Stephen Faulkner's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/983361/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460891/comments?source=feed#comment-19243261 19243261 Sat, 25 May 2013 13:04:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460891/comments?source=feed#comment-19242731 19242731 Sat, 25 May 2013 12:40:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460891/comments?source=feed#comment-19242711 19242711 Sat, 25 May 2013 12:39:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460891/comments?source=feed#comment-19241251 19241251 Sat, 25 May 2013 11:38:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460891/comments?source=feed#comment-19241211 19241211 Sat, 25 May 2013 11:35:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19237661 19237661 Sat, 25 May 2013 09:04:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19237641 19237641 Sat, 25 May 2013 09:03:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19237491 19237491
Not saying it will or won't work but it's not really investing. 3.57 is enough, you're out, and looking for a dip to buy back in. Nothing wrong with that at all :) ]]> Sat, 25 May 2013 08:56:14 -0400
Not saying it will or won't work but it's not really investing. 3.57 is enough, you're out, and looking for a dip to buy back in. Nothing wrong with that at all :) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19237391 19237391
If you want to figure value at expiration take the following formula (hope it's right I just woke up lol...)

A=Expected price at expiration
B=Option Strike
C=Option Cost
D=Gain %

D= (100*(A-B)/C)-100

So let's take my January 2014 $2's

A=$4.25
B=$2
C=$1.15

D=(100*($4.25-$2)/$1.1...

D=(100*($2.25)/$1.15)-100

D=(100*(1.956))-100

D=195.6-100

D=95.6% gain YOY at expiration if the share price reaches $4.25

The nice thing here is you can use this equation in a graphing program and plot all the different strikes to expiration if you use an assumption of share price at expiration

plot y=(100*(x-2)/1.15)-100

Throw that into google. Result is a graph of profit and loss for my January 2014 $2 calls. y is gain / loss, x is price at expiration

plot y=(100*(x-2)/1.15)-100, y=(100*(x-2.5)/.66)-100

Cut and paste that into google and you will get a graph of profit and loss for what I paid for my $2's compared to what I paid for my $2.50's. (keep in mind I rolled $2's into $2.50's only recently so I paid less in time for them).

Here's a cut and paste for google (last one... the rest you're on your own ! ;) ) of current prices on ask for Jan 2015's from $3 to $4.50 for gain / loss Y at expiration value X.

plot y=(100*(x-3)/.97)-100, y=(100*(x-3.5)/.67)-100, y=(100*(x-4)/.48)-100, y=(100*(x-4.5)/.37)-100

It should be very apparent by the resulting graph that Jan 2015 $3.50 calls are your best bet out of those 4 strikes IF you expect share price of $5 near expiration. The $4's do not exceed on gain until beyond about $5.25, and the $4.50 calls do not exceed the others on gain until a whopping $6.25+

Well that came out to be longer than I expected ... :P]]> Sat, 25 May 2013 08:51:22 -0400
If you want to figure value at expiration take the following formula (hope it's right I just woke up lol...)

A=Expected price at expiration
B=Option Strike
C=Option Cost
D=Gain %

D= (100*(A-B)/C)-100

So let's take my January 2014 $2's

A=$4.25
B=$2
C=$1.15

D=(100*($4.25-$2)/$1.1...

D=(100*($2.25)/$1.15)-100

D=(100*(1.956))-100

D=195.6-100

D=95.6% gain YOY at expiration if the share price reaches $4.25

The nice thing here is you can use this equation in a graphing program and plot all the different strikes to expiration if you use an assumption of share price at expiration

plot y=(100*(x-2)/1.15)-100

Throw that into google. Result is a graph of profit and loss for my January 2014 $2 calls. y is gain / loss, x is price at expiration

plot y=(100*(x-2)/1.15)-100, y=(100*(x-2.5)/.66)-100

Cut and paste that into google and you will get a graph of profit and loss for what I paid for my $2's compared to what I paid for my $2.50's. (keep in mind I rolled $2's into $2.50's only recently so I paid less in time for them).

Here's a cut and paste for google (last one... the rest you're on your own ! ;) ) of current prices on ask for Jan 2015's from $3 to $4.50 for gain / loss Y at expiration value X.

plot y=(100*(x-3)/.97)-100, y=(100*(x-3.5)/.67)-100, y=(100*(x-4)/.48)-100, y=(100*(x-4.5)/.37)-100

It should be very apparent by the resulting graph that Jan 2015 $3.50 calls are your best bet out of those 4 strikes IF you expect share price of $5 near expiration. The $4's do not exceed on gain until beyond about $5.25, and the $4.50 calls do not exceed the others on gain until a whopping $6.25+

Well that came out to be longer than I expected ... :P]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19230111 19230111
You say you don't see much upside for SIRI but why? For what reason? Again there needs to be something driving a gut feeling...]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 21:37:55 -0400
You say you don't see much upside for SIRI but why? For what reason? Again there needs to be something driving a gut feeling...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19230001 19230001 Fri, 24 May 2013 21:29:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19229921 19229921
Buy and hold works great if you are disciplined, keep up with the company and never lose sight of your long term opinion, so long as the company does what you believe it should be doing. Is it a guarantee? No. But, for example, since LMCA came and bailed out SIRI, buy and hold has worked for longs beautifully.

Trading has also worked, for those who are adept at such a thing. Timing highs and lows if you know what you are doing can work extremely well. It can also backfire and blow you out of the water faster than you can imagine.

Where people run into trouble is when a long becomes some sort of wannabe trader, zipping out and in on claims of peaks and valleys but not really understanding the dynamics behind the movement of the share price, or just getting unlucky. So many bailed back at the start of the year and lost out on gains from $2.90 up to $3.59 and what I believe soon to be $3.75 on foolish notions such as "fiscal cliff" or "sequester" or "gap fill" or other such things. How many "longs" ripped outta their positions because it was "dead money" or "everything is overbought" or "this bubble is about to burst" or "the fed is pumping an illusion" or "cyprus is going to bring down the world...."

Buy and hold works well if the buyer BUYS AND HOLDS and does not turn into a part time inexperienced trader attempting to be smart on the dips and rips. Remember that "nino90nino" guy that used to post all the nonsense on the SIRI articles? These guys disappear at the drop of a hat. They scream long then bail on SIRI at 2.40 claiming it won't go higher. They scream long then bail on AMD at 2.40 on a rebound and miss the largest gains in the coming months. Then they wait in cash for eons to buy back in or worse, short it like that guy and go under. You see them all the time. They're the names that pop up and scream caution and vanish like a fart in the wind when caution turned out to be the wrong play.

One of the reasons I write that buy and hold should be fine on SIRI is because I believe they will. If buy and hold wants to time anything, HOLD and time additions or BUYS only. Worst case you buy a peak in an uptrend and face a paper loss for a few months. Best case? You buy a dip at a discount. It's also why I am ... somewhat hostile towards the bears. The guys that come in and scream all this nonsense, look out for this and that, etc. I know you recently sold and I am not referring to you so please don't think I am :) But I think you could pick out some of the more familiar names who do this that I am referring to here.

Bears always sound so smart... and we're always told that you should always be cautious, to the point that the bull who believes in his or her investment looks like the perma-fool. But cautious has lost, and lost hard, since 2009 in the entire market. Buy and hold has seen almost a TRIPLE since the depths of 2009 when considering the SPY.

Buy and hold isn't the strategy of yesteryear. At all. And if SIRI goes down in the short term I maintain it should be a very good buying opportunity. There will be a time to sell for the longer term holder. Now is not it, and if one must sell in the short term I maintain wait for near $3.75.]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 21:26:50 -0400
Buy and hold works great if you are disciplined, keep up with the company and never lose sight of your long term opinion, so long as the company does what you believe it should be doing. Is it a guarantee? No. But, for example, since LMCA came and bailed out SIRI, buy and hold has worked for longs beautifully.

Trading has also worked, for those who are adept at such a thing. Timing highs and lows if you know what you are doing can work extremely well. It can also backfire and blow you out of the water faster than you can imagine.

Where people run into trouble is when a long becomes some sort of wannabe trader, zipping out and in on claims of peaks and valleys but not really understanding the dynamics behind the movement of the share price, or just getting unlucky. So many bailed back at the start of the year and lost out on gains from $2.90 up to $3.59 and what I believe soon to be $3.75 on foolish notions such as "fiscal cliff" or "sequester" or "gap fill" or other such things. How many "longs" ripped outta their positions because it was "dead money" or "everything is overbought" or "this bubble is about to burst" or "the fed is pumping an illusion" or "cyprus is going to bring down the world...."

Buy and hold works well if the buyer BUYS AND HOLDS and does not turn into a part time inexperienced trader attempting to be smart on the dips and rips. Remember that "nino90nino" guy that used to post all the nonsense on the SIRI articles? These guys disappear at the drop of a hat. They scream long then bail on SIRI at 2.40 claiming it won't go higher. They scream long then bail on AMD at 2.40 on a rebound and miss the largest gains in the coming months. Then they wait in cash for eons to buy back in or worse, short it like that guy and go under. You see them all the time. They're the names that pop up and scream caution and vanish like a fart in the wind when caution turned out to be the wrong play.

One of the reasons I write that buy and hold should be fine on SIRI is because I believe they will. If buy and hold wants to time anything, HOLD and time additions or BUYS only. Worst case you buy a peak in an uptrend and face a paper loss for a few months. Best case? You buy a dip at a discount. It's also why I am ... somewhat hostile towards the bears. The guys that come in and scream all this nonsense, look out for this and that, etc. I know you recently sold and I am not referring to you so please don't think I am :) But I think you could pick out some of the more familiar names who do this that I am referring to here.

Bears always sound so smart... and we're always told that you should always be cautious, to the point that the bull who believes in his or her investment looks like the perma-fool. But cautious has lost, and lost hard, since 2009 in the entire market. Buy and hold has seen almost a TRIPLE since the depths of 2009 when considering the SPY.

Buy and hold isn't the strategy of yesteryear. At all. And if SIRI goes down in the short term I maintain it should be a very good buying opportunity. There will be a time to sell for the longer term holder. Now is not it, and if one must sell in the short term I maintain wait for near $3.75.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1420951/comments?source=feed#comment-19229481 19229481 Fri, 24 May 2013 21:02:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19225601 19225601 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:56:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19225501 19225501 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:53:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19225481 19225481 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:53:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19225461 19225461 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:52:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19225391 19225391
The $3's have $0.13 tacked on or about 3.6% over current pricing. You should take the time to educate yourself on options and how this will decay over time and what would be your best choice to roll them forward if you want.

Keep in mind SIRI is NOT in pullback mode here. It's being supported on a trend and rising. Bad time to buy calls, in my opinion.

If you wish to follow what I am doing, I am looking for a move up to near $3.75 where I am going to liquidate my position for some dividend plays in June, and I'm expecting consolidation there and a retrace to the $3.50 level for a buy in. So if you're rolling forward and wanted to follow me you'd sell the options off when the share price approached $3.75 then wait for a pullback to near $3.50 for the subsequent buy on the 2015's.

As to what strike? I currently have a $5 target for EOY 2014 which is probably on the light side but the further out you go the more conservative I get. 2015's go for $0.48 on the $4's and $0.97 on the $3's. Think about it... if the price goes to $5 they BOTH just about double. BUT if the share price in 2015 stops at, say $4.50 then you about break even on the $4's but you would have gained 50% on the $3's.

There is very little advantage to the $4's even though they are cheaper and you can buy more of them.... gains are less until you get a bit over $5 and it takes a good amount of time to outpace the $3's substantially. I would go with the $3's or at most, the $3.50's. ]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 17:50:25 -0400
The $3's have $0.13 tacked on or about 3.6% over current pricing. You should take the time to educate yourself on options and how this will decay over time and what would be your best choice to roll them forward if you want.

Keep in mind SIRI is NOT in pullback mode here. It's being supported on a trend and rising. Bad time to buy calls, in my opinion.

If you wish to follow what I am doing, I am looking for a move up to near $3.75 where I am going to liquidate my position for some dividend plays in June, and I'm expecting consolidation there and a retrace to the $3.50 level for a buy in. So if you're rolling forward and wanted to follow me you'd sell the options off when the share price approached $3.75 then wait for a pullback to near $3.50 for the subsequent buy on the 2015's.

As to what strike? I currently have a $5 target for EOY 2014 which is probably on the light side but the further out you go the more conservative I get. 2015's go for $0.48 on the $4's and $0.97 on the $3's. Think about it... if the price goes to $5 they BOTH just about double. BUT if the share price in 2015 stops at, say $4.50 then you about break even on the $4's but you would have gained 50% on the $3's.

There is very little advantage to the $4's even though they are cheaper and you can buy more of them.... gains are less until you get a bit over $5 and it takes a good amount of time to outpace the $3's substantially. I would go with the $3's or at most, the $3.50's. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19224701 19224701
It's hard to explain my strategy but I use margin to trade (and I have only been "day trading" for about a month now). Today I bought 3.52 and sold 3.57 for example, and I told the chat room I am in these prices before market open, and my reasoning was that 3.52 was a penny above what I figured the day's low would be, and 3.57 was a penny below where I expect us to hit a high. 3.51 was the 50 SMA on the 60 min chart and 3.58 was a penny under our all time high. I expected today to be green as there was little room for it (in my opinion) to be red. It's only 1.4% but let me tell you that adds up quickly if you can swing it over and over. Then again you can lose big as well... this is not something I jumped into lightly and this is my first foray after watching the market for about 10 years, and over the last year very closely.

My suggestion to you, if you wish to try trading, is to spend MONTHS doing it on paper and also spend hours of every day over those months reading, watching other traders, and learning how momentum works as well as market psychology.

$25k is the minimum you can have in equity for a pattern day trader account, and I would suggest $50k minimum to be safe. You get 400% margin on that which gives you a considerable amount to work with, though I'd suggest not trading more than your actual equity.

Teach yourself FIRST, start SLOW when you do, and make sure whatever you are doing WORKS before you step it up. I jumped into buying options in 2011 and lost $50k in a month (I had only written covered calls before). Yeah I was gonna make a million dollars ..... Don't do dumb stuff like I did :)]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 17:38:58 -0400
It's hard to explain my strategy but I use margin to trade (and I have only been "day trading" for about a month now). Today I bought 3.52 and sold 3.57 for example, and I told the chat room I am in these prices before market open, and my reasoning was that 3.52 was a penny above what I figured the day's low would be, and 3.57 was a penny below where I expect us to hit a high. 3.51 was the 50 SMA on the 60 min chart and 3.58 was a penny under our all time high. I expected today to be green as there was little room for it (in my opinion) to be red. It's only 1.4% but let me tell you that adds up quickly if you can swing it over and over. Then again you can lose big as well... this is not something I jumped into lightly and this is my first foray after watching the market for about 10 years, and over the last year very closely.

My suggestion to you, if you wish to try trading, is to spend MONTHS doing it on paper and also spend hours of every day over those months reading, watching other traders, and learning how momentum works as well as market psychology.

$25k is the minimum you can have in equity for a pattern day trader account, and I would suggest $50k minimum to be safe. You get 400% margin on that which gives you a considerable amount to work with, though I'd suggest not trading more than your actual equity.

Teach yourself FIRST, start SLOW when you do, and make sure whatever you are doing WORKS before you step it up. I jumped into buying options in 2011 and lost $50k in a month (I had only written covered calls before). Yeah I was gonna make a million dollars ..... Don't do dumb stuff like I did :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19224171 19224171 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:25:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19224101 19224101 Fri, 24 May 2013 17:21:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19224091 19224091
Who says the market is overbought, or that silver and gold are oversold? :) Be careful....

From a chart perspective (using SLV and GLD) looks like SLV has a bit to go down yet, maybe 25%, and while GLD is at some point of support if this breaks it could drop another 33%

I don't see bottoming forming in either of them currently.

Then again I don't follow SLV and GLD, these are just quick glance judgements]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 17:20:50 -0400
Who says the market is overbought, or that silver and gold are oversold? :) Be careful....

From a chart perspective (using SLV and GLD) looks like SLV has a bit to go down yet, maybe 25%, and while GLD is at some point of support if this breaks it could drop another 33%

I don't see bottoming forming in either of them currently.

Then again I don't follow SLV and GLD, these are just quick glance judgements]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19215531 19215531 Fri, 24 May 2013 13:52:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19213411 19213411 Fri, 24 May 2013 13:03:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19209841 19209841
Honest question, but why do you continue to read and comment on my articles? You do remember what you wrote here :

"I think that it is very unfair to those SA contributors who have been earning a nice piece of change from SA for their Sirius overcoverage to suddenly have to compete for the Sirius investor's attention with all these johnny-come-latelies. I guess it's hard to keep a good thing to yourself, but really, new regulars Faulkner, Nadeem Moulvi, VFC's Stock House. And you have Crunching Numbers and Little Apple recycling ancient news from the Cramer interview under big new headlines. Perhaps Sirius investors should try to remain loyal to the SA contributors who have been overcovering Sirius for the longest time, before everyone decided to horn in"

And here :

"I never like to get my update from Stephen Faulkner because the next negative comment from him on Sirius will be his first negative comment on Sirius. "

I just don't get it.]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 11:46:51 -0400
Honest question, but why do you continue to read and comment on my articles? You do remember what you wrote here :

"I think that it is very unfair to those SA contributors who have been earning a nice piece of change from SA for their Sirius overcoverage to suddenly have to compete for the Sirius investor's attention with all these johnny-come-latelies. I guess it's hard to keep a good thing to yourself, but really, new regulars Faulkner, Nadeem Moulvi, VFC's Stock House. And you have Crunching Numbers and Little Apple recycling ancient news from the Cramer interview under big new headlines. Perhaps Sirius investors should try to remain loyal to the SA contributors who have been overcovering Sirius for the longest time, before everyone decided to horn in"

And here :

"I never like to get my update from Stephen Faulkner because the next negative comment from him on Sirius will be his first negative comment on Sirius. "

I just don't get it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19201691 19201691 Fri, 24 May 2013 09:15:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19198191 19198191 Fri, 24 May 2013 07:20:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19198121 19198121 Fri, 24 May 2013 07:19:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19187381 19187381
If they do, they do, though. I think too much time and energy is put into trying to figure out, to the penny, what Liberty Media is going to do here in a very specific sense. I think a more general approach suits better, and staves off a lot of unnecesary headaches :)]]> Thu, 23 May 2013 20:19:08 -0400
If they do, they do, though. I think too much time and energy is put into trying to figure out, to the penny, what Liberty Media is going to do here in a very specific sense. I think a more general approach suits better, and staves off a lot of unnecesary headaches :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1457931/comments?source=feed#comment-19185861 19185861
That said one could probably make a killing doing buy writes on P on a monthly basis.]]> Thu, 23 May 2013 19:27:04 -0400
That said one could probably make a killing doing buy writes on P on a monthly basis.]]>