Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
While you think we are going the way of the android I think long term we will go the way of the cyborg. Human enhancement is the way of the future and I am saving money so I can afford top of the line cybernetic parts in order to stay ahead in the future economy. Why would humans want to create androids when we can become better humans?
Why would you bash a stock you thought was a good investment. Unless you wanted to buy more. I would trust it much less if it came from someone who was long.
How Long Will You Have Google's Apps In iOS? [View article]
This reminds me of netscape navigator running on microsoft operating system back in the day. When microsoft was trying to control all the software on windows. This didn't turn out well for them either.
I hate apple devices because the apple market place is lame. I like how microsoft does things. Gives you an operating system and you can put whatever you want on your device.
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up [View article]
As I said UNG Crashed today. I would like to thank you and other UNG/ nat gas pumpers for being ignorant and allowing me to add to my short position when UNG was up at 16.30
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up [View article]
What is with all these nat gas pumpers on seeking alpha lately. UNG is a very bad investment. Its losing 5-10% every month to cotango. If you think that natural gas is going to go up 5+% every month then go for it. Remember 5% gain a month is your breakeven.
Now nat gas is comming back down as people realize that the coolaid they have been drinking all week with these articles on nat gas replacing coal and low nat gas prices don't matter when in the short term there is record natural gas in storage. The new report just game out so nat gas is comming down today and fast. Nice call there bud sorry you have to lose your money Ill keep my short with the 5+ % cotango gain every month.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
To see if natural gas is displacing coal in 2012 it makes perfect sense to compare the 2011 numbers to the 2010 numbers. The weather patterns of 2011 has a lot of effect on the low natural gas prices of 2012. I made this same point to him he is just really confused. How does looking at numbers and displacement when natural gas prices were higher indicate that natural gas is not displacing coal this year.
I agree with what he is saying I just think the way he uses numbers is way off.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
He can't be a math guy he doesen't understand what I am saying.
What I am saying is that natural gas could replace half of coal and the coal utilization rate would still be much higher for coal. The utilization rate comparison is garbage.
Is Natural Gas Really Displacing Coal Demand? - Data Speaks [View instapost]
Your information says that that the last 2 years had the largest power usage out of any year and the coal usage is pretty far down on your chart. But 2009 would be explained in part by lower overall usage.
Coal usage should not be effected very much durring the summer being a base load provider.
Your numbers right there say something is replacing coal. The actual amount of coal used would be a much better metric as well.
You could be missing a senario where more energy is produced from less coal.
Looking at your numbers the growth for coal will have to be in exports. And exports will have to cover the lower usage of coal as well.
Is Natural Gas Really Displacing Coal Demand? - Data Speaks [View instapost]
From the chart it looks like the amount generated from coal the last 3 years is lower then any year on the chart. Something is replacing coal it seems.
I actually don't know this but is the electricity generated from coal per unit higher then in 1999. If it is you could be generating less electricity with less coal per unit which would look pretty bad for coal.
Also since the price of nat gas has only been very low this year how does looking at past years when the price was higher prove that natural gas is not replacing coal this year because of the lower price.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
Here is what you said
"That's what the data says. More recently, in January, 2012, the NG turbines were utilized to 28% of the total hours, but coal units were utilized to 54% of the hours, twice as much as NG turbines.
Clearly utilities were NOT rushing to dispatch NG units ahead of coal units. The opposite is true. They are dispatching coal units ahead of NG units and twice as much as NG units."
You compared the natural gas utilization rate directly to the coal rate and used that to conclude that natural gas is not replacing coal. I agree that coal does not compete with natural gas for the most part.
The problem is there is no senario where natural gas utilization will be lower then coal. The whole point of most of the power plants that use natural gas is to be off 80% of the day to only use the money to run them at peak power periods.
Even if natural gas was replacing coal in the short term the nat gas utilization rate will always be lower.
Looking at one month utilization rate to validate your second argument was wrong.
The instablog post was a good read I will give you that.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
Again you don't know what your talking about. Using natural gas turbine utilization rate to make your point is complete hogwash. Coal can't replace natural gas for peak power production while natural gas can replace coals place in the electical grid ( though I think the effect will be much smaller then paul thinks). So even if paul is right 100% nat gas will have a much lower utilization rate.
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
Is Amazon The Next Netscape? [View article]
How Long Will You Have Google's Apps In iOS? [View article]
I hate apple devices because the apple market place is lame. I like how microsoft does things. Gives you an operating system and you can put whatever you want on your device.
The Probability Of QE3 Is Increasing Again [View article]
I really think that the markets are headed down for the month. The numbers are so bad right now. And I am normally a perma bull on the overall market.
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up [View article]
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up [View article]
Now nat gas is comming back down as people realize that the coolaid they have been drinking all week with these articles on nat gas replacing coal and low nat gas prices don't matter when in the short term there is record natural gas in storage. The new report just game out so nat gas is comming down today and fast. Nice call there bud sorry you have to lose your money Ill keep my short with the 5+ % cotango gain every month.
Yes, I Got Apple Wrong [View instapost]
Who saw this kind of china growth comming this soon. I mean if you say you saw this comming you have to be working in china for apple.
Yes, I Got Apple Wrong [View instapost]
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
I agree with what he is saying I just think the way he uses numbers is way off.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
What I am saying is that natural gas could replace half of coal and the coal utilization rate would still be much higher for coal. The utilization rate comparison is garbage.
Is Natural Gas Really Displacing Coal Demand? - Data Speaks [View instapost]
Coal usage should not be effected very much durring the summer being a base load provider.
Your numbers right there say something is replacing coal. The actual amount of coal used would be a much better metric as well.
You could be missing a senario where more energy is produced from less coal.
Looking at your numbers the growth for coal will have to be in exports. And exports will have to cover the lower usage of coal as well.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
I also do not think that natural gas is replacing coal. Maybe on a small scale but nothing significant.
Is Natural Gas Really Displacing Coal Demand? - Data Speaks [View instapost]
I actually don't know this but is the electricity generated from coal per unit higher then in 1999. If it is you could be generating less electricity with less coal per unit which would look pretty bad for coal.
Also since the price of nat gas has only been very low this year how does looking at past years when the price was higher prove that natural gas is not replacing coal this year because of the lower price.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]
"That's what the data says. More recently, in January, 2012, the NG turbines were utilized to 28% of the total hours, but coal units were utilized to 54% of the hours, twice as much as NG turbines.
Clearly utilities were NOT rushing to dispatch NG units ahead of coal units. The opposite is true. They are dispatching coal units ahead of NG units and twice as much as NG units."
You compared the natural gas utilization rate directly to the coal rate and used that to conclude that natural gas is not replacing coal. I agree that coal does not compete with natural gas for the most part.
The problem is there is no senario where natural gas utilization will be lower then coal. The whole point of most of the power plants that use natural gas is to be off 80% of the day to only use the money to run them at peak power periods.
Even if natural gas was replacing coal in the short term the nat gas utilization rate will always be lower.
Looking at one month utilization rate to validate your second argument was wrong.
The instablog post was a good read I will give you that.
Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt [View article]