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  • First Indications On Apple's iPad Mini  [View article]
    Positive tone from Paulo this time about The big Apple market strategy. Still Paulo I give credit for naysayers including you about Apple future. Push the pen please. The executif Apple team are certainly fully aware investors are unhappy about their frequent missteps and the fact that mighty Apple is playing catch up game with only an evolutionary product market strategy. This is clearly annoying from an investor perspectives.

    Apple has to take the leadership to bring innovative disruptive new product and service or become an ordinary cash cow like Microsoft.
    Oct 16, 2012. 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, I Got Apple Wrong  [View instapost]
    Paulo Santos is not different from all those analysts amateurs or pros that did their 1+1 equal 2. You rarely have all the data points and only in hindsight you realize how easy it was to see the picture.

    Remember last September Earning miss for Apple. How many articles I read cautious about the earning because of iPhone 5(4s) delay. Analysts missed the point of connecting the dots that everybody was waiting the new iPhone instead of buying the iPhone 4 which then caused the miss.
    Apr 25, 2012. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Method To My Stock-Picking Madness, Part 2  [View article]
    Thanks JD, iuse similar methodology though somewhat different and developed in excel. This approach uses 5 blocs of metrics.


    2-growth: sales,EPS, OVER THE LAST 3 years and next 2 years

    3-management efficiency:ROE,ROA,ROI, PROFIT MARGIN

    4-sentiment: zacks rank based on eps estimate revision trend
    agreement between analysts and it's magnitude for stocks followed by more than 5 analysts which gives statistical weight to the agreement side of the equation based on published research.

    5-relative strenght: where the is relative to it's 52wk high-low and also relative to a benchmark-usually the s&p500

    I do further research to add one more metric covering the safety issue and the margin of safety based on Graham formula and Altman z-score.

    Data is ranked in each variable Using excel spreadsheet then aggregated in each bloc before averaging together in one final score for each stock.

    The good deal about this is that it gives you a list of solid growth Stocks and turnarounds mostly undervalued but eliminates small cap and low growth companies. A good example is that Apple is in the first 3 stocks of that list when I finish my ranking.

    Thomas saaty has extensively published a research methodology to do this type of ranking and further assign weights if there is need to do it. He calls this methodology analytical hierarchy process or AHP.
    Apr 25, 2012. 01:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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