Over 25 years of experience in the Investment field, as an Investment Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Relationship Management. CFA Charterholder for over 20 years. Fluent in English, French and Spanish. Mainly into Fundamentals , however looking to expand my "Toolbox".
Presently, looking for a employment opportunity.
Organizer of an Arts & Culture, Think Thank and cycling groups on MeetUp.com
MBA MIT Sloan, BS/MS in Electrical and Computer Engineering Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Technology startup veteran. Travel Enthusiast: Shanghai, Kyoto, Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, Tasmania, Sydney, Melbourne, Ephesus, Taipei, Istanbul, Athens, Barcelona, Monaco, London, Naples, Pompei, Rome, Scotland, and my all time favorite, the British Virgin Islands. My Dad got me into the WSJ at age 12 and I've been hooked ever since.
Momentum Trader/Technical Trader. Move fast when an opportunity arises, cut losers fast to protect from losses, keep risk low, play the odds when in your favor, don't feel obligated to buy as that will ruin your mindset. Plenty of opportunities out there, don't let yourself feel rushed.
Business Owner/Entrepreneur first, Trader second, author third. This business limits my ability to trade, so not as as many articles and updates as some of you were used to in previous years.
Website being rebooted & launched in 2016.
Mike Kudrna and the information on his blog are for educational purposes only. You should speak to your own financial advisor before making any decisions based on Mr. Kudrna’s opinions. Mr. Kudrna is not responsible for any actions you take upon reading his perspective and opinion. Keep in mind that positions that Mr. Kudrna has can change at any time without written notice.
I'm a computer engineer with a great interest in finance. I'm not a pro, I do it for my family. But I'll share what I know and try to be as helpful as I can. I own about 10% of my assets in precious metals. As for currencies, I keep about 75% CAD vs 25% USD of my assets. I have about 35% in mutual funds; global small cap, global fixed income and global real estate. These allocations are fully managed by me, but I re-balance twice a year or so. That mutual fund core is insuring sufficient diversification and low correlation to the following US and Canada single stocks.
About another 35% is a trusted core of single stocks, both Canada and US. These positions are generally overweight at about 3% of portfolio. Core positions have a few properties in my portfolio: low turn-over, very long term, low debt, often dividend growers with low payouts, good valuations, good growth, low beta. They are safe and feel safe, and I usually build those position over the years. I consider it core after 2 years of reliable service. A stock can gain my trust by presenting profits. Not much mega caps, mostly small to medium caps. Another property of my core: easy to understand businesses. They wash linen, they sell groceries, they make boxes, they produce wine. As I build confidence and understanding, I allow more exotic positions in core. They manage money, they rent retirement houses, they dig for metals, they patent software, etc.
At the other extreme, I keep a few lottery tickets as satellite positions for about 20% of portfolio total, 0.75% to 1.5% of portfolio each position. More risky or difficult to understand business, more volatile and some signs of stink. Could be reversal plays, could be momentum stocks, can display signs of breaking out. Usually, I rely a little more on technicals than fundamentals there. And I trade. I learn. I make mistakes. I churn. Survival of the fittest.
I always look for dips in my core positions, and I wait for clear signals to buy back (volume, a few moving avg). If I have cash, I use it. If I don't I look at core and I trim large gains. If no gains there, I look at satellites for gains. If no gains, I look at satellites for mistakes, stinkers, unreliable bets. With money, I buy dips in core positions or in-the-middle stocks. In middle stocks are first buys aiming core, or rising satellites gaining confidence and improving.
Here's my complete stock portfolio as of mid-March 2016, where each record corresponds to (yes I would like to display as array):
NAME, TICKER, MKT CAP, PE, BETA, % of portfolio
Alimentation Couche-Tard ATD.B 33.71B 21.4 -0.11 5.0%
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. RCH 1.59B 26.74 0.57 4.9%
Winpak Ltd. WPK 2.89B 21.65 0.42 4.7%
Milestone Apartments MST.UN 1.49B 4.44 -0.17 4.7%
Supremex Inc SXP 144.07M 9.43 0.92 4.7%
Savaria Corporation SIS 311.44M 29.33 0.48 4.6%
K-Bro Linen Inc KBL 356.99M 30.42 0.4 4.4%
Intertape Polymer Group ITP 1.25B 17.94 1.05 4.3%
Andrew Peller Ltd. ADW.A 384.42M 20.23 0.22 4.3%
AMERCO UHAL 7.87B 15.9 1.55 3.6%
Saputo Inc. SAP 15.48B 25.96 0.25 3.6%
RDM Corp RC 98.02M 16.8 0.88 3.4%
Acadian Timber Corp ADN 306.91M 20.22 0.48 3.3%
Richards Packaging RPI.UN 280.52M 23.04 0.6 3.2%
Lassonde Industries Inc. LAS.A 649.85M 22.6 0.08 2.9%
Pason Systems Inc. PSI 1.46B 1000 0.37 2.8%
Tricon Capital Group Inc TCN 1.05B 11.43 0.43 2.8%
Metro, Inc. MRU 11.24B 21.33 0.22 2.8%
CCL Industries Inc. CCL.B 8.17B 26.01 0.85 2.8%
Walt Disney Co DIS 155.07B 17.59 1.34 2.8%
First Trust Health Care... FXH 1.18B 20 0.9 2.5%
Photon Control Inc PHO 79.55M 10.22 1 2.3%
Brookfield Asset Management BAM.A 44.31B 19.34 0.52 2.1%
Brinker International EAT 2.64B 14.54 0.4 2.1%
Sylogist Ltd. SYZ 249.35M 52.2 1.34 2.0%
Logistec Corporation LGT.B 442.18M 16.21 0.55 1.6%
Enbridge Income Fund ENF 4.00B 16.83 0.17 1.5%
Ceapro Inc. CZO 129.92M 19.85 2.14 1.3%
ProShares Ultra Nasdaq BIB 493.79M 30 2.18 1.3%
Pivot Tech. Solutions PTG 73.55M 9.55 0.45 1.3%
Biosyent Inc. RX 125.79M 34.13 -0.29 1.2%
XPEL Technologies Corp DAP.U 28.62M 18.28 0.1 1.0%
Pacific Safety Products PSP 10.96M 13.21 1.98 0.9%
Omni-Lite Industries OML 17.38M 22 1.11 0.8%
American Water Works AWK 14.82B 31.17 0.13 0.8%
IWG Technologies Inc IWG 11.88M 13.06 0.77 0.7%
When will long-term investors have any cash to deploy? If you believe in their mantra, most of them think people should be nearly fully invested nearly all of the time - it is rare to have a long term Buy and Hold investor to keep 30% in cash for buying opportunities. How much of a loss are you willing to suffer waiting for a recovery? 10%, 20%, 30%? Do the numbers and see what kind of gain you will need to recoup to the break even point on several loss levels to get an idea of how long you may need to wait. For example a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to get back to the break even. A 20% loss takes a 25 % GAIN to get back to even.$100,000 - 20% = $80,000 . 80k X 25% = 20,000 +80k =100K There are few assets like PM's that are liquid and have NO counterparty risk. If you know of any that perform that function please post it for all to see. The fact of the matter is that some people ONLY save any money because of Precious Metals. If it were not for their gold and silver many would not have any money saved or invested. They would have Beanie babies or some other fad item. The people that buy Silver Eagles are much happier ten years later when they bought those coins made of PM's for their grandchildren (or whomever) when they find out the $8 - $12 bucks they spent is worth more than they paid.And the recipient learns a valuable lesson from it. There are good gifts and not so good gifts. Silver Eagles rank near the top of the list. Don't underestimate the power for people to develop good savings habits using PM's . It's fundamental. Our welfare system is a huge drain on the economy .Those of us working for a living instead of voting for a living see huge holes in our paychecks every week. As unfortunate as it is to know that cuts to foodstamps and welfare will likely cause a bit of suffering, it’s not the job of the government to forcibly remove money from the pockets of hard working Americans in order to take care of those who won’t work. Granted, there are some people who genuinely need the help, and those folks get dragged into the mud with the abusers, which isn’t fair to them. Now, just because the government shouldn’t be “helping” those in need, doesn’t mean we as Americans should forego kindness and charity. Quite the opposite. Americans are some of the most generous people on the planet, but unfortunately, that generosity gets quelled when the government is involved.Without the government in the way, regular every day individuals like you and me need to step up and start helping those who are in dire straits. That’s how this country used to be long before all of the social welfare programs, and it’s what made our nation so wonderful. If the government insists on being “helpful,” they can start by reducing taxes and ridiculous regulations that overburden small business owners, which will free them up to expand their companies and hire new workers. Two of my favorite comments ever on SA Avi Gilburt , Contributor
WOW!!! So, I guess when sentiment is at historical lows, we MUST assume it can only continue down!! lol
All you say constantly over and over is "I don't understand how it can work, so, clearly, it does not work." That really does not need much of a "demonstration" or response.
........................ In 1971 Nixon set the price of gold at $31/oz, today it's around $1,200, so in 45 years the price has gone up 3,158% or so if my math is sound. If you bought your stock in 1971, when the S&P was around 700 you realized a very impressive gain but well short of gold and what it buys you now in 2017 .
....................................................................................................................................................... Let's say 50 years ago, 1964, your grandfather bequeathed you an inheritance worth $1,000, which he put in a pretty box with your name on it. At this moment, you are about to open that box… Would you be happy to find his personal check dated 1964 made payable to you; would you rather find ten $100 Federal Reserve Notes; or would you prefer to find that thousand bucks in the form of 4,000 silver quarters, the steady constant value of 715 ounces of silver, with a current dollar number north of $12,500? Would your choice be the same if you were putting your wealth away today for an heir to receive in ten, twenty, or fifty years?
..................................................................................................... Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level. At the domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission when it defaults on interbank liabilities and sells assets in a fire sale, thereby undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the subsequent turmoil in the United Statesfinancial markets. International financial contagion, which happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, is the transmission of financial crisis across financial markets for direct or indirect economies. However, under today's financial system, with large volume of cash flow, such as hedge fund and cross-regional operation of large banks, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously both among domestic institutions and across countries. The cause of financial contagion usually is beyond the explanation of real economy, such as the bilateral trade volume.
Zugzwang (German for "compulsion to move") is a situation found in chess wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because they must make a move when they would prefer to pass and not to move. The fact that the player is compelled to move means that his position will become significantly weaker. A player is said to be "in zugzwang" when any possible move will worsen his position.
Independent investor, involved largely in energy sector after a long history of investing in biotech.Given energy balance and time to market, the energy sector is much more attractive at this stage of things.
I am a dividend growth investor from Europe. I'm building a portfolio of high-quality European dividend growth stocks that I intend to hold on to for as long as possible to provide me with passive income. I am on a path to financial independence. Follow me at mdfarragher.com.
B.S. in Business Administration from Southeast Missouri State University 1969. Owner of Midwest Software, worked 24 years designing and programming custom accounting application software for IBM AS/400 computers.
Enjoy golf, fishing, hunting, investing.and reading Seeking Alpha articles.
I am working in the commodity trade finance business and earn a considerable part of my income with investing my own funds. My main interests are in investment strategies, equities long and short and occasionally in volatility.
Donald R. van Deventer founded the Kamakura Corporation in April, 1990 and is currently Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. van Deventer's emphasis at Kamakura Corporation is enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. The second edition of his newest book, Advanced Financial Risk Management (with Kenji Imai and Mark Mesler) was published in 2013 by John Wiley & Sons. In 2003 Dr. van Deventer co-authored Credit Risk Models and the Basel Accords with Kenji Imai. His second book, also with Kenji Imai, is Financial Risk Analytics: A Term Structure Model Approach for Banking, Insurance, and Investment Management published by Irwin in 1996. Dr. van Deventer's first book Financial Risk Management in Banking (with Dr. Dennis Uyemura, Probus Publishing, 1993) is one of the best known books in its field. He has served on the editorial board of the Journal of Credit Risk since 2005. Dr. van Deventer's primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Dr. van Deventer has been involved in financial advisory assignments including both risk management and mergers and acquisitions. He has worked on assignments for the municipalities affected in the Orange County bankruptcy, in a major derivatives dispute between JPMorgan and a Korean securities firm, for Bank Negara Malaysia, the Department of the Treasury of the United States, governments of three of the OECD countries and many of the world’s largest financial institutions. Prior to founding Kamakura Corporation, Dr. van Deventer was senior vice president in the investment banking department of Lehman Brothers (then Shearson Lehman Hutton) from 1987 to 1990. During that time, he was responsible for 27 major client relationships including Sony, Canon, Fujitsu, NTT, Tokyo Electric Power Co., and most of Japan's leading banks. Dr. van Deventer completed three of the first four mergers and acquisitions assignments for a Japanese client by Lehman Brothers and the first domestic Japanese corporate straight bond underwriting by the firm. From 1982 to 1987, Dr. van Deventer was the treasurer for First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles. In this capacity he was responsible for all bond financing requirements, the company’s commercial paper program, and a multi-billion dollar derivatives hedging program for the company. During this time, First Interstate became the first issuer of medium term notes in the Euro market and first issuer of bank medium term notes. Dr. van Deventer also served as senior planning officer for acquisitions, new ventures and corporate strategy, participating in the 1986 attempted take-over of BankAmerica Corporation. Dr. van Deventer was a Vice President in the risk management department of Security Pacific National Bank from 1977 to 1982, where he initiated the duration-based futures hedging program for the bank. Dr. van Deventer holds a Ph.D. in Business Economics, a joint degree of the Harvard University Department of Economics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He was appointed to the Harvard University Graduate School Alumni Association Council in 1999 and has now completed more than a decade of service on the Council. Dr. van Deventer served as Chairman of the Council for four years from 2012 to 2016. From 2005 through 2009, he served as one of two appointed directors of the Harvard Alumni Association representing the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. Dr. van Deventer was named to the CFA Hawaii Advisory Board in 2010. Dr. van Deventer was also named to the Advisory Board of the Pacific Asian Center for Entrepreneurship and E-Business at the University of Hawaii Shidler College of Business in 2012. He served as a director of the Hawaii Bicycling League from 2005 to 2014. Dr. van Deventer also holds a degree in mathematics and economics from Occidental College, where he graduated second in his class, summa cum laude, and Phi Beta Kappa. Dr. van Deventer speaks Japanese and English.