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  • 4 Developments To Note While The U.S. Is On Holiday [View article]
    "IT would cripple American markets and make German and European companies look even more attractive with cheap valuations."

    While this issue is supremely important to the Greek people, it has less impact on the Europeans and almost no impact on the Americans. I think it is a mistake to believe that threats from Tsipras or Varoufakis will have any impact.
    Jul 4, 2015. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAI International: Pushing Past Standardized & Commoditized [View article]
    Thanks for the read.
    Jul 2, 2015. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Higher U.S. Natural Gas Prices Should Help Low Cost Producer Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    "It's the fallacy of this assumption that I asserted, not how it's calculated."

    The pricing is a rolling 12 month historical period, so I do not think it will be wildly off.

    At the same time, I invited others to attempt a more precise calculation. Are you game?
    Jul 2, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Has Stability Finally Come? [View article]
    "BBEP also raised $1 billion in high-yield capital from EIG ($650 million in senior secured notes and $350 million in perpetual convertible preferred units) to shore up its balance sheet. This will require ~$90 million in preferred dividend payments and interest"

    I think this makes sense only if Breitburn uses the billion raised to buy additional assets. Any idea what they might be looking at?
    Jul 2, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake to sell Oklahoma assets to private company for $840M [View news story]
    This is probably a good deal for Chesapeake.

    They had previously sold $1.25 billion of Preferred shares in wholly owned subsidiary Chesapeake Tonkawa, an entity that holds Chesapeake's interest in the Tonkawa formation. Holders of the Preferred receive 6% in dividends plus a 3.75% royalty interest on the covered production. That seems expensive to me, and selling the subsidiary to the current Preferred holders gets them out of those dividend and royalty obligations.
    Jul 1, 2015. 07:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Higher U.S. Natural Gas Prices Should Help Low Cost Producer Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    SEC write downs can occur at the close of each calendar quarter, when reported shareholder equity exceeds the net present worth ceiling test. As the test using rolling 12 month pricing periods, we will see sequential write downs for Q2, Q3 and Q4 - unless oil & gas pricing improves significantly.

    Shareholder equity was $18.5 billion at the end of 2014, and $14.4 billion at the end of Q1 2015. If we assume everything just rolls forward, that would give $10.3 billion at the end of Q2, $6.2 billion at the end of Q3 and $2.1 billion at the end of Q4 2015 (or $3.18 per share).

    Perhaps those who have the time will want to re-do the calculations with actual historical pricing and projected future revenues and expenses - but you get the general direction.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Higher U.S. Natural Gas Prices Should Help Low Cost Producer Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    "In its Q1 2015 earnings report, Chesapeake Energy took an impairment charge of $4.976B. CHK wrote down the value of its oil & gas properties/reserves due to the large drop in the rolling 12-month, first-day-of-the-month average price of its commodities: oil, natural gas, and NGLs. Its GAAP net loss was -$3.782B (or -$5.72 per fully diluted share)."

    Shareholders should expect to see the same thing in the Q2 2015 earnings report ...
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Steps In The Greek Drama [View article]
    Surprisingly enough, not California. Governor Brown has been fiscally conservative - except for the high speed train between LA and SF.
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Freeport McMoRan's Upcoming Energy Spin-Off Won't Help Shareholders [View article]
    Any chance of a management change?
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Does Greece Actually Get Scary? [View article]
    "I think it might make more sense if UK left EU and formed a separate trading block with Scandinavian countries and Baltic states"

    The UK was one of the founding members of the EFTA (European Free Trade Union) in 1960, but later withdrew along with other countries to join the EU.

    A small version of the EFTA still exists today with Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland as members.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabinet: Greek banks to stay shut for six days; capital controls placed [View news story]
    "The government is urging citizens to vote against creditor proposals in next Sunday's referendum."

    Tspiras will not back the deal he negotiated! Looks like the ECB will be out a whole bunch of money. Those countries that stayed out of the Euro currency are looking smarter ...
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Major stock futures, euro tumble in reaction to Greece news [View news story]
    "Um, what did Greece ever rule over?"

    Both Xenophon and Alexander the Great conquered present day Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Iran and Iran.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources sinks after negative short-seller report [View news story]
    In the 10-Q for 1Q 2015. CRC reported operating cash flows of $115 million which were more than offset by investing cash flows of -$313 million. Of the $313 million in investments, $137 million was tagged as "changes in capital investment accruals". I assume that was a one-off charge but I could not find an explanation in the accompanying notes.

    Absent that charge, the net cash flow deficit for the quarter would have been $25 million. CRC has indicated they will make further capex reductions as necessary to live within their cash flows.

    For the moment, I am buying management's story.
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Is Playing A Waiting Game [View article]
    "You're making the mistake of assuming that the drilling & completion will continue along a straight line. They can reduce this to balance the cash flows."

    Chesapeake's management presentations are still full of amazing drilling prospects and not at all about living within one's means. Perhaps management will re-focus on cash flow as the year wears on, but it appears that time has not arrived.
    Jun 28, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Greece Strategy [View article]
    "My Greece Strategy"

    Bizarre title for a story about US domestic focused stocks.
    Jun 28, 2015. 12:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment