wrynot

wrynot
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  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings  [View article]
    Days to cover is an estimate of how many trading days it would take to cover a short based upon the average daily trading volume of the stock.
    E.G.: if there are 1mm shares short, and the average daily trading volume is 200,000 shares, then your "days to cover" would be 5.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings  [View article]
    that's the first thing you've said in the last year that makes sense.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings  [View article]
    didn't mean to diss the guy's call...my "point" is that given the fundamentals of the situation, one would be well advised to know when earnings are coming out, and should consider reversing the trade before then.
    The outstanding short interest of SHLD is well known. So is the unrelenting blood-letting and loss of revenues.
    Full disclosure: Shorted at 34 via long puts, covered at 28 via long calls for just this situation. Will let it rally, hopefully a lot, and then will reset trade on long puts, as I don't believe a short squeeze or lollipop and rainbow dreams of real estate monetiziation can ultimately redeem this company.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings  [View article]
    ...be sure to revisit after SHLD reports earnings on 11/21
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings  [View article]
    I don't know yow much you own, but saying SHLD and BRK in the same sentence strikes me as crazy. I believe you are going to take a huge hickey with SHLD.
    The author's point about the huge short being prone to a squeeze is legitimate, but that assumes there is anything in the underlying fundamentals, retail biz or real estate valuation-wise, to justify someone buying the shares. The ONLY reason to buy these shares is for a short squeeze. And that on its own is a horrible reason to go-- or stay-- long.
    As for the rights offering, I am reminded of that phrase from the 60's, "What if they had a war and nobody came?"...They had no interested buyers in Sears Canada, so now they're trying to raise money by selling rights to shareholders...and STILL its traction has been deminimus. That should tell you something. Please find me an example of monetization (real estate, Canada, whatever) in the past year that has, upon execution, been anywhere NEAR the original estimate of its value. Ain't gonna happen.
    I learned my lesson the hard way about billionaires and coat-tailing with Paul Allen (CHTR) and even Carl Icahn (WCIC). Don't make the same mistake I did.
    Oct 17, 2014. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On The Story At Sears Holdings  [View article]
    ...yes, because his JCP trade worked out so well.
    Still flat MSF?
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Transocean Ltd. Or Transocean Partners LLC?  [View article]
    unless you think offshore drilling will cease to exist, look at a long term chart. I'm wearing more at $30, and wouldn't be surprised to see it lower, but very few call a bottom.
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On The Story At Sears Holdings  [View article]
    No position? I think someone's hacked your computer because 48 hours ago, someone using your User ID posted "$45 real soon" just above in this comment thread. Scroll above and see....You should probably let SA know that another MSF is posting the stock's about to go up 75% soon while you're sounding scared about what's going to happen to the stock. :-D
    Oct 10, 2014. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On A Quick Rebound For Rite Aid  [View article]
    No mention of the store-by-store remodeling/repurposing and resultant revenue/margin enhancement? That's the bulk of the story behind owning RAD.
    Oct 9, 2014. 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings responds to reports of distress  [View news story]
    Yeah...I don't know how people post total BS on here get away with it either...that would be like someone buying calls when the stock was 30-something and selling when it was high 20s and posting claims that he made money on the trade.
    Oct 8, 2014. 03:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On The Story At Sears Holdings  [View article]
    Sure. That's why you sold your calls "for a profit". Yeah. Right.
    Although anyone tracking SHLD price and crossreferencing the dates of your trade pronouncements (vague as they are) would say that's a fiction.
    Here's a question for all the Berkowitz Bulls Relying On Real Estate:
    Remember the guy he quoted in his Case Study?
    "Sears Holdings has one of the most diverse and valuable real estate portfolios in the country and I look forward to helping create additional value for the company by enhancing and repositioning selected parts of its real estate portfolio."– David R. Lukes, President of Real Estate Development, March 20, 2012
    1) Where is Lukes now? Answer--> Jumped ship last Spring.
    Now...some will say, "Hey, he got a better opportunity" (though if you believe SHLD is a $150 stock, it's hard to think what could be a better inducement to stay than that)...but here's the bigger question....
    2) Berkowitz cites this man as The Real Estate guru (albeit, he also said SHLD's balance sheet is strong and has no liquidity needs)...so...How many shares of SHLD does Luckes still own?.....You guessed it.
    Why would the guy who ran their Real Estate group not own SHLD now?
    Oct 8, 2014. 10:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre  [View article]
    ...speaks the guy who's short the stock and trashes it on SA? Seriously, tone down the righteous indignation, these posts aren't born out of altruism now, are they?
    To repeat: I'm not betting the ranch on Shkreli's credibility. I have a small long, but wouldn't be surprised if the stock went to $5 tomorrow. Also wouldn't be surprised if it went to $15.
    To address those sarcastically asking me if I want Shkreli's puff tweets promoted, the answer is not really, but if you're going to incorporate his tweets to further your short bias, then you should mention those tweets which go against your thesis.
    By the bye, to say his purchase/sale history last Spring gives his recent activity "no credibility" is hugely debatable. If you look at his "net", his actual share count reduction is closer to 58,000 shares, not 292,000. Maybe the guy got an extension on Tax Day and finally bucked up in May. Maybe he bought a house. Maybe there was another stock he wanted to buy. I dunno. What I do know is that whether he sold 292,000 or not (net out the buys/sells....he didn't), the guy still owns TEN TIMES that amount. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see him sell a huge stake now to fund his next venture. And I would guess that would take the stock down. But while that MAY be cause for concern, it is not NECESSARILY the case.
    I see a lot of personal bashing on here, and I'll be the first to say Shkreli's not my idea of an ideal CEO. But I don't see many bears articulately arguing against the scientific merits of the RTRX story. And unless you know the science, you are at risk (long or short). There were a fair amount of bears on DRTX-- 30% of the float was short. How'd that work out for them?
    Oct 7, 2014. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre  [View article]
    Are you referring to his sale of 292,400 shares on 5/30/14 at 15.14?
    Or has he made a more recent sale of substantial size? Link please.
    According to NASDAQ, his last 4 transactions (not including the shares he bought and sold on May 30th), were all purchases, totaling 70,500 ranging from $9.42 to $11.78. It also shows him with current holdings of 2,937,168. http://bit.ly/1qal8gL
    In any case, I was not noting Shkreli's credibility, but the author's selective choices of quoting what Shkreli has said. And quoting so many of his posts, but leaving out his Tweet saying he wasn't selling, and believes the stock's worth $25, shows the author's bias.
    Oct 7, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre  [View article]
    Maybe the stock's going to zero, and Shkreli's demonstrated enough flakey behavior to give anyone pause, but your selective use of his Twitter tweets is telling- I notice you didn't choose to include this one he made on 9/30:
    "Not selling $RTRX. the stock is very, very cheap. The revenue generating assets alone are worth >$25/share with very onerous EOL assumption."
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix signs exclusive movie deal with Adam Sandler  [View news story]
    ...and just when I was starting to worry about where the future supply of films with flatulence as a major theme was going to come from.
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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