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chazsf

chazsf
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  • Sell Anglo American Before It Gets Worse [View article]
    In the last earnings call, I read management as presenting a turn-around story. How did you read the transcript?
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: What Happens Once The Cash Pile Runs Out? [View article]
    "I know that market events turned against SD, but better management would not have been so self-centered and self-serving."

    In general, I agree with you. I feel sorry for those who paid up for SandRidge, particularly at peak prices of $60+.

    However, I do not see why another company would buy SandRidge and its debt load when individual assets are likely to be offered for sale debt-free.

    Also, any lawsuit recovery would likely be limited to the amount of D&O insurance SandRidge carries.

    Lastly, unlike some others I will likely not be bullish on US natural gas prices until LNG exports actually start.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Chevron Corporation [View article]
    "do you know the breakdown of Brent to WTI for their sales?"

    Assuming there are only two benchmarks is a level of simplicity better reserved for television. EIR reported yesterday's (3/3/15) benchmarks:
    Brent: $61.18
    Louisiana Light: $56.98
    WTI: $50.43

    http://1.usa.gov/14SQcYm

    A lot of Gulf Coast production is tied to LLS.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quest For European Shale Gas Disappoints [View article]
    I wonder where and, especially, when might the natural gas be marketed.
    - Pipeline to Europe?
    - Pipelines to near East countries?
    - LNG facilities on shore Israel or Cyprus?

    Given the slow pace of the Israeli government and necessarily long lead times for facility construction, the "when" might be so far away that discounting back to today yields very little present value.
    Mar 1, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Chevron Corporation [View article]
    Citing yourself? Not cool.
    Mar 1, 2015. 12:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    "EXCO ended the year with ~$1,370 million of net debt. On the other hand, the company reported 2014 year-end PV-10 of just $1.15 billion, using strip pricing (the PV-10 is $1.5 billion, using SEC pricing of $4.35 per MMBtu for natural gas and $95 per barrel for oil)."

    Think what would have happened to the PV-10 if current market prices were used. As SEC pricing declines, expect hits to the PV-10 asset values.

    Of course, EXCO is hardly unique among independent E&P companies in being debt challenged. Tread carefully in this space ...
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Push Back: Costs Of A Rising Dollar [View article]
    "US companies service foreign demand primarily through a foreign direct investment strategy. Build local. Sell local. The sales by majority owned affiliates of US multinational companies outstrips US exports by a factor of more than four."

    Good point.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Oil Price Declines Coming - Myths And Realities [View article]
    Perhaps there is confusion between "US production" and "US shale production"?

    Offshore Gulf of Mexico takes a lot longer than four months start to finish.
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Oil Price Declines Coming - Myths And Realities [View article]
    That article was about pricing, so no help on overall US production volumes.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Financial Statements Have Morningstar And Me Muddled [View article]
    "I am assuming that GM threw everything - including the kitchen sink - at their recalls in 2014."

    Agree. The new CEO is cleaning out the closet.
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Oil Price Declines Coming - Myths And Realities [View article]
    Counting rigs in shale country is fine, but when do you expect to see a drop in US production?
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still no agreement in U.S. refinery strike talks [View news story]
    Between Shell, Lyondell, Marathon Petroleum and Tesoro only Shell has upstream production, and Shell has refineries all over the world to receive their crude production.
    Feb 22, 2015. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Turnaround: Diverging From 2008 - Sort Of [View article]
    "Have you every heard of someone buying oil in the present and paying a rental fee to leave it in the ground until they want it?"

    Check out Volumetric Production Payments:
    http://bit.ly/JwXQ2h
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $54 Billion Question For Chevron's Shareholders, Will Gorgon Be Operational This Year? [View article]
    The start date for Gorgon LNG shipments is indeed "the question" facing Chevron.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon: Please Lord, Don't Buy BP [View article]
    "Isn't methane a worse pollution gas than nat gas?"

    Methane is "dry" natural gas.
    Feb 18, 2015. 01:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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