Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
Oh Charlie, cut the crap already. It's because of people like you whining and b*tching to SA that we were deprived of Phil's contributions for a lengthy period of time. You and your ilk are exactly the reason for the phrase "throwing out the baby with the bathwater".
To extend some of GreenRiver's remarks, which I mostly agree with, it is not a bad thing at all that menial jobs be slowly purged from the world. There will be a greater and greater class disparity between "the have*s" and "the have-nots", in accordance with the principles of capitalism... it is a pseudo-natural selection process.
Human minds are capable of far greater things than menial tasks so we should not mourn the loss of such jobs. We know that in the future, it likely should be possible to replace almost any one of your damaged organs with an exact copy grown in the lab, using your own DNA... the most important organ, the brain, may be an exception, but if/when that day finally arrives, you theoretically have a bridge to immortality... why would any reasonable human being not prefer to pursue more worthwhile endeavors such as this--or numerous other examples--with the vast resources of their minds instead of flipping burgers or answering phone calls for the rest of their lives, if given the choice?
The number doesn't matter. You cannot create wealth by creating more paper. Whether Dow hits 20K, 30K, or 50K, the only thing that is certain is that--without improvement in the core economic fundamentals--it has gone down when priced in terms of REAL dollars.
The market is still nowhere near historic highs when inflation is considered.
The Most Nagging Question About Stocks [View article]
Can you elaborate on your method of estimating 1.2 million bearish-minded "freaks"? Also, do you have any data to show that the 1.2 million smallest players in the market actually have more buying/selling power than just a handful of the largest players (I have "data" to support otherwise)? You would need to prove both before some of your other arguments could even be considered.
Monday Market Movement: Time To Sell In May [View article]
It is a big mistake to use any data from ZH to make market decisions in the short-term or even intermediate-term. The divergence between macro data and the equity market has been going on far longer than the past 60 days, try maybe 4 years.
The market won't crash until September, at the earliest, IMO. I have a pretty good guess at what the magical date is when that will happen. I base this guess not only on the projection of a confluence of macro and technical factors that are aiming for month #9, but also on the assumption that the market is manipulated, and the manipulators are very twisted, evil, mentally disturbed *word that rhymes with trucks*
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index:-15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index:-15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
It's not quite as easy as you say. Market is hungry for that final inflationary leg that forcibly drags retailers in and major news that it has to wait longer for that to happen can sometimes call for a brief sell-off... "May" see that happen soon.
Of course, the time to really sell and GTFO of the market is when it is reported that the economy is booming.
Why The Fed Doesn't Fear Inflation, But You Do [View article]
I disagree that the Fed does not see problems coming. They have the most access to knowledge and information about our economic metrics than any other entity on the planet.
They know what they are doing--the only question is, who are they really working for? The day Apple pre-announced a miss on earnings last year, and as the stock market began to tumble, the Fed instantly began running its mouth, thru some media leak... they reassured the markets that even MORE liquidity was coming and the market quickly stopped its losses and began turning back up! That was no coincidence, lest you also believe the dozens of other similar incidents were all coincidence as well.
I've made massive money shorting FB twice going into earnings using puts. If I had been a little more aggressive, maybe betting a few thousand dollars instead of a few hundred on those puts, I'd be a millionaire just off those two trades!
Now, I'm wondering if i should go to the well one more time. Anyone with any sense at all realizes that FB is a scam (the only people who do not believe this are people who were not trading the markets during the "dotcom boom and bust" 13 years ago).
However, that said I also know intimately how the stock market works... just because something is made of turd, doesn't mean they can't make it float!
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
We are due for a seasonal correction, that like all the others, will be muted. Barring a new debt crisis market should resume its uptrend after that, but even with a new crisis, we will get commensurate liquidity by Fed to compensate.
Make no mistake, Fed bond-buying money is being used in a roundabout way to buy US stocks. When Fed takes away the candy we are going aaalllll the way back to 2009 levels. However, that probably just won't happen UNTIL the economy really starts improving. We will need to see unemployment fall probably under 6% (not 6.5%), GDP surge, and corporations to start reporting improved top line growth... none of that happens until corporations actually start USING all that free Fed money....
....and when that happens you should see four things: 1) inflation 2) a surge of retail investors reading happy headlines (and having jobs now) 3) stock market start to sell-off, because of... 4) Fed not only shuts down QE but withdraws liquidity rapidly due to #1.
I see a stock market sell-off happening 1-2 years down the line followed by years of stagnation.... when we finally get through that, a new bull market should emerge provided our national brain power has come up with new, innovative world-changing technologies
Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer? [View article]
The author has written a great article that has forced me to really think about things in a new light--well this and some other pieces of information like the recent Bloomberg report of Paulsen being down another $300 million in gold investments.
I won't go into it in detail, but as a former permabear, I am CONVINCED that this market is nowhere near done going up (altho it may be due for a little breather heading into May and then the summer). Surprisingly, it is for the very reasons the author has pointed out! I will elaborate later.
Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer? [View article]
It doesn't have to rise FOREVER... it just has to rise long enough to break the necks of every bear. Remember that the next time you short.... when I started having nightmares of the market shooting up against me in the face of bad news, I stopped shorting and starting going long... haven't looked back since, but I also don't hold anything overnight because I know this is a ticking time bomb.
I don't know why the GOP hates Obama so much... Republicans are supposed to be more well-to-do than lazy, mooching Democrats and their portfolios should be bursting at the seems.
Obama has helped Wall Street more than any other President in history. Poor people think Obama is on their side when the record shows he has helped the rich become richer than ever.
Are we really still the greatest nation on Earth when we have produced back-to-back incompetents as our Leaders for 8 years a piece?
More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015. [View news story]
No clear indication that the economy is strong? Strong compared to what, Zimbabwe?
CBS (CBS) says it had exploratory talks with cable operators about taking local stations signals off the air and moving them to cable. The dramatic threat is part of a measured response by major broadcasters to the disruption Aereo poses with its streaming model and potential partnership with Dish Network (DISH). Also exploring the nuclear option: Fox, Univision. [View news story]
Idiots. Their content will be stolen, streamed, and advertiser revenue will plummet. The cable companies are NOT their friends, they are the enemy because they enable unlimited amounts of bootlegging and illegal activities for about $50/month.
Nobody needs 40Mbps downloads for web-browsing, email, or even streaming video.
Market Outlook 2015-2045 - Men Vs. Machines [View article]
To extend some of GreenRiver's remarks, which I mostly agree with, it is not a bad thing at all that menial jobs be slowly purged from the world. There will be a greater and greater class disparity between "the have*s" and "the have-nots", in accordance with the principles of capitalism... it is a pseudo-natural selection process.
Human minds are capable of far greater things than menial tasks so we should not mourn the loss of such jobs. We know that in the future, it likely should be possible to replace almost any one of your damaged organs with an exact copy grown in the lab, using your own DNA... the most important organ, the brain, may be an exception, but if/when that day finally arrives, you theoretically have a bridge to immortality... why would any reasonable human being not prefer to pursue more worthwhile endeavors such as this--or numerous other examples--with the vast resources of their minds instead of flipping burgers or answering phone calls for the rest of their lives, if given the choice?
Dow 20K - A Halfway Update [View article]
The market is still nowhere near historic highs when inflation is considered.
The Most Nagging Question About Stocks [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Time To Sell In May [View article]
The market won't crash until September, at the earliest, IMO. I have a pretty good guess at what the magical date is when that will happen. I base this guess not only on the projection of a confluence of macro and technical factors that are aiming for month #9, but also on the assumption that the market is manipulated, and the manipulators are very twisted, evil, mentally disturbed *word that rhymes with trucks*
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3. [View news story]
Of course, the time to really sell and GTFO of the market is when it is reported that the economy is booming.
Why The Fed Doesn't Fear Inflation, But You Do [View article]
They know what they are doing--the only question is, who are they really working for? The day Apple pre-announced a miss on earnings last year, and as the stock market began to tumble, the Fed instantly began running its mouth, thru some media leak... they reassured the markets that even MORE liquidity was coming and the market quickly stopped its losses and began turning back up! That was no coincidence, lest you also believe the dozens of other similar incidents were all coincidence as well.
3 Reasons To Short Facebook [View article]
Now, I'm wondering if i should go to the well one more time. Anyone with any sense at all realizes that FB is a scam (the only people who do not believe this are people who were not trading the markets during the "dotcom boom and bust" 13 years ago).
However, that said I also know intimately how the stock market works... just because something is made of turd, doesn't mean they can't make it float!
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
Make no mistake, Fed bond-buying money is being used in a roundabout way to buy US stocks. When Fed takes away the candy we are going aaalllll the way back to 2009 levels. However, that probably just won't happen UNTIL the economy really starts improving. We will need to see unemployment fall probably under 6% (not 6.5%), GDP surge, and corporations to start reporting improved top line growth... none of that happens until corporations actually start USING all that free Fed money....
....and when that happens you should see four things: 1) inflation 2) a surge of retail investors reading happy headlines (and having jobs now) 3) stock market start to sell-off, because of... 4) Fed not only shuts down QE but withdraws liquidity rapidly due to #1.
I see a stock market sell-off happening 1-2 years down the line followed by years of stagnation.... when we finally get through that, a new bull market should emerge provided our national brain power has come up with new, innovative world-changing technologies
Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer? [View article]
I won't go into it in detail, but as a former permabear, I am CONVINCED that this market is nowhere near done going up (altho it may be due for a little breather heading into May and then the summer). Surprisingly, it is for the very reasons the author has pointed out! I will elaborate later.
Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer? [View article]
March Retail Sales: -0.4% vs. +0.1% expected, +1% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.1% expected. [View news story]
Obama has helped Wall Street more than any other President in history. Poor people think Obama is on their side when the record shows he has helped the rich become richer than ever.
Are we really still the greatest nation on Earth when we have produced back-to-back incompetents as our Leaders for 8 years a piece?
Initial Jobless Claims: -42K to 346K vs. 388K consensus, 385K prior (revised). Continuing claims -12K to 3.08M. [View news story]
More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015. [View news story]
CBS (CBS) says it had exploratory talks with cable operators about taking local stations signals off the air and moving them to cable. The dramatic threat is part of a measured response by major broadcasters to the disruption Aereo poses with its streaming model and potential partnership with Dish Network (DISH). Also exploring the nuclear option: Fox, Univision. [View news story]
Nobody needs 40Mbps downloads for web-browsing, email, or even streaming video.