Nolesince87

Nolesince87
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  • Dow 20K - A Halfway Update  [View article]
    The number doesn't matter. You cannot create wealth by creating more paper. Whether Dow hits 20K, 30K, or 50K, the only thing that is certain is that--without improvement in the core economic fundamentals--it has gone down when priced in terms of REAL dollars.

    The market is still nowhere near historic highs when inflation is considered.
    May 17, 2013. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Nagging Question About Stocks  [View article]
    Can you elaborate on your method of estimating 1.2 million bearish-minded "freaks"? Also, do you have any data to show that the 1.2 million smallest players in the market actually have more buying/selling power than just a handful of the largest players (I have "data" to support otherwise)? You would need to prove both before some of your other arguments could even be considered.
    May 17, 2013. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Time To Sell In May  [View article]
    It is a big mistake to use any data from ZH to make market decisions in the short-term or even intermediate-term. The divergence between macro data and the equity market has been going on far longer than the past 60 days, try maybe 4 years.

    The market won't crash until September, at the earliest, IMO. I have a pretty good guess at what the magical date is when that will happen. I base this guess not only on the projection of a confluence of macro and technical factors that are aiming for month #9, but also on the assumption that the market is manipulated, and the manipulators are very twisted, evil, mentally disturbed *word that rhymes with trucks*
    May 6, 2013. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3[View news story]
    ...in other words, not for a loooong time.
    Apr 29, 2013. 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. +5.0 expected, +7.4 previous. Production fell to -0.5 from +9.9. New Orders -4.9 from +9 - the first negative reading this year. Prices +2.5 vs. +19.1. Expectations -6.7 vs. +15.3[View news story]
    It's not quite as easy as you say. Market is hungry for that final inflationary leg that forcibly drags retailers in and major news that it has to wait longer for that to happen can sometimes call for a brief sell-off... "May" see that happen soon.

    Of course, the time to really sell and GTFO of the market is when it is reported that the economy is booming.
    Apr 29, 2013. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Doesn't Fear Inflation, But You Do  [View article]
    I disagree that the Fed does not see problems coming. They have the most access to knowledge and information about our economic metrics than any other entity on the planet.

    They know what they are doing--the only question is, who are they really working for? The day Apple pre-announced a miss on earnings last year, and as the stock market began to tumble, the Fed instantly began running its mouth, thru some media leak... they reassured the markets that even MORE liquidity was coming and the market quickly stopped its losses and began turning back up! That was no coincidence, lest you also believe the dozens of other similar incidents were all coincidence as well.
    Apr 29, 2013. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market  [View article]
    We are due for a seasonal correction, that like all the others, will be muted. Barring a new debt crisis market should resume its uptrend after that, but even with a new crisis, we will get commensurate liquidity by Fed to compensate.

    Make no mistake, Fed bond-buying money is being used in a roundabout way to buy US stocks. When Fed takes away the candy we are going aaalllll the way back to 2009 levels. However, that probably just won't happen UNTIL the economy really starts improving. We will need to see unemployment fall probably under 6% (not 6.5%), GDP surge, and corporations to start reporting improved top line growth... none of that happens until corporations actually start USING all that free Fed money....

    ....and when that happens you should see four things: 1) inflation 2) a surge of retail investors reading happy headlines (and having jobs now) 3) stock market start to sell-off, because of... 4) Fed not only shuts down QE but withdraws liquidity rapidly due to #1.

    I see a stock market sell-off happening 1-2 years down the line followed by years of stagnation.... when we finally get through that, a new bull market should emerge provided our national brain power has come up with new, innovative world-changing technologies
    Apr 17, 2013. 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer?  [View article]
    The author has written a great article that has forced me to really think about things in a new light--well this and some other pieces of information like the recent Bloomberg report of Paulsen being down another $300 million in gold investments.

    I won't go into it in detail, but as a former permabear, I am CONVINCED that this market is nowhere near done going up (altho it may be due for a little breather heading into May and then the summer). Surprisingly, it is for the very reasons the author has pointed out! I will elaborate later.
    Apr 13, 2013. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Bulls Are Becoming Wary: Can We Trust The Market Any Longer?  [View article]
    It doesn't have to rise FOREVER... it just has to rise long enough to break the necks of every bear. Remember that the next time you short.... when I started having nightmares of the market shooting up against me in the face of bad news, I stopped shorting and starting going long... haven't looked back since, but I also don't hold anything overnight because I know this is a ticking time bomb.
    Apr 13, 2013. 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Retail Sales: -0.4% vs. +0.1% expected, +1% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.4% vs +0.1% expected.  [View news story]
    I don't know why the GOP hates Obama so much... Republicans are supposed to be more well-to-do than lazy, mooching Democrats and their portfolios should be bursting at the seems.

    Obama has helped Wall Street more than any other President in history. Poor people think Obama is on their side when the record shows he has helped the rich become richer than ever.

    Are we really still the greatest nation on Earth when we have produced back-to-back incompetents as our Leaders for 8 years a piece?
    Apr 12, 2013. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -42K to 346K vs. 388K consensus, 385K prior (revised). Continuing claims -12K to 3.08M.  [View news story]
    This is what $5 Trillion PLUS $85 billion a month buys?
    Apr 11, 2013. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015.  [View news story]
    No clear indication that the economy is strong? Strong compared to what, Zimbabwe?
    Apr 10, 2013. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBS (CBS) says it had exploratory talks with cable operators about taking local stations signals off the air and moving them to cable. The dramatic threat is part of a measured response by major broadcasters to the disruption Aereo poses with its streaming model and potential partnership with Dish Network (DISH). Also exploring the nuclear option: Fox, Univision[View news story]
    Idiots. Their content will be stolen, streamed, and advertiser revenue will plummet. The cable companies are NOT their friends, they are the enemy because they enable unlimited amounts of bootlegging and illegal activities for about $50/month.

    Nobody needs 40Mbps downloads for web-browsing, email, or even streaming video.
    Apr 10, 2013. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from the minutes on the March FOMC meeting: Several members say if labor market conditions improve as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by the end of the year. The consensus projection is that inflation will be subdued through 2015.  [View news story]
    I don't understand. If they are signaling an end date very soon, as opposed to the prior belief that there was NO END until UE gets down to 5%--why is the market rallying?
    Apr 10, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilding stocks have been on a tear now for over a year now, with leaders like KB Home (KBH), PulteGroup (PHM), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) all racking up solid gains. With such a big move already underway in the sector, today's $200M IPO announcement by William Lyon Homes (WLH), along with the $602M Taylor Morrison (TMHC) IPO due out later this week, may be viewed by some contrarians as a sign of a top in the market.  [View news story]
    That would be a sign of a TOP in the market... now, all you have to do is show me a market?

    What we have now is a phony simulation of a market, and one that could go exponentially higher since it is being bought 4 days a week, every week, by private institutions using fake but FREE FED money!
    Apr 9, 2013. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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