach, admitting he's now long the stock he famously shorted 100-200 points ago. He doesn't seem terribly excited about the company's business prospects, but - selling for 7x earnings (excluding cash) - a hot new product isn't necessary to make the investment profitable. "(Apple) can keep selling a whole bunch of expensive new phones and iPads, and they'll be a cash cow." [View news story]
Gundlach is under no obligation to tell anyone of his plans prior to trading any more than you are. And even if he had, that's no guarantee that he's right and that "the crowd" would move in his direction (e.g., Einhorn's AAPL pronouncements haven't been so well-timed). In any case, whatever Gundlach's position is, it's highly unlikely it amounts to anything remotely resembling a significant position versus the total shares outstanding.
Apple Share Buyback - The Numbers Talk [View article]
Shares in "Treasury", i.e., shares which have been repurchased, are not considered shares "outstanding" and thus don't go into those equations. Shares which are awarded via employee compensation are thrown back into the pool of outstanding shares.
Unfortunately The Casino Does Not Always Win [View article]
WYNN and LVS may not be bad investments, but for the most part, MGM dominates the rest of the better properties on the strip, and there's an advantage to that (and that's forgetting about the properties they have ex-LV). It would seem that the City Center issues are behind them, and with every bond refinancing they do, their interest costs will drop, lowering the leverage. Not for the faint of heart, but a far cry from the risks they faced a few years ago..
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital took a 4.9% stake in Oil States International (OIS), a company he declared a target for shareholder activism target last week; Greenlight now ranks as the no. 5 shareholder in OIS. The fund also boosted stakes in Apple (AAPL) to ~2.4M shares from 1.3M (earlier) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) to 51.8M shares, more than 10% of shares out. New stakes: HES, SPR, GMCR, IACI. [View news story]
Einhorn doesn't have a "new stake" in GMCR...he's short, and has been for quite a while [Zero Hedge also incorrectly reported him as a long, quite sloppy]
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Down $17 at the moment...who knows, maybe it pops back up, but for the moment, I'm glad Paulo's analysis and the stock price are going in the same direction....oh yeah..."LOL" ;-D
Keep It Simple Stupid...basically a statement or admonition which says that one need not engage in some sort of elaborate calculation to reach a determination. Sort of like saying that "truth will out" eventually for a company making so much money and trading at such a historically cheap valuation. :)
DELL falls 2.5% to $13.60 after Blackstone informs the computer-maker's board it isn't interested in pursuing a bid for the company that may have topped Silver Lake and Michael Dell's $13.65 offer. Blackstone's exit speaks to doubts about the future of the PC industry as well as its inability to figure out how to get ahold of Dell's overseas cash hoard without incurring a large tax bill. [View news story]
There is still the matter of Southeastern, TRowe, Yacktman and Icahn. Though this move optically probably weakens their hand, they have the power to kill the $13.65 deal.
Credit Suisse raises its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +7.6%) after the company announced Q1 earnings Thursday. Comps growth of 1% Y/Y demonstrated that the company "weathered headwinds better than some had feared," and "excluding all the noise" comps on a one- and two-year basis "remain stable" showing the consumer "remains in the sluggish but stable trajectory." In a separate report, Northcoast Research upgrades the shares to Buy from Neutral. Price targets are now $360 for CS and $400 for NR. [View news story]
...am I the only one who finds it funny that the Benzinga article author's last name is "Einhorn"? Still color me amazed that the market can be paying 33x estimated earnings for a company that is projecting single-digit growth.
Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
Long AAPL and waiting for the rally, but to even bring up short interest as a catalyst is silly-- as of the end of March, the short interest was only about 2% of outstanding float, with only a 1.3 days to cover ratio- hardly the amount that would cause any sort of "short covering rally".
Zoltek Rebuffs Offers, But Quinn Isn't Going Away [View article]
It is non-sensical that someone would take a 10%+ position in a company while simultaneously going short with some sort of head-fake rationale for making money. The notion is so convoluted, it's ridiculous. These guys have gone long for two reasons- 1) They see the opportunity in carbon fiber 2) They see a company run by a guy who has made a ton of money for himself (and his directors) with timely option grants and sales, but done horribly for his investors (who have paid anywhere from $13.75 to $38+ for underwritten shares), and even with 18 years to do so, has failed to execute miserably. If you want an example, try to find the contract award for work on the Boeing Dreamliner, one of the most prominent industrial projects in recent memory, and when you can't, ask yourself why.
I'm a little rusty with my statistics, and your conclusion may very well be correct, but it would seem using a sample of only 20 stocks (even if they are 'random') against the S&P 500 (or even a larger index) is not a large enough sample size from which to draw a conclusion. I believe statistically speaking, to have a confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of +/- 5%, using a population size of 500 companies, you need a sample size of over 200. Of course, you can lower your confidence level, but in any event it seems a sample size of 20 is too low. I seem to remember from my long ago stats classes that the 'magic number' is something like 33, but I could be wrong.
Dell - Shareholders Are The Winners If 3 Fight For 1 [View article]
Am hoping you are right, as I'm long 14/15 calls for April/May...does anyone on here have an (educated) opinion on when the Icahn/Blackstone bids will be considered 'formal' enough to trigger the 4-day time frame Dell/Silverlake is allowed to counter?
Michael Dell considers Blackstone's preliminary offer for Dell (DELL +3%) "potentially friendly to management" and may reach out to the firm this week, the NYT reports. Blackstone has reportedly been scouting possible replacements for Dell should he remain committed to Silver Lake, including Oracle president Mark Hurd. [View news story]
Let's not forget Southeastern and TRowe...and it also seems likely that Icahn took the capital risk to build a position (probably close to $14 cost) to vote his shares for a deal that comes in < $15/shr
Where are all those "no one else will bid" guys now? Faber, Sorkin, and Cramer: The trifecta swung and whiffed on that call. And Cramer, who can't stand admitting he was wrong, now has taken the tack that the bidders are stupid, and that he knows more about DELL than the company's founder and the former DELL exec who joined Blackstone. Brilliant! {:-D
"Apple's (AAPL) sorta cheap," says Jeff Gundlach, admitting he's now long the stock he famously shorted 100-200 points ago. He doesn't seem terribly excited about the company's business prospects, but - selling for 7x earnings (excluding cash) - a hot new product isn't necessary to make the investment profitable. "(Apple) can keep selling a whole bunch of expensive new phones and iPads, and they'll be a cash cow." [View news story]
Apple Share Buyback - The Numbers Talk [View article]
Unfortunately The Casino Does Not Always Win [View article]
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital took a 4.9% stake in Oil States International (OIS), a company he declared a target for shareholder activism target last week; Greenlight now ranks as the no. 5 shareholder in OIS. The fund also boosted stakes in Apple (AAPL) to ~2.4M shares from 1.3M (earlier) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) to 51.8M shares, more than 10% of shares out. New stakes: HES, SPR, GMCR, IACI. [View news story]
Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected [View article]
Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
DELL falls 2.5% to $13.60 after Blackstone informs the computer-maker's board it isn't interested in pursuing a bid for the company that may have topped Silver Lake and Michael Dell's $13.65 offer. Blackstone's exit speaks to doubts about the future of the PC industry as well as its inability to figure out how to get ahold of Dell's overseas cash hoard without incurring a large tax bill. [View news story]
Credit Suisse raises its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +7.6%) after the company announced Q1 earnings Thursday. Comps growth of 1% Y/Y demonstrated that the company "weathered headwinds better than some had feared," and "excluding all the noise" comps on a one- and two-year basis "remain stable" showing the consumer "remains in the sluggish but stable trajectory." In a separate report, Northcoast Research upgrades the shares to Buy from Neutral. Price targets are now $360 for CS and $400 for NR. [View news story]
Still color me amazed that the market can be paying 33x estimated earnings for a company that is projecting single-digit growth.
Reflections On The Current State Of Apple [View article]
Zoltek Rebuffs Offers, But Quinn Isn't Going Away [View article]
These guys have gone long for two reasons-
1) They see the opportunity in carbon fiber
2) They see a company run by a guy who has made a ton of money for himself (and his directors) with timely option grants and sales, but done horribly for his investors (who have paid anywhere from $13.75 to $38+ for underwritten shares), and even with 18 years to do so, has failed to execute miserably. If you want an example, try to find the contract award for work on the Boeing Dreamliner, one of the most prominent industrial projects in recent memory, and when you can't, ask yourself why.
Debunking The PEG Ratio [View article]
Charting Apple's Relative Underperformance [View article]
Ummm...I think you mean "revealed".
Dell - Shareholders Are The Winners If 3 Fight For 1 [View article]
Michael Dell considers Blackstone's preliminary offer for Dell (DELL +3%) "potentially friendly to management" and may reach out to the firm this week, the NYT reports. Blackstone has reportedly been scouting possible replacements for Dell should he remain committed to Silver Lake, including Oracle president Mark Hurd. [View news story]
Dell: Take The Premium And Run [View article]
Faber, Sorkin, and Cramer: The trifecta swung and whiffed on that call.
And Cramer, who can't stand admitting he was wrong, now has taken the tack that the bidders are stupid, and that he knows more about DELL than the company's founder and the former DELL exec who joined Blackstone.
Brilliant! {:-D