David Gille attempts to explain the collapse in the 2X VIX ETN (TVIX -27.6%) even as the VIX ETF (VXX +2.7%) surges. Unlike ETFs, an ETN in certain instances can have little correlation to the index it is tracking, so selling/buying can drive it far from underlying value. The TVIX premium to NAV got far too high, and now is correcting. [View news story]
Yes, I would appreciate any informative replies to Jdawg147's question. This thing isn't just tracking air is it? It has to have some connection to 2x volatility (put:call ratio), correct? Can it turn back up if volatility should suddenly increase?
Also, all ETNs will eventually go to zero, so this is not news, but isn't that due to accumulation of decay? What is the near-term future of TVIX?
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Wall Street trades more $$$ on a good day then the combined direct (not indirect) monetary damage done on 9/11.
Government spending is probably at least 70% of GDP growth, and since the bulk of that government money ultimately came from debt (which we have now decided we will finance thru printing fake money), the tax you speak of is dwarfed by the REAL tax on citizens--that of inflation.
It is this cataclysmic storm of inflation on the horizon that turn into the "tax" that ultimately breaks the camel's back.
Roger Lowenstein pens an epic love letter to Ben Bernanke in The Atlantic. "The left hates him. The right hates him even more. But Ben Bernanke saved the economy - and has navigated masterfully through the most trying of times." Whatever one's opinion of the man thankfully not yet being called "The Maestro," stuff like this tends to come a lot closer to market tops than bottoms. [View news story]
There should be a rule: no judging a Fed chairman until at least 5 years after they have left their post.
A few bulls switched over to the bearish side, according to the AAII sentiment survey for the week ended March 7. The percentage of bulls decreased by 2.1% to 42.4%, matched by an increase in the bears to 29%. Bullish sentiment remains well below the frothy 50%+ levels seen in early February. [View news story]
Of course, they tell you that when bullish sentiment is sky-high it is a contrarian indicator. So much for that theory, huh? Buffet and others have said to sell when everyone else is greedy. That didn't work.
Back when the economy was actually starting to improve (in latter half 2011) the stock market tanked. Now, based on lagging data the market is going up? Meanwhile, there are nothing but ticking time bombs ahead and the market wants to still continue to go up? FED-induced manipulation. Greenspan was a stock market killer, continually raising interest rates as the stock market went up.. but Bernanke has done the opposite and sacrificed America's future solely to prop up the equity market. Years from now, millions of Americans will get hurt financially--many will perish--because of his actions today. Why has he not been arrested?
Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls:+227K vs. consensus of +215K, +284K (revised from 243K) in Jan. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours, inline. Average hourly earnings +0.1%. [View news story]
If you just took the trillions of fake Bernanke dollars injected into the system and used it to hire people directly, not only would the UE rate have been ZERO, but the participation rate would've climbed massively as well.
Bernanke will be hailed as a savior in the short run, but ultimately, America's financial system will be completely destroyed as a result of his actions. People found out years after Greenspan retired how much damage he actually helped bring about, and this guy Bernanke is far, FAR more dangerous.
Is IBM Fairly Valued At $200? Watson's Not Saying [View article]
Literally "go to the moon"? So Watson is building spacecrafts now?
Seriously tho, Watson is the greatest work of AI the public has ever seen.... it is still greatly inferior to the human mind in many respects, but for what it was designed to do, I think it rivals the Internet itself as a breakthru in information technology.
The only thing is, it would seemingly require a ton of new programming for each specific type of problem it is asked to solve. Yes, no, maybe?
McDonald's (MCD) same store sales rise 7.5% in February. Breakdown by region: +11.1% in U.S., +4% in Europe, +2.4% in Asia/South Pacific, Middle East, Africa. The company mentions Japan and the timing of the Chinese New Year as influencing the apparently weak Asia number. Shares -2.9% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
Why does it make no sense? Much more rapid growth was priced in... it's just like if Apple ONLY grew by 25% year over year it would plummet to hell.
Markets Point To Economic Recovery In 2012 [View article]
Yes, markets may predict what's ahead for the economy (altho the relationship is not entirely free of causality), but what does that have to do with predicting where the market itself will go? Before the financial crisis of 2008 hit the stock market, it was plainly evident to many of us MONTHS before it happened that it was due... the market was VERY late in figuring it out. The market is a herd, not a leader.
...enjoy the RISING unemployment number that will be coming out tomorrow, because the market is acting like it either has no clue or doesn't care.
Stocks are undervalued at current levels, and more and more investors are realizing that, coming off the sidelines and back into the stock market, observes Abby Joseph Cohen. Using one particular metric, the S&P 500 is pricing in a 7% decline in corporate profits for each of the next five years. "That’s possible," Cohen says, "but it’s not likely." [View news story]
Oh sideline money definitely wants in--as soon as the Dow is trading at where it should be, around 5000.
Until then, Wall Street will have to rape itself to death.
Buy AMD: It Can Thrive In The Face Of Intel's Dominance [View article]
A few years ago, AMD forced Intel to do something it hadn't been doing for nearly a decade: be innovative. The new CPU micro-architecture by Intel was as revolutionary as anything it had ever done before, and it proceeded to pummel AMD not thru having a better balance sheet but thru better technology.
AMD, on the other hand, seemed to run out of fresh ideas, choosing to parlay its rapid growth from 1998-2006 into to buying techonology, chiefly ATI. It hasn't worked out so well. I only see an opportunity for AMD to re-emerge if Intel takes its "eye off the ball". As before, AMD's potential for success rests more on Intel's potential for failure.
Gasoline Price Increases: Prelude To The Next Recession? [View article]
Those arguing that rising gas prices are not that big of a bite on the consumer are missing the bigger picture. The rising gas prices are a result of rising OIL prices. Oil is so fundamental a raw good with respect to the whole economy, a small rise in oil prices has a multiplier effect, causing orders of magnitude larger effect on the economy. A large change in oil prices in a short time can completely KNOCKOUT an economy.
Spain's Fiscal Deficit Deepens: Attempt To Close Gap Through Austerity Would Cause Economic Collapse [View article]
I don't believe that the unfolding of this crisis is "very near". If Europe has proven one thing, it is that they are even better at printing TIME than Bernanke is at printing electronic MONEY... if they push out the evolving Spain crisis the way they did with Greece, it could be well past 2014 before any serious, long-term damage... equity markets will continue to be so volatile that any "sideline money" that dares test the waters will soon be back on the sideline again.
The Dow can rise to 15,000 if more investors return to buying stocks as the economy improves, Jeremy Siegel says, and return they should: "In a zero-interest-rate world, you don't get many opportunities like this." Despite a "good, not great" earnings season, "we don't need super-fast earnings growth to have a good market," as today's valuations make stocks "very, very attractive." [View news story]
They are right. There is still a tad bit of money available to steal from the sidelines (most people tho can barely afford food/gas, so forget about stocks). Here's the rules I'm following: 1. Don't short this market at any cost, until there are definite, clear technical signs of reversal. 2. Be very vigilant and nimble in your trading. I'm probably going to get out of all long positions by Dow 14K. I think that is a bank shot with the retail money they will gradually pull in... election year here and around the globe, so a major drop is a no-no.
The divergence between Dow transports and industrials is creating some angst among Dow Theory followers. The transportation index has fallen in eight of the last 11 trading days, declining 3.8%, while Dow industrials have risen in eight of the 11, rising 0.8%. “When you look under the hood there are some divergences that suggest the risk-on trade may be losing some momentum,” one strategist says. [View news story]
Since when does reality have a bearing on this market? Obama and Bernanke are going all out to prop this market up, and there will be a much, much larger divergence before this gig is up.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Turn In Housing? [View article]
Stan,
I agree that the job market is not nearly as sanguine as it is made to appear by the BLS numbers, but that said, I would say companies are slowly starting to hire more--at least over the last few months... this is just from anecdotal evidence which has been a surprisingly good leading indicator for me. By anecdotal, I am referring to things like increased job postings on major sites and talking to recent college and grad school graduates (friends) who have finally been able to find jobs (after many months or even up to 1 year of looking).
Now, this can change at any time. It is very much an ebb & flow, and corporations are still playing it close to the vest, but cash reserves are increasing and it is my guess that these companies would like to increase business slowly by putting this cash to work (hiring, for example).
David Gille attempts to explain the collapse in the 2X VIX ETN (TVIX -27.6%) even as the VIX ETF (VXX +2.7%) surges. Unlike ETFs, an ETN in certain instances can have little correlation to the index it is tracking, so selling/buying can drive it far from underlying value. The TVIX premium to NAV got far too high, and now is correcting. [View news story]
Also, all ETNs will eventually go to zero, so this is not news, but isn't that due to accumulation of decay? What is the near-term future of TVIX?
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Government spending is probably at least 70% of GDP growth, and since the bulk of that government money ultimately came from debt (which we have now decided we will finance thru printing fake money), the tax you speak of is dwarfed by the REAL tax on citizens--that of inflation.
It is this cataclysmic storm of inflation on the horizon that turn into the "tax" that ultimately breaks the camel's back.
Roger Lowenstein pens an epic love letter to Ben Bernanke in The Atlantic. "The left hates him. The right hates him even more. But Ben Bernanke saved the economy - and has navigated masterfully through the most trying of times." Whatever one's opinion of the man thankfully not yet being called "The Maestro," stuff like this tends to come a lot closer to market tops than bottoms. [View news story]
A few bulls switched over to the bearish side, according to the AAII sentiment survey for the week ended March 7. The percentage of bulls decreased by 2.1% to 42.4%, matched by an increase in the bears to 29%. Bullish sentiment remains well below the frothy 50%+ levels seen in early February. [View news story]
Back when the economy was actually starting to improve (in latter half 2011) the stock market tanked. Now, based on lagging data the market is going up? Meanwhile, there are nothing but ticking time bombs ahead and the market wants to still continue to go up? FED-induced manipulation. Greenspan was a stock market killer, continually raising interest rates as the stock market went up.. but Bernanke has done the opposite and sacrificed America's future solely to prop up the equity market. Years from now, millions of Americans will get hurt financially--many will perish--because of his actions today. Why has he not been arrested?
Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +227K vs. consensus of +215K, +284K (revised from 243K) in Jan. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours, inline. Average hourly earnings +0.1%. [View news story]
Bernanke will be hailed as a savior in the short run, but ultimately, America's financial system will be completely destroyed as a result of his actions. People found out years after Greenspan retired how much damage he actually helped bring about, and this guy Bernanke is far, FAR more dangerous.
Is IBM Fairly Valued At $200? Watson's Not Saying [View article]
Seriously tho, Watson is the greatest work of AI the public has ever seen.... it is still greatly inferior to the human mind in many respects, but for what it was designed to do, I think it rivals the Internet itself as a breakthru in information technology.
The only thing is, it would seemingly require a ton of new programming for each specific type of problem it is asked to solve. Yes, no, maybe?
McDonald's (MCD) same store sales rise 7.5% in February. Breakdown by region: +11.1% in U.S., +4% in Europe, +2.4% in Asia/South Pacific, Middle East, Africa. The company mentions Japan and the timing of the Chinese New Year as influencing the apparently weak Asia number. Shares -2.9% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
Markets Point To Economic Recovery In 2012 [View article]
...enjoy the RISING unemployment number that will be coming out tomorrow, because the market is acting like it either has no clue or doesn't care.
Stocks are undervalued at current levels, and more and more investors are realizing that, coming off the sidelines and back into the stock market, observes Abby Joseph Cohen. Using one particular metric, the S&P 500 is pricing in a 7% decline in corporate profits for each of the next five years. "That’s possible," Cohen says, "but it’s not likely." [View news story]
Until then, Wall Street will have to rape itself to death.
Buy AMD: It Can Thrive In The Face Of Intel's Dominance [View article]
AMD, on the other hand, seemed to run out of fresh ideas, choosing to parlay its rapid growth from 1998-2006 into to buying techonology, chiefly ATI. It hasn't worked out so well. I only see an opportunity for AMD to re-emerge if Intel takes its "eye off the ball". As before, AMD's potential for success rests more on Intel's potential for failure.
Gasoline Price Increases: Prelude To The Next Recession? [View article]
Spain's Fiscal Deficit Deepens: Attempt To Close Gap Through Austerity Would Cause Economic Collapse [View article]
The Dow can rise to 15,000 if more investors return to buying stocks as the economy improves, Jeremy Siegel says, and return they should: "In a zero-interest-rate world, you don't get many opportunities like this." Despite a "good, not great" earnings season, "we don't need super-fast earnings growth to have a good market," as today's valuations make stocks "very, very attractive." [View news story]
The divergence between Dow transports and industrials is creating some angst among Dow Theory followers. The transportation index has fallen in eight of the last 11 trading days, declining 3.8%, while Dow industrials have risen in eight of the 11, rising 0.8%. “When you look under the hood there are some divergences that suggest the risk-on trade may be losing some momentum,” one strategist says. [View news story]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Turn In Housing? [View article]
I agree that the job market is not nearly as sanguine as it is made to appear by the BLS numbers, but that said, I would say companies are slowly starting to hire more--at least over the last few months... this is just from anecdotal evidence which has been a surprisingly good leading indicator for me. By anecdotal, I am referring to things like increased job postings on major sites and talking to recent college and grad school graduates (friends) who have finally been able to find jobs (after many months or even up to 1 year of looking).
Now, this can change at any time. It is very much an ebb & flow, and corporations are still playing it close to the vest, but cash reserves are increasing and it is my guess that these companies would like to increase business slowly by putting this cash to work (hiring, for example).